Team GB medal hopes - Swimming

[RussB 189]

2 hours ago, TeamGB said:

I hope, they change the team limit. They changed the selection criteria for last years worlds during the national champs so you never know.

 

In terms of the team, this is who I would predict to make it based on current form.

 

Men's 50m Freestyle - (21.88 QT) - Ben Proud, Lewis Burras

 

Men's 100m Freestyle - (48.06 QT) - Matt Richards, Lewis Burras

 

Men's 200m Freestyle - (1:45.96 QT) - Tom Dean, Matt Richards

 

Men's 400m Freestyle - (3:45.43 QT) - None

 

Men's 800m Freestyle - (7:47.81 QT) - Dan Jervis

 

Men's 1500m Freestyle - (14:54.29 QT) - Dan Jervis

 

Men's 100m Backstroke - (53.68 QT) - Oliver Morgan, Luke Greenbank

 

Men's 200m Backstroke - (1:57.28 QT) - Luke Greenbank, Oliver Morgan

 

Men's 100m Breaststroke - (59.45 QT) - Adam Peaty, James Wilby

 

Men's 200m Breaststroke - (2:08.29 QT) - James Wilby

 

Men's 100m Butterfly - (51.56 QT) - James Guy, Jacob Peters

 

Men's 200m Butterfly - (1:54.97 QT) - James Guy??

 

Men's 200m IM - (1:57.49 QT) - Duncan Scott, Tom Dean

 

Men's 400m IM - (4:11.90 QT) - Max Litchfield

 

Men's 4x100m Freestyle - (3:13.04 QT) - Tom Dean, Duncan Scott, Matt Richards, Lewis Burras, Jacob Whittle

 

Men's 4x200m Freestyle - (7:07.40 QT) - Tom Dean, Duncan Scott, Matt Richards, James Guy, Joe Litchfield

 

Men's 4x100m Medley - (3:33.15 QT) - Oliver Morgan, Adam Peaty, James Guy, Matt Richards.

 

Women's 50m Freestyle - (24.65 QT) - Anna Hopkin

 

Women's 100m Freestyle - (53.55 QT) - Anna Hopkin, Freya Anderson

 

Women's 200m Freestyle - (1:56.85 QT) - Freya Anderson, Freya Colbert

 

Women's 400m Freestyle - (4.04.98 QT) - None

 

Women's 800m Freestyle - (8:25.84 QT) - Amelie Blocksidge??

 

Women's 1500m Freestyle - (16:01.95 QT) - Amelie Blocksidge, Fleur Lewis??

 

Women's 100m Backstroke - (59.89 QT) - Medi Harris, Lauren Cox

 

Women's 200m Backstroke - (2:08.91 QT) - Katie Shanahan, Honey Osrin

 

Women's 100m Breaststroke - (1:06.31 QT) - Angharad Evans, Kara Hanlon??

 

Women's 200m Breaststroke - (2:23.04 QT) - Angharad Evans??

 

Women's 100m Butterfly - (57.17 QT) - None (This time is quicker than the national record)

 

Women's 200m Butterfly - (2:07.96 QT) - Laura Stephens, Emily Large

 

Women's 200m IM - (2:10.62 QT) - Abbie Wood, Katie Shanahan

 

Women's 400m IM - (4:37.84 QT) - Freya Colbert, Katie Shanahan

 

Women's 4x100m Freestyle (3:36.40 QT) - Anna Hopkin, Freya Anderson, Lucy Hope, Abbie Wood, Evelyn Davies???

 

Women's 4x200m Freestyle (7:51.89 QT) - Freya Anderson, Freya Colbert, Abbie Wood, Lucy Hope, Medi Harris

 

Women's 4x100m Medley (3:56.89 QT) - Medi Harris, Angharad Evans, Harriet Jones, Anna Hopkin

 

Mixed 4x100m Medley (3:44.10 QT) - Medi Harris, Adam Peaty, James Guy, Anna Hopkin

 

 

Total - 14 Male + 17 Female (31)

 

Obviously some of these may be a stretch, but similarly there could be others who I have missed out, but I would expect the team to be around this number, maybe slightly higher depending on relay squads.

 

 

You don’t see Keanna making the team? She was so impressive last night. I assume she will be the butterfly female relay swimmer and may qualify via the 200 if not the 100. 

[RussB 189]

On the 30 limit I imagine if enough swimmers make a strong case to go by going the hard qualification times they will most likely extend it.

they need the relay depth to rest key swimmers to maintain the medal chances, and so if bolters make the time then I think you take them; these include:

Blocksidge (I’m not convinced Fleur lewis will be able to go a 16m 01, Amelie I imagine will win trials convincingly)

Evans/ Hanlon (whoever finishes 2nd in the 100)

Bird

Jervis

Mcinnes / Stephens (whoever comes 2nd in 200m at trials if 100m time isn’t made)

 

swimmers I have concerns over are Freya Anderson and Tom Dean… Tom hasn’t shown much since Worlds and Freya didn’t go to the Bath training camp in Oz… not sure what the story is there but she isn’t racing so perhaps injury concerns?

[RussB 189]

33 minutes ago, Orangehair43 said:

Can they fit enough for all the relays within 30? I can see one of the women medley relay getting the boot if they need to cut one or two people.

 

I think the issue with this is that the women’s 4x200 has made big steps forward lately and is genuinely competitive.

the 4x100m medley also gets interesting if you have Evans going a NR and McInnes making noise in the butterfly. A team of Cox , Evans, mcinnes, Hopkin is one I think we would go with.

leaves the 4x1 freestyle as the only relay I can imagine British swimming sacrificing.

[TeamGB 171]

The same 4x100 free that came 4th in Fukuoka

[Cinnamon Bun 896]

I think if they're gonna cut anywhere, it'll be on second place who only just scraped the time as they could make the case of not winning the national title being the reason for their exclusion. I also think if the likes of Evans and MacIness miss the standard by around a tenth, then I still think they'll get selected for the individual as they'll most likely use them for the relay and having them swim the individual could give them a feel for the event on their debits (I believe they did the same with Bird last year by letting him swim the 800 despite him only qualifying for the 400). 

[RussB 189]

14 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

The same 4x100 free that came 4th in Fukuoka

As I said, this is the problem with sacrificing any of the relays to make the 30 quota stick. Of the 3 female relays in Paris my personal view is that the 4x1 has the weakest chances. 

[Orangehair43 251]

The 4 x 100 is the first day. Not the best look to skip a relay on the first day due to an artificial quota particularly as the two solo finals that day won’t have any British entrants in the event nor one of the two evening semis. 

Edited March 9 by Orangehair43

[mpjmcevoy 362]

51 minutes ago, RussB said:

I think the issue with this is that the women’s 4x200 has made big steps forward lately and is genuinely competitive.

the 4x100m medley also gets interesting if you have Evans going a NR and McInnes making noise in the butterfly. A team of Cox , Evans, mcinnes, Hopkin is one I think we would go with.

leaves the 4x1 freestyle as the only relay I can imagine British swimming sacrificing.

Even a respectable 4x1 could probably be stitched together from swimmers likely to be there anyway - Harris does a decent 100 free, Hopkin, Anderson, Wood and Hope are all also likely to be there anyway. There may though be an issue of load management, especially around Freya Aderson and to a lesser extent Abbie Wood, but the same issue has arisen historically with James Guy and Duncan Scott, and may this time with Richards and Dean, and they still all got thrown in.

 

Basically the 3 men's relays, the mixed medley are the main event for GBR, with a punchers chance in the women's 4x2, and women's medley worth a punt as three of the four swimmers will have few other commitments. 

[TeamGB 171]

1 hour ago, RussB said:

As I said, this is the problem with sacrificing any of the relays to make the 30 quota stick. Of the 3 female relays in Paris my personal view is that the 4x1 has the weakest chances. 

 

Honestly I disagree, the 4x100m medley has to be a worse chance at a medal than the 4x100m free.

 

The best time for the 4x100m free would be

Anna Hopkin (52.5) - she split 52.00 in Tokyo, 

Freya Anderson (52.51) - 2023 Worlds

Abbie Wood (53.23) - 2020 Olympics

Lucy Hope (53.53) - 2023 Worlds

 

Cumulative time 3:31.77 - Would have won silver at 2023 Worlds

 

The best times for the 4x100m medley in a best case scenario

Cox/Harris 59 low (59.3)

Evans 1.05 mid (1:05.5) 

Maccines 57 mid (57.5) - Flat start PB 57.97

Hopkin 52.00

 

Cumulative time - 3:54.3 - Would have been 0.2 off Bronze in Fukuoka.

 

Personally, I think I am being more generous on the medley times than the free ones, so I can't see how the 4x100 free should not be the focus for British swimming.

[RussB 189]

28 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

 

Honestly I disagree, the 4x100m medley has to be a worse chance at a medal than the 4x100m free.

 

The best time for the 4x100m free would be

Anna Hopkin (52.5) - she split 52.00 in Tokyo, 

Freya Anderson (52.51) - 2023 Worlds

Abbie Wood (53.23) - 2020 Olympics

Lucy Hope (53.53) - 2023 Worlds

 

Cumulative time 3:31.77 - Would have won silver at 2023 Worlds

 

The best times for the 4x100m medley in a best case scenario

Cox/Harris 59 low (59.3)

Evans 1.05 mid (1:05.5) 

Maccines 57 mid (57.5) - Flat start PB 57.97

Hopkin 52.00

 

Cumulative time - 3:54.3 - Would have been 0.2 off Bronze in Fukuoka.

 

Personally, I think I am being more generous on the medley times than the free ones, so I can't see how the 4x100 free should not be the focus for British swimming.

Let's be honest, they are both long shots for a medal. Accordingly, we do disagree purely because for either to medal you will need a significant jump on entry times. I view there being more of a higher ceiling in the medley than I do the 4x1. Would require big jumps by Keanna and Evans, and I would hope Cox can crack 58s by the time Paris comes round.

Edited March 9 by RussB