Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions Road to Paris 2024

[dantm 32]

11 hours ago, TeamGB said:

Swimming - 3 Gold, 9 Medals - This is an event will plenty of medal chances but few nailed on golds. I think both mens Freestyle relays can win and I think another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM. Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free.

Overall, congratulations to Team GB for topping the medal tally and destroying both the USA and China 

 

Actually,I dont really know a huge amount about Equestrian and Judo,but all the very best anyways!

 

Swimming though, I'll bite and pick it apart!

"..I think both men's Freestyle relays can win..  "

 

4 x100m Free -Mens

The USA are stacked.

They have 10 current swimmers under 48 seconds,with 4 swimmers under 47.5

GB have Richards at 47.45 and another 2 under 48 seconds,plus Whittle at 48.0

GB will be fighting China and Australia for the minor medals

 

4 x 200m Free -Mens

Agreed!

Team GB will head in Paris as heavy favourites for Gold in the 4 x200m Free

 

"......another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM...."

 

Mens 100m Breastroke.

If Peaty is any where near his best, he will win.

Qin is currently at 57.6,which Peaty hasnt been there since 2021,but no doubt the recent British trials has indicated he is getting back.

 

Mens 50m Free

Already discussed,but McEvoy is the fastest this year and the fastest last year. Only a peak Caleb Dressel has been 0.02 quicker back in 2019

The US and Australian trials will sort this pecking order out very quickly.

 

Mens 200m Free

Popovic and now Martens are quicker than the British Record.There is a stack of swimmers sitting at 1.44 and could be the closest race at Paris.

Possible that GB could win Gold and possible that may not even medal.

 

Mens 200 IM

Who is going to beat Marchand in Paris?

Wang is still good and the Americans (Casais and even Michael Andrew) have all been quicker than Dean or Scott.

 

 

"......Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free...."

 

Men's Medley

Depends on Peaty but Bronze is possible.China and USA will fight this out.

 

100m Back

Not sure if you meant /men or Women here but

Womens -Dawson will be in a battle for Bronze with Kaylee and Regan expected to dominate.

Even Bronze will be tough.The US trials for that second spot will be a blood bath and even MOC swam 58.0 in Australia last week for laughs.

 

Mens:

Oliver Morgans 52.70 could get him into the final but I cant see a medal.

 

Mens 400m IM

With Marchand,Kalaiz,Foster and Clareburt,I'm not sure that GB will be challenging here for any medal.

 

Womens 400m IM

Same as the Men.There is a stack of current swimmers well ahead of the British record

McIntosh is untouchable.Katie Grimes has been 4.32 recently as has Jenn Forrester of Australia. Kaylee just swum 4.28 but likely not to swim it in Paris!

 

Womens 4 x 200m Free

Australia, USA and China by a long way!

Not sure how GB will even consider a medal here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dragon 1,777]

2 hours ago, dantm said:

I'm not a rowing fan,but looking at the 2023 Worlds where GB won 6 gold medals,it seems to include 2 Golds for Para Rowing?

 

 

Absolutely true but, on the other hand, 2 boats that didn't win gold at those championships have posted much improved performances so far this year.

Edited May 14 by Dragon

[ngyojiw 3]

14 hours ago, Vic Liu said:

China Prediction

 

1. Diving - 7 golds 12 medals - usually losing 1 gold just not sure which one yet

2. Table Tennis - 5 golds 7 medals - facing many challenges on men's single but still unlikely to drop the gold

3. Weightlifting - 5 golds 6 medals - men's 73kg Shi Zhiyong is not the favorite while other weights should be safe

4. Swimming - 4 golds 10 medals - chances from men's 100/200 breast, 200 IM, 100 free, women's 100 fly, 100 breast, men and mixed medley relay for golds

5. Shooting - 4 golds 10 medals - many chances for pistols and rifles events and some of them will get golds

6. Artistic Gymnastics - 4 golds 8 medals - almost sure men's rings and PB + one of women's BB/UB + one of men's AA/team

7. Badminton - 3 golds 6 medals - bigger chances for mixed double and women's double + maybe one of men's single/women's single/men's double

8. Boxing - 1 gold 3 medals - some random women's weights or men's 80kg may get one gold

9. Sprint Canoeing - 1 gold 3 medals - big chance for WC2 get gold and medal chances for WC1 and MC2

10. Trampoline - 1 gold 3 medals - equal chances for men‘s and women's to get gold but also high chance to make error

11. Artistic Swimming - 1 gold 2 medals - big chance for both golds but also high probability to make some error on some random routine

12. Taekwondo - 1 gold 2 medals - bigger chances for women's 57kg and also some slim chances for other weights

13. Athletics - 5 medals - medal chances for women's shot put/discus/hammer throw/race walking, men's long jump/triple jump but none of these are favorites

14. Wrestling - 3 medals - some medal chances for all participating women's weights and men's freestyle 57/125, greco 60/130

15. Sport Climbing - 2 medals - medals chances for men's and women's speed sport climbing but very unpredictable 

16. BMX freestyle - 2 medals - big medal chances for women's BMX freestyle but not favorite to win the gold

17. Breaking - 1 medal - big medal chance for women also some probability to win the gold

18. Track Cycling - 1 medal - medal chance for women's team sprint

19. Fencing - 1 medal - some chance for women's team/individual epee and very slim chance for women's individual foil

20. Rowing - 1 medal - medal chance for W4x also some gold probability

21. Rhythmic Gymnastics -1 medal - medal chance for group AA

22. Sailing - 1 medal -  slim medal chances for men and women's windsurfing and kite but very unpredictable 

23. Basketball - 1 medal - medal chance for women's team

 

Some other slim medal chances: Women's golf, Women's tennis single/double, Judo Women's 78/78+, Women's volleyball, Women's skateboarding street

 

Total 37 golds 91 medals

 37 Gold Medals is realistic ( line is only 33.5). Its probably tad conservative too.

 

Badminton, China to me is favourites for 5 gold. Its not like they need all to perform, its more like there has to be upset for them (and opponents outperforming) not to win the Gold especially with 2 participants each sector. SYQ, CYF , WangLiang, ChenJia, ZhengHuang are all favourites and their partner in crime, is no slouch too. An Se Young has been playing injured since AsianGames. She is superb last year but it took a toll on her young body playing too many games and she havent looked herself since AG. If i have to say, she wont even medal.

 

Artistic swimming, without ROC that has be 2 golds a lock.

 

Trampoline can win 2 golds.

 

Sports Climbing should be able to deliver 1 gold too. Indonesian climber will definitely screw up. I remember last year climb event where the Male makes a false start in Semi/Final.

 

Artistic Gymnastics and Shooting without ROC is a big help too.

[Epic Failure 180]

1 hour ago, dantm said:

Overall, congratulations to Team GB for topping the medal tally and destroying both the USA and China 

 

Actually,I dont really know a huge amount about Equestrian and Judo,but all the very best anyways!

 

Swimming though, I'll bite and pick it apart!

"..I think both men's Freestyle relays can win..  "

 

4 x100m Free -Mens

The USA are stacked.

They have 10 current swimmers under 48 seconds,with 4 swimmers under 47.5

GB have Richards at 47.45 and another 2 under 48 seconds,plus Whittle at 48.0

GB will be fighting China and Australia for the minor medals

 

4 x 200m Free -Mens

Agreed!

Team GB will head in Paris as heavy favourites for Gold in the 4 x200m Free

 

"......another Gold can come from. Men's 100m Breast,50m Free, 200m Free and 200m IM...."

 

Mens 100m Breastroke.

If Peaty is any where near his best, he will win.

Qin is currently at 57.6,which Peaty hasnt been there since 2021,but no doubt the recent British trials has indicated he is getting back.

 

Mens 50m Free

Already discussed,but McEvoy is the fastest this year and the fastest last year. Only a peak Caleb Dressel has been 0.02 quicker back in 2019

The US and Australian trials will sort this pecking order out very quickly.

 

Mens 200m Free

Popovic and now Martens are quicker than the British Record.There is a stack of swimmers sitting at 1.44 and could be the closest race at Paris.

Possible that GB could win Gold and possible that may not even medal.

 

Mens 200 IM

Who is going to beat Marchand in Paris?

Wang is still good and the Americans (Casais and even Michael Andrew) have all been quicker than Dean or Scott.

 

 

"......Other medal chances include Men's Medley, 100m Back, 400m IM, Women's 400m IM and 4x200m Free...."

 

Men's Medley

Depends on Peaty but Bronze is possible.China and USA will fight this out.

 

100m Back

Not sure if you meant /men or Women here but

Womens -Dawson will be in a battle for Bronze with Kaylee and Regan expected to dominate.

Even Bronze will be tough.The US trials for that second spot will be a blood bath and even MOC swam 58.0 in Australia last week for laughs.

 

Mens:

Oliver Morgans 52.70 could get him into the final but I cant see a medal.

 

Mens 400m IM

With Marchand,Kalaiz,Foster and Clareburt,I'm not sure that GB will be challenging here for any medal.

 

Womens 400m IM

Same as the Men.There is a stack of current swimmers well ahead of the British record

McIntosh is untouchable.Katie Grimes has been 4.32 recently as has Jenn Forrester of Australia. Kaylee just swum 4.28 but likely not to swim it in Paris!

 

Womens 4 x 200m Free

Australia, USA and China by a long way!

Not sure how GB will even consider a medal here.

In fairness, if everyone in sport simply performed to their previously established best times, sport would be very dull. Great swimmers can perform well at their trials and then get their taper wrong. It's not unheard of.

 

Andrew in the 200IM is a prime example that a fast time is not a guarantee of a championship performance when the pressure is on. On the other hand, who predicted Hafnaoui would win the 400m free title in Tokyo? Of the 900 people who entered Swimswam's prediction competition that year, nobody had him even finishing in the top 4.

 

So whilst some of your points are correctly identifying where are not a medal favourite, none of the predictions the other poster made are beyond the realm of possibility. The women's 4x200m free, for example, would only require a poorly timed takeover for GBR to be in with a shot of the podium (although they probably would still be fighting Canada for that spot).

 

I said the following after the trials in April, and I stand by it.

 

Quote

It's tough to get a full read until some of the other countries have their trials.

 

But this is where I would say we are at right now in the pool, in terms of prospective medals in Paris. Not predicting a particular colour for any of them.

 

Very High Chance

 

M 4x200m free

M 100m breaststroke - Peaty

 

Good Chance

 

M 4x100m free

M 200m free - Richards or Scott

M 200m IM - Scott

M 50m free - Proud

 

Outside Chance

 

W 400m IM - Colbert

M 400IM - Litchfield

M 200m IM - Dean

M 4x100m medley

Mx 4x100m medley

 

Shock Chance

 

W 4x200m free

W 4x100m free

M 100m free - Richards

M 100m back - Morgan

M 200m back - Morgan or Greenbank

W 200m fly - Stephens or MacInnes

W 200m back - Shanahan

W 200m IM - Wood or Colbert

 

Obviously, there's always shocks and surprises. The performance of other nations also will be key - you would expect the US and Aus to be strong always. But China are the great unknown. If they have a strong Olympics, our medal chances will be hit hard. If they don't, our chances open up in a bunch of events. Also, fitness is part of it - if Freya Anderson doesn't recover from her woes, our women's relay long shots become non-existant shots.

 

[Josh 7,755]

@ngyojiw which competition are you talking about? And what makes you think it’ll happen again? Whoever qualifies for Indonesia probably won’t be the favourites anyway, Samuel Watson has been on a tear lately. Either way being the favourite or not probably doesn’t matter for much, falls and slips happen all the time.
 

I’d be surprised if they won 5 golds in badminton with the competition they’ve had lately, even if all are the favourites.

[Vic Liu 1,635]

5 minutes ago, ngyojiw said:

 37 Gold Medals is realistic ( line is only 33.5). Its probably tad conservative too.

 

Badminton, China to me is favourites for 5 gold. Its not like they need all to perform, its more like there has to be upset for them (and opponents outperforming) not to win the Gold especially with 2 participants each sector. SYQ, CYF , WangLiang, ChenJia, ZhengHuang are all favourites and their partner in crime, is no slouch too. An Se Young has been playing injured since AsianGames. She is superb last year but it took a toll on her young body playing too many games and she havent looked herself since AG. If i have to say, she wont even medal.

 

Artistic swimming, without ROC that has be 2 golds a lock.

 

Trampoline can win 2 golds.

 

Sports Climbing should be able to deliver 1 gold too. Indonesian climber will definitely screw up. I remember last year climb event where the Male makes a false start in Semi/Final.

 

Artistic Gymnastics and Shooting without ROC is a big help too.

I am happy to see your prediction coming true. But it's the optimistic scenario for me rather than realistic. Shi Yuqi is among top lists together with Axelsen and Jonatan Christie at this moment. Chen Yufei somehow benefits from An and Yamaguchi's injuries but they are still powerful together with Carolina Marin. For men's double, I think the Korean and Indian pairs share almost same chances with Wang/Liang. So any of the names I mentioned win the gold I will not be surprised. I give 1/3+1/3+1/3 chances =1 gold.

 

Artistic Swimming is full of randomness because of the new scoring system and China just lost both golds in the nearest World Cup stage. So one gold is good for me.

 

Trampoline can win 2 golds on paper but there usually some accident may happen on Olympics especially sports by scoring. So China never win both golds since 2008 home OG.

 

I think Speed sport climbing women's gold will go for Poland. For men's side, China USA Indonesia all have chances. And China also likes false start. We have to wait and see.

 

I hope that our gold point on paper will come true but past experience tells me it's extremely hard.

[Josh 7,755]

11 minutes ago, Vic Liu said:

I am happy to see your prediction coming true. But it's the optimistic scenario for me rather than realistic. Shi Yuqi is among top lists together with Axelsen and Jonatan Christie at this moment. Chen Yufei somehow benefits from An and Yamaguchi's injuries but they are still powerful together with Carolina Marin. For men's double, I think the Korean and Indian pairs share almost same chances with Wang/Liang. So any of the names I mentioned win the gold I will not be surprised. I give 1/3+1/3+1/3 chances =1 gold.

You don’t think Tai Tzu-Ying is one of the favourites?

[Vic Liu 1,635]

3 minutes ago, Josh said:

You don’t think Tai Tzu-Ying is one of the favourites?

For me, she is not that competitive as she was. I would say An 30% Marin 25% Chen and Yamaguchi 20% Tai 5%. 

[ngyojiw 3]

42 minutes ago, Vic Liu said:

I am happy to see your prediction coming true. But it's the optimistic scenario for me rather than realistic. Shi Yuqi is among top lists together with Axelsen and Jonatan Christie at this moment. Chen Yufei somehow benefits from An and Yamaguchi's injuries but they are still powerful together with Carolina Marin. For men's double, I think the Korean and Indian pairs share almost same chances with Wang/Liang. So any of the names I mentioned win the gold I will not be surprised. I give 1/3+1/3+1/3 chances =1 gold.

 

Artistic Swimming is full of randomness because of the new scoring system and China just lost both golds in the nearest World Cup stage. So one gold is good for me.

 

Trampoline can win 2 golds on paper but there usually some accident may happen on Olympics especially sports by scoring. So China never win both golds since 2008 home OG.

 

I think Speed sport climbing women's gold will go for Poland. For men's side, China USA Indonesia all have chances. And China also likes false start. We have to wait and see.

 

I hope that our gold point on paper will come true but past experience tells me it's extremely hard.

Well, to me the optimistic is the realistic. I remembered during Covid, none expected China to reah Finals in all discipline. Then suddenly they just reached 5 Finals with an old ChenLong.

 

Well, to me the optimistic is the realistic as they are favourites hahaha. This time, all i see is 3 favourites and 2 Huge favourites. Therefore i have to say 5 gold is there for the taking. I am sure this is target set by the National as well and i hope my country get 1/2 gold as well from badminton. I have to say what i see.

 

ShiYuqi already won in this very arena in this year FrenchOpen. He can easily smash opponents whom you think can give him trouble like the recent ThomasCup.

 

CYF closest rival will be Marin imo. She is just a bull. I think it will be CYF-Marin- Yamaguchi though i feel GregoriaTunjung could be a dark horse (just beaten Yamaguchi) and i hope she can get a medal. Btw, many of these players are injury prone because they are nearing 30. Yamaguchi didnt play her last matches in UberCup so did AnSeYoung. I can see she is burnout.

 

MD will be the closest affair. However, i can only go with WR1.

 

There is nothing to say in WD and XD. I just visited Jieyang my ancestral hometown, which is close to ChenQingchen hometown. I will be rooting for her.

 

I would say the toughest to the easiest will be MD>WS>MS>XD>WD.

 

All in all, i see China getting 40 golds or more. I would be happy with that.

[nitinsanker 188]

 India   I will try to be as scientific/ disciplined as possible to avoid over estimating chances for india which I have done in both tokyo and the disaster ( for india) which was Rio... 

 

So first I set a minimum criteria for performance - world Championship medal this Olympic cycle or Asian Games gold / silver ( only for sports where asian standard is high) or world ranking top 3 .  After that try to a % chance to eliminate absolutes . If done then in alphabetical order 

 

1. Athletics 

 

Javelin : Neeraj chopra ( wch G- 23  S -22,  world rank 2 ) .... Medal chance -75% ... Gold chance - 50%

 

We have no one else, (not counting AG at all as level is overall low )

 

2. Archery... 

 

Men's team... Ranked 2 , also AG silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

3.  Boxing 

 

We have won 2G , 4 B in wch .... But this was AIBA with many boycotts... 

 

50 kg.... Nikhat ( double world champ) .... Medal chance... 75% , Gold chance... 50% ...

 

57 Kg.... Manisha who won the bronze in wch is not there , but the new girl parveen is there who has won a medal in wch in non Olympic weight .... Medal chance... 25% 

 

76 .... Lovlina .... Reigning world champ, AG silver,  Medal chance... 50% , Gold chance 25% 

 

 

Men's  ( we do not have a quota yet so this subject to them winning quota) 

 

51 - amit phangal.... Deepak bohria won wch bronze but it will be amit at the last qualifier and  i think he can win quota he is AG gold and world champ silver.... Medal chance 25% 

 

71 Nishant bohra... Wch bronze if he gets quota in last qualifier.... Medal chance 25%

 

4. Shooting 

 

We have won 21 quotas second after china but this is a sport where we have underperformed last two Olympics ... But will combine the events 

 

events.... Based on the criteria drawn 8 events meet them ....10M rifle ( M and W) , 50M 3 positions ( M and W) , mixed pistol , 10m pistol ( W), 25M pistol W, Skeet M ....  33% chance in each for medal, 15% for gold each event.... 

 

 

 

5. Wrestling 

 

50 kg W... Vinesh AG gold and 2 time bronze wch... Medal 50% medal 

 

53 kg W... Antim... Current world Championship bronze... 50% medal 

 

57 kg W.... Anshu silver in wch... 25% medal 

 

76 W - reethika, 56 M Aman do not meet criteria but since both are u23 Gold medallist can consider wch medal equivalent - 25% medal chance 

 

 

 

49 kg W .. Mirabhai chanu, world rank and world champ silver 2022 ... Medal chance... 50% ... Chances would be higher had she not been recovering from injury

 

Oops almost missed 

Badminton. . 

 

Men singles won 3 world Championship medals.... Medal chance... 25% 

 

Men doubles... World chmpionship medal and world rank top 3 .... Medal prospect - 50% and gold -25%

 

Total - Gold  - 2.5  ... Between 2-3

           Medals - 8.9 - between 8-9

 

Ha Ha....maybe gracenotes can steal my analysis 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 14 by nitinsanker