[OFF TOPIC] Movies & TV Series Thread

[vinipereira 3,240]

The Oscars are this sunday, so naturally here I am with my annual predictions post. Last year was very predictable, so much that I got 22/23 correct picks. This most certainly won't happen this year, as we finally have some exciting races across the board (Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress are very hard to predict). It's been some time we don't have a Best Picture winner that also wins 6 or more Oscars. This could happen this time if the Academy goes crazy for Everything Everywhere. Right now I'm predicting 6 wins, but I can see a scenario where it wins 8 (extremely optimistic) or just 4 awards.

 

Hopefully we get some surprise wins cause last year ceremony was kinda boring ("slap" fiasco aside). Almost managed to watch all the 54 nominated movies (including shorts), except for Avatar: The Way of Water, which had only dubbed sessions at the nearby theaters (and so far isn't available on streaming/VOD).

 

["will win" is my prediction / "could win" is my alternate prediction / "should win" is my personal ranking from what I've watched / "shoud have been nominated" is a way to remember other notable work].

 

Spoiler

Best Picture

WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once

COULD WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin

SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. Top Gun: Maverick; 4. The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. The Fabelmans; 6. Women Talking; 7. Elvis; 8. All Quiet on the Western Front; 9. Triangle of Sadness. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Aftersun

 

 

Directing

WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

COULD WIN: The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg

SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár, Todd Field; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert; 3. The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg; 4. The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh; 5. Triangle of Sadness, Ruben Östlund.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave, Park Chan-wook

 

 

Actor in a Leading Role

WILL WIN: Austin Butler, Elvis

COULD WIN: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

SHOULD WIN: 1. Paul Mescal, Aftersun; 2. Bill Nighy, Living; 3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale; 4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. Austin Butler, Elvis.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Franz Rogowski, Great Freedom

 

 

Actress in a Leading Role

WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett, Tár

COULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

SHOULD WIN: 1. Cate Blanchett, Tár; 2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; 4. Ana de Armas, Blonde; 5. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Danielle Deadwyler, Till

 

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

COULD WIN: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

SHOULD WIN: 1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; 3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; 5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Mark Rylance, Bones and All

 

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

WILL WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

COULD WIN: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

SHOULD WIN: 1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; 3. Hong Chau, The Whale; 4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth

 

 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

WILL WIN: Women Talking

COULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front

SHOULD WIN: 1. Living; 2. Women Talking; 3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; 4. Top Gun: Maverick ; 5. All Quiet on the Western Front.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Happening

 

 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once

COULD WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin

SHOULD WIN: 1. Tár; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. The Fabelmans; 5. Triangle of Sadness.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Close

 

 

Animated Feature Film

WILL WIN: Pinocchio

COULD WIN: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

SHOULD WIN: 1. Pinocchio; 2. Turning Red; 3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On; 4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; 5. The Sea Beast.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Apollo 10 1⁄2: A Space Age Childhood

 

 

Documentary Feature

WILL WIN: Navalny

COULD WIN: Fire of Love

SHOULD WIN: 1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; 2. Fire of Love; 3. All That Breathes; 4. A House Made of Splinters; 5. Navalny.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Territory

 

 

International Feature Film

WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

COULD WIN: Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

SHOULD WIN: 1. Close (Belgium); 2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); 3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland); 4. EO (Poland); 5. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany).

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave (South Korea) and Joyland (Pakistan).

 

 

Cinematography

WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front

COULD WIN: Elvis

SHOULD WIN: 1. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; 2. Tár; 3. All Quiet on the Western Front; 4. Elvis; 5. Empire of Light.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Top Gun: Maverick

 

 

Film Editing

WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once

COULD WIN: Top Gun: Maverick

SHOULD WIN: 1. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 2. Top Gun: Maverick; 3. Tár; 4. Elvis; 5. The Banshees of Inisherin.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Decision to Leave

 

 

Costume Design

WILL WIN: Elvis

COULD WIN: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris; 3. Elvis; 4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 5. Everything Everywhere All at Once.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Wonder

 

 

Production Design

WILL WIN: Babylon

COULD WIN: Elvis

SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. The Fabelmans; 3. Elvis; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

 

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

WILL WIN: Elvis

COULD WIN: The Whale

SHOULD WIN: 1. Elvis; 2. The Batman; 3. All Quiet on the Western Front; 4. The Whale; 5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Northman

 

 

Music (Original Score)

WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front

COULD WIN: Babylon

SHOULD WIN: 1. Babylon; 2. Everything Everywhere All at Once; 3. The Banshees of Inisherin; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front; 5. The Fabelmans.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Bones and All

 

 

Music (Original Song)

WILL WIN: "Naatu Naatu", RRR

COULD WIN: "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

SHOULD WIN: 1. "Naatu Naatu", RRR; 2. "Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick; 3. "Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 4. "This Is a Life", Everything Everywhere All at Once; 5. "Applause", Tell It Like a Woman.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "(You Made It Feel Like) Home", Bones and All

 

 

Sound

WILL WIN: Top Gun: Maverick

COULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front

SHOULD WIN: 1. Top Gun: Maverick; 2. The Batman; 3. Elvis; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Nope

 

 

Visual Effects

WILL WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water

COULD WIN: Top Gun: Maverick

SHOULD WIN: 1. Top Gun: Maverick; 2. The Batman; 3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; 4. All Quiet on the Western Front. Not watched: Avatar: The Way of Water.

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: RRR

 

 

Short Film (Animated)

WILL WIN: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

COULD WIN: My Year of Dicks

SHOULD WIN: 1. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It; 2. Ice Merchants; 3. My Year of Dicks; 4. The Flying Sailor; 5. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse.

 

 

Short Film (Documentary)

WILL WIN: Stranger at the Gate

COULD WIN: The Elephant Whisperers

SHOULD WIN: 1. Haulout; 2. The Martha Mitchell Effect; 3. How Do You Measure a Year?; 4. The Elephant Whisperers; 5. Stranger at the Gate.

 

 

Short Film (Live Action)

WILL WIN: An Irish Goodbye

COULD WIN: Le Pupille

SHOULD WIN: 1. Le Pupille; 2. The Red Suitcase; 3. An Irish Goodbye; 4. Ivalu; 5. Night Ride.

 

[vinipereira 3,240]

If I was a Oscar voter, this would be my top 10 (alphabetic order):

 

Aftersun
Bones and All
Close
Decision to Leave
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Happening*
Joyland
Living
Tár
The Wonder

 

Special Citation (Documentaries):
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
The Territory

 

*released in 2021, but watched after I did my top 10 list last year

 

 

Spoiler

Great Performances:

Anamaria Vartolomei, Happening
Bill Nighy, Living
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Eden Dambrine, Close
Franz Rogowski, Great Freedom

Hong Chau, The Menu
Jack Lowden, Benediction

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mark Rylance, Bones and All
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Rasti Farooq, Joyland
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave

[Olympian1010 7,977]

@vinipereira any other films from the last year or two outside your top 10 you’d recommend?

 

I want to get more into top quality artistic cinema. It provides a nice balance between international sports, writing, and other hobbies 

 

I welcome recommendations from any other users as well 

[vinipereira 3,240]

1 hour ago, Olympian1010 said:

@vinipereira any other films from the last year or two outside your top 10 you’d recommend?

I would say Apollo 10½, Catherine Called Birdy, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Fire Island, Funny Pages, Three Months, Top Gun: Maverick and probably The Northman would complete the top 20 after those 10 + 2 documentaries.

 

But of course there's much more as I try to watch as many movies as I can...

[Federer91 2,797]

It speaks volumes the below zero interest here for the Oscars, as the past year hit another milestone for awful movies. Last year ceremony had some glimmer of light in the movies, but this one wasn't so lucky. Though i had fun at Angela Bassett's skank face, when Jamie Lee Curtis won and her refusal to stand up, until she was the only one left and had to do it out of spite. 

[vinipereira 3,240]

On 3/11/2023 at 10:25 PM, vinipereira said:

Last year was very predictable, so much that I got 22/23 correct picks. This most certainly won't happen this year, as we finally have some exciting races across the board.

Got 17/23 correct picks this year, which is bad but not terrible. Really thought they would award Butler (biopic) and Blanchett (prestige drama), but I'm happy for Fraser and Yeoh too - although Blanchett's performance is one of the best of all time IMO. Really overestimated Elvis, predicting 3 wins when it won none, and underestimated The Whale (predicted none, won 2). Boring ceremony but good/aceptable wins overall.

[Monzanator 4,507]

Totally missed the bonfire of vanity show. Heard Jamie Lee Curtis won and Brendan Fraser? Whoa! A long way from that devil comedy with Liz Hurley, George from The Jungle and The Mummy 20+ years ago In the streaming services era does anyone actually watch majority of the nominated movies anymore?

[LDOG 2,418]

Does the academy ever publish the voting results? 

[heywoodu 15,148]

Actor Lance Reddick has apparently suddenly passed away at age 60, he was found dead at his home this morning....

 

RIP Phillip Broyles  

[Grassmarket 3,412]

Finally finished The Walking Dead after about 15 years.  Was a great show for a while but ended up going around in circles a lot. Still had some good moments.  Don’t like this idea that after 150 episodes or whatever of gore & extreme violence, what viewers want is a message of peace, love & brotherhood.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Grassmarket