Probably not helped by Livigno just being a massive pain in the ass in general in terms of 'reachability' (and the people there being convinced Livigno is the only place in the world that matters, but that's another thing entirely ).
16 women's teams, because 12 is a shitty number for a tournament - both because the forced continental representation will lead to it being a relatively weak tournament and because you can not make a decent tournament with 12 teams, you'll be forced to have the super awful 'best third placed teams' nonsense.
0 men's teams
Instead of a total of 28, we go to a total of 16 teams. We gain 12 x whatever number of players are in a men's team for sports where the Olympics are important, we have a women's tournament with a decent format and we get rid of having junior championships at the Olympics, win-win-win
Wouldn't 8 be better then, if 16 is too much (which, especially for the men, it is)? Then you can at least have a decent format, for which you need 4, 8, 16 or 32 teams (well, or 64 or 128 ).
But that's only a thing in the longer events, since one would generally go all-out in everything under 800 meters anyway.
For short/long hurdles, they should simply do the 100/110/400 meter hurdles twice, if they so badly want to have it as a double thing. Having all the hurdle specialists do flat races is fun for a bit, not gonna lie, but it makes the whole thing feel mostly like an exhibition event.
Besides, start this in a small stadium in the US instead of something big like this. Now it had the feel of a random training field somewhere in godknowswhere. Why does it need to be so massively American immediately, start a bit more...humble, and try and grow from there.
16 women's teams, because 12 is a shitty number for a tournament - both because the forced continental representation will lead to it being a relatively weak tournament and because you can not make a decent tournament with 12 teams, you'll be forced to have the super awful 'best third placed teams' nonsense.
0 men's teams
Instead of a total of 28, we go to a total of 16 teams. We gain 12 x whatever number of players are in a men's team for sports where the Olympics are important, we have a women's tournament with a decent format and we get rid of having junior championships at the Olympics, win-win-win
Oh, right, there is Hirscher But I think that's unlikely as well, given his injury that kept him out of almost the entire season and his results before that which were nowhere near what he would need to qualify....I highly doubt it. It'd be cool, but I doubt it.
IIRC this is how early Korea always does Olympic selections for short track. It's actually a small part of why Ahn Hyun-soo / Viktor An went from to , he didn't have a chance to qualify for the 2010 Olympics because of an injury he suffered in 2008.
Nothing too realistic. To be fair, rumours of Verstappen going to team X or Y (mostly Mercedes and Aston Martin) have been going on for years, I'm still expecting him to sit out his entire contract with Red Bull
One would expect Vasseur leading the team to at least take away some of the typical Italian chaos in these kind of things, but judging by the rainstorm of strategies and confusing moments....nah, not really
Totallympics wont and cant die. 14 years old tradition, with established users, Sindo wont give up, i'm sure.
Same drop in posts happened after London, after Rio, after Tokyo.
Nothing to worry about.
Totallympics is strong as it ever was.
McLaren and Mercedes are simply better, Ferrari is more inconsistent but should be better...and yeah, with Verstappen being the only one able to drive this car for real, that's gonna be tough. They won't magically find another driver who can (I mean, Lawson is not at all a bad driver, Tsunoda is definitely excellent as well and Hadjar, who has lots of raw pace, would probably face the same issue), and just making the entire car competitive for two drivers after at least two years where it's just been tough isn't gonna happen neither...
Oh well, as long as at least the podium riders are within a few seconds of each other on the track, it's at least something
Milano-Cortina 2026 Quota Simulation: 2024-25 Data Edition
Hello fellow Totallympians and welcome to another quota simulation. This time, the focus has shifted over to the winter Olympics. There's still a ski mountaineering world cup and some a few world championships to go but I thought I would post this while everyone is still in winter sports mode. I'll post minor updates if any data changes over the next month but I don't there'll be many changes. There's a few things to note before we begin.
Total # of NOC's
Overall, we have a total of 88 NOC's that are qualified/projected to qualify for the Olympics. This would represent a decrease of 4 NOC's from the 91 nations in Beijing although Russia and Belarus were competing separately then. On the other hand, with Russia/Belarus being limited to how many sports and how many athletes they can qualify, many of the major winter sports nations are projected to have their largest team ever.
Russian/Belarusian athletes
Speaking of Russia and Belarus, they are included in this simulation and just like in 2024, it was very annoying to factor them in considering they didn't compete in competitions in the last year at all (besides ski mountaineering). I've only included these athletes in the skating sports and ski mountaineering. The ISU has already announced a pathway for Russian/Belarusian athletes to qualify and neutral athletes are already competing in the ski mountaineering competitions. Russia was easy to simulate since it was safe to assume that one athlete would qualify in each event. Belarus was a bit harder and involved me looking at individual times/scores for their athletes this year. At the end of the day, I decided to include Belarusians in women's singles and pairs for figure skating and the men's 500m & 1000m along with all of the women's events in speed skating. All of the women's speed skating events may be a bit too generous but that was how it was in 2022.
Total # of athletes
In total, 2874 athletes are projected to qualify from this simulation. This is despite the athlete cap being at 2900. There are a few reasons for this discrepancy.
Bobsleigh: Only 162 of the maximum 170 quotas were used.
Curling: Only 109 of the maximum 120 quotas were used. This is due to certain players being simulated to play in both the mixed doubles and 4 person events resulting in them taking up two quotas.
Figure Skating: The additional 5 quotas allowed for the team event were used here. After simulating the final qualifying event, only Canada, France, Georgia, Italy and the USA had full teams so I gave an additional quotas to Great Britain in men's singles, Japan in ice dance, and South Korea in Pairs.
Freestyle Skiing: Only 277 quotas were used here compared to the maximum 284 quotas. The women's halfpipe looks like it will have trouble filling up their 25 quotas as only 23 quotas were used and I believe 5 athletes simulated currently do not have the required amount of FIS points to be eligible. Men's aerials and women's ski cross originally had enough athletes to fill up the allotted quota. However, Canada and the USA were over the maximum limit so after simulating rejected quotas, those events didn't have enough athletes to fill the allotted quotas and women's aerials just made it. Henry Sildaru (EST) is also projected to qualify in both men's halfpipe and slopestyle/big air.
Luge: Only 105 of the maximum 106 quotas were used here because Wolfgang Kindl (AUT) is projected to qualify in both men's singles and men's doubles
Snowboarding: Only 237 of the maximum 238 quotas were used here. Cody Winters (USA) is projected to qualify in both PGS and snowboard cross.
In addition, there are also 3 athletes expected to compete in multiple sports: Phillip Bellingham (AUS) in cross-country skiing and ski mountaineering, Ester Ledecka (CZE) in alpine skiing, and snowboarding, and Arianna Fontana (ITA) in short track and speed skating. Please let me know if there's any other possible athletes that could also be in this list.
Internal qualification procedures
Internal qualification procedures for countries like the Netherlands and New Zealand WERE NOT taken into account this time for the sole reason because it's fun seeing the Netherlands have an athlete in Nordic Combined
Differences from the FIS quota simulations
If you have a look at the FIS quota simulations on their webpages for alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, freestyle skiing, and snowboarding, you'll notice there are some differences.
Alpine Skiing: NOC's with a man or woman that hasn't qualified yet were taken into account. If the athlete hasn't had the required amount of races to qualify but is averaging the necessary amount of points to qualify, I simulated them as qualified (e.g. Morocco).
Cross-Country Skiing: FIS only simulated 138 quotas in each gender. I reallocated the remaining 10 quotas per gender based on the Olympic nations' ranking. There is a clause that if an unqualified NOC scores 300 points or less in a world cup race next season, they can qualify. However, that is very unlikely to happen (unless Russia and Belarus are invited back) since there are already athletes from qualified NOC's competing in World Cup races that get lapped.
Freestyle Skiing: I took into account Canada and the USA rejecting quotas since they were both initially over the 32 athlete quota limit. I had Canada rejecting 2 quotas in women's aerials, 1 each per gender in moguls, 1 in men's halfpipe, and 2 in men's slopestyle/big air. I had the USA rejecting 1 quota in men's aerials, 1 in men's ski cross, and 2 in women's ski cross.
Snowboard: Two athletes in women's snowboard cross were not eligible to qualify and were replaced with athletes on the reserve list that were eligible.
Speaking of athlete eligibility, there were some athletes that were simulated by FIS that didn't meet eligiblity requirements. I decided that if there was an eligible athlete on the reserve list, then the ineligible athlete would be replaced but if there wasn't an eligible athlete on the reserve list, I would keep the ineligible athlete in the quota list (e.g. Vanuatu in freeski halfpipe).
Anyways, that's enough talking. Let's begin! The numbers in brackets represent the change from the NOC's athlete total at Beijing 2022.
Please comment if you have any questions, thoughts or observations.
Nothing. Which simply means one thing: don't make a 'set' of races if there aren't enough events for that.
It's like having this for field events, coming up with the set of events called "vertical jumps without extra equipment" and since that only means the high jump, they just add the discus throw as well.
Just have the 100/110/400m hurdles as an event, instead of having the flat versions of them in the same set (especially considering those distances are also already part of another set anyway).
Just finished watching. Let's see if they manage to improve the format for next time, this was arguably the biggest flop I've seen in terms of athletics events....I don't mean the races themselves, the few events that were there were fine, but man this was mostly a waiting game. Glad HBO has it here, so it was easy to skip through the many, many, many minutes of nothing. This was sort of like an undressed Diamond League evening.
If they do this within one hour instead of two and also create a Grand Slam Field, who knows, it may become more interesting.
"Good" news for you, FIS updated the reallocation queue. It is now simply the Round 4 of the "remaining quota places" as it is stated in the qualification rules, not the continuation where it stopped previously. Brazil moved up in the queue up to 19th spot for women.
If it was a country-wide thing, one would assume all users from the country would have the same issue...odd, I'm very curious what will one day turn out to have been/be the problem.
But that wouldn't explain one Argentinian user being unable to connect, while another had no issue (@konig), would it? Unless the latter might have been using a VPN maybe?
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