The main Italian sports newspaper, La Gazzetta dello Sport, predicted 13 medals (4-5-4) in their preview on 9th February. I'm not subscribed to their digital edition, so here's a picture. They have been quite accurate until now in guessing the medallists
https://imgur.com/a/clyqp
(their predicted medallists:
Moioli, Fontana, Brignone, team sprint,
Goggia, Paris, short track Relay, Wierer, Lollobrigida,
Tumolero, biathlon mixed Relay, Fischnaller, Kostner)
Windisch won a medal instead of Wierer and Pellegrino won it individually and not in the team sprint, but you can see that even Tumolero was an expected medallist.
My point is: many expected these results in Italy, even the NOC president set a goal of "more than 10 medals, 3 golds".