CCB

That is some true optimism, I like it! You could work for Gracenote.
 
I predicted 2 medals in swimming (between Van Rouwendaal, Weertman and Kamminga) and 2 in athletics (between Hassan, Visser and Bol). I already considered those optimistic. Hassan feels especially unpredictable. Of course I hope she can repeat her Doha 2019 dominance, would be amazing for her.
 
Also a small nitpick, Bol will only run 400 m hurdles and 4x400 m in Tokyo, at least that was her position after the indoor season. And I'm not sure if Vetter is qualified, because she DNFed the Doha 2019 heptathlon. I think Götzis in May is her last shot.

I don’t know what medals you already predicted, but in swimming/athletics a super optimistic prediction could look like this:
Swimming:
2 x Kamminga (100 and 200 breast)
Toussaint (100 back)
Kromowidjojo (50 free)
Weertman (10 km Open water)
Van Rouwendaal (10 km Open water)
 
Athletics:
Schippers (200 m)
2 x Bol (400 m and 400 m hurdles)
Women‘s 4x400 m relay
2 x Hassan (5000 m and 10000 m)
Visser (100 m hurdles)
Vetter (heptathlon)

And here I thought my 33 medals was the optimistic end of the range. What an absurd Gracenote prediction!
 
Now that I see my post again I realise I forgot a gold medal for Epke Zonderland if I could pick and choose 8 golds. That is clearly a mistake! To fix that, our rowing team will have to do with only silvers and bronzes in my version of the Games.

Looks like all these predictions we can find online are really stupid.
 
We have to do it by ourselves ;-)

People at Gracenote:
"Hey, we don't have enough data about recent competitions for this event, what shall we do?"
"Give one more medal to the Netherlands, nobody will notice it"

I don't have much to add really, looks like a solid prediction. I made my version with pessimistic-optimistic ranges:
 
Archery: 0-1
Athletics: 0-2 - no idea what Hassan's form is, feels like in a good week she wins 2 golds and in a bad week she doesn't even run. Hopefully Femke Bol or Nadine Visser can surprise the American competition for a medal as well, even a bronze would be awesome.
Cycling road: 1-2 - a gold for Van der Breggen or Van Vleuten in the road race would be amazing. As a farewell race for AvdB or as a redemption after the Rio fall for AvV.
Cycling track: 3-5 - no competitions to really judge, but in addition to the men's sprint and omnium, I hope there is also a medal chances in the keirin (m) and madisson (m/w) events.
BMX: 1-2 - no clue how everyone is doing in this sport, but the Smulders sisters, Kimmann and Van Gendt were usually all medal contenders.
Mountainbike: 1 - the world cups this spring will have to show how Van der Poel stands in the MTB field. If he has a bad day, there is still Milan Vader and Anne Terpstra that can potentially ride top 3.
Field hockey: 1-2
Artistic gymnastics: 0-1 - another Epke Zonderland gold would be such an amazing story
Handball: 0-1
Judo: 1-2
Rowing: 3-5
Sailing: 3-4 - in addition to RS:X men, 470 women and 49erFX women, there should also be chances in either RS:X or Laser Radial women I think?
Swimming: 0-2 - one medal in open water swimming and hopefully one by Arno Kamminga (m breaststroke) or Kira Toussaint (w backstroke)
Suprise medal: 1-3 - these are always the most fun! Some candidates that I haven't mentioned yet are Football women's team or maybe Keet Oldenbeuving (skateboard). I also noticed I forgot Nouschka Fontijn, but since I have never seen a boxing match in my life, I'll consider her a surprise medal.
 
Total: 15-33
 
As ranges go, it would end up somewhere in the middle around that 20-25 mark. Hopefully with 8 golds like in Rio.
If I could pick and choose, I'd go with: Anne van der Breggen (cycling road), 3x Harrie Lavreysen (track cycling team sprint, sprint and keirin), Mathieu van der Poel (mtb), field hockey women, Kiran Badloe (sailing RS:X) and a rowing boat.
 
Wishful thinking, I know! With a thread like this, I just can't wait for the games to start.

As I've said earlier in the thread 25 medals in Sydney is our highest tally ever. Even if we are doing well the past two years, 40 is an exaggeration. CCB's prediction is realistic, even if I am a bit more optimistic and hopeful for a surprise medal every now and then. I think he is also right that other countries are catching up in track cycling and rowing the past year.

I really hope we can reach the 25 medal record we set in Sydney 2000, considering the recent success in (track) cycling, sailing and rowing among others. That's probably optimistic, but over 20 medals should be a realistic goal.
 
I'll try a sport-by-sport overview with best and worst case guesses tonight. @CCB and @heywoodu will probably be able to correct me on many sports though.

Dutch  trials:
Femke Heemskerk officially qualified for the 50 free (24.28) instead of Valerie van Roon. 
Ranomi Kromowidjojo with a fast 24.11.
 
In the 100 butterfly Nyls Korstanje (51.93) missed his Olympic qualification by 0.01. There won't be Dutch starters in the 100 butterfly 

Eindhoven Qualification Meet
 
200m backstroke
 
2.09:72 Sharon van Rouwendaal
2.10:02 Kira Toussaint
 
Toussaint initially didn't want to participate in the 200m, but she is quoted in the Dutch news article about the 200m: "I had a bet with my coach. I jokingly told him: if I swim the Olympic standard, I'll paint your eyebrows. So that's going to happen today."
 
There is also an interesting battle going on for the 50m freestyle (w) ticket. The backstory is Femke Heemskerk missed the previous qualification meet due to quarantine and for a long time it wasn't certain if there would be another chance for Heemskerk. Valerie van Roon qualified behind Kromowidjojo in the previous tournament. Now Heemskerk has already beaten Van Roon's time in the series, finals are later today.
 
 

This week will be the week of truth for me. Wednesday I am officially going to ask for time off during the Olympics. Because I don't have a replacement within the company (a new job), I am a bit afraid of the answer. Otherwise I have to watch sports at night and work during the day (thank God we work from home most of the time ). Then it will be two tough weeks.

We have a saying here: "It's harder to get to the Olympics, than to compete at the Olympics." And you can say that to individual sports as well.
 
It's a very thin line on how to find the perfect balance of strength and presence. As a fan, i wouldn't want my team/athlete to go to the OG and compete yet again with only the same European teams/athletes that we always play.  I'm much more interested in the rare times we play against a non-European country, because it's a luxury for us.  
 
That being said, many qualification systems have been preposterous for years and screwing great teams, outside the representation criteria. Continental qualifiers should remain, but they should never, NEVER be after the World qualifier. (prime example volleyball, every single cycle..) They should always be the first ones and then let the best of the rest have a fair shot at a quota.
 
Also, one thing that i never see being mentioned is the damn team host quota. With only 12 teams it's completely unnecessary to give a free pass everywhere, just because you are the host. Given that the OG are hosted only by big countries, it's an almost given that they would qualify teams either way. It won't make or break the interest, if they don't have a place in every single sport, in every gender. 
 
16 teams would be the best option for enough representation and more strong teams not getting screwed, but we all know, that is the IOC nightmare. They would prefer to have 50 sports with 10 people, not named athletics and swimming. 

Draw for the handball tournament is 1st of April. 
 
Incomprehensible that organiser Japan has the prerogative to assign itself to a group of their choice, after 10 of the 12 team are drawn into a group. I think it's unfair.

Individual quotas in Men's Épée
 
1.  Gergely Siklósi - Q Europe
 
4.  Masaru Yamada - Q Asia
 
7.  Bas Verwijlen - Q Europe
 
9.  Ruben Limardo Gascon - Q America
 
13.  Ruslan Kurbanov - Q Asia
 
17.  Houssam Elkord - Q Africa

Unless I am mistaken, I think he will get the 2nd European quota if both Russia and Ukraine will qualify tomorrow. 

We lost winning match against Netherlands 

I wouldn't mind at all if the WCH short track results were copy pasted into Beijing 2022 after that display by Schulting 

But Bol is only 21yo and has a much earlier start into stardom than Schippers. She can definitely dominate the European 400m scene during the next decade and who knows what she does in Tokyo? Will she enter both 400m hurdles and 400m flat?
 
I have to say I can't tell a difference between the Dutch women's relay other than Bol being the tallest. They all kinda look the same

John Heymnans  steps off the track, has a Superstar Rating of only 0.032, so can safely be DQFed.

So are they going to re-run the women’s 3000m with Mišmaš & Vasteburg reinstated?  Applying the rules might or might not be ridiculous, but having one rule for superstars & another for ordinary athletes definitely is.

The three semi finals of the men's 400m have just been won by three Dutch athletes.
 
Now watch them finish 4th, 5th and 6th in the final. 

Team Netherlands  
 
Men
Joris van Gool (60m) Raphael Bouju (60m) Liemarvin Bonevacia (400m) Jochem Dobber  (400m) Tony van Diepen (400m) Thijmen Kupers (800m) Djoao Lobles (800m) Jurgen Wielart (800m) Koen Smet (60m Hurdles) Bram Anderiessen (1500m) Valentijn Weinans (1500m) Mahadi Abdi Ali (1500m) Mike Foppen (3000m) Menno Vloon (polevault) Pieter Braun (heptathlon) Rik Taam (heptathlon) Ramsey Angela (4x400 relay) Nout Wardenburg (4x400 relay)  
Women
Jamile Samuel (60m) Naomi Sedney (60m) Femke Bol (400m) Lieke Klaver (400m) Lisanne de Witte (400m) Suzanne Voorrips (800m) Britt Ummels (800m) Bregje Sloot (800m) Nadine Visser (60m Hurdles) Zoë Sedney (60m Hurdles) Maureen Koster (3000m) Jip Vastenburg (3000m) Jessica Schilder (shot put) Nadine Broersen (pentathlon) Marit Dopheide (4x400 relay) Andrea Bouma (4x400 relay) Eveline Saalberg (4x400 relay)

Not yet, but there are rumours ... 

The results of the last World Cup are indeed distorted. Mainly due to the lack of Miho Takagi  , Graeme Fish   and Zhongyan Ning  . Below I indicate per distance which changes I expect.
 
Women:
500 - We missed Nao Kodaira  , but the question is how good she still is. She seems to have passed her peak. Your prediction based on the WCH seems realistic.
 
1000 - We missed Miho Takagi  , she is the big favourite in the medium distances. She will fight with Bowe  en Leerdam  for the gold. 
 
1500 - We missed Miho Takagi  , pretty sure she will win this. Wiklund  was a very unexpected winner. Next year I expect Bowe  , Wüst  and Golubeva  for the silver and bronze medal.
3000 - We missed Miho Takagi  and Ayano Sato  . Still I think the favourites for the medals are De Jong  , Schouten  , Wiklund  , Voronina  and Sablikoba  .
5000 - We missed no one. Big fight next year between Schouten  , Sablikova  , Weidemann  , Wiklund  and Voronina  . Reigning Olympic champion Esmee Visser  may come back next year.
Pursuit: Japan will win the gold. 100% sure.
 
Men:
500 - We missed Tatsuya Shinhama  , many other Japanese sprinters and Tingyu Gao  . They can change the podium, although Russia remains a favorite.
1000 - We missed Zhongyan Ning  , who will win a medal in front of his home crowd. Again the Russians are favorite, although I'm not pretty sure if Kulizhnikov  may start in connection with his doping history.
1500 - We missed Zhongyan Ning  , no way the Dutch will get a clean sweep. Anyway, Nuis  and Krol  remain the other favorites.
5000 - We missed Graeme Fish  . Normally he fights with Van der Poel  and Roest  for the gold.
10000 - We missed Graeme Fish  and TJ Flowers  , will be exciting to see them compete with Van der Poel  .
Pursuit: Japan becomes better and better, I expect a close battle with Norway, Netherlands, Canada and Russia. 
 
Mass start: unpredictable!
 

and I want Britons to be cancelled, instead...
 
you should stop trolling around...
 
this is a sport forum, made mainly of true sport lovers who want the Games to go on...so, it really looks that this is not the right place for you...