Swimming Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games

[JoshMartini007 2,547]

Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations.

[Topicmaster1010 4,252]

Continuing from my last post:

 

Women's 50m Freestyle

 

 Sarah Sjoestroem

 Cate Campbell

 Simone Manuel

 Pernille Blume

 Bronte Campbell

 Michelle Coleman

 Mariia Kameneva

 Anna Hopkin

 Ranomi Kromowidjojo

 Liu Xiang

 Abbey Weitzeil

 Femke Heemskerk

 Charlotte Bonnet

 Wu Qingfeng

 

Women's 100m Freestyle

 

 Simone Manuel

 Cate Campbell

 Sarah Sjoestroem

 Emma McKeon

 Mallory Comerford

 Taylor Ruck

 Michelle Coleman

 Femke Heemskerk

 Anna Hopkin

 Charlotte Bonnet

 Freye Anderson

 Siobhan Haughey

 Ranomi Kromowidjojo

 Federica Pellegrini

 Pernille Blume

 Mariia Kameneva

 Penny Oleksiak

 Yang Junxuan

 Beryl Gastaldello

 Signe Bro

 Zhu Menghui

 Rika Omoto

 Barbora Seemanova

 Lidon Munoz del Campo

 

Women's 200m Freestyle

 

 Federica Pellegrini

 Ariarne Titmus

 Emma McKeon

 Sarah Sjoestroem

 Siobhan Haughey

 Yang Junxuan

 Katie Ledecky

 Simone Manuel

 Charlotte Bonnet

 Femke Heemskerk

 Penny Oleksiak

 Rio Shirai

 Taylor Ruck

 Veronika Andrusenko

 Barbora Seemanova

 Katinka Hosszu

 Valeriia Salamatina

 

Women's 400m Freestyle

 

 Ariarne Titmus

 Katie Ledecky

 Leah Smith

 Ajna Kesely

 Wang Jianjiahe

 Li Bingjie

 Katinka Hosszu

 Kiah Melverton

 Simona Quadarella

 Veronika Andrusenko

 Anna Egorova

 Sarah Kohler

 Delfina Pignatiello

 Mireia Belmonte

 Holly Hibbott

 Leonie Beck

 

Women's 800m Freestyle

 

 Katie Ledecky

 Wang Jianjiahe

 Simona Quadarella

 Ariarne Titmus

 Leah Smith

 Sarah Kohler

 Kiah Melverton

 Ajna Kesely

 Mireia Belmonte

 Delfina Pignatiello

 Leonie Beck

 Hou Yawen

 Miyu Namba

 Martina Caramignoli

 Anna Egorova

 Tjasa Oder

 Julia Hassler

 Jimena Perez Blanco

 Yukimi Moriyama

 Beril Bocekler

 

Women's 1500m Freestyle

 

 Katie Ledecky

 Simona Quadarella

 Sarah Kohler

 Wang Jianjiahe

 Delfina Pignatiello

 Ashley Twichell

 Ajna Kesely

 Maddy Gough

 Kiah Melverton

 Mireia Belmonte

 Martina Caramignoli

 Boglarka Kapas

 Tjasa Oder

 Waka Kobori

 Zhang Ke

 Yukimi Moriyama

 Lea Boy

 Jimena Perez Blanco

 Anastasiia Kirpichnikova

 Kristel Kobrich

 Lara Grangeon

 Julia Hassler

 Tamila Holub

 Beril Bocekler

 Mackenzie Padington

 Viviane Jungblut

 Emma O'Croinin

 Diana Duraes

 Marlene Kahler

 

Women's 100m Backstroke

 

 Regan Smith

 Kylie Masse

 Taylor Ruck

 Minna Atherton

 Phoebe Bacon

 Margherita Panziera

 Kaylee McKeown

 Kira Toussaint

 Mariia Kameneva

 Daria Vaskina

 Katinka Hosszu

 Natsumi Sakai

 Georgia Davies

 Fu Yuanhui

 Simona Kubova

 Laura Riedemann

 Chen Jie

 Kathleen Dawson

 Beryl Gastaldello

 Federica Pellegrini

 Hoi Shun Stephanie Au

 

Women's 200m Backstroke

 

 Regan Smith

 Margherita Panziera

 Kylie Masse

 Kaylee McKeown

 Taylor Ruck

 Minna Atherton

 Katinka Hosszu

 Lisa Bratton

 Liu Yaxin

 Katalin Burian

 Rio Shirai

 Chloe Golding

 Africa Zamorano Sanz

 Peng Xuwei

 Jessica Fullalove

 Anastasiia Avdeeva

 Ali Galyer

 Daria Ustinova

 Lena Grabowski

 Natsumi Sakai

 Tatiana Salcutan

 

Women's 100m Breaststroke

 

 Lilly King

 Yuliya Efimova

 Annie Lazor

 Reona Aoki

 Tatjana Schoenmaker

 Anna Belousova

 Martina Carraro

 Arianna Castiglioni

 Kierra Smith

 Yu Jingyao

 Jessica Vall Montero

 Molly Renshaw

 Miho Teramura

 Tes Schouten

 Fanny LeCluyse

 Julia Sebastian

 Jessica Hansen

 Abbey Harkin

 Kayla van der Merwe

 Alia Atkinson

 

Women's 200m Breaststroke

 

 Yuliya Efimova

 Annie Lazor

 Lilly King

 Tatjana Schoenmaker

 Ye Shiwen

 Sydney Pickrem

 Evgeniia Chikunova

 Kelsey Wog

 Molly Renshaw

 Kanako Watanabe

 Fanny LeCluyse

 Marina Garcia Urzainqui

 Kaylene Corbett

 Francesca Fangio

 Reona Aoki

 Lisa Mamie

 Jessica Vall Montero

 Yu Jingyao

 Jenna Strauch

 Taylor McKeown

 Kayla van der Merwe

 Julia Sebastian

 Eszter Bekesi

 

Women's 100m Butterfly

 

 Maggie MacNeil

 Sarah Sjoestroem

 Emma McKeon

 Marie Wattel

 Brianna Throssell

 Elena di Liddo

 Kelsi Dahlia

 Louise Hansson

 Katie McLaughlin

 Zhang Yufei

 Ilaria Bianchi

 Rebecca Smith

 Svetlana Chimrova

 Beryl Gastaldello

 Arina Surkova

 Anastasiya Shkurdai

 Katinka Hosszu

 Yui Ohashi

 Angelina Kohler

 Anna Ntountounaki

 

Women's 200m Butterfly

 

 Hali Flickinger

 Katie Drabot

 Katinka Hosszu

 Boglarka Kapas

 Suzuka Hasegawa

 Franziska Hentke

 Hiroko Makino

 Brianna Throssell

 Zhang Yufei

 Alys Thomas

 Laura Stephens

 Zhu Jiaming

 Svetlana Chimrova

 Anna Monteiro

 Laura Taylor

 

Women's 200m Individual Medley

 

 Katinka Hosszu

 Ye Shiwen

 Sydney Pickrem

 Yui Ohashi

 Melanie Margalis

 Alex Walsh

 Rika Omoto

 Kaylee McKeown

 Kim Seoyeong

 Siobhan O'Connor

 Kelsey Wog

 Maria Ugolkova

 Alicia Wilson

 Calypso Sheridan

 Yu Yiting

 Fantine Lesaffre

 Ilario Cusinato

 Anastasia Gorbenko

 Viktoria Gunes

 

Women's 400m Individual Medley

 

 Katinka Hosszu

 Ye Shiwen

 Yui Ohashi

 Mireia Belmonte

 Sydney Pickrem

 Emma Weyant

 Brooke Forde

 Aimee Willmott

 Fantine Lesaffre

 Emily Overholt

 Ilario Cusinato

 Anja Crevar

 Alba Vazquez

[OlympicsFan 859]

21 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations.

Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals:

- 3.45 medals for Sweden: Unless i am forgetting something, their absolute best case would be 4 medals for Sjöstrom (50 free, 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly). She is pretty much a lock in the 100 fly, but it isn't even certain that she will compete in the 200 free and in the 50 free and especially the 100 free she isn't a lock for a medal. I would consider 2.5 medals a more realistic prediction.

- 1.90 medals for France: Right now i would say 1 medal in total seems to be the most realistic prediction for them, probably for Manaudou in the 50 free (although he will have to beat at least two out of Fratus, Dressel, Morozov and Proud). They have other medal contenders (men's open water, men's 800 free), but i don't think that those 3 (the two mentioned before + Manaudou) combined are likely to win 2 (1.90 to be precise) medals.

- 0.74 medals for South Africa: I think you are underrating their medal chances. Le Clos (100 fly + 200 fly) and Schoenmaker (200 breast) should combine for an expected medal count of around 1.50 in my opinion.

- 0.69 medals for Lithuania: I think right now Rapsys has to be considered the favorite for gold in the 200 free and i don't see 3 other guys who are more likely to medal in the 400 free right now. I would have them at 1.25 medals or something like that.

- 5.25 medals for Hungary: 5 medals realistically seems to be the best case for them in my opinion (2 x men's 200 fly, women's 200 IM, women's 400 IM, women's 200 fly). Kesely (400 free), Hosszu (200 back) and Milak (100 fly) have outside chances for more medals, but on the other hand 2 medals in men's 200 fly and a medal in women's 200 fly are far from certain. I would say their expected number of medals is closer to 4.50.

- 6.32 medals for Canada: 7.50 seems more realistic in my opinion. 3 medals in the relays on the women's side are almost a lock (at least the 2 medals in the 400 free relay and the medley relay), the same is true for a medal in women's 100 fly and then you also have (very) good medal chances in women's 100 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 breast, women's 100 back, women's 200 back, women's 200 IM and women's 400 IM.

- 7.91 medals for Italy: I really don't see how Italy should win 8 medals? Men's 400 free, men's 800 free, men's 1500 free, women's 200 free, women's 800 free, women's 1500 free, women's 200 back. Those medals aren't all a lock (especially men's 400 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 back), but of course on the other hand they have (outside) chances in other events like women's open water and men's 100 breast. Overall i would consider something like 6.50 or 7.00 a more realistic value.

 

In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions?

[JoshMartini007 2,547]

37 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals:

 

Right now the assumption is the top two athletes of each nation will compete in all events they are eligible for. For athletes like Sjostrom or Hosszu the events they are listed may not match the events they will compete in. Once we know for sure I'll remove them from those events. For Sweden they also have chances at winning medals in the 4x100m free and medley relays which slightly boosts their chances. Overall, the over/underperformance is pretty much due to how well a nation performed in 2019, it doesn't take into account injuries.

 

43 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said:

In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions?

 

The main focus is to get all the sports up, but there will be at least one more update closer to the games.

[JoshMartini007 2,547]

Last month, SwimSwam put together a list of Olympic trials that will be held. Note that this may not be the only way an athlete from those nations can qualify, some selection policies allow for athletes which performed well at certain other meets (like the World Championships) to be selected, but the conclusion of these events should give us most of the swimming team. Here is the calendar of events (yes Netherlands has two events).

 

Ukraine - 10-13 March

Italy - 17-21 March

Lithuania - 19-21 March

Hungary - 24-28 March

Denmark - 28 March - 1 April

New Zealand - 31 March - 4 April

China - 28 March - 5 April

Canada - 30 March - 5 April

Ireland - 1-5 April

Switzerland - 2-5 April

Netherlands - 3-5 April

Japan - 1-8 April

Spain - 4-8 April

Russia - 3-9 April

South Africa - 4-9 April

Netherlands - 9-12 April

Hong Kong - 11-12 April

France - 14-19 April

Great Britain - 14-19 April

Brazil - 20-25 April

Germany - 30 April - May 3

Belgium - 21-23 May

Poland - 20-24 May

Belarus - 22-24 May

Greece - 28-31 May

Australia - 14-19 June

Singapore - 24-27 June

United States - 21-28 June

Sweden - 26-30 June

[dcro 10,210]

It's rather pretentious to call it "Olympic trials" for some of these nations.

[JoshMartini007 2,547]

29 minutes ago, dcro said:

It's rather pretentious to call it "Olympic trials" for some of these nations.

 

Yeah places like Ireland and Singapore had three athletes in 2016.

 

A quick look at the 2016 Olympics, the largest teams not to have trials are the Czech Republic, Finland, Israel and South Korea.

[Vojthas 949]

No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else.

[JoshMartini007 2,547]

23 minutes ago, Vojthas said:

No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else.

 

FINA has the Polish Championship to be held in Lodz scheduled for those days.

 

[phelps 7,707]

the Italian Spring Nationals are definitely not true Trials...

 

it's the main chance for swimmers to get the required clockings, but not the only one...

 

we already have some qualified athletes from last December's Winter Champs, then many other will have a chance to swim the Olympic qualifying time at the European Champs (this championship is actually a true selection for that event, rather than the Olympics) and even further down the calendar, at the Settecolli meet in June...

 

and still our coaches have the last word...there's nothing "mathematical" in our selections (except for those athletes swimming the NF's "A" standard time, who are sure to fly to Tokyo in any case)...