JoshMartini007 2,532 Posted December 19, 2019 #131 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations. dcro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topicmaster1010 4,085 Posted December 20, 2019 #132 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Continuing from my last post: Women's 50m Freestyle Sarah Sjoestroem Cate Campbell Simone Manuel Pernille Blume Bronte Campbell Michelle Coleman Mariia Kameneva Anna Hopkin Ranomi Kromowidjojo Liu Xiang Abbey Weitzeil Femke Heemskerk Charlotte Bonnet Wu Qingfeng Women's 100m Freestyle Simone Manuel Cate Campbell Sarah Sjoestroem Emma McKeon Mallory Comerford Taylor Ruck Michelle Coleman Femke Heemskerk Anna Hopkin Charlotte Bonnet Freye Anderson Siobhan Haughey Ranomi Kromowidjojo Federica Pellegrini Pernille Blume Mariia Kameneva Penny Oleksiak Yang Junxuan Beryl Gastaldello Signe Bro Zhu Menghui Rika Omoto Barbora Seemanova Lidon Munoz del Campo Women's 200m Freestyle Federica Pellegrini Ariarne Titmus Emma McKeon Sarah Sjoestroem Siobhan Haughey Yang Junxuan Katie Ledecky Simone Manuel Charlotte Bonnet Femke Heemskerk Penny Oleksiak Rio Shirai Taylor Ruck Veronika Andrusenko Barbora Seemanova Katinka Hosszu Valeriia Salamatina Women's 400m Freestyle Ariarne Titmus Katie Ledecky Leah Smith Ajna Kesely Wang Jianjiahe Li Bingjie Katinka Hosszu Kiah Melverton Simona Quadarella Veronika Andrusenko Anna Egorova Sarah Kohler Delfina Pignatiello Mireia Belmonte Holly Hibbott Leonie Beck Women's 800m Freestyle Katie Ledecky Wang Jianjiahe Simona Quadarella Ariarne Titmus Leah Smith Sarah Kohler Kiah Melverton Ajna Kesely Mireia Belmonte Delfina Pignatiello Leonie Beck Hou Yawen Miyu Namba Martina Caramignoli Anna Egorova Tjasa Oder Julia Hassler Jimena Perez Blanco Yukimi Moriyama Beril Bocekler Women's 1500m Freestyle Katie Ledecky Simona Quadarella Sarah Kohler Wang Jianjiahe Delfina Pignatiello Ashley Twichell Ajna Kesely Maddy Gough Kiah Melverton Mireia Belmonte Martina Caramignoli Boglarka Kapas Tjasa Oder Waka Kobori Zhang Ke Yukimi Moriyama Lea Boy Jimena Perez Blanco Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Kristel Kobrich Lara Grangeon Julia Hassler Tamila Holub Beril Bocekler Mackenzie Padington Viviane Jungblut Emma O'Croinin Diana Duraes Marlene Kahler Women's 100m Backstroke Regan Smith Kylie Masse Taylor Ruck Minna Atherton Phoebe Bacon Margherita Panziera Kaylee McKeown Kira Toussaint Mariia Kameneva Daria Vaskina Katinka Hosszu Natsumi Sakai Georgia Davies Fu Yuanhui Simona Kubova Laura Riedemann Chen Jie Kathleen Dawson Beryl Gastaldello Federica Pellegrini Hoi Shun Stephanie Au Women's 200m Backstroke Regan Smith Margherita Panziera Kylie Masse Kaylee McKeown Taylor Ruck Minna Atherton Katinka Hosszu Lisa Bratton Liu Yaxin Katalin Burian Rio Shirai Chloe Golding Africa Zamorano Sanz Peng Xuwei Jessica Fullalove Anastasiia Avdeeva Ali Galyer Daria Ustinova Lena Grabowski Natsumi Sakai Tatiana Salcutan Women's 100m Breaststroke Lilly King Yuliya Efimova Annie Lazor Reona Aoki Tatjana Schoenmaker Anna Belousova Martina Carraro Arianna Castiglioni Kierra Smith Yu Jingyao Jessica Vall Montero Molly Renshaw Miho Teramura Tes Schouten Fanny LeCluyse Julia Sebastian Jessica Hansen Abbey Harkin Kayla van der Merwe Alia Atkinson Women's 200m Breaststroke Yuliya Efimova Annie Lazor Lilly King Tatjana Schoenmaker Ye Shiwen Sydney Pickrem Evgeniia Chikunova Kelsey Wog Molly Renshaw Kanako Watanabe Fanny LeCluyse Marina Garcia Urzainqui Kaylene Corbett Francesca Fangio Reona Aoki Lisa Mamie Jessica Vall Montero Yu Jingyao Jenna Strauch Taylor McKeown Kayla van der Merwe Julia Sebastian Eszter Bekesi Women's 100m Butterfly Maggie MacNeil Sarah Sjoestroem Emma McKeon Marie Wattel Brianna Throssell Elena di Liddo Kelsi Dahlia Louise Hansson Katie McLaughlin Zhang Yufei Ilaria Bianchi Rebecca Smith Svetlana Chimrova Beryl Gastaldello Arina Surkova Anastasiya Shkurdai Katinka Hosszu Yui Ohashi Angelina Kohler Anna Ntountounaki Women's 200m Butterfly Hali Flickinger Katie Drabot Katinka Hosszu Boglarka Kapas Suzuka Hasegawa Franziska Hentke Hiroko Makino Brianna Throssell Zhang Yufei Alys Thomas Laura Stephens Zhu Jiaming Svetlana Chimrova Anna Monteiro Laura Taylor Women's 200m Individual Medley Katinka Hosszu Ye Shiwen Sydney Pickrem Yui Ohashi Melanie Margalis Alex Walsh Rika Omoto Kaylee McKeown Kim Seoyeong Siobhan O'Connor Kelsey Wog Maria Ugolkova Alicia Wilson Calypso Sheridan Yu Yiting Fantine Lesaffre Ilario Cusinato Anastasia Gorbenko Viktoria Gunes Women's 400m Individual Medley Katinka Hosszu Ye Shiwen Yui Ohashi Mireia Belmonte Sydney Pickrem Emma Weyant Brooke Forde Aimee Willmott Fantine Lesaffre Emily Overholt Ilario Cusinato Anja Crevar Alba Vazquez uk12points and AlFHg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 858 Posted December 20, 2019 #133 Share Posted December 20, 2019 21 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said: Here are my medal projections for swimming. Unsurprisingly the United States and Australia are the top nations. Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals: - 3.45 medals for Sweden: Unless i am forgetting something, their absolute best case would be 4 medals for Sjöstrom (50 free, 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly). She is pretty much a lock in the 100 fly, but it isn't even certain that she will compete in the 200 free and in the 50 free and especially the 100 free she isn't a lock for a medal. I would consider 2.5 medals a more realistic prediction. - 1.90 medals for France: Right now i would say 1 medal in total seems to be the most realistic prediction for them, probably for Manaudou in the 50 free (although he will have to beat at least two out of Fratus, Dressel, Morozov and Proud). They have other medal contenders (men's open water, men's 800 free), but i don't think that those 3 (the two mentioned before + Manaudou) combined are likely to win 2 (1.90 to be precise) medals. - 0.74 medals for South Africa: I think you are underrating their medal chances. Le Clos (100 fly + 200 fly) and Schoenmaker (200 breast) should combine for an expected medal count of around 1.50 in my opinion. - 0.69 medals for Lithuania: I think right now Rapsys has to be considered the favorite for gold in the 200 free and i don't see 3 other guys who are more likely to medal in the 400 free right now. I would have them at 1.25 medals or something like that. - 5.25 medals for Hungary: 5 medals realistically seems to be the best case for them in my opinion (2 x men's 200 fly, women's 200 IM, women's 400 IM, women's 200 fly). Kesely (400 free), Hosszu (200 back) and Milak (100 fly) have outside chances for more medals, but on the other hand 2 medals in men's 200 fly and a medal in women's 200 fly are far from certain. I would say their expected number of medals is closer to 4.50. - 6.32 medals for Canada: 7.50 seems more realistic in my opinion. 3 medals in the relays on the women's side are almost a lock (at least the 2 medals in the 400 free relay and the medley relay), the same is true for a medal in women's 100 fly and then you also have (very) good medal chances in women's 100 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 breast, women's 100 back, women's 200 back, women's 200 IM and women's 400 IM. - 7.91 medals for Italy: I really don't see how Italy should win 8 medals? Men's 400 free, men's 800 free, men's 1500 free, women's 200 free, women's 800 free, women's 1500 free, women's 200 back. Those medals aren't all a lock (especially men's 400 free, women's 200 free, women's 200 back), but of course on the other hand they have (outside) chances in other events like women's open water and men's 100 breast. Overall i would consider something like 6.50 or 7.00 a more realistic value. In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions? Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,532 Posted December 20, 2019 #134 Share Posted December 20, 2019 37 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said: Overall i would consider most of the predictions pretty good, but i am not sure about the following predictions for overall medals: Right now the assumption is the top two athletes of each nation will compete in all events they are eligible for. For athletes like Sjostrom or Hosszu the events they are listed may not match the events they will compete in. Once we know for sure I'll remove them from those events. For Sweden they also have chances at winning medals in the 4x100m free and medley relays which slightly boosts their chances. Overall, the over/underperformance is pretty much due to how well a nation performed in 2019, it doesn't take into account injuries. 43 minutes ago, OlympicsFan said: In the end it is still a long time until the olympics and i am sure a lot of things will change until then, so probably it is still too early for predictions like that to be taken too seriously, although of course it will be interesting to compare the actual medal table to your predictions. When/how often (if at all) will you update your predictions? The main focus is to get all the sports up, but there will be at least one more update closer to the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,532 Posted February 4, 2020 #135 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Last month, SwimSwam put together a list of Olympic trials that will be held. Note that this may not be the only way an athlete from those nations can qualify, some selection policies allow for athletes which performed well at certain other meets (like the World Championships) to be selected, but the conclusion of these events should give us most of the swimming team. Here is the calendar of events (yes Netherlands has two events). Ukraine - 10-13 March Italy - 17-21 March Lithuania - 19-21 March Hungary - 24-28 March Denmark - 28 March - 1 April New Zealand - 31 March - 4 April China - 28 March - 5 April Canada - 30 March - 5 April Ireland - 1-5 April Switzerland - 2-5 April Netherlands - 3-5 April Japan - 1-8 April Spain - 4-8 April Russia - 3-9 April South Africa - 4-9 April Netherlands - 9-12 April Hong Kong - 11-12 April France - 14-19 April Great Britain - 14-19 April Brazil - 20-25 April Germany - 30 April - May 3 Belgium - 21-23 May Poland - 20-24 May Belarus - 22-24 May Greece - 28-31 May Australia - 14-19 June Singapore - 24-27 June United States - 21-28 June Sweden - 26-30 June Benolympique and Laraja 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcro 10,210 Posted February 4, 2020 #136 Share Posted February 4, 2020 It's rather pretentious to call it "Olympic trials" for some of these nations. #banbestmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,532 Posted February 4, 2020 #137 Share Posted February 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, dcro said: It's rather pretentious to call it "Olympic trials" for some of these nations. Yeah places like Ireland and Singapore had three athletes in 2016. A quick look at the 2016 Olympics, the largest teams not to have trials are the Czech Republic, Finland, Israel and South Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vojthas 949 Posted February 4, 2020 #138 Share Posted February 4, 2020 No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMartini007 2,532 Posted February 4, 2020 #139 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Vojthas said: No swimming competition is scheduled in the Polish Swimming Association's calendar for 2020 in those days - there is one of the events from Polish Grand Prix cycle on 25-26, but it has to do with the Olympics as the others - you can get the minimum also there. But knowing how our federation is, it means nothing - they could have simply not update the calendar or the rules or anything else. FINA has the Polish Championship to be held in Lodz scheduled for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phelps 7,628 Posted February 5, 2020 #140 Share Posted February 5, 2020 the Italian Spring Nationals are definitely not true Trials... it's the main chance for swimmers to get the required clockings, but not the only one... we already have some qualified athletes from last December's Winter Champs, then many other will have a chance to swim the Olympic qualifying time at the European Champs (this championship is actually a true selection for that event, rather than the Olympics) and even further down the calendar, at the Settecolli meet in June... and still our coaches have the last word...there's nothing "mathematical" in our selections (except for those athletes swimming the NF's "A" standard time, who are sure to fly to Tokyo in any case)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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