How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[Topicmaster1010 6,337]

25 minutes ago, Josh said:

66% chance for a medal in moguls seems low though...

 

Men's relay being 5th in short track, and Clarke only having a 0.5% chance at a medal also seem off

 

Why is ski mountaineering there, we didn't even qualify anyone 

The probability of winning a medal in the men's 500m also seems a bit off 

 

[thevorminatheria 6]

On 2/3/2026 at 4:56 AM, Topicmaster1010 said:

The probability of winning a medal in the men's 500m also seems a bit off 

 

1.6 medals for Canada in the men's 500m sound reasonable no? Dandjnou e Dubois can both easily medal, especially if they plan a team strategy

[Topicmaster1010 6,337]

2 hours ago, thevorminatheria said:

1.6 medals for Canada in the men's 500m sound reasonable no? Dandjnou e Dubois can both easily medal, especially if they plan a team strategy

Now I see how it works, thanks for clarifying. I thought it described the probability of a nation winning a medal in that event out of 100%

 

Great job on the site by the way. Very informative and good predictions!

[Surreal 31]

Done my prediction contest and I went with 11 medals for GBR including 7 Golds. Probably ambitious and unlikely for them to all go our way, but honestly, at least five of those Gold medalists are at minimum co-favourites in their events. Just shows how good a place we're in for these games.

 

A reminder that GBR's best previous medal haul at a Winter Olympics is 5 medals and we've never won more than one Gold at a single games. At the very least, we should beat that (hopefully I haven't just jinxed it for us).

[Fly_like_a_don 1,153]

Don't know if I get enough time for this but I'll be rooting for      

[Grassmarket 4,243]

3 hours ago, Fly_like_a_don said:

Don't know if I get enough time for this but I'll be rooting for      

Back in the day when  had nobody and nothing in most sports, I always used to go for  - still remember the Torino CC Sprint!

[avlar 565]

Finally here)))

 

 

About our chances

 

Tier E - No chances at all
Alpine Skiing, Cross Country, Nordic Combined, Figure Skating

We are absolutely nowhere in these sports right now. Marsak in FS is a talanted skater but he is not good enough righ now.


Tier D - Pure Miracle
Ski jumping, Short-track.

Sometimes miracles can happen )) So the chances are not 0.000000 but a lot of mistakes from the other competitors are needed.

 

Tier C - Close but...

Skeleton, Snowboarding

We have some strong results just near the podium in these sports at WC/WCH during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
But the field is too strong.

 

Tier B - May happen... or not
Luge, Biathlon, Freeskiing

We won a medal in each of these sports during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
But these medals were rather exceptions than the stable results. So it will be very difficult to repeat.
It will depend not only on our performance.

Tiear A - Hope
Aerials 

The only sports with several WC/WCH medals during 2 pre-Olympic seasons.
If we do our best it will mean a medal. But the sport is really risky and unpredictable.


So - 0/1 medal in total.
 

[Book 103]

On 1/28/2026 at 12:20 PM, Book said:

Someone has to tally USA up, I'll make it as short as I can.

Coming back to this to compare the pre-Olympics predictions to the actual results. Not saying I was a great predictor. I had some blind spots in sports that I didn't even list as a possibility . My predictions of 30 medals came short by 3. 
 

• Alpine Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 4. 
  • Required the whole ski team to get this result. Each medal went to a unique athelte. I thought it would be Shiffrin's games, but she still got her piece of the gold pie.
• Bobsleigh: Predicted 1, Actual 3. 
  • Proud of predicting the monobob win, but 3 was the max number I thought possible. 
• Cross-Country Skiing: Predicted 3, Actual 3
  • Got the right number, but 2 men's medals was not the path I forsaw at all.
• Curling: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • The legend of the Cory/Korey's will endure. I won't leave the sport off ever again.
• Figure Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 3
  • First under prediction. To be fair, everyone would have thought Ilia was a lock for at least a medal. The biggest miss of the games for the whole team but the best opportunity in the French Alps.
• Freestyle Skiing: Predicted 9, Actual 8
  • I didn't break down this prediction, but proud of the number. I came up with 9 just as +1 to the 2022 total with the addition of doubles mogul. Considering we got two medals in doubles mogul we did actually underperform in the men's events. 
• Ice Hockey: Predicted 2, Actual 2
  • Only thing I was off by was predicting the men's medal would be bronze. 
• Luge: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • A very nice surprise
• Short Track: Predicted 0, Actual 1
  • At least I said there was a possibility here unlike Luge and Curling. An odd bronze was exactly where I saw this coming from.
• Skeleton: Predicted 1, Actual 0
  • Highest rank for the US here was 7th. I picked the wrong sled.
• Snowboard: Predicted 3, Actual 2
  • Fair to say the US is not a powerhouse in snowboarding any longer. I was almost right about Ollie Martin getting bronze in big air, but it was a different event the men got their bronze.
• Speed Skating: Predicted 4, Actual 5
  • I can't say I meant to predict Stolz missing a medal in the Mass Start, but I'll take it. I was exact other then Women's Mass Start.

 

33 in the end! I'd rather get some surprises then underperform expectations. If I did do a full medal by medal breakdown I'm sure I would have over predicted golds by a couple. I can think of 5 events (figure men, ice dance, women's board halfpipe, men's skate mass start, men's team pursuit) off the top of my head where US were favorites but didn't win. 

Only question left, 11 or 12 golds in the end? We'll see in the next few minutes.

 

Edited yesterday at 03:41 PM by Book

[Andre Han 182]

On 1/30/2026 at 4:56 AM, Andre Han said:

China's medal prospects
 
Short Track Speed Skating: This is the event with the deepest emotional ties to China's winter sports, as China's first Olympic gold medal in winter sports came from this discipline. Unsurprisingly, people have high expectations for it in this Winter Olympics. Medal prospects are mainly focused on men's individual events and the two relay events. However, considering the strong strength of William Dandjinou, I think the probability of winning gold in men's individual events is very low. Instead, the main gold medal hopes lie in the men's relay and mixed relay.
Medals: 1-3.

My guess: 1 gold;

Optimistic: 2 golds
 
Freestyle Skiing: The performance of this event is crucial to China's success in this Winter Olympics. Eileen Gu remains our super star and is highly competitive in slopestyle and halfpipe. As for the big air, if I remember correctly, she hasn't competed in this event since the Beijing Winter Olympics, so it's hard for me to make a clear judgment on her performance in this individual event.
China has the potential to compete for medals or even gold in all three medal events of freestyle skiing aerials. However, given the unpredictability of aerials, the results could be either disastrous or brilliant. Xu Mengtao will compete in her fifth Winter Olympics.
Medals: 3-6.

My guess: 3 golds;

Optimistic: 4 golds
 
Speed Skating: Similar to the situation in Beijing, the medal hopes still lie with Gao Tingyu and Ning Zhongyan. However, Stolz has shown extremely strong dominance during the Milan Olympic cycle, so I don't think there will be any gold medals in this event. Gao Tingyu has performed excellently in the previous two Winter Olympics, and I still believe he can win a medal in the 500m. Ning Zhongyan also has the potential to win medals in the 1000m and 1500m.
Medals: 1-3.

My guess: 0 gold;

Optimistic: 0 gold
 
Snowboard: Like in Beijing, Su Yiming remains the star of China's snowboarding. He has maintained a very good competitive form this season, with great chances especially in the big air event, where he will aim to defend his title. He also has the potential to win a medal in slopestyle.
Medals: 1-2.

My guess: 1 gold;

Optimistic: 1 gold
 
Skeleton: Men's events and mixed team events are opportunities to compete for medals, with Yin Zheng being the key athlete for medal contention.
Medals: 1-2.

My guess: 0 gold;

Optimistic: 1 gold
 
Curling: China will send both men's and women's teams to this event. Both teams have the ability to compete with high-level strong teams. I predict that either the men's or women's team will reach the top four.
Medals: 0-1.

My guess: 0 golds;

Optimistic: 0 golds
 
Ski Jumping: This is still a less developed event for China, but Zeng Ping has made significant progress this season, entering the top 8 in many high-level competitions. There is a chance to compete for a medal, but it will be very difficult to achieve. If it really happens, I think it will be quite incredible.
Medals: 0-1
 
I think other events have no chance of winning medals.
 
summary,

Optimistic: 8 golds and 17 medals; 
My guess: 5 golds and 14 medals; 
Worst-case scenario: 3 golds and 11 medals.

The final result was 5 golds, 4 silvers and 6 bronzes, totaling 15 medals, which basically matched my personal guess. The only difference was in short track speed skating and speed skating. I originally thought there would be 1 gold medal in short track, while it would be difficult to win a gold in speed skating. However, in the end, speed skating created a miracle in the men's 1500m, while short track had its worst performance in history. The performance of other events was in line with my personal expectations based on the competitive situation.

 

I am very disappointed with the performance of short track. Although the competition in short track is indeed very fierce, it is still somewhat unacceptable to have no gold medals. This is the first time in the 21st century that China has failed to win a gold medal in short track speed skating. After all, in previous Winter Olympics, short track speed skating has always been a major event for China to compete for gold medals. In the next four years, we must regroup and regain the strength to compete with the world's top short track nations.

[Monzanator 5,071]

On 1/26/2026 at 4:09 PM, Monzanator said:

2 or 3 if  gets lucky. Probably all in speed skating (1960 vibes ) 

4 has exceeded expectations but speed skating still underperformed + nobody over here predicted Tomasiak getting 3 medals that inflated the count.