Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation Road to LA 2028

[prso1000 747]

I will try for Croatia: 

 

Archery (1) : we never had a representative, but were two times very close. I think we have a chance in Recurve for a single male quota, and in mixed compound, 

Realistic one quota 

 

Athletics (8) : difficult as many things will change in the next 2-3 seasons, but let's. say 8, I think that could be a realistic number

 

Badminton (1) : hopefully our Indonesian import will manage to qualify  

 

Basketball (0): small chances in both male and 3x3 male teams , but somehow I doubt it 

 

Boxing (2): two male quotas 

 

Canoe slalom (1). maybe with a small chance for two places, but one is realistic 

 

Canoe sprint (1): similar to slalom, maybe two, but one is realistic, but lets see how the new qualification system plays out 

 

Cycling (2): would bee very happy with a quota in BMX freestyle and male road race 

 

Diving (1): hoping that Matej Nevescanin will qualify 

 

Fencing (0): very small chance in mens foil, but I guess will not happen. 

 

football (0): there is always talks about our male team, but never succeeded, I am afraid will be the same for LA 2028 

 

Artistic gymnastics (4): Kovtun plus two additional male quotes plus one female

 

Handball (14): the mens team should qualify 

 

Judo (5): four female quota plus one male 

 

Rowing (5). difficult to say as boats/crews are not defined yet. But I expect 4 mens places plus 1 female. Maybe more, but let see 

 

Sailing (6): somehow not a good development in this sports, could be even less than 6 quotas. 

 

Shooting (5): hopefully two trap and two male rifle quotas plus one surprise 

 

Swimming (6): will be brave here and say 5 male plus one female. I think we have a realistic chance to qualify a freestyle relay. 

 

Table tennis (5): hope for 3 male and two female quotas incl. mixed doubles (Arapovic/Ban)

 

Tennis (6): still too early, and always the question who is really interested in playing.

 

Taekwondo (3): I am seeing two females plus one male qualifying

 

Waterpolo (11): mens team should be safe, small chance for our women's team.

 

Wrestling (1) considering the Russian expansion, one quota would be great

 

 

in all other sports hopeless case for Croatia. But 88 would be a great delegation, probably too optimistic  

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3 by prso1000

[clemsonbeav 723]

I just finished a simulation (based on Host Country quota and using how many others we qualified in 2024).  The result is a stupidly high number of athletes, thanks largely to the new sports mostly being team sports.  The number of 'slots' (i.e. events eligible, as opposed to raw number of athletes) would be smaller of course.

 

Sport	Estimated Total M	Estimated Total W
3x3 Basketball	4	4
Archery	4	4
Artistic Gymnastics	5	5
Artistic Swimming	0	8
Badminton	3	4
Basketball	12	12
Baseball / Softball	24	15
Beach Volleyball	4	4
Boxing	4	4
Canoe - Slalom	1	1
Canoe - Sprint	3	2
Coastal Rowing	1	1
Cricket	15	15
Cycling - BMX Freestyle	2	2
Cycling - BMX Racing	3	2
Cycling - Mountain Bike	2	2
Cycling - Road	3	2
Cycling - Track	5	2
Diving	8	8
Equestrian	9
Fencing	9	9
Field Hockey	16	16
Flag Football	10	10
Golf	4	3
Handball	14	14
Judo	7	7
Lacrosse	11	11
Modern Pentathlon	1	1
Rhythmic Gymnastics	0	7
Rowing	22	18
Rugby Sevens	12	12
Sailing	7	7
Shooting	9	9
Skateboarding	6	6
Soccer	18	18
Sport Climbing	4	4
Squash	1	2
Surfing	2	3
Swimming (inc. OWS)	27	27
Table Tennis	3	3
Taekwondo	2	2
Tennis	6	6
Track & Field	58	58
Trampoline	1	1
Triathlon	2	3
Volleyball	12	12
Water Polo	11	11
Weightlifting	3	3
Wrestling	10	6
Total M/W	391	386
Total Open	9
Total	786

 

 

Like, just our Men, or just our Women, would be in the Top 10 of nations by team size.

[rybak 3,432]

1 hour ago, clemsonbeav said:

I just finished a simulation (based on Host Country quota and using how many others we qualified in 2024).  The result is a stupidly high number of athletes, thanks largely to the new sports mostly being team sports.  The number of 'slots' (i.e. events eligible, as opposed to raw number of athletes) would be smaller of course.

 

Sport	Estimated Total M	Estimated Total W
3x3 Basketball	4	4
Archery	4	4
Artistic Gymnastics	5	5
Artistic Swimming	0	8
Badminton	3	4
Basketball	12	12
Baseball / Softball	24	15
Beach Volleyball	4	4
Boxing	4	4
Canoe - Slalom	1	1
Canoe - Sprint	3	2
Coastal Rowing	1	1
Cricket	15	15
Cycling - BMX Freestyle	2	2
Cycling - BMX Racing	3	2
Cycling - Mountain Bike	2	2
Cycling - Road	3	2
Cycling - Track	5	2
Diving	8	8
Equestrian	9
Fencing	9	9
Field Hockey	16	16
Flag Football	10	10
Golf	4	3
Handball	14	14
Judo	7	7
Lacrosse	11	11
Modern Pentathlon	1	1
Rhythmic Gymnastics	0	7
Rowing	22	18
Rugby Sevens	12	12
Sailing	7	7
Shooting	9	9
Skateboarding	6	6
Soccer	18	18
Sport Climbing	4	4
Squash	1	2
Surfing	2	3
Swimming (inc. OWS)	27	27
Table Tennis	3	3
Taekwondo	2	2
Tennis	6	6
Track & Field	58	58
Trampoline	1	1
Triathlon	2	3
Volleyball	12	12
Water Polo	11	11
Weightlifting	3	3
Wrestling	10	6
Total M/W	391	386
Total Open	9
Total	786

 

 

Like, just our Men, or just our Women, would be in the Top 10 of nations by team size.

786 athletes... will anybody in USA have time to follow results of each athlete or will remember their names? It seems impossible

[bmo 275]

22 minutes ago, rybak said:

786 athletes... will anybody in USA have time to follow results of each athlete or will remember their names? It seems impossible

Me and @clemsonbeav try our best lol 

[rybak 3,432]

Just now, bmo said:

Me and @clemsonbeav try our best lol 

Surely it would be the biggest delegation ever of any country at Olympics, right?

[JoshMartini007 2,871]

6 minutes ago, rybak said:

Surely it would be the biggest delegation ever of any country at Olympics, right?

Yeah it should easily beat out  in 1908 which had 676 athletes.

[bmo 275]

7 minutes ago, rybak said:

Surely it would be the biggest delegation ever of any country at Olympics, right?

It has to be

[clemsonbeav 723]

36 minutes ago, rybak said:

786 athletes... will anybody in USA have time to follow results of each athlete or will remember their names? It seems impossible

The blessing and the curse of being a big nation...we win lots of medals, but hard to follow it all!

 

[Akos55555 1]

Aquatics:
Swimming: same as Paris - 23
Open Water Swimming: 2 - I expect a full team (4) but 2 athletes will also compete in swimming so I won't count them twice
Diving: 0
Water Polo: 26 (guaranteed)
Artistic Swimming: 0

Archery: 0 - No idea about this sport

Athletics: 22 - Hungarian athetics has been improving very slowly

Basketball: 3x3 - 50% chance that the W team will qualify 0-4
Basketball: - same here 0-12

Boxing: - 4

Canoe Sprint: 15 - full team
Canoe Slalom: 0

Cycling 
BMX Freestyle: 0-1
BMX Racing: 0-1
Mountain Bike: 1 - Vas would also compete in road, but won't count her twice
Road: 1
Track: 0

Equestrian: 0-1

Fencing: 18-24 I expect 6 teams because they've been improving, but 4 teams and 2 individual athletes at worst

Football: 0

Golf: 0

Gymnastics
Artistic: 4 (as individual athletes)
Rhythmic: 1
Trampoline: 0

Handball: 14-28 - either W basketball or M handball makes it but not both, we are not that lucky. W handball is almost guaranteed imo

Hockey: 0 - most Hungarians don't even know this sport exists

Judo: 4 - decline in the sport

Modern Pentathlon: 4 - full squad

Rowing: 1

Rugby: 0

Sailing: 2

Shooting: 8

Skateboading: 0

Sport Climbing: 0

Table Tennis: 1-2 - idk honestly

Taekwondo: 6 - I expect a lot from taekwondo in LA

Tennis: 1-2

 

Triathlon: 4

Beach Volleyball: 0
Volleyball: 0

Weightlifting: 0

Wrestling: 7

All the new sports: 0-1 (maybe 1 in squash)

167-207 athletes
 

Edited 50 minutes ago by Akos55555