Canada's 2026 Olympics Qualification Discussion Road to Milano Cortina 2026

[Surlympics 1,212]

2 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Well this year just continues to be disappointment after disappointment for me. Between seeing the U.S have success in international sports plus how leagues like the NHL, MLB, and NFL have gone the last few years, I'm just numb to seeing the villains win at this point.

Well professional sports is a Multi-Billion dollar industry so they will always want an American team to win. Just picture it like watching a movie. The script has already been written and the winners predetermined. So just have that mindset going in and watch it for the drama and see the athletes as actors haha. There is a reason why no Canadian NHL team or the Jays haven't won since the early 90s.

[Surlympics 1,212]

2 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

So now without the ski mountaineering quotas, there's a small chance that we could end up falling below the 200 athlete mark

But on a positive note. Let’s focus on the good today because when you do it multiplies. Ivanie set a crazy time winning bronze in the women’s 1500m, Val Grenier won GS bronze, Marion Thenault won silver in the opening aerials, Brendan McKay won gold in halfpipe against a stacked field, and Naomi Urness is a young bright star in freestyle skiing winning another medal. So if the universe took away a skimo qualification for an alpine skiing medal and another great freestyle skier for Canada I’ll take it. Canada always excels in an Olympic year. I see us having our best Winter Olympics ever in terms of total medals won (30+) and I still see Piper and Paul on that Olympic podium in the ice dance despite the scandalous judging. These Olympics are where we will outshine the Americans haha  

[orangeman 2,292]

3 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Well this year just continues to be disappointment after disappointment for me. Between seeing the U.S have success in international sports plus how leagues like the NHL, MLB, and NFL have gone the last few years, I'm just numb to seeing the villains win at this point.

At least we beat the evil Americans at the Four Nations. 

[orangeman 2,292]

20 minutes ago, Surlympics said:

Well professional sports is a Multi-Billion dollar industry so they will always want an American team to win. Just picture it like watching a movie. The script has already been written and the winners predetermined. So just have that mindset going in and watch it for the drama and see the athletes as actors haha. There is a reason why no Canadian NHL team or the Jays haven't won since the early 90s.

Yeah, there's a reason the US got a ridiculously easy group in the draw yesterday. Expect that team to go far this summer and they'll be forced to say it's because of Trump. Maybe they'll make another new award just for him again. 

[JockCartier 247]

3 hours ago, Surlympics said:

So did this race include the worlds very best?

No... most of the top racers were saving themselves for the singles races tomorrow. They had the team spots sewn up, so now they're racing to get selected for their nation

 

Usually Canada and US were racing for 10th or 11th out of 12... Spain, Italy and France will kick the crap out of everyone at the Olympics

[Topicmaster1010 5,387]

1 hour ago, JockCartier said:

Spain, Italy and France will kick the crap out of everyone at the Olympics

Switzerland will be in the mix as well.

[Topicmaster1010 5,387]

On 11/24/2025 at 11:37 PM, Topicmaster1010 said:

Women's 1000m (2 quotas): Beatrice Lamarche and Alexa Scott are 6th and 16th respectively in the World Rankings. Both should qualify. Maddison Pearman is actually in the last time qualifier position. However, since Italy didn't earn a quota by ranking or time and have an athlete on the reserve list, then the final quota goes to them by rule so Pearman is currently the first reserve instead.

Good news! Maddison Pearman is now the last time qualifier.

 

This means that Canada is in position to qualify the maximum number of athletes in all the women's speed skating events.

[Josh 11,540]

On 11/23/2025 at 7:39 AM, Josh said:

I was bored so I decided to do a quota simulation before the winter World Cups really kicked off. 

 

Using @Topicmaster1010’s format, hope you don’t mind. 
 

I’m predicting 211 athletes in 14 sports, for 104 men and 107 women, a decrease of 4 athletes from Beijing 2022. 

 

Alpine Skiing (12 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 13 (5 men + 8 women)

 

Decrease of 1 athlete from 2022.

 

For the men, Cameron Alexander and Jack Crawford will for sure qualify barring injury. Jeffery Read, Brodie Seger, Broderick Thompson as well. Riley Seger probably will get the sixth quota. For the women, Valerie Grenier, Alli Nullmeyer, Laurence St Germain, Britt Richardson,  Cassidy Gray, and Raphael Lessard. 

 

Biathlon (8 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 8 (4 men + 4 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 8 (4 men + 4 women)

 

We qualified 4 in each gender through the Nations Cup Rankings. Men just barely made it. 
 

Women’s team will probably be Peiffer, Rousseau, Paradis, Moser. Men’s team is less certain, but I’m guessing Connelly, Runnals, Pletz, Borglum (we only have three competing at the first WC…)

 

Bobsleigh (15 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 13 (8 men + 7 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 18 (12 men + 6 women)

 

Our men’s team is on a major fall with the retirement of Kripps, so only Pat Norton and Taylor Austin in four-men (although maybe Norton won’t?, not sure what the rankings are looking like)

 

On the women’s side, I have Appiah/Lotholz representing us in monobob, very tough to tell though. Completely unsure as who the two-women teams but if we’re basing it off the evaluation selection races (because I don’t know nearly enough about bobsleigh) I think it’ll be Ribi/Richardson Wilson, Bujnowski/Mitchell and Sieben/Lotholz, mind you this is based off of absolutely nothing. I am curious about why Walkeden/Haughey disappeared though.
 

That would be 7 women and 8 men for a total of 15, down 3 from Beijing 2022.

 

Cross-Country Skiing (11 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 11 (5 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 9 (4 men + 5 women)

 

Four quotas per gender are official. Sonjaa Schmidt, Liliane Gagnon, Katherine Stewart-Jones, Alison Mackie should make up the women’s team. Antoine Cyr, Oliver Leveille, Xavier McKeever,  Remi Drolet should make up the men’s team. Going out on a limb here, think Graham Richie might be on the team as well? Have Olivia Bouffard-Nesbitt and Jasmine Drolet also on the team. 

 

Curling (12 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

 

Peterman/Gallant have already qualified, Homan will almost surely qualify, and I have Dunstone winning Olympic Trials so that would be another max team. But between Dunstone, Jacobs, Epping, McEwen and Gushue I could see anyone winning (and even Koe at this stage, with his win over Jacobs at OT)

 

Figure Skating (12 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 12 (6 men + 6 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 13 (7 men + 6 women)

 

Already secured one men’s quota, one women’s quota, two pairs quotas, and three ice dance quotas, which is our final team through the results of World Championships. 
 

Probablt Madeline Schizas for the women’s spot, barring something unprecedented from Kaiya Ruiter, Gaby Daleman, or Sara-Maude Dupuis. For the men’s spot, Stephen Gogolev is the front-runner with Roman Sadovsky right behind him, and maybe Keegan Messing can insert himself into the mix. Pairs is locked in with Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps and Pereira/Michaud and so is ice dance with Gilles/Poirier, Lajoie/Lagha and Fabbri/Ayer. 

 

 

Freestyle Skiing (32 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 32 (16 men + 16 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 32 (16 men + 16 women)

 

Almost surely going to qualify 32, but almost impossible to predict who will qualify in terms of athletes on the bubble because we would be qualifying much much more if there wasn’t a cap. 

 

Men:

Aerials (3): Alexandre Duchaine, Lewis Irving, Miha Fontaine 

Moguls (3): Mikael Kingsbury, Julien Viel, Elliot Vaillancourt 

Ski Cross (4): Reece Howden, Kevin Drury, Jared Schmidt, Kristofer Mahler

Halfpipe (3): Brendan MacKay, Andrew Longino, Noah Bowman

Slopestyle/Big Air (2): Evan McEachran, Dylan Deschamps, Max Moffatt

 

Women:

Aerials (2): Marion Thenault, Charlie Fontaine

Moguls (4): Maia Schwinghammer, Laurianne Desmarais-Gilbert, Ashley Koehler, Jessica Linton

Ski Cross (4): India Sherret, Marielle Thompson, Hannah Schmidt, Brittany Phelan (No Courtney Hoffos notably)

Halfpipe (4): Cassie Sharpe, Rachael Karker, Amy Fraser, Dillan Glennie

Slopestyle/Big Air (2): Megan Oldham, Olivia Asselin

 

Very possible that Elena Gaskell makes it instead of Linton or Koehler. Rowell, Katrusiak, Beatty, Porter MacLennan, Therriault, Primeau, David-Chalifoux, Hoffos, McEwen, Urness, both Marineaus all miss out. 

 

Ice Hockey (48 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 48 (25 men + 23 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 48 (25 men + 23 women)

 

Maybe I’ll do roster predictions eventually, but even with my knowledge I almost always get it wrong so… 

 

Luge (7 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 7 (3 men + 4 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 6 (3 men + 3 women)

 

Caitlin Nash and Embyr-Lee Susko in women’s singles (Trinity Ellis misses out), one of Dylan Morse/Theo Downey in men’s singles, Wardrope/Zajanski in men’s doubles, and Podulsky/Allan in women’s doubles. 

 

Nordic Combined (0 athletes)

 

 We are a complete joke at this sport and won’t be qualifying anyone in the next 10000000 years or so 

 

Short Track (10 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 10 (5 men + 5 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 10 (5 men + 5 women)

 

Projected # of events in 2026: 9

# of events in 2022: 9

 

Full team pretty much secured. Florence Brunelle, Kim Boutin, Courtney Sarault and Danae Blais will be four of those five women, and the final spot will come down to Rikki Doak/Anne Sophie-Bachand (most likely the former, depending on injury)

For the men, William Dandjinou, Felix Roussel, JPG, Steven Dubois, Maxime Laoun will be the relay barring injury. Mathieu Pelletier will be the front runner based off results at the Canadian Championships. 
 

Skeleton (4 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 4 (2 men + 2 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 3 (1 men + 2 women)

 

A few weeks ago I would’ve said only Halle Clarke and Jane Chanell, but Ryan Kuehn, Josip Brusic, and Zander Greco have been doing good on the NOR-AM circuit and could possibly get us two quotas?

 

Ski Jumping (4 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 4 (1 men + 3 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 3 (1 men + 2 women)

 

With Loutitt being injured, think Abigail Strate, Nicole Maurer, Natalie Eilers, and Mackenzie Boyd-Clowes will qualify. 
 

Ski Mountaineering (0 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 0 (0 men + 0 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 0

 

Can’t be optimistic about everything. We’re only one point ahead of US for the mixed relay continental quota and there’s only one race to go which they have home crowd advantage, don’t see it happening. 

 

 

Snowboarding (22 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 21 (10 men + 12 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 23 (11 men + 12 women)

 

Men:

Parallel Giant Slalom (2): Arnaud Gaudet, Ben Heldman

Snowboard Cross (3): Eliot Grondin, Evan Bichon, Liam Moffatt

Slopestyle/Big Air (4): Cameron Spalding, Liam Brearley, Mark McMorris, Eli Bouchard

Halfpipe (1): Liam Gill (13th at last World Championships)

 

Women:

Parallel Giant Slalom (3): Aurelie Moisan, Kaylie Buck, Megan Farrell

Snowboard Cross (3): Meryeta Odine, Audrey McManiman, Tess Critchlow

Halfpipe (3): Elizbeth Hosking, Felicity Geremia, Brooke Dhondt

Slopestyle/Big Air (3): Laurie Blouin, Jasmine Baird, Juliette Pelchat

 

No Francis Jobin, either of the Savard-Fergusson’s, Emeraude Maheux, Nicolas Laframboise, Ryan Vo,

 

Speed Skating (14 athletes)

Projected Athletes in 2026: 14 (7 men + 7 women)

# of athletes in 2022: 16 (8 men + 8 women)

 

Men:

500m (3): Laurent Dubreuil, Christopher Fiola, Cedric Brunet

1000m (2): Laurent Dubreuil, Anders Johnson

1500m (2): David la Rue, Antoine Gelinas-Beaulieu

5000m (1): Ted-Jan Bloemen, Graeme Fish

10000m (1): Ted-Jan Bloemen

Mass Start (3): David la Rue, Antoine Gelinas-Beaulieu, Jake Weidemann

 

Women:

500m (3): Carolina Hiller, Beatrice Lamarche, Brooklyn McDougall

1000m (2): Beatrice Lamarche, Alexa Scott

1500m (2): Ivanie Blondin, Beatrice Lamarche?

3000m (3): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais

5000m (2): Isabelle Weidemann, Ivanie Blondin

Mass Start (2): Ivanie Blondin, Valerie Maltais

 

No Connor Howe, in terrible form, possibly due to an injury? Same with Graeme Fish, Daniel Hall, Madison Pearman. Don’t think our men’s team pursuit will qualify either. 
 

Brooklyn McDougall and Alexa Scott have done well enough these first few World Cups to warrant a spot on the team. 

Noah Bowman has retired, I now have Dylan Marineau qualifying. 
 

Still don’t think Howe will recover in time for Olympic Trials. For women’s freestyle skiing I have Naomi Urness now qualifying obviously, replacing Charlie Fontaine. 
 

Ashley Koehler interestingly wasn’t on the start lists for the first WCs, I’ll keep her there for now but maybe might replace her with Berkley Brown or Maya Mikkelsen if she isn’t on any of them. 
 

Now have Madison Pearman making the team in speed skating. 
 

I still have Jasmine Baird making it despite finishing 30th and 23rd in her first two WCs, still coming back from a lengthy injury and I trust she can 

 

Edit: Oh and Hoffos over Schmidt now

Edited Thursday at 08:32 PM by Josh

[Topicmaster1010 5,387]

Cross-Country Skiing Olympic Trials begin tomorrow. The skiers will battle for 6 women's and 4 men's places at the Olympics (although re-allocations could still be possible). Katherine Stewart-Jones is already selected for the team which is why she's the only Canadian competing at the World Cup right now.

 

Here's some useful links:

 

Results

 

Selection Criteria (skip to section 5)

Edited 18 hours ago by Topicmaster1010

[intoronto 6,437]

8 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

Cross-Country Skiing Olympic Trials begin tomorrow. The skiers will battle for 6 women's and 4 men's places at the Olympics (although re-allocations could still be possible). Katherine Stewart-Jones is already selected for the team which is why she's the only Canadian competing at the World Cup right now.

 

Here's some useful links:

 

Results

 

Selection Criteria (skip to section 5)

It sucks the men's division in alpine and cross-country is more competitive, leading to less quotas for the top 10 nations. I hope we can get at least 5 men onto the team. Graham Ritchie is not competing in the distance races, meaning if they select him and Cyr, only two spots would be left to fill out the men's team (ie no relay, unless they use a biathlete)