Speed Skating Discussion | Qualification to Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026

[copravolley 644]

Even 2 years ago, I was hoping Ghiotto would be a second van der Poel from 2022, that he would simply go to OG and win 2 gold medals in the 5 and 10 km in Cortina and end his career with a great champion in glory. But this is Italy, and we don't know how to create great champions with truly strong mentalities. However, we are masters at creating alibis: injuries, a bad day, strong rivals, etc.

[Noorderling29 238]

3 minutes ago, copravolley said:

He might be a dark horse, but if Ghiotto, a 10k dominant force on his track for the last three seasons, is to be afraid of someone like that, then he has very little chance against Jilek. That's all. And that's unfortunately possible, because Italy lacks truly great champions who goes as favorites at the Olympics and won a gold medal: Zoegeller, Tomba, maybe Goggia in 2018 in the women's downhill. Not to much.

The comments I refered to are an appraisal of his performance yesterday, factoring in the high air pressure that’s not conclusive to fast times. You dismissed that appraisal of a number of experts. 

[copravolley 644]

30 minutes ago, Josh said:

True, true 

 

A chance definitely, but not someone you'd want to place your bets on

She could be a dark horse. But she has to be 100% good in 2 runs- she's always taking a huge risk and often exaggerates the risk. However, I wouldn't give her any less of a chance than, like Shiffrin in the giant slalom.

[copravolley 644]

Just now, Noorderling29 said:

The comments I refered to are an appraisal of his performance yesterday, factoring in the high air pressure that’s not conclusive to fast times. You dismissed that appraisal of a number of experts. 

OK.

[FeelingVeryOlympic 8]

On Jutta Leerdam, what happens if Naomi Verkerk (third place finisher in 1000m) ends up within the top 9 of the matrix, something like this:

 

Kok
Groenewoud
Beune
Schulting
Conijn
Rijpma-de Jong
Leerdam
Boersma
Verkerk

In that case, would the only way Leerdam can race the Olympic 1000m be if the selectors make a discretionary call to do so? I do see the word "calamiteit" in the selection procedures -- https://knsb.nl/media/documents/KNSB_selectiedocument_2025-2026_OS_Milaan_def_29sept25.pdf -- but I, just an English speaker, can't make out through google translate whether the "calamiteit" mentioned in the PDF would cover this situation.

 

What have they been saying about this on NOS?

[Noorderling29 238]

34 minutes ago, FeelingVeryOlympic said:

On Jutta Leerdam, what happens if Naomi Verkerk (third place finisher in 1000m) ends up within the top 9 of the matrix, something like this:

 

Kok
Groenewoud
Beune
Schulting
Conijn
Rijpma-de Jong
Leerdam
Boersma
Verkerk

In that case, would the only way Leerdam can race the Olympic 1000m be if the selectors make a discretionary call to do so? I do see the word "calamiteit" in the selection procedures -- https://knsb.nl/media/documents/KNSB_selectiedocument_2025-2026_OS_Milaan_def_29sept25.pdf -- but I, just an English speaker, can't make out through google translate whether the "calamiteit" mentioned in the PDF would cover this situation.

 

What have they been saying about this on NOS?

The unanimous opinion is that Leerdam will be nominated for the 1000 metres, apparantly even among the coaches.

 

As I understand it, this means she will take Kok’s 1000 metres spot in the matrix (place 5), Kok will take the Schulting place (7, but of course she’s allready in through the 500 metres) and Schulting will be relegated to Verkerk’s spot, number 15 and last. This will only be a problem if there are 9 skaters before her, which seems unlikely. Currently there are 7 names in the matrix. If the last two races will go to form, at most 2 names will be added (possibly Rijpma-De Jong in the 1500 metres, and less likely In t Hof or Kerkhoff in the 5000.) Only if the last two both qualify, we will get to 10 names, and then Schulting is out. There is a chance that it will remain at 7 names. That would need for Kok to qualify for the 1500 metres, which seems unlikely where it not for the fact that she owns the track record for that distance. In that case expect Rijpma to be added for the team pursuit and Kerkhoff for the mass start.

[Noorderling29 238]

Assuming Bergsma is pre-nominated for the mass-start (place 1 in The Matrix), there are currently 7 names in the matrix.

 

If everything goes according to expectations, this will grow to 9. In the 1000 metres the favorites are De Boo/Wennemars/Nuijs/Prins and in the 1500 metres the last three riders. It could even be limited to 8, in the unlikely event that van de Bunt qualifies in the 1500. There is precedent there: in 2001 OKT Uytdehaage won the 5000/10.000 metres as an outsider, and also qualified for the mile, as the favorites choked. He was dismissed as a lost opportunity on the very fast Salt Lake City track, but to everyone’s surpise managed to win a silver medal. But from his interview yesterday it’s clear that van de Bunt does not expect to qualify for the games in this event, it’s his ticket to the coming All Round championships (qualification based on 1500/5000 metres times).

 

But it could get very messy, when 1 or 2 outsiders manage to qualify. 

[heywoodu 16,465]

15 hours ago, phelps said:

 

who's this guy?

where does he come out from?

I just can't believe how good/great endurance skaters break out like mushrooms in the

 

A bit of context: he was already quite a big talent, steadily improving (13:10 debut 10k last year for example), but had a bad accident this summer. During a training camp in Andorra, he was cycling and went downhill, when a car was for whatever reason making a 180 in the middle of a turn, which he could simply not avoid anymore (especially on the wet road). Broke several vertebrae, back injury, etc, spent three days in hospital there and still in September he could only do indoor cycling as training. Then he had good national championships in October, especially given the circumstances, but he was nowhere near fully fit yet, which he now certainly seems to be  

[heywoodu 16,465]

And that's Groenewoud beating Beune in the 1500m. Still four to go, including the rather surprising track record holder Femke Kok.

[heywoodu 16,465]

1:53.02 Rijpma-De Jong

1:53.03 Kok

1:53.05 Groenewoud

1:53.22 Beune

 

Wow