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Boxing IOC Olympic Qualifier 2 2024


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I am not very enthusiastic after the draws. You would think the final qualifier will have easier paths, as the best boxers have already qualified, but i don't see easy paths. :d If we get 1 man and 1 woman quotas from the final tournament, i would be happy. 

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

I am not very enthusiastic after the draws. You would think the final qualifier will have easier paths, as the best boxers have already qualified, but i don't see easy paths. :d If we get 1 man and 1 woman quotas from the final tournament, i would be happy

Same thoughts here :d Our hopes mainly rely on Jitaru and Nechita

Edited by zob79

If the lights light up exactly at the correct moment, he was definitely first, since his light went on first. Not sure if those lights are 100% accurate though?

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51 minutes ago, Federer91 said:

I am not very enthusiastic after the draws. You would think the final qualifier will have easier paths, as the best boxers have already qualified, but i don't see easy paths. :d If we get 1 man and 1 woman quotas from the final tournament, i would be happy. 

This is the result of IOC quota cutting policy. Most categories have over 50 boxers. In -71kg there are 70 boxers entered. Boxing is a really universal sport, I can't believe there are so few quotas. 

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Right predictions part 1 of 2 (well at least I really hope I get the rest done tomorrow and it only takes 2 parts)

 

I only got 18/49 (36.7%) right at the first world qualifier so I'm out for redemption this time out although given the high number of entries again I'll be happy enough with 50% which I think would put me over 50% for qualifying as a whole which would be ok I guess. It's interesting and counter-intuitive but it is very clear to me that the biggest factor in the difficulty of predicting these is the number of entries. You wouldn't intuitively think adding ten boxers who aren't likely to qualify would make the division harder to predict but yet it seems to.

 

Anyway, I'll post the 6 weightclasses (W54,W57,W66,M57,M63.5,M71) that start today/ tomorrow (I dunno its 3 am and this tournament starts in four hours, does that count as today or tomorrow) (Friday anyway) now and then hopefully do the rest tomorrow. I'm going stick with the format of predicting each of the four brackets and then addressing box-offs depending on the number of quotas available. I'll also post top 30 rankings for each of these weightclasses on the boxing Olympic rankings thread (Although no one seems to use them, ah sure I'll post them anyway.)

 

North Korea and Mongolia make their return after missing the first world qualifying tournament so basically everyone is here. South Africa is the biggest countries I have noticed aren't competing here but I'm sure I am missing someone.

 

W54kg

 

Quotas- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Sandra Drabik (2) :POL.

Other Contenders- Johana Gomez (5) :VEN, Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (6) :MGL, Scarlett Delgado (8) :CAN, Shera Mae Patricio (9) :USA, Ulzhan Sarsenbek (12) :KAZ.

 

The strongest bracket comfortably in this weightclass with 6 boxers who are legitametely good enough to be at the Olympics. I think Sandra Drabik is the best boxer in this bracket but I have doubts about her ability to be consistent enough to win 4 tough fights in a row. She opens with the only last 64 fight in this division with a tricky enough matchup with Estefani Almanzar(14) :DOM which should set up a tremendous fight with Johana Gomez. The other last 32 fight on this side of this bracket sees Shera Mae Patricio face Kazakh youngster Ulzhan Sarsenbek who is only 18 and surprisingly replaces former Asian Zhaina Shekerbekova :KAZ. As such Sarsenbek must be talented although her results at youth level were good but not elite. The other last 16 fight should see Scarlett Delgado meet Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg provided they can beat Amina Faki (28) :KEN and Mikoto Harada (18) :JPN respectively. Sandra Drabik will be the favourite in any of these fights individually but will be severely tested especially by Gomez and Mungunsetseg and I am very tempted to back Mungunsetseg on account of her easier path to the quota fight.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Im Aeji (3) :KOR.

Other Contenders- Romane Moulai (7) :FRA.

From the strongest bracket to the weakest. Im Aeji probably deserved to qualify at the first world tournament having beaten Hsiao Wen Huang :TPE and being very unfortunate to not get the decision against hometown boxer Sirine Charaabi :ITA. Thankfully she has been granted a pretty easy path to securing her second Olympic appearance this time around meeting Zeina Nassar (21) :GER first up before her toughest fight against Romane Moulai which should decide the quota. Zeynab Rahimova (20) :AZE is drawn against 3 of the weakest boxers here in any division and should easily progess to the quota fight but would likely be outmatched there against Im or Moulai.:ESP

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Hsiao Wen Huang (1) :TPE.

Other Contenders- Bojana Gojkovic (11) :MNE.

For the third time I will back 2023 world champion Hsiao Wen Huang to win a quota and she has a pretty straightforward path to it although I thought that last time as well. Not the easiest fight against American based Perla Bazaldua (16) :MEX before meeting the winner of Melissa Mortesen (19) :DEN and Marta Lopez (17) :ESP. Like the previous bracket Bojana Gojkovic who having tried her luck at 57kg at the first world qualifier returns to bantamweight has a ridiculously easy draw for her first couple of fights but unfortunately Hsiao Wen Huang should await in the quota fight.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Jennifer Lehane (4) :IRL.

Other Contenders- Anastasiia Kovalchuk (10) :UKR, Ekaterina Sycheva (13) :ARM.

It says something about the ridiculous quality of the top bracket that none of these subsequent brackets are that strong. 2022 European champion Anastasiia Kovalchuk has been in awful form over the past year or so and with her being drawn in the same bracket as Jennifer Lehane, heres to hoping that bad form continues for one more tournament. Kovalchuk had a shock loss in her opening fight time in Italy and has been rewarded this time around with an opening fight against the exact same opposition Islem Ferchichi (15) :TUN who is an awkward opponent. Jennifer Lehane should await in the last 16 and unless Kovalchuk has a miraculous return to form that will likely be the end of her Olympic journey this time around at least. Ekaterina Sycheva is the pick of the bottom half of the bracket.

 

W57kg

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Maud Van der Toorn (1) :NED.

Other Contenders- Alyssa Mendoza (7) :USA, Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag (8) :MGL.

60kg world youth champion Maud Van der Toorn will probably end up being a 66kg at some point in her career but was remarkably effective as a massively oversized featherweight at the first world qualifier. She starts off here against Guadalupe Solis (14) :MEX before meeting Marie Al-Ahmadieh (16) :CAN. Al-Ahmadieh’s opening fight is against Josefien Betist (26) :SLE who appears to be Irish having won under 22 and intermediate Irish titles last year but recently won a European under 22 bronze medal with the Netherlands and is here representing Sierra Leone. It would be interesting to see her family tree. At the top of this bracket Alyssa Mendoza meets Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag in what should be a fascinating fight. The winner would then face Olga Papadatou (19) :GRE and Anastasiia Molochko (15) :UKR on their way to a quota fight. Van der Toorn would favoured against either but is still very young and inexperienced.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Xu Zichun (6) :CHN.

Other Contenders- Satsuki Yoshizawa (10) :JPN, Paek Jin Hyang (17) :PRK, Claudia Nechita (11) :ROU.

This should be a competitive bracket without a clear favourite. Xu Zichun fights Paek Jin Hyang who like most of the North Koreans is still largely an unknown quantity before meeting Lucie Sedlackova (18) :CZE. On the other side of the bracket relative youth meets experience with Satsuki Yoshizawa facing Claudia Nechita with the winner meeting either Canan Tas (22) :GER or Szabina Szucs (20) :HUN who are likely to be very evenly matched. Xu is the obvious pick here but the other 3 contenders should all believe they could win this quota.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Elise Glynn (5) :GBR.

Other Contenders- Jaismine (9) :IND.

The Brits and their easy draws. Its insufferable. Elise Glynn should cruise to a quarter final where she is virtually guaranteed to meet Jaismine who was supposed to just be a reserve for Ankushita at 60kg but as a result of Parveen’s suspension for a whereabouts violation she got drafted in at this weightclass. Glynn is better than Jaismine but you never know.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Esra Yildiz (2) :TUR

Other Contenders- Jenifer Fernandez (3) :ESP, Nilawan Techasuep (4) :THA.

Well this one is confusing. Olympian Esra Yilidz looked very good at the first qualifying tournament but lost a month ago to Andela Brankovic (21) :SRB who she now faces in her first fight. The fact that that loss came in Serbia perhaps clears things up a bit though. That would set up a fight with Jenifer Fernandez provided she herself can beat Jin Hye Jeong (13) :KOR. That Yildiz vs Fernandez fight would quite possibly be the most interesting fight in this division. The winner would then likely face hometown boxer Nilawan Techasuep unless she loses to Nikolina Cacic (11) :CRO.

 

W66KG

 

Qualifiers- 4

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick - Kristina Kuluhova (3) :SRB.

Other Contenders- Navbakhor Khamidova (4) :UZB, Leonie Mueller (6) :GER.

Serbia’s latest Russian import starts as favourite here although she is only 20 and is largely unproven. Her path to a quota fight is quite tricky with both Natalya Bogdanova (16) :KAZ and Luna Beeloo (13) :NED capable of causing an upset. The top half of the bracket sees surprise German selection Leonie Mueller who replaces 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge face the winner of Navbakhor Khamidova and experienced pro Joanna Nwamerue (18) :BUL. Khamidova starts as the marginal favourite to beat Mueller and reach the quota fight but while its never a great idea to bet against the the Uzbeks I do think the young Russi.. oh wait Serbian Kuluhova should take this quota.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Anastasia Chernokolenko (12) :UKR.

Other Contenders- Ivanusa Moreira (15) :CPV, Sara Kali (17) :CAN.

Interesting bracket without a clear cut favourite. I’m nervous picking a Ukrainian after the nightmarish performance they had at the first world qualifier but Chernokolenko was the only one to redeem that performance somewhat by at least reaching a quota fight. She should at the very least reach that far again with Saida Lahmidi (20) :MAR the toughest challenge in her path. On the opposite side of the bracket Ivanusa Moreira has to navigate an unknown opponent in Gricelda Duran (21) :MEX before facing Sara Kali in what should be a very competitive fight. If we do indeed get a Chernokolenko vs Moreira quota fight it would be a very tall affair and while it would be disappointing for Cape Verde if a boxer of Moreira's quality fails to qualify I think she will fall just short.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Arundhati Choudhary (2) :IND.

Other Contenders- Emilie Sonvico (5) :FRA, Camila Camilo (8) :COL, Stephanie Pineiro (9) :PUR.

India return to their Asian Games selction of Arundhati Choudhary and while her path to a quota is tough she does start as marginal favourite. First up is Olympian Stephanie Pineiro, before a likely fight against recent European medallist Jessica Triebelova (11) :SVK who Choudhary did beat at Strandja this year. Emilie Sonvico and Camila Camilo should face off for the other spot in the quota fight provided they can navigate fights against Friza Asiko (30) :KEN and Ganzorig Badmaarag (19) :MGL respectively. I’m not sure who wins that fight but Choudhary has beaten Sonvico before. I wouldn’t shocked if any of the four I’ve listed as contenders come through to qualify here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Grainne Walsh (1) :IRL

Other Contenders- Blessing Oraekwe (7) :NGR, Ani Hovsepyan (10) :ARM, Hwang Hyo Sun (14) :PRK.

I was initially very happy with this draw for Grainne Walsh but on second viewing it is a little bit tougher than I had thought. Grainne has a straightforward opener before facing Hyo Sun Hwang whose only fight was a closer than expected loss to world and Asian champion Liu Yang at Asian games especially concerning given the level of favourable judging Chinese boxers typically got at Asian Games so it is possible albeit unlikely that Hwang is Olympic medal calibre. What follows would be an easier fight against Nilufar Boboyorova (29) :TJK. The other half of the bracket is fascinating with 2022 70kg European champion Ani Hovsepyan facing recent African champion Blessing Oraekwe. Oraekwe beat 2022 70kg world silver medallist and soon to be 2 time Olympian Alcinda Panguane :MOZ to win the African games so is clearly talented. The winner of that fight would then face the victor of the New Zealand derby between Cara Wharerau (23) :NZLand Sheilla Yama (22) :PNG who have both beaten eachother in New Zealand in recent years. Grainne Walsh is by far the most proven and safest pick here but the unknown quantities of Hwang and Oraekwe scare me

 

Edited by Ogreman
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M57kg

 

Qualifiers- 3

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Rujakron Juntrong (2) :THA.

Other Contenders- Shamil Askerov (7) :AZE, Munarbek Seitbek Uulu(11) :KGZ, Roland Veres (14) :HUN, Nguyen Van Duong (17) :VIE.

Rujakron Juntrong returns to the Thai selection for his home qualifiers after Sarawet Sukthet :THA was given and nearly took the opportunity at the first world qualifier. His toughest fight may well be against Shamil Askerov who got the nod for selection ahead of Umid Rustamov :AZE. The winner of that fight would then likely face either Pawel Brach (25) :POL or Caleb Tirado (23) :PUR for a spot in the quarter final bout. The other half of the bracket is interesting with opening round fights between Lucas Fernandez (21) :URU and Roland Veres, two Tokyo Olympians in Jean Caicedo (27) :ECUand Van Duong Nguyen and Michele Baldassi (24) :ITA facing Munarbek Seitbekk Uulu. Seitbek Uulu should navigate that fight and the feisty Armando Sigauque (30) :MOZ which would lead to a last 16 fight against Caicedo or Nguyen for the right to probably lose to Juntrong or Askerov although Seitbek Uulu did beat Juntrong back in 2019. I will back the home boxer to come through here but there will be numerous close fights in this bracket.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Asror Vokhidov (3) :TJK.

Other Contenders- Daniyal Shahbakhsh (10) :IRI, Yoel Finol (13) :VEN, Enkh-Amar Kharkhuu (16) :MGL.

Asror Vokhidov despite not qualifying was very impressive at the first world qualifier and while not easy the draw has been fairly kind to him here. His toughest challenge before a quarter final will be against either Yoel Finol or 2022 European youth champion Aider Abduraimov (20) :UKR. The other side of the bracket is nearly a straight fight between Daniyal Shabakhsh and Enkh-amar Kharkhuu but the young Denis Bril (29) :GER could potentially cause an upset in the following round. On current form Vokhidov would be a comfortable favourite to beat either Shabakhsh or Kharkhuu.  

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick-Owain Harris-Allan (4) :GBR.

Other Contenders- Sachin(5) :IND, Samuel Kistohurry (9) :FRA.

India made a bunch of changes to their squad for this tournament after perceived failures at the previous two qualifiers and Bernard Dunne leaving as high-performance director but I don’t really understand this one of returning to Sachin over world bronze medallist Mohammed Hussamuddin :IND and I think it could cost them a quota. Sachin’s path to a quarter final involves either Miguel Vega (18) :MEXor Frederik Lundgaard Jensen (32) :DEN followed by probably Batuhan Ciftci (15) :TUR. The other of the side of this bracket is interesting with Olympian Samuel Kistohurry who returns to the French squad after missing the first two qualifying tournaments having to navigate an awkward opener against George Molwantwa (35) :BOT and then an even awkwarder fight against either Tryagain Ndevelo (22) :NAMor O Tae Bom (26) :PRK. His reward for winning those would be a fight with Owain Harris-Allan who has a couple of tricky openers himself. I think Harris-Allan is in the better form than Kistohurry. To be fair to Sachin he did take an impressive tournament win at Strandja and I don’t know which way a fight between him and the Brit would go. Then again I would have picked Hussamuddin if he was here.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Carlo Paalam (1) :PHI.

Other Contenders- Yousef Iashash (6) :JOR, Artur Bazeyan (8) :ARM, Jose de los Santos (12) :DOM.

Olympic 52kg silver medallist Carlo Paalam was unlucky at the first qualifier with a bodyslam againt Andrey Bonilla :MEX leaving him with basically one arm for his subsequent fight against Shukur Ovezov (19) :TKM and he will almost immediately get the chance to avenge that loss with him likely to meet with Ovezov again in the last 32. 2022 European champion Artur Bazeyan has been terrible so far in his attempts at qualifying but has the chance to right that somewhat here with a fascinating encounter with Yousef Iashash who has beaten Bazeyan before provided they can both navigate relatively straightforward opening fights. Iashash is a surprise selection for the Jordanian team given Mohamed abu Jajeh :JORtalents but Iashash is an accomplished boxer in his own right. It is tough to see either Iashash or Bazeyan beating Paalam but you never know. Jose de los Santos only has to beat 54kg African champion Amadu Mohamed (31) :GHA and Ping Lyu (28) :CHN to presumably reach the quarter finals but like Iashash and Bazeyan is likely to be outmatched against Paalam although that should be a very entertaining fight

 

Box-offs

 

Rujakron Juntrong vs Asror Vokhidov, Carlo Paalam vs Owain Harris-Allan

 

Quota prediction- Rujakron Juntrong :THA, Carlo Paalam :PHI, Asror Vokhidov :TJK.

I am confident in picking Paalam but the top semifinal is a coin flip for me maybe leaning Juntrong with home advantage. I do think either would beat Harris-Allan though.

 

M63.5kg

 

Qualifiers- 5

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick-Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (1) :MGL

Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexandru Paraschiv (12) :MDA.

Other Contenders- Radoslaw Rosenov (3) :BUL.

First of all a word for the poor John Ume (NR) :PNG and Mikael Broman (NR) :SWEwho with 65 entries are the unfortunate pair who have to box a last 128 fight. I think Ume will win that one. Anyway the top half of this bracket is quite barren with a last 32 fight between recent European silver medallist Alexandru Paraschiv and Louis Richarno Colin (19) :MRI likely to decide who reaches a quota fight although Abdelhaq Nadir (22) :MAR may have something to say about that in the subsequent round. Asian games champion Chinzorig Baatarsukh :MGL has been suspended for doping but Mongolia have a worthy candidate to attempt to take his place in 2 time Olympian and former world bronze medallist Erdenebat Tsendbaatar. He does have to navigate an early matchup with Saparmyat Odayev (21) :TKM to set up a high quality last 16 fight with Radoslav Rosenov who himself has to beat David Grevorgkian (16) :GER. It is strange that a boxer of Rosenov’s calibre is an underdog in the final qualifying tournament but he has had his chances to qualify. That should be one of the fights of the tournament and the victor should win the  quota from this bracket.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Emilio Garcia (6) :USA

Projected losing quarter finalist- Ali Habibinezhad (9) :IRI.

Other Contenders- Joseph Commey (14) :GHA, Oier Ibarreche (20) :ESP.

Emilio Garcia has been given a pretty easy draw with just commonwealth 57kg silver medallist Joseph Commey in his path to a quota fight. There Garcia should meet recent Elorda cup champion Ali Habibinezhad provided he can  come through Jonas Jonas (27) :NAM and Oier Ibarreche. Not the most interesting bracket but Garcia vs Habibinezhad should be fun.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Erislandy Alvarez (2) :CUB.

Projected losing quarter finalist- Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (4) :KAZ.

Other Contenders- Viliam Tanko (10) :SVK.

Some interesting fights here but like the second bracket unlikely to be too exciting before the quota fight. Erislandy Alvarez has fights against the unproven Cleisson dos Santos (25) :BRA and probably Yaroslav Khartysz (15) :UKR. Meanwhile Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu matches up against Chriztian Pitt Laurente (30) :PHI, the physical Narek Hovhannisyan (24) :ARMand likely Viliam Tanko who himself has to beat Gianluigi Malanga(18) :ITA. Alvarez vs Bazarbay Uulu should be a really good fight but Alvarez is the more talented boxer.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Shion Nishiyama (8) :JPN

Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexy de la Cruz (5) :DOM.

Other Contenders- Jose Viafara (7) :COL, Aleksej Sendrik (11) :SRB, Malik Hasanov (13) :AZE, Patris Mughalzai (17) :GBR.

Alexy de la Cruz and Jose Viafara are the clear cut favourites here but that was also true previously in this qualification cycle and neither converted those opportunities plus there are enough other tricky opponents to make this one quite interesting. First up for Viafara is Patris Mughalzai who earned the British selection by right on this occasion by beating 2021 world bronze medallist Reece Lynch :GBR who was injured earlier this season. Next up for Viafara is Abhinash Jamwal (26) :IND who is a complete unknown internationally. Alexy de la Cruz needs to beat Aleksej Sendrik who himself caused an upset beating Rosenov in Busto Arsizio to set up a fight with Viafara. Alexy de la Cruz has won this matchup before so starts as favourite although his recent form has been concerning. Shion Nishiyama impressed at the previous qualification tournament and only really has Malik Hasanov or Chol Man Choe (23) :PRK between him and the quota fight. I trust Nishiyama to make it that far and I don’t trust de la Cruz or Viafara so I’m going to hedge my bets a bit and just pick Nishiyama who could beat either of them anyway.

 

Box-offs

 

Alexandru Paraschiv vs Ali Habibinezhad, Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu Vs Alexy de la Cruz

 

I know this a pointless exercise because I’ll be shocked if more than 1 of these losing quarterfinalists are correct but while all these fights will be close I do think Bazarbay Uulu is the safest pick probably beating Habibinezhad in the quota fight.

 

Projected quotas- Erdenebat Tsendbaatar :MGL, Emilio Garcia :USA, Erislandy Alvarez :CUB, Shion Nishiyama :JPN, Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu :KAZ.

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M71kg

 

Qualifiers- 5

 

Bracket 1

 

My pick- Shamser Shaidov (6) :TJK.

Projected losing quarter finalist- Aidan Walsh (4) :IRL.

Other Contenders- Zeyad Eashash (2) :JOR, Eskerkhan Madiev (9) :GEO, Yurii Zakharieiev (5) :UKR.

First of all 70 entries is ludicrous and I do think some countries underestimated the quality that would still be left in the draw at this tournament. Anyway, I’ve officially given up on 2021 world champion Yurii Zakharieiev. I've picked him twice and he has failed me twice so while I still believe he probably is the most talented boxer in this bracket he will not fail me again. Of course given that he is now up against Irish opposition I’m sure he will all of sudden be back to his best. He has an awkward opening fight against Merven Clair (27) :MRI leading up to a likely last 16 fight with Aidan Walsh provided Walsh can beat either Youcef Yaiche (33) :ALG or Salvatore Cavallaro (39) :ITA. Walsh may or may not be in form, I have no idea what to expect from him really but I trust him more than Zakharieiev right now. The top half of this bracket is strong with Zeyad Eashash opening his account against 2021 world bronze medallist Alban Beqiri (23) :ALB before a likely fight against Kelvin Soquessa (29) :CZE. Meanwhile recent European silver medallist Eskerkhan Madiev has to navigate two opening fights before meeting the winner of surprise German selection Deniel Krotter (18) :GER and recent Elorda cup winner Shamser Shaidov who is Russian but apparently was born in Tajikistan. Shaidov has mixed results in Russia and therefore is hard to guage and it is possible he comes unstuck especially against Eashash but like Walsh and Zakharieiev I don’t exactly trust Eashash either. This is a bit of a projection and its possible this prediction looks terrible in a weeks time but as I said I don’t really trust Shaidov's competition.

 

Bracket 2

 

My pick- Wanderson de Oliveira (3) :BRA.

Projected losing quarter finalist- Jorge Cuellar (7) :CUB.

Other Contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) :POL, Sarkhan Aliyev (11) :AZE, Steve Kulenguluka (15) :COD, Frederick Kiwitt (20) :LBR.

A fascinating group of contenders here with Wanderson the slight favourite amongst them. His second fight against Stephen Zimba (35) :ZAM or Bruno Fernandes de Barros (34) :CPV won’t be easy but his first major test should come in the last 16 against Sarkhan Aliyev or Damian Durkacz. Steve Kulenguluka was robbed of the African quota and it is good to see he at least gets a second bite at the cherry here. He will likely meet Jorge Cuellar although Cuellar does have to beat pro WBF world champion Frederick Kiwitt. I hope Kulenguluka can come through this fight but I’ll go with the safer pick and pick Cuellar. I am picking Wanderson to qualify here but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a shock or two in this bracket.

 

Bracket 3

 

My pick- Nishant Dev (1) :IND.

Projected losing quarter finalist- Gurgen Madoyan (19) :ARM.

Other Contenders- Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar (12) :MGL, Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (16) :TKM.

The draw has been pretty kind to Nishant Dev and not all that much stands between him and a quota. His toughest fight before a quota match will be in the last 32 against the winner of Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov and Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar. He would then face Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (31) :KGZ or Peerapat Yesungoen (24) :THA in the following round. The identity of who he would then face him is up in the air with Gurgen Madoyan starting as slight favourite over Junior Petanqui (25) :CAN, Vasile Cebotari (26) :MDA, Kim Il Hyok (30) :PRK and maybe even Nidal Foqahaa. None of them stand much of a chance against Nishant though.

 

Bracket 4

 

My pick- Lewis Richardson (8) :GBR.

Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexander Rangel (14) :COL.

Other Contenders- Kasra Tahmasebi (13) :IRI, Angel Llanos (17) :PUR.

It pains me that Lewis Richardson got this good a draw. He will have some challenges against the relatively unknown Kasra Tahmasebi before meeting Miroslav Kapuler (28) :ISR or Tiago Muxanga (21) :MOZ prior to a tough enough quota fight. Alexander Rangel is the likely opposition in that quota fight but he does have to beat Angel Llanos or Sergio Martinez (22) :ESP. It would be a major failure for the British if Richardson can’t come through here.

 

Box offs

 

Aidan Walsh vs Jorge Cuellar, Gurgen Madoyan vs Alexander Rangel.

 

I would back Rangel to beat Madoyan but I’m not so sure about Walsh vs Cuellar. I think I would lean towards Walsh and I think either would go on to beat Rangel

Quota prediction- Shamser Shaidov :TJK, Wanderson de Oliveira :BRA, Nishant Dev :IND, Lewis Richardson :GBR, Aidan Walsh :IRL.

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    • When? I understand this is a joke about this great job 
    • The same thing happened after Turin 2006. That hall later was never used for skating competitions again, only the Indoor ECH in athletics was organized there once in 2009 and that was it. After that it was only used for commercial fairs etc. It will be the same with Milan. Regarding the indoor arena in Collalbo, it was a great idea to make it an Italian center of skating sports for many years: good location, high altitude, tourist town. Well, but according to the organizers, it`s not worth doing it, but why? Why is`t not worth doing anything here but Germany has a similar track in Inzell and it is possible there? They should hire a good manager who will develop a plan for them to make it worth doing. The same is with the bobsleigh track in Cortina. It was also not worth renovating it and if Salvini's and other big politics and determination hadn`t come into it, the competition would probably have been in Austria or St. Moritz.   The cooperation with the Netherlands is probably only supposed to concern short track. Besides, this cooperation will not do anything if we don`t have at least one indoor track for training in the summer and early autumn. The Dutch Federation isn`t a charity and will not build us infrastructure for free so that we can train on it. There are no miracles. It`s probably more about taking advantage of the opportunity to train with someone like Fontana, who is a legend in short track. After 2026 this cooperation will end, when she leaves.
    • For Ghiotto to win 2 golds at the Olympics, he would have to be the second van der Poel or Sablikova in they pick of form. You have to be a genius to beat this whole coalition of Norwegians, Dutchmen etc. However, I don't see that much talent in him. I'd like to be wrong, but I'm afraid that he'll end up with some silver-bronze in the 10 km and that's it. If he starts losing to Eitrem now, who is 22 years old, it won't bode well for the future, and there's also Roest + maybe another Dutchman will jump out. Generally, our team is poorly prepared for this season and it's not like Ghiotto is on individual training on the moon and has just come down to earth and will now win everything while the rest of the team are in terrible form. Of course, the lack of form of Bosa or Trentini means e.g. 20th place, not 10th, but for Ghiotto it could mean 4/5 place, instead of 1st. It's the same with the team. For today, the only positive performance for us is Lollobrigida's 2nd place in the b category of the women's 1500 meters and Fontana's solid performance in the same event. The rest is terrible.
    • Costantini & Mosaner will back to play together for the frist time since Beijing 2022 Our NOC and Federation do an amazing work.
    • Right now I’m watching Scotland-Switzerland at the European Curling Championships, even though Germany-Norway would probably be a more interesting game… (can’t find any streaming options for it)   At 4:00am Scotland-Italy in the women’s bronze medal match, and at 9:00am TBD-TBD in the men’s bronze medal match   We’ll see if I’ll have enough time for the Davis Cup, Women’s/Men’s Slalom WC Gurgul, Skeleton WC Yanqing, BPT Challenge Chennai, BWF China Masters, WTT Finals Fukuoka, GSOC Kioti National, Freestyle Skiing WC Beijing, Alpine Skiing WC Killington, Moguls WC Ruka   Also will be following along with the Canadian Curling Olympic Mixed Doubles Qualifier, UCI Champions League Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Open Water WC Neom, Luge WC Lillehammer/Cross Country WC Ruka, Ski Jumping WC Ruka   Friday (November 22) 4:30 PM: NBA - Warriors v. Pelicans 8:00 PM: ISU Speed Skating World Cup Nagano - Day 2 10:00 PM: European Curling Championships - Women’s Gold Medal Match   Saturday (November 23) 5:00 AM: European Curling Championships - Men’s Gold Medal Match 4:00 PM: NHL - Canucks v. Senators 8:00 PM: ISU Speed Skating World Cup Nagano - Day 3   Sunday (November 24)   Monday (November 25) 7:00 PM: NBA - Warriors v. Nets   Tuesday (November 26) 4:00 PM: NHL - Canucks v. Bruins   Wednesday (November 27) 4:30 PM: NHL - Canucks v. Penguins 7:00 PM: NBA - Warriors v. Thunder   Thursday (November 28)   Friday (November 29) 1:00 AM: ISU Speed Skating WC Beijing - Day 1 10:00 AM: UCI Track Cycling Nations League Apeldoorn - Day 1 12:00 PM: NHL - Canucks v. Sabres
    • As far as I am concerned, there are two very simple problems: infrastructure and the lack of cooperation between sports federations. Let me explain. The MiCo2026 Olympics will provide virtually no legacy in ice sports, there is still a lack of an indoor hall, there is no federal centre that has been promised for so many years. It could have been an opportunity to make a nice roof in Baselga di Pinè, but instead they preferred to make temporary facilities in Rho.   The second problem is the total lack of cooperation between roller skating and speed skating, we have a huge pool and we are not exploiting it. Fortunately we are doing a few small collegiate events, the technical collaboration with the Netherlands absolutely must be exploited.   I am not so negative however about the current situation, Ghiotto practically on the 10k seems to be off the scale (watch out for the Czech and Norwegian) and he can medal in the 5k and drag the pursuit team. In the mass start you have more cards in both the men's and women's, let's see what Fontana does. And a Fontana-Peveri-Lollobrigida pursuit team can also play for a third place
    • Canada Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2026 Milano Cortina   Ski Sports   Alpine Skiing  (13) - That's been the team size the last couple of Olympics so it's a safe bet again. Cross Country Skiing  (10) - Not too familiar with the qualification system. Probably around 6 men and 4 women. Ski Jumping  (5) - Loutitt, Strate and Maurer for sure on the women's side. Possibly a 4th will qualify. On the men's side, if Bowd-Clowes returns, then he should also qualify. Nordic Combined  (0) - Been a nonexistent sport for a while. No athletes competing in the World Cup or Continental Cup. Freestyle Skiing  (32) - Should qualify a team in mixed aerials which means a maximum team size of 32 athletes. Which athletes in which disciplines to be determined. Snowboarding  (24) - Full teams in slopestyle and big air. Then somewhere between 1-4 athletes in the other disciplines. Biathlon  (6) - Based on the Nations Cup last year, the men finished outside the top 20 and wouldn't qualify a relay team (and that's without Russia and Belarus). With Christian Gow's retirement, that makes things even more difficult. Women's relay should still qualify though. Ski Mountaineering  (1) - Gonna be optimistic here and say that one athlete will qualify either through the World Rankings or continental quota.     Skating Sports   Speed Skating  (16) - 7 to 8 men, 8 to 9 women. For now, I'll say 8 of each gender. Short Track Speed Skating  (10) - Full team size. With the current skill level of the team, anything else would be a tragedy. Figure Skating  (12) - Most likely 1 man (I hope) and 1 woman, then 2-3 pairs and 2-3 ice dance couples. For now, let's say 2 in pairs and 3 in ice dance.     Sleigh Sports   Luge  (7) - 2 women + 1 entry in each of the other disciplines Skeleton  (4) - 1 or 2 men + 2 or 3 women Bobsleigh  (14) - 2 men's crews (in both events) and 3 women's crews (in both events)     Team Sports   Curling  (12) - Full team or else you might as well burn the federation to the ground. Ice Hockey  (48) - Both men's and women's teams already qualified       Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (229) Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (184)   Total Realistic Prediction  -  (214)
    • Besides, I think Eitrem will be better than Ghiotto. You can see it after 1500 meters. He is younger. The whole Norwegian team is also in great shape. You just have to look at the team Norway has, how many new and young skaters there are and in our group A there is one Trentini, who takes last place. In every winter sport we invest too little money to be counted.   If Eitrem has the same form over long distances as he does over 1500 metres, he will dominate this season, not Ghiotto or Roest.
    • Looking at last season's 1st World Cup, it's worse for now and it should be the other way around. Bosa out of shape, Trentini weak. Both will drop to a lower group. It's similar to skeleton, i.e. regression instead of progress. I hope this doesn't mean Ghiotto is also in weaker form, because it could end up with 0 podiums this weekend.
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