Rowing at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Ogreman 355]

https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paris-2024-Olympic-Regatta-entry-list.pdf

 

Entries have been released.

 

Ukraine apparently rejected their W1x quota from the European qualification regatta which got Nina Kostanjsek  in and an extra universality quota was added in the M1x and allocated to .

 

Otherwise as expected except for Romania who have made a whole bunch of changes to their Europeans squad which itself was significantly changed from last year.

The big headline is that they broke up the Olympic and back to back world champion women's double!!!! with Andrada-Maria Morosanu replacing Simona Radis who is still selected in the women's eight. 

 

They also aren't doubling up anyone with their four and pairs typically having doubled up in their eights over the last couple of years but not so for the Olympics. Seemingly prioritising their eights over definitely their respective fours. The priorities with regards to their pairs are a bit more ambigous with Nicu Chelaru and Denisa Tilvescu moving from their eights to their pairs joining Florin Arteni and Ioana Vrinceanu with Florin Lehaci and Roxana Anghel moving the other way to their eights. Tilvescu and Vrinceanu were together in the pair in 2022 and came 4th so should still be medal favourites in the womens pair but harder to know with the men's pair.

[MantaRaymarc 132]

On 7/13/2024 at 6:30 AM, Ogreman said:

https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paris-2024-Olympic-Regatta-entry-list.pdf

 

Entries have been released.

 

Ukraine apparently rejected their W1x quota from the European qualification regatta which got Nina Kostanjsek  in and an extra universality quota was added in the M1x and allocated to .

 

Otherwise as expected except for Romania who have made a whole bunch of changes to their Europeans squad which itself was significantly changed from last year.

The big headline is that they broke up the Olympic and back to back world champion women's double!!!! with Andrada-Maria Morosanu replacing Simona Radis who is still selected in the women's eight. 

 

They also aren't doubling up anyone with their four and pairs typically having doubled up in their eights over the last couple of years but not so for the Olympics. Seemingly prioritising their eights over definitely their respective fours. The priorities with regards to their pairs are a bit more ambigous with Nicu Chelaru and Denisa Tilvescu moving from their eights to their pairs joining Florin Arteni and Ioana Vrinceanu with Florin Lehaci and Roxana Anghel moving the other way to their eights. Tilvescu and Vrinceanu were together in the pair in 2022 and came 4th so should still be medal favourites in the womens pair but harder to know with the men's pair.

Hungary has also added a quota to the men's single sculls.

[zob79 189]

On 7/13/2024 at 1:30 AM, Ogreman said:

https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paris-2024-Olympic-Regatta-entry-list.pdf

 

Entries have been released.

 

Otherwise as expected except for Romania who have made a whole bunch of changes to their Europeans squad which itself was significantly changed from last year.

The big headline is that they broke up the Olympic and back to back world champion women's double!!!! with Andrada-Maria Morosanu replacing Simona Radis who is still selected in the women's eight. 

 

They also aren't doubling up anyone with their four and pairs typically having doubled up in their eights over the last couple of years but not so for the Olympics. Seemingly prioritising their eights over definitely their respective fours. The priorities with regards to their pairs are a bit more ambigous with Nicu Chelaru and Denisa Tilvescu moving from their eights to their pairs joining Florin Arteni and Ioana Vrinceanu with Florin Lehaci and Roxana Anghel moving the other way to their eights. Tilvescu and Vrinceanu were together in the pair in 2022 and came 4th so should still be medal favourites in the womens pair but harder to know with the men's pair.

Dunno what idiot sent those entries and what can be the purpose; maybe, in the old communist tradition, they thought of tricking their opponents  I can tell you that our crews will be those that competed at last year's WC; you may believe me or not  Who would break up a two times world champion crew and reigning Olympic champion? and why?

Edited July 14 by zob79

[Ogreman 355]

4 hours ago, zob79 said:

Dunno what idiot sent those entries and what can be the purpose; maybe, in the old communist tradition, they thought of tricking their opponents  I can tell you that our crews will be those that competed at last year's WC; you may believe me or not  Who would break up a two times world champion crew and reigning Olympic champion? and why?

Ah fair enough. Presumably its a maximising the number of athletes they could take thing then.

Surely it is the same as the Europeans squad though not last year's worlds cause like you changed your men's double and your lightweight women's double since last year and that is what is entered here. 

 

Then again you must have made some changes though as your quads are now different to both Europeans and last years worlds so it can't just be the exact same squad.

 

I'll believe you that your sweep squad will actually double up and not to trust the entries in the fours/pairs but your sculling squad has to pretty much be as entered with the probable exception of Simona Radis. Then again it is not typically Olympic and double world champions but world champion crews getting broken up the following year does happen and they did lose at Europeans. Ireland's lightweight double in 2019 is what immediately springs to mind. GB men's/ women's fours last year I guess but I know bigger boats are different. Also a slightly different situation but the French Olympic and 2022 world championship double have barely raced together this Olympic cycle. Split themselves into singles for most of 2022 and then Matheiu Androdias didn't race last year. It may not have happened here but there is precedence for selections like this.

 

Could you post it here if they have/ do announce a different squad?

 

Couple of other things I noticed on review, Norway selected Kjetil Borch in the double after he failed to qualify the single and China left old Zhang Liang out of their double which is curious.

Edited July 14 by Ogreman

[Fulvio 0]

When the heat will be announced?

[zob79 189]

5 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Could you post it here if they have/ do announce a different squad?

Yes, of course. 

 

I see your point regarding crew split-ups, but those kind of things don't happen in an Olympic year, and definitely not to a team unbeaten for 4 years.

 

Edited July 14 by zob79

[BruT06 45]

Rowing heats are out!

 

[Ogreman 355]

Olympics form guide/ projections

 

M1X

W1X

M2-

W2-

M2X

W2X

LM2X

LW2X

M4-

W4-

M4X

W4X

M8+

W8+

1

GER

NED

GBR

NED

NED

ROU

IRL

GBR

USA

GBR

NED

GBR

GBR

ROU

2

NED

AUS

ROU

AUS

IRL

LTU

SUI

NZL

NZL

NED

POL

NED

NED

USA

3

NZL

NZL

SUI

ROU

ROU

USA

ITA

USA

GBR

ROU

ITA

CHN

USA

CAN

4

GRE

USA

CRO

IRL

ESP

AUS

FRA

ROU

AUS

USA

GBR

USA

ROU

AUS

5

AIN

AIN

ESP

DEN

GER

NOR

NOR

CAN

ITA

NZL

SUI

UKR

AUS

GBR

6

DEN

SRB

IRL

GRE

ITA

IRL

UKR

IRL

FRA

CHN

GER

GER

GER

ITA

7

CRO

GER

RSA

USA

NZL

NZL

ESP

FRA

NED

IRL

ROU

SUI

ITA

DEN

8

ROU

AUT

USA

LTU

FRA

FRA

GRE

GRE

ROU

AUS

NOR

ROU

9

USA

ESP

NZL

CZE

USA

CHN

CZE

CHN

SUI

DEN

EST

AUS

10

JPN

SUI

ITA

ESP

SRB

CZE

BEL

POL

11

BUL

LTU

AUS

NZL

NOR

NED

MEX

AUT

12

LTU

BUL

LTU

CHI

CHN

ITA

JPN

TUN

13

BEL

UZB

GER

GBR

CRO

GBR

UZB

JPN

14

BRA

AZE

CHI

IRI

15

SLO

RSA

ARG

PER

16

HUN

SLO

EGY

ARG

17

MON

MEX

18

URU

TUR

19

EGY

BRA

20

TUN

PAR

21

CUB

ALG

22

BER

IRI

23

IND

PER

24

PAR

UGA

25

KAZ

PHI

26

ALG

VIE

27

INA

CUB

28

ZIM

TOG

29

HKG

NCA

30

LBA

SGP

31

THA

MAR

32

SUD

KUW

33

ANG

 

So I have done similar exercises to this before. It is not quite a pure form guide but its not quite predictions either, somewhere in between. Proved quite accurate at worlds last year but then not so hot for FOQR so we will see. I know its quite late as well and would have been more useful earlier this week but anyway, we got there. I didn't spend as much time as I would have liked on these so I don't think they will be as accurate as they were for worlds last year.

Edited July 27 by Ogreman
Wrote SUD in twice for M1x

[Ogreman 355]

So I wanted to expand on my rankings a bit. Not my best work (and certainly not one my old English teacher would have proud of) but hopefully there is some useful shit somewhere in here

 

Women’s Singles

 

Everytime I look at this boatclass my heart just breaks for Sanita Puspure  and that FOQR race.

Anyway, this podium at least seems fairly set. Florijn  hasn’t lost all cycle and really the intrigue here is who wins the battle for silver between Emma Twigg  and Tara Rigney . Things go wrong in the singles though so and the battle behind is fierce. Kara Kohler  was fourth last year and seems the safest pick but hasn’t had the form this season missing the A final at world cup ii. Tatsiana Klimovich  has looked fairly impressive this season being the closest to the top 3 at world cup ii and Jovana Arsic  won Europeans and accordingly for me both rank in the top 6. You can make strong A final cases for Alexandra Foester , Magdalena Lobnig , Virginia Diaz Rivas  and even just about Aurelia Maxima Janzen  but results have been all over the place this season.

 

Men’s Singles

 

So Simon van Dorp  got the better of Oliie Zeidler  at world cup ii having lost to him at the first world cup but I would still have to back Ollie as favourite here. Tom Mackintosh  is a solid favourite for the podium as well. Ntouskos  is never the most consistent but second at Europeans was encouraging, world cup ii, not so much. Yaheni Zalaty  has impressed this season while Sverri Nielsen  and Damir Martin  as always have looked solid and safe bets for the A final. It will be interesting to see how Mihai Chiruta  and Jacob Plihal  go after an almighty battle to qualify from FOQR. Ryuta Arakawa  had a rough time of things at world cup iii and looks unlikely to improve or even replicate his 8th place from last year. Kristian Vasilev , Gedrius Beliauskas  and Tim Brys would all be disappointed to miss the semis but have a battle on their hands to make it that far.

 

Women’s Pair

 

In theory the most predictable of all these boat classes with Netherlands, Australia, Romania and Ireland fairly locked into the top four and in that order. That said it is rare than the script goes that smoothly and Netherlands will be only boat happy with the current status quo. Denmark had a disastrous world champs last year but have looked impressive this year winning FOQR relatively comfortably and bronzes at world cups i and iii. Greece are European silver medallists and if anyone breaks into the top four then it is probably them. The USA have changed and in theory weakened their combination here and but still sit at the top of the next tier albeit in what could be a very close battle for finishing positions in the B final. Lithuania haven’t raced this year as a combination since their 8^th place finish last year and there is nothing between Czechia, Spain, New Zealdand and GB’s new combination. Chile are the interesting ones having finished a surprise 5^th at worlds last year, they have largely struggled this year though. A repeat of their A final last year is tough to see but it would be disappointing if they don’t at least finish in the middle of the B final.

 

Men’s Pair

 

So for the third straight year this British combination starts off as favourites in this event. Both of the previous year they have ultimately been beaten, by Romania in 2022 and the Swiss last year. Romania have changed their pair since a disappointing fourth last year and took second at Europeans ahead of the Swiss who have been consistently on the podium this year but haven’t quite shown the form that led them to the world title last year. The Sinkovic’s gamble to move back into the pair does not appeared to have worked although we don’t know where they would be had they stayed in the double. If anything this ranking is generation to them. The Spanish only finished in the B final at Europeans but sprinted through the Swiss to take silver at world cup ii. Ireland are a strange one as they developed ahead of schedule to win bronze at the world championships last year but have had a very disrupted season, with their only race together being a disappointing 7^th at world cup i after an injury and illness affected build up. If they can regain their form though, they could jump back into medal contention in a hurry. South Africa were surprise finalists last year but potentially look capable of backing up that performance having nearly taken a medal at world cup iii. There is very little between the USA, New Zealand, Italy and Australia with all four having performances that hint at being capable of contending for spots in the A final but they also kind of have to be ranked down here. This is a rare boat class where I have the 2 FOQR boats ranked last. Lithuania have some pedigree over the last couple of years but the Germans came out of nowhere to upset the much more established combinations from Denmark and the Netherlands to qualify.

  

Women’s Double

 

So a boat class that wasn’t all that interesting coming into the season, all of a sudden is incredibly tough to predict. Romania lost for the first time since 2019 at Europeans although you would have to back them to be back in prime form for the Olympics. Lithuania have pushed them the closest over the last couple of years although they were pipped by Norway at Europeans and then finished towards the back of the B final at world cup ii so it’s very hard to know what Lithuania will show up. The US are bronze medallists from last year and look in reasonable shape to retain that status after narrowly coming through Australia and Norway to win the aforementioned second world cup. Australia and Norway have both flown up the rankings since moving Harriet Hudson and Inger Seim Kavlie respectively into this boat with Australia narrowly getting the better of the head to head at world cup ii and iii although Norway’s win at Europeans was the most impressive of the lot. Ireland’s young double came very close to medalling last year and come into this regatta a little under the radar after slipping in A finals to fifth at Europeans and fourth world cup ii. Having said that they had beaten Australia and Norway in the heats/semis at world cup ii and I would quietly fancy their chances of a medal here. New Zealand were fifth last year and performed significantly better at worlds than their prior form last year so shouldn’t be counted out of the medal picture. It’s very close beyond that with France having brought Elodie Scaramozzino into the boat after their A final combination from last year failed to fire earlier in the season. The other six boats could really all conceivably finish in any order and there have only been a second or two between them all season. China’s A final appearance at world cup ii and Czechia fourth place at Europeans means they rank slightly higher than Netherlands, Italy and GB.

 

Men’s Double

 

The Dutch are significant favourites but it is a very tough field to judge beyond that. Romania’s new combination of Cornea and Enache came out of their quad last year and won Europeans comfortably but actually lost in the heats there to Germany. Ireland won bronze last year and bronze this year at world cup i behind the Dutch and Italy although Italy beat Ireland early last season as well. Ireland then beat Germany and New Zealand at world cup iii. Speaking of Italy, they have moved Luca Rambaldi into there quad in place of Nicolo Carucci so despite their silver at world cup i and ii they probably are fielding a slightly weaker combination. Spain and Germany were within half a second of each other at Europeans and both have had successful medal winning seasons so far. France’s global champions in 22 and 23 have struggled this year with 5ths at world cups ii and iii. USA comfortably took FOQR and could push on towards an A final. Serbia’s combination with Pimenov in the double instead of the single has only raced FOQR but only narrowly beat an Australian boat who then struggled at world cup iii. Norway have thrown this double together with Kjetil Borch joining Martin Helseth, having moved their original double into a quad. Borch was just starting to find his form at FOQR so there is hope for this boat. China came 6^th in this boat class last year but with Sulitan Adilijiang now joining Zhiyu Lu in the boat in place of Zhang Liang, it’s hard to see this boat being successful. They both were part of the quad that came 9^th at FOQR. The Loncaric twins did really well to qualify the pair but have been forced into this boat by the wishes of the Sinkovic brothers and have unsurprisingly struggled.

 

Women’s Lightweight Double

 

This GB double are obviously the biggest favourites in any boat class at this regatta. New Zealand have impressed this season with silver at world cup ii and winning world cup iii. The US have won silver the last couple of years but struggled a bit at world cup ii. Romania have put their 2018 world champion combination back together and did win Europeans but no France/ Ireland and Emily Craig was missing from the British boat. France did well to win FOQR but have struggled at recent world champs compared with how they performed during the season. Ireland haven’t had a great season but part of me still believes they have a medal ceiling. Greece are good and young so could surprise and make the A final. Canada are solid but I wanted to rank them lower here. China didn’t have a great world cup ii and are unlikely to replicate their A final performance from last year. Poland should be competitive despite qualifying via the continental qualifiers. (This wasn’t exactly the smoothest written paragraph in the world, aye?)

 

Men’s Lightweight Double

 

So the most interesting race this year was world cup ii where the 5 times consecutive global champions Ireland were pushed narrowly into third by Switzerland and Italy. While this was an encouraging results for both the Swiss and Italians it should be noted that Ireland have typically significantly extended their margin of victory between there mid-season form and world championships over the last few years so are still significant favourites to win here. Although both Switzerland and Italy look like they will be tough to dislodge off the podium. France are an interesting one as they actually beat Ireland in a photo finish at world cup iii last year and then had a disastrous world championships. They recovered to narrowly win FOQR over the Greeks but their only other race this season was winning world cup iii where the only other Olympic boat in the field was Mexico. Norway have made multiple podiums this season and should really make it back to the A final. Ukraine won the European qualifying regatta in their only race of the season but look to have recovered from their bad form last year after winning world bronze in 2022. Spain, Czechia and Belgium have all beaten each other this year and will feel a bit hard done by to not be ranked in the top 6. 9^th is especially harsh on Czechia as they have made the last 3 global finals but its hard to rank them higher based off this year’s formguide. Greece stuck right with France at FOQR but having faded badly at world championships last year, I’m not falling for them again. Mexico had a very impressive seventh last year but based off this year alone just making the B final would be positive.

 

Women’s Four

 

GB take the favourites tag with wins over Romania at Europeans and Netherlands at world cup i and ii. Netherlands are reigning world champions though and were middle of the pack during the world cup season last year before coming through to win at worlds against a slightly different British crew so the Dutch could repeat that feat. That fact also gives them the benefit of the doubt over Romania who were a second closer to the Brits at Europeans than the Dutch were at world cup ii although inferring anything from that kind of margin is probably silly. On paper medals look fairly safe with new American and New Zealand combinations at least not yet showing the form to dislodge any of the three medallists from last year. On paper the US combination looks weaker than their fourth place last year but bronze at world cup ii sets them up to repeat that particular result. The Kiwis were 7^th last year but bring in former world and Olympic champion Kerri Williams and won world cup iii albeit against lesser competition.

Australia have shifted the focus to their eight and this boat is weaker as a consequence and they were way off the pace at world cup ii but edged out the Danes at world cup iii. The Irish combination has been narrowly ahead of the Danes at world cup I and FOQR but 7-9^th is a three way toss-up. All 3 though will hope they can topple China and sneak into an A final.

 

Men’s Four

 

Gb dominated this Olympic cycle but haven’t had a great season losing world cup i to Italy and then getting well beaten by last year’s silver and bronze medallists USA and New Zealand at world cup ii. Australia’s significantly changed combination were also close behind the Brits at world cup ii and marginally beat them in the heats. Italy qualified well at FOQR and having beaten the Dutch and the French earlier in the season but may have had an earlier peak so it is far from guaranteed they make the A final. Netherlands after finishing fourth last season have largely struggled. Romania have made one change to their Europeans crew with Sergiu Bejan coming in for Mugurel Semciuc. Bejan himself and Stefan Berariu are down to double up. The Swiss do rank last but are not that far behind the field here.

 

Women’s Quad

 

Potentially a very close race, GB’s world champions recovered from 4^th at world cup I to win both Europeans and world cup ii. The Dutch who only managed second at world cup i came second at world cup ii. China having lost their world title last year are marginal favourites for bronze. There is nothing between the boats ranked 4-7. Ukraine had a spectacular start to the year with 1^st at world cup i and second at Europeans but then lost to the US at FOQR. The US had changed their combination from the one that finished 11^th last year and the Canadians and French who missed at FOQR were competitive boats as well so I think putting the two FOQR qualifiers 4^th and 5^th is reasonable. Germany have edged out the Swiss at every regatta so far this year. Romania and Australia were both surprise qualifiers last year, Romania keep changing their combination so could surprise and repeat their A final appearance while Australia have taken Harriet Hudson out of this boat to prioritize a medal calibre double and as such have not been competitive this season.

 

Men’s Quad

 

On paper one of the most straightforward and likely boat classes to go to form. The Dutch are clear cut favourite here with the battle for silver being fascinating between Poland and Italy. Italy took Europeans but then Poland flipped that result at world cup ii, although Italy have since added powerhouse Luca Rambaldi to this boat. The Brits despite adding Graeme Thomes to last year’s boat seem stuck in fourth although not far behind. Switzerland and Germany have both beaten each other multiple times this season but Switzerland seem more reliable  and did medal at Europeans beating the Brits. Romania changed their 7^th place combination from last year for Europeans and then changed it again and are racing a new combination here so could cause an upset and make the A final. Norway’s FOQR tactic of combining 2 doubles they couldn’t decide selection between in many ways worked but they are unlikely to actually end up with a better result than where they would have roughly finished in the double but four athletes is better than two and they still have a double, just a less competitive one. Estonia and their multiple 40+ year olds did well to qualify but will likely finish last.

 

Women’s eight

 

Romania’s crew is almost entirely doubling up despite their strange initial entry list but regardless are the clear cut favourites here.

Confusingly the 2 other medallists from last year  USA and Australia both in theory strengthened their boats for this season but then lost to 4/5^th last year Canada and GBR at world cup ii although they did come first and second in the prelim race. Last year followed a somewhat similar pattern though with Canada and Gb having better form in season but the missing the medals at world championships. This is just a question of do you put more stock into last year’s worlds or world cup ii as a form guide. Canada’s squad have also been struggling badly of late which I think could be justification to fade them a little here. I feel a little sorry for them so let’s put them third. I think the US will take second but third is a toss-up between Canada, GB and Australia. Italy aren’t too far behind and did beat GB at world cup i.

 

Men’s eight

 

GB have been pushed this season and were beaten by the USA in the prelim race at world cup ii. The USA recovered from 6^th last year to look very impressive but their form was probably ahead of where the other boats were given they had to go to FOQR so the Dutch remain favourites for silver for me. The Australians were bronze medallists and rejigged their squad a bit in a move that was supposed to strengthen their eight but doesn’t appear to have. Romania were 2 seconds behind the Brits at Europeans and are well in medal contention here. Germany have been off the pace of the best crews all season apart from one spectacular European finals performance. Italy however have an outside chance at  pushing Germany out of the A final and beat them in the rep at the first world cup before being beaten in the final.

 

Projected Medal Table

 

	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Medals	Total Contenders (top 6)
Great Britain	5	0	1	6	8
Netherlands	4	4	0	8	8
Romania	2	1	3	6	8
USA	1	1	3	5	8
Ireland	1	1	0	2	6
Germany	1	0	0	1	5
New Zealand	0	2	2	4	5
Australia	0	2	0	2	6
Switzerland	0	1	1	2	3
Poland	0	1	0	1	1
Lithuania	0	1	0	1	1
Italy	0	0	2	2	5
Canada	0	0	1	1	2
China	0	0	1	1	2
Greece	0	0	0	0	2
Neutral athletes	0	0	0	0	2
Denmark	0	0	0	0	2
Spain	0	0	0	0	2
Norway	0	0	0	0	2
France	0	0	0	0	2
Ukraine	0	0	0	0	2
Croatia	0	0	0	0	1
Serbia	0	0	0	0	1

 

So as expected top spot is a fascinating battle between the Brits and the Dutch with the Romanians as comfortable favourites for third. The USA, Ireland and New Zealand could have an interesting battle for the rest of the top 5 depending on how good or bad their regattas go. As expected projections are not so good for traditional powerhouses Australia, Italy and Canada albeit that Australia and Italy do have the ceiling to overperform.

[zob79 189]

@Ogreman impressive work, congrats