phelps 6,953 Posted January 7, 2021 #591 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, EupenM said: http://www.fiba.basketball/olympics/women/2020/news/experts-make-their-early-picks-can-anybody-challenge-usa-and-who-is-going-to-light-it-up And it's time for women's final tournament. They bilieve that will be on the podium! What do you think? What is your top 3? USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)... FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3... all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation... EupenM and rafalgorka 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benolympique 1,759 Posted January 7, 2021 #592 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, phelps said: USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)... FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3... all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation... Usa - Australia - Spain rafalgorka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intoronto 4,311 Posted January 8, 2021 #593 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 hours ago, phelps said: USA just unbeatable, then AUS and ESP clear favourite for the remaining 2 medals (which one depending on the quarterfinals' draw, who's lucky to escape the USA in the semifinal match would eventually get silver)... FRA and maybe BEL outsiders, but with very remote chances to upset the top 3... all the rest of the field, I fear they would be satisfied with simple participation... Canada would not be satisfied with participation. Its a medal or bust for the team rafalgorka 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted January 8, 2021 Author #594 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Still thinking about my swimming predictions. I will try this thing: in every event I will prepare the ranking list, like in quali system best times, long course, period from 01/03/2019 to today (which is olympic qualifying period) To begin with: M 400 IM – OQT 4.15.84 – OST 4.21.46 Daiya Seto JPN 4.07.95 (19) wch 19 – 1 2020 S.C. – x 94 S Rio - 3 Jay Litherland USA 4.09.22 (19) wch 19 – 2 2020 S.C. – x 95 Rio - 5 Max Litchfield GBR 4.10.94 (19) wch 19 – 7 2020 S.C. – 5 95 Rio - 4 Charlie Swanson USA 4.11.46 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 98 Ilia Borodin RUS 4.11.50 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 03 Shun Wang CHN 4.11.89 (20) wch 19 – 23 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 10 David Verraszto HUN 4.11.90 (19) wch 19 – 13 2020 S.C. – 7 88 Rio - 12 Apostolos PapastamosGRE 4.11.93 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 01 S Lewis Clareburt NZL 4.12.07 (19) wch 19 – 3 2020 S.C. – 25 99 Jacob Heidtmann GER 4.12.40 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – 14 94 S Rio - DSQ (but not for doping, some stroke technic issues, If I remember correctly ) Yuki Ikari JPN 4.12.54 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 00 Peter Bernek HUN 4.12.80 (19) wch 19 – 5 2020 S.C. – x 92 Jeremy Desplanches SUI 4.12.86 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 13 Joan Lluis Pons Ramon ESP 4.13.30 (19) wch 19 – 4 2020 S.C. – 16 96 S Rio - 8 Arjan Knipping NED 4.13.46 (19) wch 19 – 8 2020 S.C. – 36 94 Brandonn Almeida BRA 4.13.69 (19) wch 19 – 11 2020 S.C. – 8 97 Rio - 15 You can find here: Olympic qualifying time and olympic selection time Best time in LC since 01/03/2019 (in the qualifying period) - and whether this time was achieved in 19 or 20 Place in LC wch 19 Place in 2020 SC ranking Year of birth S at the end means: English Wikipedia says the swimmer has been already selected to the games Place in Rio 2016 Max 2 swimmers from one NOC allowed, like in the real games Quite interesting stats for me, I guess But early thoughts: No Kosuke Hagino JPN in ranking, Rio - 1, but he is 2nd in 2020 SC ranks, and obviously medal contender Hard to predict who will qualify for USA - e.g. will be Chase Kalisz, Rio - 2, included in Team Tokyo? No AUS swimmers??? GBR olympic team also hard to predict - Duncan Scott 1st in 2020 SC ranks, Tom Dean (born 2000) 4h in 2020 SC ranks No POL swimmers, but it will not change in this event, I'm afraid Dark horse out of top 16 yet - IMHO: Maxim Stupin RUS (born 2000) More still to come, we will see where we get from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted January 8, 2021 Author #595 Share Posted January 8, 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/olympics-official-not-certain-tokyo-games-will-go-ahead-coronavirus?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR3tp_-nr5dX-eutn9YiZ2Y0tqjZft4BHgF4zrcjyaEmyUfz3-H1dA9MNw8 Dick Pound 's bla bla bla again. He talks too much, IMO. He really likes to be in the spotlight. And I really don't like the guy. But he may be right this time, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phelps 6,953 Posted January 8, 2021 #596 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, intoronto said: Canada would not be satisfied with participation. Its a medal or bust for the team under normal circumstance, I don't see how they can get a medal... but in this crazy covid-era anything can happen and even a Canadian medal wouldn't surprise me that much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OlympicsFan 783 Posted January 8, 2021 #597 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, rafalgorka said: Still thinking about my swimming predictions. I will try this thing: in every event I will prepare the ranking list, like in quali system best times, long course, period from 01/03/2019 to today (which is olympic qualifying period) To begin with: M 400 IM – OQT 4.15.84 – OST 4.21.46 Daiya Seto JPN 4.07.95 (19) wch 19 – 1 2020 S.C. – x 94 S Rio - 3 Jay Litherland USA 4.09.22 (19) wch 19 – 2 2020 S.C. – x 95 Rio - 5 Max Litchfield GBR 4.10.94 (19) wch 19 – 7 2020 S.C. – 5 95 Rio - 4 Charlie Swanson USA 4.11.46 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 98 Ilia Borodin RUS 4.11.50 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 03 Shun Wang CHN 4.11.89 (20) wch 19 – 23 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 10 David Verraszto HUN 4.11.90 (19) wch 19 – 13 2020 S.C. – 7 88 Rio - 12 Apostolos PapastamosGRE 4.11.93 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 01 S Lewis Clareburt NZL 4.12.07 (19) wch 19 – 3 2020 S.C. – 25 99 Jacob Heidtmann GER 4.12.40 (20) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – 14 94 S Rio - DSQ (but not for doping, some stroke technic issues, If I remember correctly ) Yuki Ikari JPN 4.12.54 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 00 Peter Bernek HUN 4.12.80 (19) wch 19 – 5 2020 S.C. – x 92 Jeremy Desplanches SUI 4.12.86 (19) wch 19 – x 2020 S.C. – x 94 Rio - 13 Joan Lluis Pons Ramon ESP 4.13.30 (19) wch 19 – 4 2020 S.C. – 16 96 S Rio - 8 Arjan Knipping NED 4.13.46 (19) wch 19 – 8 2020 S.C. – 36 94 Brandonn Almeida BRA 4.13.69 (19) wch 19 – 11 2020 S.C. – 8 97 Rio - 15 You can find here: Olympic qualifying time and olympic selection time Best time in LC since 01/03/2019 (in the qualifying period) - and whether this time was achieved in 19 or 20 Place in LC wch 19 Place in 2020 SC ranking Year of birth S at the end means: English Wikipedia says the swimmer has been already selected to the games Place in Rio 2016 Max 2 swimmers from one NOC allowed, like in the real games Quite interesting stats for me, I guess But early thoughts: No Kosuke Hagino JPN in ranking, Rio - 1, but he is 2nd in 2020 SC ranks, and obviously medal contender Hard to predict who will qualify for USA - e.g. will be Chase Kalisz, Rio - 2, included in Team Tokyo? No AUS swimmers??? GBR olympic team also hard to predict - Duncan Scott 1st in 2020 SC ranks, Tom Dean (born 2000) 4h in 2020 SC ranks No POL swimmers, but it will not change in this event, I'm afraid Dark horse out of top 16 yet - IMHO: Maxim Stupin RUS (born 2000) More still to come, we will see where we get from here... I think your rankings are wrong, for example you forgot Hayang (who could be a dark horse alongside Foster). Also I don’t think that Scott (or Dean) will swim the 400 IM, but who knows ... Attachment is the great fabricator of illusions; reality can be obtained only by someone who is detached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted January 8, 2021 Author #598 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, OlympicsFan said: I think your rankings are wrong, for example you forgot Hayang (who could be a dark horse alongside Foster). Also I don’t think that Scott (or Dean) will swim the 400 IM, but who knows ... I used FINA ranking website to do it. www.fina.org/fina-rankings/filter/overall-rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted January 8, 2021 Author #599 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @OlympicsFan http://www.fina.org/fina-rankings/results?top=100&gender=Men&year=All&poolConfiguration=LCM&distance=All&style=All×Mode=BestTimes&continentId=All&countryId=All&startDate=01%2F03%2F2019&endDate=08%2F01%2F2021&type=overall-rankings&selectedGroup=Freestyle&selectedGender=Men&selectedDistance=50 I think Qin Hayang hasn't got OQT set yet. But he may be a medal contender, you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafalgorka 1,394 Posted January 8, 2021 Author #600 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @OlympicsFan I agree Cameron Foster may be a dark horse. But - generally - it is not that simple - age is not an only factor in these predictions. Experience matters a lot, too. Have a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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