How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games 2020? (2019 version)

[opruh 129]

One in weightlifting, maybe another one in men's gymnastics lol.

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

  On 7/1/2019 at 9:11 PM, intoronto said:

 

Athletics: 2

Swimming: 3

Diving: 1

Softball: 1
Basketball: 1

Canoeing: 2

Cycling: 1

Gymnastics: 2

Judo: 1

Karate/Taekwondo: 1-2 among the two sports

Rowing: 3

Rugby Sevens: 1

Wrestling: 1

Surprise medal: 1

 

22-23

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Now, I'm curious about the disciplines. Two in trampoline, one in artistic gymnastics and one in trampoline, or two in artistic gymnastics?

[thiago_simoes 1,423]

  On 7/1/2019 at 9:51 PM, MHSN said:

 

yes, plus Judo, maybe shooting.

even though Abedini himself is not a serious medal chance right now. he is not our #1 anymore, if there is a chance in fencing that will be in team sabre. probably a very slim chance.

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Keep an eye out in gymnastics. It's not impossible for Saeid Reza Keikha to challenge for a medal if he qualifies. Winning medals in gymnastics at the Olympics is easier than at the World Championships, in my opinion. You have a smaller pool of gymnasts competing at the Olympics, so any mistake from the big names can drastically increase chances for smaller nations to win medals. This is what happened to Ude from Croatia in 2008, and with all three medalists from Brazil in 2016.

[MHSN 3,651]

  On 7/1/2019 at 11:36 PM, thiago_simoes said:

 

Keep an eye out in gymnastics. It's not impossible for Saeid Reza Keikha to challenge for a medal if he qualifies. Winning medals in gymnastics at the Olympics is easier than at the World Championships, in my opinion. You have a smaller pool of gymnasts competing at the Olympics, so any mistake from the big names can drastically increase chances for smaller nations to win medals. This is what happened to Ude from Croatia in 2008, and with all three medalists from Brazil in 2016.

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Yeah I know about him but that's not a realistic medal chance (comparing to Judo or Fencing), watching one of his interviews he thinks he has a chance for medal (even though very slim) but he has to qualify first. even qualifying will be a huge achievement for him. we have no history in this sport.

[intoronto 5,848]

  On 7/1/2019 at 11:32 PM, thiago_simoes said:

Now, I'm curious about the disciplines. Two in trampoline, one in artistic gymnastics and one in trampoline, or two in artistic gymnastics?

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Two overall across all disciplines. Its a pretty conservative number.

[Function CR Lee 468]

China 

Maybe 90 medals

[ChandlerMne 1,073]

  On 7/1/2019 at 11:36 PM, thiago_simoes said:

 

Keep an eye out in gymnastics. It's not impossible for Saeid Reza Keikha to challenge for a medal if he qualifies. Winning medals in gymnastics at the Olympics is easier than at the World Championships, in my opinion. You have a smaller pool of gymnasts competing at the Olympics, so any mistake from the big names can drastically increase chances for smaller nations to win medals. This is what happened to Ude from Croatia in 2008, and with all three medalists from Brazil in 2016.

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I am curious about Zanetti. Wasnt he favorite for gold before Rio? 

[phelps 7,797]

  On 7/1/2019 at 9:32 PM, ChandlerMne said:

For 

As in 2016, no real medal prospects. Mens water polo and womens handball should be closest to medal but in both sports we hit our prime so winning a medal would be huge surprise.

In water polo Serbia, Croatia and Italy/Spain are top contenders. Also we have Greece and Hungary, USA is always dangerous. Montenegrin team changed a lot, there are many new players... Thing to note, when we were favorites ( Beijing, London) we finished empty handed. Now, we arent favorites,so things could be different in Tokyo. Wheels of fortune...

Handball team is solid, we have few London medalists but with France,Russia, Spain and Norway it will be hell of a task.

All other participant wont be close to medal except, maybe, Bojana Gojkovic in boxing,if she manages to qualify. She is still a junior but she is unbeatable last few years. She is 2x European champion,she regularly beats Russian and other top boxers. I dont know what to expect in Tokyo but in Paris she could be among serious medal contenders.

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if they qualify (which isn't an easy task, but not impossible), maybe you have some chances in Karate (men's -67, Mario Hodzic; men's +75kg, Nikola Malovic & women's +61kg, Marina Rakovic)...

 

they are outside/remote chances, but especially Hodzic on a given day could be a threat for all the competitors (look at his very good performance at the recent European Games)...

 

Gojkovic is very, very good, but I fear she'll be another victim of the (in)famous Boxing spoil system...it will be very hard for her even to qualify (given also the very few spots available)...

Edited July 2, 2019 by phelps

[ChandlerMne 1,073]

  On 7/2/2019 at 8:13 AM, phelps said:

 

if they qualify (which isn't an easy task, but not impossible), maybe you have some chances in Karate (men's -67, Mario Hodzic; men's +75kg, Nikola Malovic & women's +61kg, Marina Rakovic)...

 

they are outside/remote chances, but especially Hodzic on a given day could be a threat for all the competitors (look at his very good performance at the recent European Games)...

 

Gojkovic is very, very good, but I fear she'll be another victim of the (in)famous Boxing spoil system...it will be very hard for her even to qualify (given also the very few spots available)...

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Yes, karate has long tradition in Montenegro, Hodzic is an example of those relatively young karatekas who can win a medal in a perfect setting. Rakovic is more experienced,she also won few medals at major events. To be honest, i dont like karate and i watch it occasionally, so i cant compare them with top karatekas. Remotely, Hodzic should be closest to medal.

Gojkovic is also part of infamous Montenegrin system in which amateur boxing is poorely financed and governed, as a result we have 18 years old pro boxers but also pro champions Radosevic or Zlaticanin ( their olympic careers were nonexistent). On the other hand, club in which she trains is leaded by Russians so she is under their influence since earliest years. Women boxing in Russia isnt strong as mens but still, she is probably best prospect for an olympic medal in individual sport Montenegro ever had.

 

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 7/1/2019 at 7:54 PM, EselTheDonkey said:

Archery: 0-1

Athletics: 2-7

Boxing: 0-2

Canoe (including Slalom): 4-10

Cycling (all disciplines): 3-8

Diving: 0-2

Equestrian: 3-6

Fencing: 0-2

Field Hockey: 0-2

Football: 0-1

Golf: 0-1

Handball: 0-1

Judo: 0-3

Karate: 1

Modern P.: 0-2

Rowing: 2-5

Sailing: 0-3

Shooting: 1-4

Climbing: 0-1

Swimming (including Open Warer): 1-2

Table Tennis: 0-3

Tennis: 0-2

Triathlon: 0-1

Volleyball (including Beach): 0-1

Wrestling: 0-3

Rest: 0

 

Total: 16-74

 

16+74 = 90

 

90/2 = 45

 

45 medals and I think I'm too optimistic.

 

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45 medals should be the minimum, i hope for 50.

- Archery: I would say 0-2 (women's team + women's individual)

- Athletics: How do you get 7 medals as maximum?

2 x men's javelin, men's discus, men's high jump, men's 20 km race walking, men's decathlon, women's 1500 m, women's 5000 m, women's 100 m hurdles, women's 4 x 100 m relay, women's long jump, women's triple jump, women's shot put, women's discus throw, women's heptathlon, women's javelin throw

- Boxing: How do you get 2 medals as maximum?

Apetz, Wahner + at least 2 medal chances on the men's side

- Equestrian: How do you get 6 as maximum?

2 x eventing, 3 x dressage, 2 x jumping

- Fencing: How do you get 3 as maximum?

Men's sabre, men's sabre team, women's foil

- Golf: I would say 0-0 ...

- Rowing: I would say 2-6 or 2-7 (men's quadruple sculls, women's quadruple sculls, men's eight, men's single sculls, men's lightweight double sculls, men's four, women's double sculls)

- Shooting: I would say 1-5 or 1-6 (2 x men's rapid fire pistol, men's trap, women's 50 m 3 positions, 1-2 x women's 25 m pistol + mixed events ...)

- Swimming: I would say 1-7 or 1-8 (men's 400 m, men's 800 m, men's 1500 m, men's 10 km open water, men's 200 IM, men's 200 breast, men's 100 fly, women's 200 fly + maybe women's 1500 free or women's 10 km open water)

- Tennis: I would say 1-3 or 1-4 (Zverev (it is best of 3 after all), Kerber, mixed doubles, women's doubles (Kerber + Görges) + maybe men's doubles ...)

- What about gymnastics? Women's uneven bars, women's balance beam ...

 

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by OlympicsFan