Swimming 2023 Discussion Thread

[dullard 721]

  On 3/5/2023 at 3:52 AM, Josh said:

My guess

 

200m Freestyle

400m Freestyle

200 IM

400 IM

200m Butterfly

4x200 Freestyle Relay

 

4x100m Freestyle Relay, and 200m Backstroke are solid possibilities too. 

 

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She'll do the 4x100 free for sure because relays are cheap medals for someone like McIntosh who would be rested from the prelims and she already showed she can manage this double at Comm Games. The schedule in Paris is about as good as one can expect for 5 individuals plus 2 relays.

[Topicmaster1010 4,475]

  On 3/4/2023 at 9:20 AM, Josh said:

Summer McIntosh PBs (As of now): 

 

100m Freestyle- 54.39 (2023)

200m Freestyle- 1:54.13 (#8 All-Time) (2023)

400m Freestyle- 3:59.32 (#4 All-Time)

(2022)

800m Freestyle- 8:20.19 (2023)

1500m Freestyle- 16:15.19 (2021)

200m Backstroke- 2:07.15 (2022)

200m Butterfly- 2:05.05 (#11 All-Time) (2023)

200m Individual Medley- 2:08.70 (#18 All-Time (2022)

400m Individual Medley- 4:28.61 (#3 All-Time (2022)

 

Absolutely incredible. 

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In addition to all those, she's also swum a 1:00.25 100m Backstroke, 57.92 100m Butterfly, 1:10.39 100m Breaststroke, and 2:29.56 200m Breaststroke which aren't too bad either!

[phelps 7,801]

  On 3/5/2023 at 3:52 AM, Josh said:

My guess

 

200m Freestyle

400m Freestyle

200 IM

400 IM

200m Butterfly

4x200 Freestyle Relay

 

4x100m Freestyle Relay, and 200m Backstroke are solid possibilities too. 

 

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I don't think she's gonna take the risk of swimming so many world races as young as she is now...it would be the best way to burn out and have a short career...

 

if she's going to swim a mammuth program, it's only at the Olympics...and if she takes notice of Michael Phelps' development, she's gonna hit the top only in L.A., she wouldn't becessarily need to take a big load already in Paris.

 

my guess (my hope), in Fukuoka she should be happy with 3 individual events (400m Free, 400m IM and only one between 200m IM and 200m Fly) and the 2 relays (where she's obviously save herself only for the finals -which are also Olympic qualifiers, not to be forgotten).

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 3/5/2023 at 2:49 AM, JoshMartini007 said:

Any word on which events McIntosh will compete in at the Olympics?

 

I guess the biggest question mark from an individual event perspective is whether or not she will compete in the 200m free as the final overlaps with the 400 IM final. Five individual events would be very hard to compete, but if any swimmer is to pull it off in 2024 it would be her.

 

The 4x200m free overlaps with the 200m fly final, but it's hard to think she would miss the final. Another question is whether she competes in the 4x100m free which overlaps with the 400m free event. Losing Sanchez hurts our depth, but we may still be good enough to medal.

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My guess:

Day 1:

400 free prelim

400 free final

4 x 100 free final

 

Day 2:

200 free prelim

200 free semifinal

 

Day 3:

400 IM prelim

400 IM final

200 free final

 

Day 4:

-

 

Day 5:

200 fly prelim

200 fly semifinal

 

Day 6:

200 fly final

4 x 200 free final

 

Day 7:

200 IM heat

200 IM semifinal

 

Day 8:

Maybe 4 x 100 medley relay prelim

200 IM final

 

It (almost) looks as if the schedule was designed for her. I think whenever there are multiple of her "favorite" events in the same final session, the one where she has better medal chances is first, so competing in both isn't much of a risk. The only "problem" for her is that the 800 free and the 200 IM overlap and it seems impossible to do both. If the organizers would have split those two events up, she could have gone for 6 individual medals. I think the older athletes get, the longer they usually need to recover, so this might be her best chance (unless more nonsensical events will be added in the future) to go for the all-time record of medals won at a single olympics.

 

Anything between 3 medals (400 IM, 200 fly, 400 free) and 7 medals (200 IM, 200 free, 4 x 200 free, 4 x 100 free) seems possible. If Canada would use her in the medley relay prelim, she could mabye go for 8 medals to tie Michael Phelps' record.

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[NMQ 243]

Everyone assumes Summer will go Phelps style and swim a ton of events, but she's been pretty conservative so far. I don't see her swimming more than 4 individual races + 2 relays at major meets. At Paris, I think she'll drop the 200 FR.

Edited March 5, 2023 by NMQ

[Federer91 2,890]

  On 3/5/2023 at 12:40 PM, NMQ said:

Everyone assumes Summer will go Phelps style and swim a ton of events, but she's been pretty conservative so far. I don't see her swimming more than 4 individual races + 2 relays at major meets. At Paris, I think she'll drop the 200 FR.

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The fellow Canadians are already making plans for her Phelps like winning streak, and you are doubting only her schedule 

[NMQ 243]

  On 3/5/2023 at 12:53 PM, Federer91 said:

The fellow Canadians are already making plans for her Phelps like winning streak, and you are doubting only her schedule 

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Ha, I get it. I've been following her since before Tokyo and she is the real deal. The closest to Phelps in womens's swimming I've ever seen. But still, we have to wait to see how she manages bigger schedules and it seems to me she is smart enough to choose wisely and not get burned in the process.

 

Also, right now her only sure gold medal event is the 400 IM, she has to battle the likes of Titmus, Ledecky, Haughey and Molly in freestyle, Yufei in the 200 FL and the americans in the 200 IM, so any extra rest she can get will be better.

[dullard 721]

  On 3/5/2023 at 12:40 PM, NMQ said:

Everyone assumes Summer will go Phelps style and swim a ton of events, but she's been pretty conservative so far. I don't see her swimming more than 4 individual races + 2 relays at major meets. At Paris, I think she'll drop the 200 FR.

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The size of Phelps' program increased over a number of years so just because Summer's program has been conservative so far doesn't mean it won't be "Phelps style" in the future.

[OlympicsFan 860]

  On 3/5/2023 at 2:47 PM, NMQ said:

Ha, I get it. I've been following her since before Tokyo and she is the real deal. The closest to Phelps in womens's swimming I've ever seen. But still, we have to wait to see how she manages bigger schedules and it seems to me she is smart enough to choose wisely and not get burned in the process.

 

Also, right now her only sure gold medal event is the 400 IM, she has to battle the likes of Titmus, Ledecky, Haughey and Molly in freestyle, Yufei in the 200 FL and the americans in the 200 IM, so any extra rest she can get will be better.

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Not sure if the 200 fly gold will really be more difficult for her to win (than the 400 IM gold). I think 2021 was the only year where Zhang Yufei went sub 2:05 + she is 8 years older than McIntosh. Also like i said before: I think McIntosh has the potential to break Phelps' records (number of medals at a single olympics + overall medals at the olympics) + Paris might very well be her peak (when you look at the trajectory of other teen phenoms in the past). I don't know what her goals are, but if she wants to become the greatest swimmer of all times, it would be wise to go for as many medals as possible in Paris. Unlike Phelps she won't win 3 safe relay medals at every olympics (thanks to canadian women not being on the same level as american men), so a lot will depend on the quality of her teammates going forward. I hope that Canada will a) find an elite breaststroker (for their chances in the medley relays) and b) use her in all 3 of their relays on the women's side.

[dullard 721]

We'll get a first look at what kind of shape the Australians are in at the NSW Open starting on Friday.

 

https://swimswam.com/chalmers-titmus-mckeon-mckeown-more-head-to-nsw-state-open-championships/