Canada's 2024 Olympics Qualification Discussion Road to Paris 2024

[james89 523]

On 1/7/2024 at 4:18 PM, Josh said:

Upcoming Canadian Olympic Qualifiers (January/February 2024)

Women’s Field Hockey Olympic Qualification Tournament (Jan 13-20)

Men’s Field Hockey Olympic Qualification Tournament (Jan 13-21)

Sailing ICLA 7 Worlds (Jan 26-31)

Pan American Taekwondo Olympic Qualifier (Jan 30-31)

Artistic Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 2-10)

Diving at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 2-10)

Marathon Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 3-8)

Women’s Waterpolo at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 4-16)

Women’s Basketball Olympic Qualification Tournament (Feb 8-11)

Swimming at the World Aquatic Championships (Feb 11-18)

Table Tennis Team World Championships (Feb 16-25)

ISA Surfing Worlds (Feb 23- Mar 3)

Sailing 470 World Championships (Feb 24- Mar 3)

Pan American Wrestling Olympic Qualifier (Feb 28- Mar 1)

Pan American Shotgun Shooting Championships (Feb 29- Mar 9)

Boxing World Olympic Qualifier 1 (Feb 29- March 12)

 

If I’m missing any internal Canadian Olympic Qualifiers for team selection, feel free to let me know. 

I think the Taekwondo qualifier is in April. 

[Josh 7,706]

Down to the last chance regatta for ICLA7 qualification 

 

Ruitenberg was doing so well at the beginning, but finishes 38 points outside of a quota. Had a great first 2 days, and a bad last 3 days. 
 

We’ve qualified in laser radial ever since it’s Olympic debut in 1996, what a shame it would be to see that streak end. 

[intoronto 4,659]

Taekwondo Canada has selected:

 

Josipa Kafadar 49kg

Braven Park 58kg

Marc-André Bergeron M+80kg 

 

As the Olympic qualifier athletes.

[Josh 7,706]

1 hour ago, intoronto said:

Taekwondo Canada has selected:

 

Josipa Kafadar 49kg

Braven Park 58kg

Marc-André Bergeron M+80kg 

 

As the Olympic qualifier athletes.

Josipa Kafadar over Ashley Kraayeveld? Lol. 

[james89 523]

10 minutes ago, Josh said:

Josipa Kafadar over Ashley Kraayeveld? Lol. 

I looked into this and I think Kraayeveld lost the qualifier held in November so they would have had to select the athlete she lost to. A sucky situation all around. 

 

Does anyone know if Canada was limited to sending 3 athletes or if it was a strategy to not have to choose later since we were limited to two men and one woman to qualify for Paris?

Edited February 1 by james89

[intoronto 4,659]

16 minutes ago, james89 said:

I looked into this and I think Kraayeveld lost the qualifier held in November so they would have had to select the athlete she lost to. A sucky situation all around. 

 

Does anyone know if Canada was limited to sending 3 athletes or if it was a strategy to not have to choose later since we were limited to two men and one woman to qualify for Paris?

Limited to 3

[Josh 7,706]

Caroline Santos has already qualified for Paris through World Rankings. Essentially Taekwondo Canada is pretty much just throwing a free quota away, with two quotas available at the PAQT and the only athlete who is anywhere close to her in the Olympic Rankings is Leslie Soltero. We didn’t even choose our best athlete in women’s 59kg, both Vivian Tranquille and Ashley Orozco are ranked way higher (and have way more international experience) than Kafadar (literally never heard of her)

 

 Taekwondo Canada should’ve just selected names from the beginning IMO. At least they got it right on the men’s side 

[Topicmaster1010 3,040]

2024 World Aquatics Championships Preview

 

A lot of quotas up for grabs the next two weeks. Here's a little breakdown of each discipline and how Canada can qualify.

 

Artistic Swimming:

 

Duet: Audrey Lamothe, Jacqueline Simoneau

Team: Sydney Carroll, Scarlett Finn, Laurianne Imbeau, Jonnie Newman, Raphaelle Plante, Kenzie Priddell, Claire Scheffel, Olena Verbinska

 

Unfortunately, artistic swimming results have not been great over the last two years. We seem to now be the clear #3 team in the Americas. 5 team quotas and 3 duet quotas are up for grabs here based on the combined score of each routine. The team quota at this point seems very unlikely as there are other teams like Spain, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Italy and the US that all are competing for the same quota.

 

In the duet, there is a bit more optimism as Jacqueline Simoneau is returning to the team. The best hope of qualifying here is that the bigger countries all take the team quotas and Canada can scoop up one of the last 3 available spots. If New Zealand rejects their quota, that leaves 4 quotas available. Unfortunately, a reallocation through the Pan Am Games won't be possible since Canada finished 5th there .

 

Diving:

 

Men:

 

3m Springboard: Cedric Fofana, Carson Paul

10m Springboard: Rylan Wiens, Nathan Zsombor-Murray

10m Synchro: Rylan Wiens + Nathan Zsombor-Murray

 

Women:

 

3m Springboard: Mia Vallee, Pamela Ware

10m Platform: Caeli McKay, Kate Miller

3m Synchro: Mia Valle + Pamela Ware

10m Synchro: Caeli McKay + Kate Miller

 

I could've sworn we had an entrant in the men's 3m synchro event when I checked a few days ago but nothing's showing there anymore.

 

Athletes in bold (Zsombor-Murray, Ware and McKay) have already earned a quota for Canada and are ineligible to earn a quota this time around. Anyone who qualifies for the final in the top 12 will automatically earn a spot in the Games. After that, it all depends on reallocation and how many extra quotas in the synchro events are needed. A semifinals spot (top 18) should hopefully be good enough. Rylan Wiens is back and recovered from his shoulder injury so hopefully he can book his place automatically. If Vallee is back in 2022 form, that also shouldn't be a problem for her. The other divers are more unknowns especially in the men's 3m springboard event where Bryden Hattie is out Fofana and Paul are in.

 

In the synchro events, the top 4 unqualified teams will earn quotas for Paris and if the Canadian divers are on form, they should have no problem qualifying 3 synchro pairs.

 

Open Water Swimming:

 

Men's 10km: Hau-Li Fan, Eric Hedlin

Women's 10km: Emma Finlin, Laila Oravsky

 

2 hours of swimming will determine all of the remaining 18 quotas in each event. 13 of them will go to the top 13 finishers that haven't already qualified (14 if France earns a quota). Otherwise, there are also also 5 extra continental quotas for each continent for the best unqualified NOC. So Canada could be in a could position to earn the Americas continental quota here. Hau-Li Fan is back for this edition and he is certainly capable of earning one of the men's quotas. The rapidly improving Emma Finlin should also be in contention on the woman's side.

 

Swimming:

 

Men:

 

Javier Acevedo: 100m Freestyle, 200m Freestyle, 50m Backstroke

Stephen Calkins: 50m Freestyle

James Dergousoff: 50m Breaststroke, 100m Breaststroke, 200m Breaststroke

Raben Dommann: 200m Backstroke, 200m Butterfly

Collyn Gagne: 400m IM

Finlay Knox: 50m Butterfly, 100m Butterfly, 200m IM

Blake Tierney: 100m Backstroke

Lorne Wigginton: 400m Freestyle, 200m IM, 400m IM

4x100m Freestyle Relay: 5th qualifying position

4x200m Freestyle Relay: 12th qualifying position

4x100m Medley Relay: T7th qualifying position

 

Women:

 

Sophie Angus: 50m Breaststroke, 100m Breaststroke

Tessa Cieplucha: 400m IM

Ella Cosgrove: 800m Freestyle

Sarah Fournier: 100m Freestyle

Ella Jansen: 400m Freestyle, 200m Butterfly, 400m IM

Ashley McMillan: 200m IM

Sydney Pickrem: 200m Breaststroke, 200m IM

Taylor Ruck: 50m Freestyle

Katerine Savard: 50m Butterfly, 100m Butterfly

Rebecca Smith: 200m Freestyle

Ingrid Wilm: 50m Backstroke, 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay: 7th qualifying position

4x200m Freestyle Relay: 5th qualifying position

4x100m Medley Relay: Already qualified

 

4x100m Mixed Medley Relay: 6th qualifying position

 

The main priority here will be qualifying all 7 of the relays. Right now, every relay is currently in a qualifying position with 6 of them seemingly secure. The most vulnerable one would be the 4x200m relay. However, looking at the entry list, it doesn't seem likely that 4 teams will pass Canada in the standings. I don't see Canada moving up in time because unfortunately, Ruslan Gaziev (initially on the roster) won't be here because according to some swimswam commenter, he's facing a WADA infraction.

 

Of course, this is also an olympic qualifying competition for individual events. Athletes already with an OQT are in bold. The most likely new OQT earner would be Wigginton in the 400m IM or Acevedo in the 100m Freestyle but I wouldn't expect more than a couple new OQT's at most.

 

Water Polo:

 

Schedule:

02/04: vs.  02/06: vs.  02/08: vs.

 

Thanks to the US failing to qualify through the 2023 World Championships and taking the Pan American games quota instead, Canada finds itself in a last chance qualification scenario where two quotas are up for grabs. The most likely challengers will be Italy and Hungary. Assuming both Canada and Italy win their first two games, the direct group play matchup will be crucial. 

 

Whoever finishes first in the group will very likely go through Greece in the quarterfinals, and then Hungary/Netherlands in the semifinals.

 

Whoever finishes second in the group will likely play New Zealand in the first round but then Spain and the USA after that. So ideally, finishing first in the group is the way to go.

 

It's really unfair that this tournament is the qualifier because other qualified teams are able to influence results.

[james89 523]

40 minutes ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

2024 World Aquatics Championships Preview

 

A lot of quotas up for grabs the next two weeks. Here's a little breakdown of each discipline and how Canada can qualify.

 

Artistic Swimming:

 

Duet: Audrey Lamothe, Jacqueline Simoneau

Team: Sydney Carroll, Scarlett Finn, Laurianne Imbeau, Jonnie Newman, Raphaelle Plante, Kenzie Priddell, Claire Scheffel, Olena Verbinska

 

Unfortunately, artistic swimming results have not been great over the last two years. We seem to now be the clear #3 team in the Americas. 5 team quotas and 3 duet quotas are up for grabs here based on the combined score of each routine. The team quota at this point seems very unlikely as there are other teams like Spain, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Italy and the US that all are competing for the same quota.

 

In the duet, there is a bit more optimism as Jacqueline Simoneau is returning to the team. The best hope of qualifying here is that the bigger countries all take the team quotas and Canada can scoop up one of the last 3 available spots. If New Zealand rejects their quota, that leaves 4 quotas available. Unfortunately, a reallocation through the Pan Am Games won't be possible since Canada finished 5th there .

 

Diving:

 

Men:

 

3m Springboard: Cedric Fofana, Carson Paul

10m Springboard: Rylan Wiens, Nathan Zsombor-Murray

10m Synchro: Rylan Wiens + Nathan Zsombor-Murray

 

Women:

 

3m Springboard: Mia Vallee, Pamela Ware

10m Platform: Caeli McKay, Kate Miller

3m Synchro: Mia Valle + Pamela Ware

10m Synchro: Caeli McKay + Kate Miller

 

I could've sworn we had an entrant in the men's 3m synchro event when I checked a few days ago but nothing's showing there anymore.

 

Athletes in bold (Zsombor-Murray, Ware and McKay) have already earned a quota for Canada and are ineligible to earn a quota this time around. Anyone who qualifies for the final in the top 12 will automatically earn a spot in the Games. After that, it all depends on reallocation and how many extra quotas in the synchro events are needed. A semifinals spot (top 18) should hopefully be good enough. Rylan Wiens is back and recovered from his shoulder injury so hopefully he can book his place automatically. If Vallee is back in 2022 form, that also shouldn't be a problem for her. The other divers are more unknowns especially in the men's 3m springboard event where Bryden Hattie is out Fofana and Paul are in.

 

In the synchro events, the top 4 unqualified teams will earn quotas for Paris and if the Canadian divers are on form, they should have no problem qualifying 3 synchro pairs.

 

Open Water Swimming:

 

Men's 10km: Hau-Li Fan, Eric Hedlin

Women's 10km: Emma Finlin, Laila Oravsky

 

2 hours of swimming will determine all of the remaining 18 quotas in each event. 13 of them will go to the top 13 finishers that haven't already qualified (14 if France earns a quota). Otherwise, there are also also 5 extra continental quotas for each continent for the best unqualified NOC. So Canada could be in a could position to earn the Americas continental quota here. Hau-Li Fan is back for this edition and he is certainly capable of earning one of the men's quotas. The rapidly improving Emma Finlin should also be in contention on the woman's side.

 

Swimming:

 

Men:

 

Javier Acevedo: 100m Freestyle, 200m Freestyle, 50m Backstroke

Stephen Calkins: 50m Freestyle

James Dergousoff: 50m Breaststroke, 100m Breaststroke, 200m Breaststroke

Raben Dommann: 200m Backstroke, 200m Butterfly

Collyn Gagne: 400m IM

Finlay Knox: 50m Butterfly, 100m Butterfly, 200m IM

Blake Tierney: 100m Backstroke

Lorne Wigginton: 400m Freestyle, 200m IM, 400m IM

4x100m Freestyle Relay: 5th qualifying position

4x200m Freestyle Relay: 12th qualifying position

4x100m Medley Relay: T7th qualifying position

 

Women:

 

Sophie Angus: 50m Breaststroke, 100m Breaststroke

Tessa Cieplucha: 400m IM

Ella Cosgrove: 800m Freestyle

Sarah Fournier: 100m Freestyle

Ella Jansen: 400m Freestyle, 200m Butterfly, 400m IM

Ashley McMillan: 200m IM

Sydney Pickrem: 200m Breaststroke, 200m IM

Taylor Ruck: 50m Freestyle

Katerine Savard: 50m Butterfly, 100m Butterfly

Rebecca Smith: 200m Freestyle

Ingrid Wilm: 50m Backstroke, 100m Backstroke, 200m Backstroke

4x100m Freestyle Relay: 7th qualifying position

4x200m Freestyle Relay: 5th qualifying position

4x100m Medley Relay: Already qualified

 

4x100m Mixed Medley Relay: 6th qualifying position

 

The main priority here will be qualifying all 7 of the relays. Right now, every relay is currently in a qualifying position with 6 of them seemingly secure. The most vulnerable one would be the 4x200m relay. However, looking at the entry list, it doesn't seem likely that 4 teams will pass Canada in the standings. I don't see Canada moving up in time because unfortunately, Ruslan Gaziev (initially on the roster) won't be here because according to some swimswam commenter, he's facing a WADA infraction.

 

Of course, this is also an olympic qualifying competition for individual events. Athletes already with an OQT are in bold. The most likely new OQT earner would be Wigginton in the 400m IM or Acevedo in the 100m Freestyle but I wouldn't expect more than a couple new OQT's at most.

 

Water Polo:

 

Schedule:

02/04: vs.  02/06: vs.  02/08: vs.

 

Thanks to the US failing to qualify through the 2023 World Championships and taking the Pan American games quota instead, Canada finds itself in a last chance qualification scenario where two quotas are up for grabs. The most likely challengers will be Italy and Hungary. Assuming both Canada and Italy win their first two games, the direct group play matchup will be crucial. 

 

Whoever finishes first in the group will very likely go through Greece in the quarterfinals, and then Hungary/Netherlands in the semifinals.

 

Whoever finishes second in the group will likely play New Zealand in the first round but then Spain and the USA after that. So ideally, finishing first in the group is the way to go.

 

It's really unfair that this tournament is the qualifier because other qualified teams are able to influence results.

Thanks for putting this together!

 

I feel like Artistic Swimming is becoming a bit of a gamble with some of the new scoring system, Canada clearly hit bottom at the PanAm Games and I suspect it will only get better from here. With Simmoneau returning and a new coach coming from the US I think Canada may start to see its ranking rise. Probably only gets the duet spot but hopefully. 

 

And you are right we did have an entry in the men's synchro 3m a few days ago...

 

Also a SwimSwam comment made mme think Hau-Li Fan was retired so take the Gaziev one with a grain of salt.

[Josh 7,706]

CBC Sports has released the Gracenote simulation for projected Canadian medals at Paris 2024. Here’s the first 16 (out of 23) medalists, as the article doesn’t highlight all of them. 
 

Gold (6): Christa Deguchi (judo- women’s -57kg), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 400m individual medley), Summer McIntosh (swimming- women’s 200m butterfly), Philip Kim (breaking- b-boys), Marco Arop (athletics- men’s 800m), Pierce LePage (athletics- decathlon)

Silver (8): Katie Vincent (canoe sprint- women’s C1-200m), Katie Vincent/Sophia Jensen (canoe sprint- women’s C2-500m), Damian Warner (athletics- decathlon), men’s 4x100m relay (athletics), ?, ?, ?, ?

Bronze (9): Women’s eights (rowing), Josh Liendo (swimming- men’s 100m butterfly), Kylie Masse (swimming- women’s 100m backstroke), Maggie MacNeil (swimming- women’s 100m butterfly), Ethan Katzberg (athletics- men’s hammer throw), Sarah Mitton (athletics- women’s shot put), ?, ?, ?

 

Kylie Masse winning bronze in an individual event is optimistic, she’s been well off her times lately, and the second American (behind Smith) is likely to out-touch her. Don’t see us winning any medals in rowing either, with the way things have been going with Rowing Canada. There’s one medal contender that I’m surprised isn’t on the list however, I think they’re underestimating our women’s 3x3 basketball team. 

Edited February 7 by Josh