Summer Olympic Games 2020 Unqualified Nations

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

 

Detailed List

 

Remaining NOCs - (Potential Sports they can qualify in)

 

• Marshall Islands - (Athletics, Swimming)
• Mauritania - (Athletics)

 

Total NOCs Remaining: 2

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

For anyone interested, I've added a Qualification Watch page to my blog.

 

Basically it lists all unqualified nations and which events they may qualify in. These are based on performances over the last two years. Please note that these are chances and not guarantees. Boxing will be added once the qualification process is confirmed. I have also yet to add invitation quotas (outside of athletics/swimming) as it is a bit too early to figure those out.

 

If anyone has any suggestions as to possible events a nation may qualify in, let me know.

[phelps 8,403]

12 minuti fa, JoshMartini007 ha scritto:

For anyone interested, I've added a Qualification Watch page to my blog.

 

Basically it lists all unqualified nations and which events they may qualify in. These are based on performances over the last two years. Please note that these are chances and not guarantees. Boxing will be added once the qualification process is confirmed. I have also yet to add invitation quotas (outside of athletics/swimming) as it is a bit too early to figure those out.

 

If anyone has any suggestions as to possible events a nation may qualify in, let me know.

 

just on page #1...

Benin...Fencing, men's Sabre (Yemi Geoffrey Apithy, who already qualified to the Rio Games)

Bosnia...Karate, also the women's +61kg are not out of order (Ivona Cavar, European Bronze medallist and 5th & 7th in 2 different K1PL stages this year)

 

 

[dcro 10,210]

Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia should have a chance in team dressage and team jumping, respectively.

 

Additionally, Hong Kong stands a decent chance in both team and individual jumping since Australia and Japan are already qualified. Philippines and Sri Lanka should have a chance in individual jumping, just like Syria and Morocco from the other group.

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

54 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

just on page #1...

Benin...Fencing, men's Sabre (Yemi Geoffrey Apithy, who already qualified to the Rio Games)

Bosnia...Karate, also the women's +61kg are not out of order (Ivona Cavar, European Bronze medallist and 5th & 7th in 2 different K1PL stages this year)

 

 

 

Thanks

 

I don't think Apithy has been active recently. While it is common for athletes to take breaks between Olympics, I would wait until he returns, just to make sure he didn't retire.

[MHSN 3,785]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

For anyone interested, I've added a Qualification Watch page to my blog.

 

Basically it lists all unqualified nations and which events they may qualify in. These are based on performances over the last two years. Please note that these are chances and not guarantees. Boxing will be added once the qualification process is confirmed. I have also yet to add invitation quotas (outside of athletics/swimming) as it is a bit too early to figure those out.

 

If anyone has any suggestions as to possible events a nation may qualify in, let me know.

 

Nice work, that's a very interesting list, it's almost impossible to know everything about all 200 NOCs in the world but I wonder what's your criteria to consider "chances" . more than 50% chances ? because our chance to qualify in basketball is surely less than 20% (with China being stronger than Iran and also hosting the World Cup as the main qualifier) on other hand our chance to qualify in every single men's classes in wrestling is more than that for sure .  I expect us to fail to qualify in 1 or 2 classes but not in those weights you didn't mention as "chance"

 

I watched the Iranian chances, surprised to see Sailing there !? I have to check is there anybody "not living in Iran" representing our country ? because I'm quite sure we don't have quality sailors here. this sport barely even exists.

 

Edit: I got that you only consider NOCs not qualified yet. so that's no big deal not being "accurate" but still my question stands about our chances in sailing ?!

Edited December 15, 2018 by MHSN

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

22 minutes ago, MHSN said:

 

Nice work, that's a very interesting list, it's almost impossible to know everything about all 200 NOCs in the world but I wonder what's your criteria to consider "chances" . more than 50% chances ? because our chance to qualify in basketball is surely less than 20% (with China being stronger than Iran and also hosting the World Cup as the main qualifier) on other hand our chance to qualify in every single men's classes in wrestling is more than that for sure .  I expect us to fail to qualify in 1 or 2 classes but not in those weights you didn't mention as "chance"

 

I watched the Iranian chances, surprised to see Sailing there !? I have to check is there anybody "not living in Iran" representing our country ? because I'm quite sure we don't have quality sailors here. this sport barely even exists.

 

Edit: I got that you only consider NOCs not qualified yet. so that's no big deal not being "accurate" but still my question stands about our chances in sailing ?!

 

I mostly look at recent world/continental results and world rankings for some sports while taking into consideration the qualification process. Naturally some sports will be more strict than others, based on the data that I have. In terms of wrestling I too was surprised that Iran didn't have an athlete in each male event, I guess they had (relatively) poor recent showings, I have no issue with adding them all, I was mostly waiting to see your reaction

 

I agree in basketball that China is the favourite, but with other nations competing things could get quite messy in the rankings.

 

For sailing, it more has to do with the weakness of Asia in Men's Finn. Iran's sailor (Ahmad Ahmadi) was third among Asian nations at the 2018 Worlds and one of those nations was Japan who is already qualified, the other is from Hong Kong. Of course, I suspect China will show up at the continental qualifier and take the quota, but if they don't I suspect Hong Kong and Iran will fight for that quota.

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

Added - Potential Boxing Quotas

 

Despite no approved qualification system I decided to add potential boxing quotas for the unqualified nations. The Men's Light Flyweight (-49kg) and the Men's Lightweight (-60kg) have been dropped while the Men's Bantamweight and Men's Light Welterweight have been adjusted from 56kg to 57kg and 64kg to 63kg respectively. On the women's side the Featherweight (-57kg) and Welterweight (-69kg) have been added.

 

Until the qualification document is released I'm going to be a bit strict on this sport. I am also currently ignoring athletes whom compete in non-Olympic events until at the very least they declare to move up/down a weightclass in order to compete at the Olympics.

[dcro 10,210]

Modern pentathlon is missing for Kyrgyzstan. With 5 quotas (max 1 per NOC) available at the Asian qualification event, I'd say Kyrgyzstan is a near lock in both genders.

Edited February 8, 2019 by dcro

[JoshMartini007 2,805]

2 hours ago, dcro said:

Modern pentathlon is missing for Kyrgyzstan. With 5 quotas (max 1 per NOC) available at the Asian qualification event, I'd say Kyrgyzstan is a near lock in both genders.

 

Thanks, didn't realize they made that change. It's surprising that they still gave Asia 5 quotas.