Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Olympian1010 8,235]

12 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

I think there are 2 quota reallocations on the cards on the men's side - Israel and Suriname don't have a second eligible rider and so they will have to reject the quota. Assuming that is the case, I'd project that  and  will get an individual quota for sprint/keirin. 

 

On the women's side, there is only 1 quota which should be subject to reallocation - Italy don't have an eligible second rider in the keirin/sprint behind Miriam Vece. In the most likely scenario, Italy will probably reject the keirin quota resulting in  picking up the spot for sprint/keirin.

Is there any particular reason you project  getting the reallocation instead of  if a quota becomes available in the men's sprint? 

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

11 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

Is there any particular reason you project  getting the reallocation instead of  if a quota becomes available in the men's sprint? 

It's based on my interpretation of the qualification document:

According to that section, the quota goes to the next highest-ranked NOC which has not yet qualified for the respective event - Colombia has already qualified a rider for the individual sprint through the keirin ranking so by my reading, they would not be eligible for quota reallocation and it would move down to Hungary. 

[JoshMartini007 2,768]

Quite impressed that Canada is one of three nations which will send a full team.

[Jan Linha 597]

Men's Sprint and Keirin - My prediction 

 

So UCI hasn't released the quotas yet so I was thinking to do some prediction. As each event should have 30 spots so after the competition in Milton I would predict like that. 

 

MEN'S SPRINT

Quotas from Team Sprint

2 quotas 

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

 

Olympic Ranking - 1 quota

 

Quotas from Keirin - 1 quota

 

MEN'S KEIRIN

 

Quotas from Team Sprint

2 quotas 

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

2 quotas

 

 

Olympic Ranking - 1 quota

 

Olympic Quotas from Sprint

 

Another possibility probably goes to the sprint. It looks like and may not be able to take 2 quotas, but not sure about the other riders and whether these 2 will be able to take 2 quotas or not. If not and the reallocation may go through Sprint instead of Keirin, then it should be 2 of these 3- also not sure whether Colombia would take 2 quotas. If takes 2 quotas, then it goes to and  . But they may not because of the regulations as each country may be allowed to take only 1 quota. 

 

I guess UCI may also make a decision based on ranking all 4 eligible countries in both events and take an average. In this option, surely may get it and then probably which is placed 16th and 17th when is placed 16th and 25th in the Olympic ranking. And if I add also :KAZ, their ranking is both events is 15th and 24th. 

 

I also checked your prediction guys above. If and get the quota, it means that it goes to the first country currently below the line in both sprint and keirin. is first below the line in Keirin and is first below the line in sprint. 

 

To summarize, based on the official document, it is surely mentioned and it will be reallocated to the highest ranked country that yet has not qualified. I think for other countries, it is a question whether and refuses the second quota and if so, in which event. Because their top athlete will surely participate in both events anyway 🙂 

 

Now, I am hoping for to get the quota and their position is Olympic ranking is just a bit below the line in both events 😀😀

 

 

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

1 hour ago, Jan Linha said:

To summarize, based on the official document, it is surely mentioned and it will be reallocated to the highest ranked country that yet has not qualified. I think for other countries, it is a question whether and refuses the second quota and if so, in which event. Because their top athlete will surely participate in both events anyway 🙂 

Israel and Suriname don't have a 2nd eligible rider to take so it's less of a question of whether they refuse the second quota and more a question of how UCI handles the reallocation. Given it is 2 places at stake, I think it is likely they give 1 quota to sprint rankings and the other to the keirin. If they give both to the same event, it could lead to protest. 

[Benolympique 2,414]

https://assets.ctfassets.net/761l7gh5x5an/5y52DrfqeZW6qd0NgZu21u/f0956c0dde482e83a0390b0239b5007b/Paris_2024_-_Track_-_Quotas.pdf

 

Quota Olympic

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

58 minutes ago, Benolympique said:

https://assets.ctfassets.net/761l7gh5x5an/5y52DrfqeZW6qd0NgZu21u/f0956c0dde482e83a0390b0239b5007b/Paris_2024_-_Track_-_Quotas.pdf

 

Quota Olympic

Interesting that they are showing  as 1st reserve for men's sprint - evidently the supplementary entry they got through qualifying in the keirin does not prevent them from qualifying a second rider.

[Olympian1010 8,235]

1 hour ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Interesting that they are showing  as 1st reserve for men's sprint - evidently the supplementary entry they got through qualifying in the keirin does not prevent them from qualifying a second rider.

That was my interpretation originally, which is why I questioned you about it. 

[Jan Linha 597]

I think that not all the quotas have been fulfilled. Maybe they informed by the "Reserves" so NOCs may know who may get another quota? Anyways, the ranking should close on 28th so I think on that day or maybe on Monday, they may release the full quota list. I there will be given some extra quotas but they haven't been announced yet. So for example, according to my counting, in the official document, there are only 26 confirmed quotas in Men's Sprint. I am counting like this because there are     and . I suppose these countries have to confirm whether they qualify 2 athletes (as they earned 1 quota in Sprint and 1 quota in Keirin) or whether take only one eligible athlete who will compete in both events. So I guess that means that UCI is waiting for the NOCs to confirm this quota and also they will have to approve whether this athlete is eligible to compete at the Olympics. If not, the quota will go to the reserves mentioned on the second page. Let's wait couple of days  :-D 

 

Anyways,  R1 in Women's omnium, R2 in Men's Keirin and Women's Keirin. I hope we get at least one reallocation :-D 

[phelps 8,302]

On 4/16/2024 at 2:09 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

Final track cycling quota projection:

 

 

I think there are 2 quota reallocations on the cards on the men's side - Israel and Suriname don't have a second eligible rider and so they will have to reject the quota. Assuming that is the case, I'd project that  and  will get an individual quota for sprint/keirin. 

 

On the women's side, there is only 1 quota which should be subject to reallocation - Italy don't have an eligible second rider in the keirin/sprint behind Miriam Vece. In the most likely scenario, Italy will probably reject the keirin quota resulting in  picking up the spot for sprint/keirin.

 

However, it may be possible that Italy could accept the second individual keirin quota and use it to nominate an extra endurance rider. Technically, I don't see anything in the qualification document that would prevent this - unless the eligibility clause relating to 10 points applies to the individual event - and it would give them the option of resting a rider for team pursuit qualifying. Given the team pursuit is run over 2 days rather than 1, I'm not sure it would actually give them that much of an edge though, so I'd still expect them to return the quota. 

I don't think  would reject any quota...

 

it would be stupid by them, they should use that quota to name one more specialist for the endurance races