[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 6 Minuten schrieb phelps:

 

France beat Italy in 2016 sub-19 Euro-final

Italy beat France in 2017 sub-20 world cup eightfinals

imho, France have a lot of talent, but they are not as good as they could be as a team...more in general, I also think they are overestimated as individuals...for example, Mbappè is physically stronger than Cutrone, but as an all-round forward (and even as a pure striker) the young Italian is way better (and Mbappè is estimated over 100 million €, meanwhile Cutrone isn't even always a starter for AC Milan...mysteries of football)...

moreover, they usually mess things up in qualifiers and the sub-21 final tournament is here in Italy...there are many things that should go against the French...

I totally agree about England...

and for what concerns Brazil...they finally got what they wanted, the Olympic Gold (and they got it at home) last time round...so, I'm not even sure they will qualify (they were not at the sub-20 world cup last year)...things in South America can be very complicated for them when they don't play at home (and there are only 2 spots available)...

 

however, as I wrote, Italy should start with ambitions, not that this means we're going to get anything (even if I'm sure that this time we have enough quality to get some success)...

Cutrone is WAY BETTER than Mbappe? WHAT? Sorry, but ... this can't be your honest opinion. Italy has some nice talent, but none of them is anywhere near the talent level of Mbappe or Dembele (maybe expect for Donnarumma).

I get that some of your predictions are only semi-serious (5 medals in track cycling, 13 medals in fencing), but this is on another level.

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 1 Stunde schrieb phelps:

let's see how Italy could place if the Games were about to start right now...

 

Archery: 1-2 medals (we have a shot in at least 4 of the 5 events -the 3 team competitions and also in the men's individual event- but I guess we should be very happy with a couple of tallies...men's team being the brightest chance)

Athletics: 1 medal (women's 20km race walk)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: 2-3 medals (Mesiano and Testa among the girls should be among the medal candidates, then the men's team is rebuilding, but we still have 2-3 good fighters...the problem is that they need a very lucky draw to get to the medal stages)

Canoeing slalom: hopefully 1 medal (we have some good athletes in both men and women's K1, but we should be realistic and 1 medal would be already a good success)

Canoeing sprint: 1 medal (if Tacchini continues to improve and WADA do their job properly, he has some good chances in the men's C1...maybe not for gold, but he could be on the podium for sure)

Cycling road: 2 medals (Italy can't start in a cycling road race without the ambition of winning at least a medal...and we also have some good bikers who could actually do it)

Cycling track: 5 medals (both team pursuit races, both omnium events, women's madison )

BMX: -

Mountainbike: -

Diving: 2 medals (if Cagnotto & Dallapè are seriously back, otherwise...no chance)

Equestrian: -

Fencing: 13 medals (there's no reason we shouldn't aim to get a medal in each and every fencing event, with the women's individual foil going for 2 at least...obviously we won't get that far, but the target is there for sure)...

Field hockey: -

Football: 1 medal (finally I hope we're going to make amend for all the past mistakes and go for the gold in men's football)

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (the group event should give us some satisfaction after Rio's disappointing outcome)

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: -

Handball: -

Judo: 3-5 medals (Basile, Marconcini, Manzi among the boys and Giuffrida, Gwend, Galeone among the girls should be a good insurance)

Modern pentathlon: 1 medal (I hope our youngsters who dominated the junior ranks in the past few years would be ready in time for Tokyo)

Rowing: 3-4 medals (coxless pair and four and the double sculls -both senior and lightweight)

Rugby: -

Sailing: 1-2 medals (women's RS:X, mixed Nacra more than others)

Shooting: 6-7 medals (all clay target events could -should- give us at least one medal, then Zublasing could eventually make up for her Rio disappointment...and if Campriani gets back at elast in the Air Rifle events...well, these could be 2 more big chances)

Swimming: 6-7 medals (Paltrinieri -men's Open Water 10k, 1500m and 800m- & Detti -1500m, 800m and 400m- should do the most of the damage, then we should have also 2 or 3 more chances with Quadarella -women's 1500m- Martinenghi/Scozzoli -men's 100m breastroke- and the girls of the Open Water 10k...then if Pellegrini makes up her mind about the 200m Free, that's could be one more big chance)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: -

Taekwondo: - (we have a lot of good young guns, but I think Tokyo will come too early for them...maybe Vito Dell'Aquila is the only real shot already in 2020...but frankly I'd be rather surprised to see any Italian on the podium)

Tennis: -

Triathlon: -

Volleyball (and Beach Volleyball): 2 medals (both men's and women's team must at least start to win a medal, even if it's not realistic that both would succeed...then Nicolai & Lupo in men's beach volley)

Water polo: 2 medals (and they should be 2 "heavy" medals)

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: 1 medal (Frank Chamizo in the men's freestyle...and always in the men's freestyle, maybe even Kudiamagomedov -if he gets the Italian passport in time- could be a pleasant surprise)

Surfing: -

Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA)

Sport Climbing: - (too soon to call...the new Olympic format could -should- mess things up and it's all to be seen what's gonna be the effect on the best specialists of the 3 traditional SC disciplines...however, I don't think Italy has too many chances of a medal)

Karate: 3-4 medals (both Kata events -whoever will be our man/woman in that competition + Busà, Marino, Maresca, Cardin, Semeraro in the Kumite events...all of them could be real medal threats in Tokyo...if they manage to qualify -with the strict rules they have set for this first Olympic appearance of Karate, the qualification pathway will be a lot more difficult than winning a medal once in Tokyo)

Total: it's well above the 50 medals...of course it will neve happen that we're gonna win them all...but those are all realistic hopes...let's say that we should be very happy with our "classic" 30 medlas (10 or more of them being Gold)...

but I'm sure that this time we have the potential to do a lot better than in recent past...

If France takes the football tournament seriously, then i see no chance for Italy there. Germany is rather weak in the category of players born in 1997 or later, so that should be no problem for Italy.

France could play with talents like Dembele, Hernandez, Mbappe, Aouar, Upamecano or Augustin.

Sadly England won't compete, they seriously could have challenged for gold with guys like Rashford, Sessegnon, Foden or Sancho.

France usually messes up the qualification tournaments, so who knows ... ?

Brazil usually takes the olympic football tournament very seriously and they don't have any major international tournament that year, so they could be really strong as well that year with guys like Jesus, Malcolm or Vinicius Junior.

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 2 Stunden schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

1) Because she was not 100%, recovering from injury (again), making her 2017 results the only ones really worth to be considered.

 

2) Yes, thank you...

1) Thanks, but i still don't get it. You assume that she would have been better otherwise, which is fine, but how do you know that ... :

a) ... Grabosch was in top shape when they met in 2017? You are taking her as a reference, but Grabosch exploded since the last world championships, improving her flying lap time by about 0.25 seconds.

b) ... Gros would have shown the same development as Grabosch without the injury? Grabosch is training with Vogel every day, while Gros doesn't have any athlete who is even remotely world class to train with (correct me if i am wrong).

In addition to that even Grabosch was chanceless against Vogel and i doubt that it would have looked much different if she would have had to compete against Ligtlee, Morton, Marchant or James in top shape. Why do you think that she will end up better than at least 3 out of Marchant/Morton/James/Vogel/Ligtlee? None of them will be even 30 by the 2020 olympics, so they are unlikely to get worse. I am not saying that Gros can't medal, i just don't see any reason to think that she is that much of a talent that she is bound to do it. You assume it because she won 3 golds at junior worlds and set a junior world record, shortly before her 18th birthday? Grabosch also won 3 individual golds and set multiple junior world records. Vogel won 6 golds at junior worlds, she won gold in the sprint and the 500 m time trial as a 16 year old, so what makes Gros such a special talent?

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

Do any track cyclist peak for anything else than the olympics these days ?

 

Anyway, just have a look at the 2017 WC then if you're not convinced.

 

 

I think all the medallists focused on the world championships this year, probably many other too. I think apart from GB, New Zealand, Australia + maybe Ligtlee everyone focused on this event.

What does 2017 WC or even 2017 EC have to do with the shape they are currently in? Grabosch was about 0.25 faster in qualification than last year, that's a huge improvement. The fact that she trains with Vogel every day gives her a huge advantage, i first want to see Gros getting the same results at senior level before i put Gros in the same category. Even if she would be on the same level as Grabosch, there are many other riders to consider, since the british girls + Ligtlee were missing and the russian/chinese girls seemed completely out of shape. She has a chance to win a medal in 2 years, but acting as if she is a safe bet or even a medal favorite is completely insane given her results so far. Out of the top 4 from the olympics only 1 athlete was here, all of those girls will be young enough to compete again in Tokyo. It probably would be best to postpone this discussion at least until the end of next year's world championships ...

 

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 32 Minuten schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

 She was not 100%, coming back from a shoulder injury. When fit, at the last euro championship in Berlin, she did beat Grabosh in the semi final...

Did any athlete in track cycling peak for european championships ... EVER?

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 3 Stunden schrieb LDOG:

 

That's a good point, for me the limit should be individual or pair events. Any event which involves 3 or more people making a team should stay 1 country, 1 quota.

That would only mean "no two boats of one nation in K4". The rules are not very fair in general. Why is it allowed to have more than one double in tennis but only one duo in diving? Maybe they only allow a nation to compete with two different K2's, if that nation has enough athletes in K4/K1 qualified to form 2 K2's? That would also be unfair, because what would happen with C2? It all seems to be rather tricky ...

Personally i would only allow multiple athletes of one nation in K1/C1, but not K2/C2/K4.

In Rio men's C2 was probably the least competitive event, so i would have preferred to see IOC cutting that event and keeping C1/K1 200 m, but that's just me. Considering that most nations seem to have huge problems to find one semi-decent team in C2, i doubt that allowing nations to enter more than one C2 would really make a difference ...

[OlympicsFan 783]

My expectations concerning number of medals:

I won't include the newly added sports, because i don't follow them and don't care about them.

Sadly we don't have the "How many athletes of your nation will qualify for the 2020 olympics" thread that we had before the last olympics ... until now, but i guess that's just because we don't know the qualifying procedure until now ... ?

Archery: 1-2 medals (women's team, women's individual)

Athletics: 6-7 medals (1-2 x men's javelin throw, men's discus throw, men's shot put, decathlon, men's pole vault, men's triple jump, men's 20 km race walking, women's 1500 m, women's 5000 m, women's 100 m hurdles, women's 3000 m SC, women's 4 x 100 m, women's long jump, women's shot put, women's discus throw, women's javelin throw, heptathlon)

Badminton: -

Basketball: -

Boxing: 1 medal (On the men's side: Baraou, Harutyunyan, Kadiru)

Canoeing slalom: 2 medals

Canoeing sprint: 6-8 medals

Cycling road: -

Cycling track: 4 medals (1-2 x women's sprint, women's keirin, women's team sprint, men's sprint)

BMX: -

Mountainbike: -

Diving: 1 medal

Equestrian: 6 medals (I hope that Germany will finally win a jumping gold medal)

Fencing: -

Field hockey: 2 medals

Football: 2 medals

Golf: -

Rhythmic gymnastics: -

Trampoline: -

Artistic gymnastics: 1-2 medals (Both on the women's side)

Handball: 1 medal

Judo: 3-4 medals (Germany had really good junior results in the last couple of years, i think there are 4-6 talents on the women's side that could turn out really strong + Wieczerzak and Vargas-Koch)

Modern pentathlon: -

Rowing: 4-5 medals (I hope that the tradition of Germany winning medals in both quadruple skulls events and men's eight will continue + i really expect a lot in men's single skulls)

Rugby: -

Sailing: -

Shooting: 4 medals (Of course the retirements of Junghänel and Engleder hurt, but Reitz and Karsch are still there. Reitz even seems to become a force in air pistol now ... Engleder got "replaced" by Beer + other athletes like Brodmeier, Link and Haaga should combine for another medal. I think the changes really helped Germany, in my opinion no medal chances were lost, but 2 new medal chances were created with the mixed air rifle/pistol team events)

Swimming: 1 medal (hopefully Germany will become stronger in open water swimming again, but sadly that doesn't seem very likely ...)

Synchronized swimming: -

Table tennis: 3 medals (I think the changes helped Germany, a new medal chance in the mixed team event)

Taekwondo: -

Tennis: 1-2 medals (Sadly the olympics won't be for another 2.5 years, right now Kerber and Görges would win 1-2 medals alone. Only a second top 15-20 player on the men's side is missing, Kuhn is on his way to become just that, sadly he doesn't compete for Germany anymore ...)

Triathlon: -

Volleyball: -

Beach volleyball: 1 medal

Water polo: -

Weightlifting: -

Wrestling: 2 medals

Total: 52-60 medals

 

The number seems really high, but i actually think it's not unrealistic. Germany has actually a lot of room for improvements in athletics (only 3 medals in 2016), canoeing slalom (no medal in 2016), cycling (only 2 medals in 2016) and judo (only 1 medal in 2016) + the new events in shooting and table tennis should help Germany. We also shouldn't forget that out of all the individual medallists from Rio only 4 reitred/will be too old to compete in Tokyo.

 

[OlympicsFan 783]

Am 31.1.2018 um 23:13 schrieb Mkbw50:

Less. Early prediction is return to Beijing levels...

I don't think so, I think you are much better in taekwondo (1 medal in Beijing), artistic gymnastics (1 medal in Beijing) or diving (0 medals in Beijing) now. I would say 55-60 medals are absolutely realistic for GB.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Am 18.1.2018 um 13:19 schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

You... have a great memory. The 4th day was ineed great with five medals, including the two equestrian ones. We only had one before that day.

Germany had the same problems, 0 medals on the first 3 days and then 3 medals on day 4.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Am 18.1.2018 um 13:04 schrieb De_Gambassi:

 

The early Rio days were a disaster (something like one medal after four days), so at the end of the day, it was ok/satisfactory (considering the early days, it could have been soooooooo much worse).

 

IIRC, 42 medals was the objective which would have been a record in modern days (which now have been beaten again by... Beijing 08 thanks to doping cases ) Golds were lacking a bit indeed, but the overall 7th spot in the medals table was judged fine..

 

Track cycling was indeed a disaster (only one bronze medal). It's the one sport (whith perhaps swimming) where we should gain a lot in Tokyo (if anything, Mathilde Gros should make sure of it). Boxing (6 medals) will certainly take a hit, but the introcution of Karate will hopefully compensate it.

What exactly does that mean? You see her as a medal favorite in 2020?

I doubt that she alone will be enough to lead France to a medal in team sprint, so this leaves only keirin and sprint.

In both events we will have Vogel and Morton (who will both be 29 in Tokyo), Ligtlee (who will be 26 in Tokyo), the british girls, the chinese girls and the russian girls. In keirin we will also have Degrendele. Grabosch was born in 1998 while Gros was born in 1999, we saw at the recent world championships how big the gap between those two is, so i honestly wouldn't expect any medals from Gros in Tokyo.

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 8 Stunden schrieb prso1000:

I think limitation to one country is good, as there are several disciplines. This is really stupid idea. 

If they do it in canoeing then they have to do it in rowing as well and maybe few other sports, and for slalom canoeing as well. 

Why not having then more than one competitor per nation in wrestling, taekwando, judo etc. 

 

 

 

I actually think that a nation should be allowed to enter 3 athletes in every event, of course only if they are good enough to qualify. Why can the US have 3 athletes in women's 100 m hurdles while China can only have 2 athletes in men's table tennis?

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 10 Stunden schrieb phelps:

 

c'mon, man!!! why???

they get us crazy with "universality" and "gender equality" and then they take decisions like this that would cut the number of medallists by more than 50%???

do they want GER and HUN to win almost every medal? why not giving them directly without even wasting money and time to organize the Olympic regatta?

Are we talking about sprint or slalom? I don't think that Germany would profit much from being allowed to enter more than one boat, maybe except for men's K1, don't know about Hungary ...

I would still like to know why you can enter 3 or more athletes in some events but only 1 in other events ... ?

[OlympicsFan 783]

vor 31 Minuten schrieb EselTheDonkey:

 

Basketball M:            Though I haven't given up hope for  

Handball M:              

Handball W.            

Football M:

Football W;

Field Hockey M:

Field Hockey W:

Volleyball M:

Volleyball W: 

I expect Germany to qualify in mens basketball. Missing the qualification would be a big disappointment with all the talent coming through. Do we know how the qualification will work? How many teams from Europe can qualify?

I think qualification in m/w football, m/w hockey and m handball should be pretty safe. I don't see any chance in water polo, softball, baseball, 3 x 3 basketball or rugby. Personally i am not too sad about that, because in my opinion 3 of those sports should not be olympic anyway and the only sport out of those that is really popular world wide is rugby. In women's basketball i also don't see any chance. In men's volleyball it's probably about 50/50, in women's volleyball and women's handball maybe 30/70. It would be nice to have at least two more teams than in Rio, which would mean at least 7 teams. 8 teams would be great, 9 teams would be incredible. 

[OlympicsFan 783]

Is this official? None of those sports should be olympic, maybe except for skatebording. None of those sports really adds anything to the olympic games and they are either extremely underdeveloped or the best athletes wont compete.

We for sure didnt need another team sport, where only 3 or 4 teams will fight for a medal or the 10th fighting sport. I can already tell 100% that i wont follow those sports in 2020. 

Surfing could be interesting, although we already have sailing at the olympics.

What will be next? Futsal, beach handball, squash or parcours?

The only reasonable explanation for everything IOC did in the last couple of weeks is that they try to destroy the olympics. This is completely contradictory to what they actually wanted to do and i can already tell that Bach is the worst president in the history of the IOC. Olympic games and olympic medals used to be something special, but in the future olympic medals will become completely random, because even hobby athletes will be able to win some.