Ok, this is turning into a monologue, but here we go.
The lists of gymnasts who will participate at the Pan American Championships have been released. No big surprises here, but with the nominative lists I can at least make a slightly better prediction.
Women's Olympic quotas:
99,99% chance 50% chance 40% chance Rebeca Andrade is the clear favorite here, but since everybody else from Brazil but Flávia Saraiva is also eligible for the quota, only a major upset would prevent Brazil from obtaining one of the quotas. I expect Magistrati to get the second quota, but maybe López might surprise and contend for the spot.
Now, for the medals in event finals, I expect Dominici and the aforementioned gymnasts to earn most, if not all, of the medals. The other ones with a chance of getting medals are Pena, Campos, Palacios and Santi. I was impressed with the girls at the 2019 Pan American Games. I sincerely hope they qualify to one of the finals. It's a shame will not participate. I know Danusia Francis has already qualified to the Olympics, but she could win a medal here. Bummer.
Men's Olympic quotas: 95% chance 40% chance 40% chance 10% chance Whittenburg should qualify easily, but Bock and Guimaraes could also surprise. Anyway, it's safe to assume that one of the quotas will go to the US. For the second quota, at least on paper, it should be a fierce battle between Sepulveda and Calvo. Soares has an outside chance, but he would have to perform on the same level he performed at the 2020 American Cup. Basically, a perfect competition and no mistakes. Mayol would need major mistakes from the other gymnasts to have a chance. Not sure if any of the guys can surprise.
The event finals should be interesting with lots of gymnasts fighting for the medals.