The four-member team format could shake things up, but, honestly, I doubt it. in men's artistic.
However, I'm not completely sold on the Japanese team. I don't trust any of them. Tanigawa, in special, is very unpredictable and if he screws up like he did a number of times in the past, Japan will not win a medal. However, provided they hit, they should score well enough to guarantee a medal. Ukraine always seems to have trouble in team finals and Great Britain chose Whitlock for their team, and he can only contribute in one apparatus, so I'm not too confident these countries could challenge for the podium. Chinese Taipei, Brazil, USA and Switzerland can score well, but they will need a major upset from the big names to even come close to the scores from the three teams I mentioned. in women's artistic gymnastics.
The US is the clear favorite here, thanks to Simone Biles, of course. The other girls are very good, but without Simone, they would be perfectly beatable. Don't let the unrealistic scores at US Nationals fool anyone: once Biles retires, the US team will not be nearly as dominant as they have been. For this year, however, they will still win gold. Russia has a couple of talented girls, but they usually receive higher scores than they deserve, so combine talent and bias and you have a favorite for the second place.
Now, the bronze medal will be very interesting. China relies too much on one event: balance beam. If their gymnasts fail, other teams might sneak in. The question is which countries would be able to do it. To be honest, I don't see any country with a particularly good team. Great Britain picked a team with two great gymnasts and two solid, but not particularly talented girls. Italy lost all of its steam. France has MDJDS, but nothing else. Japan will probably be over scored because of home advantage, but they don't have a good team. Germany is a mere shadow of their former selves. Canada is struggling with a limited number of gymnasts to choose from. Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands are completely out of the picture and in my opinion will not even qualify for the final.