I was looking at ranking across sports for our players/ teams . I think we can consider those in top 15 to have some chance of getting among medals at Rio, these are the players who are ranked within that range - Shooting
Jitu Rai - 3rd in 10M air pistol, 2nd in 50 m pistol
Abhinav Bindra - 13th in 10M air rifle
Gagan Narang - 11th in 50M rifle 3 positions
Mairaj Ahmed Khan - 9th in Skeet
There are 2 more shooters - Sanjeev Rajput and Pooja Ghatkar who are among top 10 but are not part of Rio squad. Archery
Womens team - 4th
Deepika Kumari - 12th
Laxmirani Manjhi - 15th Badminton
Saina Nahwal -5th
PV Sindhu - 10th (9th among those qualified for Rio)
K Srikanth - 11th (9th among those qualified for Rio) Tennis
Mixed doubles - there are no world rankings for mixed doubles. But if there were, I am sure Rohan-Sania would be among top 10. Boxing
Shiva Thapa - 6th
Vikas Krishnan - 6th Wrestling
Narsingh Yadav - 9th
Yogeshwar Dutt - 9th
Vinesh - 13th Mens hockey team - 5th ( For a team event, I do not consider top 15 as having a chance of a medal , therefore not including 13th ranked Indian womens team)
That makes it a total of 17 events.
To this I would add -
Tennis mixed doubles- there are no rankings for those but if there were I am sure Rohan-Sania would be in top 10.
Gymnastics- Deepa Karmakar was 5th in the last world championships in vault
Weighlifitng - Meerabai Chani has the 4th best lift this year.
Archery - Atanu Das finished 4th and lost to the world champion Korean in the last world cup
Shooting - Gurpreet Singh in rapid fire and 10M pistol, Manavjeet Sandhu /Kynan Chenai in mens trap, Apurvi Chandela/Ayonika Paul in womens 10 M air rifle, Gagan Narang- 10M Air rifle, Heena Siddhu in 10 M air pistol - all have won medals in world level events in last couple of years. So, considering the variability of results in shooting, they can shine on a given day at Rio.
I am not including anyone in athletics despite some staggering results by mens relay ream and mens jumpers.
So, it would make a total of 28 in starting lists with a shot at a medal.
However, uncertain part is most of them would require to improve on their rankings/ current position and over perform to finish among medals. Our athletes did that in London where we had even lower medal contenders. If they do that again and about 1/4th of the above do that , we may be looking at improving our medal tally above the London tally of 6.
The downside is if everyone performs exactly as per their rankings, we may end with 2-3 medals too.
Realistically, we are looking at a range between 2-8 medals for us at Rio.
I hope the more optimistic scenario materialises.