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If the number of cases per day (200+ day) keep multiplying till April 14, there will be no other option for the Indian govt but to extend the lockdown. Economic pain will be there but the if the lockdown is removed the cases will incrase manyfold. It really a difficult decision for government to take. How many cases we are getting per day in next 10 days will decide it.
Olympics to go on in July this year is becoming more and more difficult by day. So, it is futile to discuss our medal chances as of now. If it gets postponed to say next year, it is tough to predict at this stage since player's form can change a lot in a year.
So, these are QF line ups- Men's Flyweight - Amit Panghal vs. Carlo Palam (PHI) - Amit had won against Palam at last year's world championships 4-1, it can be a close one though with Amit slight favorite Men's Lightweight- Manish Kaushik vs. Chinzorig Baatrasukh (MGL) - Not much know of Mongolian, Manish should be favorite Men's Welterweight- Vikash Krishan Yadav vs. Quicy Okazwa (JPN)- Japanese is 2019 Asian championships silver medalist, so it will be a close one. Men's Middleweight - Ashish Kumar vs. Mikhel Robero Muskita (INA) - Ashish would be favorite Men's Light Heavyweight- Sachin Kumar vs. Chen Daixing (CHN) - Again not much achievement from Chinese but Sachin is also a newbi, so a close one Men's Super Heavyweight - Satish Kumar vs. Daivii Otgonbayar (MGL) - Satish would be favoured here Women's Flyweight - Marykom vs. Magno Irish (PHI)- Mary would be clear favorite here Women's Featherweight- Sakshi vs. Im Aeji (KOR) - both are new boxers. So, a close one Women's Lightweight - Simranjeet Kaur vs. Monkhor Namuun (MGL)- Namuun was a QF at WC and bronze medalist at Asian championships while Simran was a silver medalist in higher weight class, so this will be an even bout Women's Welterweight - Borgohain Lovlina vs. Melieva Maftunakhon (UZB) - Lovlina was WC bronze medalist , so would be favourite here Women's Middleweight- Pooja Rani vs. Chutee Pornnipa (THA) - Pooja was AC 2019 gold medalist, so favourite here. So, at least 6 out of 11 bouts we would be favoured, other 5 will be close and few will get a second chance even if they lose in QF. So, expecting about 8 quotas from her for Tokyo olympics. Anything more will be a bonus. Pooja, Lovlina on womens side and Vikas,Sachin, Ashish and Satish will have their QF today.
Also in close bouts, boxers get nod from judges on reputation too. That is how Amit got it today it seems. He meets a Philipino next who is no pushover. Amit will have to be much better than today to prevail. Gaurav Solanki was unlucky in that respect to draw the top seed and loses to him in close bout. Hope he will qualify in the world qualifying tournament.
This time there were no Chinese and North Korean teams. Also Iran did nit send their best team. So, India's medal tally was a but inflated due to this. We seem to have performed at same level as 2019. I think the only one one who really excelled was Ravi. To an extent Jitender performed above expectations. Bajrag, Deepak Punia, Vinesh lost matches which we were expecting them to fight on even terms. Others pretty much performed upto expectations. So, i would not call this great success for India.
This is the mens team- 52kg Amit57kg Gaurav Solanki63kg Manish Kaushik69kg Vikas Krishan75kg Ashish Kumar81kg Sachin Kumar91kg Naman Tanwar91kg +Satish Kumar A bit surprising that Gaurav Solanki won here ahead of Kavinder Bisht. Otherwise expected results. Good to see Vikas Krishan making an attempt again to qualify for olympics after turning professional.
Actually 2 extra points that one gets after taking the average of 5 best of last 6 international events has put Anjum close to a point ahead of Ela as of now. That looks a bit flawed clause in the policy. Also they did not count for world cup finals where Ela did so well. As a result, as of now Ela is much behind Anjum and will need to shot 4 or 5 points better than Anjum in Delhi world cup to overcome that close to 1 point deficit. That looks really difficult. So, if NRAI strictly adheres to the policy, Apurvi and Anjum are most likely to go. But, there is a clause that NRAI can make the changes in national interest. So, if NRAI considered current form as the criteria for that change, then there is a chance for Ela but NRAI has not done that in the past.
Just a few points from your wrestling predictions- I feel Ravi or Sandeep Tomar have better chances to qualify than Amit Dhankar/ Sushil im 74 kgs. Ravi is pretty good, lost a very close one for bronze at Asian champs against a world medalist. He can be a surprise package. Vinesh has confirmed that she will remain in 53 kgs. It is very difficult for her to cut her weight at every tournament now. She will take some time to adjust to the new category. Will know till world champions where she stands. As for medals at Tokyo, Bajrang and Vinesh seem to be only real medal hopes with outside chance for Pooja Dhanda and Sakshi Malik if they get lucky with the draw.
Yes, your point about 2-year period field for juniors in very important. I think for seniors we need to consider 10 year period as average. So, conversion from junior medals to senior medals has to be around 1/5th or so. Therefore, 24 medals at junior world champiionships would mea around 5-6 medals at senior level. That was our level already at London 2012. Another point is we had 8 medals in youth olympics 8 years back. None of those medalists have gone on to get anywhere close to being medalists in olympics and that 8 medal haul got converted to only 2 medals in Rio 2016. So, we have to be cautious about extrapolating these youth olympic medals and say that we will go to 10 medals level in 2024 olympics. First up I want us to get back r 6 medal level at Tokyo and then see how much we can improve over it by 2024.
We have 1 boxing too, So, we would be at 6 if we go by your estimate 1 more in wresling and shooting. I think getting back to 6 medal level achieved at London is a fair target for Tokyo olympics. Anything more would be a bonus.
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