nitinsanker

What an amazing performance by a Indian parathletes ..... We are 13th on the medal table with 24 medals ....  What an amazing performance by our paralympians..... They really have brought us so high on the medal table .... A position that India has never been at in either Olympics or Paralympics before .    

She's still in hospital but the danger is gone...no serious injury

Shit man the romanian had the worst possible fall against Kennedy blades , hope she is not seriously injured 

My last two parts of the log preview blog 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 3 of 4*
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 4.5 halfway through our posts ( after 4 sports  ) , so let us take the next few sports in alphabetical order
 
*Field Hockey *
 
Ah the great Indian sport , the quick passing , the classic dribble and lightning fast marauder but alas the situation is not so bright
First The women’s team did not make it , missing out narrowly in the qualifiers ( in fact the size of the Indian  Olympic team in Paris being smaller than the Tokyo squad was primarily due to this omission )
 
The mens team is currently ranked 7th,  in the world in 2020 we were ranked 4th , so there has been some decline in our position.

The draw is out – 12 teams divided into two groups of 6 and the top 4 in each group go into the quarters. Indias group consists of Australia , Belgium , Argentina , India , Ireland and  New Zealand. If our team  finishes in 2nd or 3 rd place in our group we will face probably Germany or England in the quarters against whom we have a  40-60 chance in my opinion . If we win that we can hope for a medal but a bit tough as of now 
 
*Golf*
 
Honestly having Golf here in the list of top 11 sports is only because of Aditi Ashoks 4th place finish in Tokyo. She will be in Paris again .  But For Aditi a Very , very long shot ( she is ranked 39th in the world ) but praying for a good performance from her and hopefully  she should is be in a leading pack of golfers , making India interested in golf again.

The other three golfers in Indian squad , are Diksha Dagar  and the two men – subhanker and Gaganjeet  and we hope they play their best but they are not likely to be close to a medal in my opinion.
 
*shooting*
 
Who can forget the dashing rajyavardhan with the Indian flag thown over his broad shoulders going to receive his silver or abhinav bindra lost in this private reality looking dazed as he realized he won the gold in 2008
 
Shooting  is one of the bigger sports at the Olympics giving medals in 15 events ( 5 shotgun , 5 Rifle , 5 Pistol ) . India has the biggest squad after china in this sport (with a maximum two possible quotas in 15 event  -30 in total ) India will be having a record representation of 27. We have been one of the dominant countries in shooting for quite a few years with astonishingly low results in the last two Olympics – a mind freezing zero . The biggest question sports Indian fans are asking is can Shooting redeem its pledge and show us the glory again. Let us look at shooting dividing it into the three types
 
*Shotgun* - of the three categories this is easily our weakest. We have 7 participants in the 5 shotgun events, but we have not had a single world cup medal in shotgun in  2024 or any world championship medals in the last two cycles. In the Asian games in 2022 we had a two   medals in  5 events - Mens skeet and trap individual. I would say the best chance may be anantdeep naruka in skeet or one of the two skeet Individual women shooters Razia and Maheshwari but still shotgun  will be a long shot for a medal
 
*Pistol* – we have the max possible shooters in pistol - 10 in 5 events . In the Asian games we   won 4 medals in the 5 pistol events and in the world championships we have one gold in mixed pairs in the last edition. So we have good prospects – *Manu bhaker ( 10 and 25 m ) , Esha ( 25 m ) sarabjot ( 10m )  and the mixed pairs*. I feel a medal is likely across the 5 pistol events
 
Rifle – This has been our forte in the last couple of years with 3 medals in the last 2 world championships,  5 medals in the Asian games in 5 events . we have decent chances in all the 5 events , *10m rifle men and women ( ela , ramita,  Arjun and sandeep ) , 50 m three positions men and women ( especially aishwary and Sift ) and in mixed pairs* . So hopefully 1-2 medals in 5 rifle events
 
 
In part 4 I  will cover the  remaining sports ( weightlifting , wrestling and TT ) and have my famous *eat my hat prediction* ( which over 5 multievents has not failed , my conservative nature  and love for my hat keeps me from failing ). We will look at the likely medals which I normally overestimate.  Olympic starts – Just a week now …. *Go India*
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 4 of 4*
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 6looking at 8 sports , so let us take the last 3  sports in alphabetical order
 
*Table tennis*
 
India have done well to qualify two full teams in TT for the Paris Olympics ( which means we field a teams in both men’s  and women’s  and 2 individuals in both mens and womens )  . This is historic as we  have never fielded any TT team before at the Olympics . 
 
Coming to our prospects lets start with the men, As the draw is out – The mens team are surely getting knocked out in the round of 16 as they face the mighty Chinese there , In mens singles sharath kamal at 42 years still the highest seeded male ( 24th)  would probably go into the round of 32 but then he faces a tough Japanese and probably that is the highest we can hope for from the other two men paddlers as well ( harmeet and manav)
 
The women team have a better draw ( having been seeded 11 ) , they face the 4th seed romanian team in the round of 16 ( a team they came close to beating in the qualifiers ) , so there  a ray of hope for  them to move into the quarters. If the reach the quarters they play Germany most likely ( seeded 5th ) where again they may have some chances.  The women also have been having an Indian summer showing unprecedented flashes of brilliances occasionally beating even the Chinese women paddlers, so this team match-ups may go all the way.. Coming to the individual. Both    Sreeja akula ( seeded 16 ) and Manika ( seeded 18 ) in the individual can reach the round of 16. Sreeja then faces the top seeded Chinese ( sun ) , manika is likely to face Hirano the 8th seeded Japanese. I feel these matches may be a bridge too far.
 
*weightlifting* -
 
In weightlifting we have just one qualifier , but what a jewel we have. The brilliant Power packed  Mirabhai Chanu is there in the 49 Kg weight category.  In this category Hui of china is way ahead of the rest ( capable of doing 217-220 kgs). But after that Mirabhai has the best PB ( 205kgs ) . Jordan( US ) ,  surodhana( Thailand) are her closest competition but both have PBs of just around 200 ( at 49 kgs )  , so if Mira is close to her best she should medal easily. The main issue here  is that Mira has been sporting injuries ( including the horrific one at the Asian games ) and we do not know the level of her fitness. If fully fit  a medal looks likely
 
*wrestling*
 
Last but not least we have the sport of wrestling , of the 6 member squad , 3 have won world championship medals ( vinesh , antim and Anshu ) , two u23 world championship gold medals ( reethika and aman ) . Give the draw Antims is seeded 4th , her chances seem good. Vinesh in her third Olympics would be very hungry to get the one medal her cupboard  lacks , barring Susaki she has beaten the rest so is a definite medal contender.
 
Aman has a tough draw with arsen and rei in his half so would need to produce something special to medal. Anshu has been suffering from some injury worries so may find it difficult. Reethika is a huge talent , have been impressed with her recent bouts so can produce a bit of an expected result and medal. Nisha the last of the group is probably unlikely to medal
 
But a medal is likely across the events
 
*Final predictions* – So with that we will end our journey with the total at 8 medals ,
 
Likely medal tally hence can be 6-11 medals in all.
 
Having watched Indian Olympic sports over the years this summary has been soul satisfying. I have over the last 6 olympics see India    rise slowly but steadily, From a time when a medal , any medal was unexpected , to  see that this Indian Olympic squad has at least 20 odd world championship medallists  and another 10 or so world junior or U23 world championship gold medallists, A team with  strong sports credentials  capable of besting the best 
 
Also  satisfying is that India has a  broad base of 11 sports where we can get at least an Olympic diploma ( top 8 finish ) in Paris This gives Indian olympic sports  great potential to rise further  . 
 
 
But who will medal for India and be feted with open arms accolades and awards , who will return heartbroken defeated by the turn of the game , who will be beaten down by injuries or  a better opponent only time will tell. 
 
But you ask me what of your eat my hat promise – which has not yet been broken through five multi-sport extravaganzas, What challenge will you throw down or will you preserve it in safe and conservative constraints
 
My Eat my hat prediction - at least 5 medals overall , and of those who are looking forward to the edifying spectacle of nitin eating his hat let me add an extra twist – also I will eat my hat if India does not get a shootijng medal this Olympics, Yes I see some of my well wishers  groan , shooting is the most ephemeral of sports you will say , You will implore  Nitin  the last two Olympics we have crashed and burned,  why risk that most alluring of headgear on such a difficult challenge but my heart is set and the gauntlet laid down , 
So with the glory of the games starting , I am sure we will be left with some immortal moments which will be etched in our minds eye forever. Do join and cheer our athletes, they have worked , struggled and toiled for this short moment in the sun , with the worlds eyes turned towards Paris.  
Guys the Olympics is free live streaming on Jio cinema  please do not miss this glorious time  . Go Indiaaaaaa, go  the 112 bravehearts, go heart and  mind in glorious unison   , go for glory, let the paris games begin

My last two parts of the log preview blog 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 3 of 4*
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 4.5 halfway through our posts ( after 4 sports  ) , so let us take the next few sports in alphabetical order
 
*Field Hockey *
 
Ah the great Indian sport , the quick passing , the classic dribble and lightning fast marauder but alas the situation is not so bright
First The women’s team did not make it , missing out narrowly in the qualifiers ( in fact the size of the Indian  Olympic team in Paris being smaller than the Tokyo squad was primarily due to this omission )
 
The mens team is currently ranked 7th,  in the world in 2020 we were ranked 4th , so there has been some decline in our position.

The draw is out – 12 teams divided into two groups of 6 and the top 4 in each group go into the quarters. Indias group consists of Australia , Belgium , Argentina , India , Ireland and  New Zealand. If our team  finishes in 2nd or 3 rd place in our group we will face probably Germany or England in the quarters against whom we have a  40-60 chance in my opinion . If we win that we can hope for a medal but a bit tough as of now 
 
*Golf*
 
Honestly having Golf here in the list of top 11 sports is only because of Aditi Ashoks 4th place finish in Tokyo. She will be in Paris again .  But For Aditi a Very , very long shot ( she is ranked 39th in the world ) but praying for a good performance from her and hopefully  she should is be in a leading pack of golfers , making India interested in golf again.

The other three golfers in Indian squad , are Diksha Dagar  and the two men – subhanker and Gaganjeet  and we hope they play their best but they are not likely to be close to a medal in my opinion.
 
*shooting*
 
Who can forget the dashing rajyavardhan with the Indian flag thown over his broad shoulders going to receive his silver or abhinav bindra lost in this private reality looking dazed as he realized he won the gold in 2008
 
Shooting  is one of the bigger sports at the Olympics giving medals in 15 events ( 5 shotgun , 5 Rifle , 5 Pistol ) . India has the biggest squad after china in this sport (with a maximum two possible quotas in 15 event  -30 in total ) India will be having a record representation of 27. We have been one of the dominant countries in shooting for quite a few years with astonishingly low results in the last two Olympics – a mind freezing zero . The biggest question sports Indian fans are asking is can Shooting redeem its pledge and show us the glory again. Let us look at shooting dividing it into the three types
 
*Shotgun* - of the three categories this is easily our weakest. We have 7 participants in the 5 shotgun events, but we have not had a single world cup medal in shotgun in  2024 or any world championship medals in the last two cycles. In the Asian games in 2022 we had a two   medals in  5 events - Mens skeet and trap individual. I would say the best chance may be anantdeep naruka in skeet or one of the two skeet Individual women shooters Razia and Maheshwari but still shotgun  will be a long shot for a medal
 
*Pistol* – we have the max possible shooters in pistol - 10 in 5 events . In the Asian games we   won 4 medals in the 5 pistol events and in the world championships we have one gold in mixed pairs in the last edition. So we have good prospects – *Manu bhaker ( 10 and 25 m ) , Esha ( 25 m ) sarabjot ( 10m )  and the mixed pairs*. I feel a medal is likely across the 5 pistol events
 
Rifle – This has been our forte in the last couple of years with 3 medals in the last 2 world championships,  5 medals in the Asian games in 5 events . we have decent chances in all the 5 events , *10m rifle men and women ( ela , ramita,  Arjun and sandeep ) , 50 m three positions men and women ( especially aishwary and Sift ) and in mixed pairs* . So hopefully 1-2 medals in 5 rifle events
 
 
In part 4 I  will cover the  remaining sports ( weightlifting , wrestling and TT ) and have my famous *eat my hat prediction* ( which over 5 multievents has not failed , my conservative nature  and love for my hat keeps me from failing ). We will look at the likely medals which I normally overestimate.  Olympic starts – Just a week now …. *Go India*
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 4 of 4*
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 6looking at 8 sports , so let us take the last 3  sports in alphabetical order
 
*Table tennis*
 
India have done well to qualify two full teams in TT for the Paris Olympics ( which means we field a teams in both men’s  and women’s  and 2 individuals in both mens and womens )  . This is historic as we  have never fielded any TT team before at the Olympics . 
 
Coming to our prospects lets start with the men, As the draw is out – The mens team are surely getting knocked out in the round of 16 as they face the mighty Chinese there , In mens singles sharath kamal at 42 years still the highest seeded male ( 24th)  would probably go into the round of 32 but then he faces a tough Japanese and probably that is the highest we can hope for from the other two men paddlers as well ( harmeet and manav)
 
The women team have a better draw ( having been seeded 11 ) , they face the 4th seed romanian team in the round of 16 ( a team they came close to beating in the qualifiers ) , so there  a ray of hope for  them to move into the quarters. If the reach the quarters they play Germany most likely ( seeded 5th ) where again they may have some chances.  The women also have been having an Indian summer showing unprecedented flashes of brilliances occasionally beating even the Chinese women paddlers, so this team match-ups may go all the way.. Coming to the individual. Both    Sreeja akula ( seeded 16 ) and Manika ( seeded 18 ) in the individual can reach the round of 16. Sreeja then faces the top seeded Chinese ( sun ) , manika is likely to face Hirano the 8th seeded Japanese. I feel these matches may be a bridge too far.
 
*weightlifting* -
 
In weightlifting we have just one qualifier , but what a jewel we have. The brilliant Power packed  Mirabhai Chanu is there in the 49 Kg weight category.  In this category Hui of china is way ahead of the rest ( capable of doing 217-220 kgs). But after that Mirabhai has the best PB ( 205kgs ) . Jordan( US ) ,  surodhana( Thailand) are her closest competition but both have PBs of just around 200 ( at 49 kgs )  , so if Mira is close to her best she should medal easily. The main issue here  is that Mira has been sporting injuries ( including the horrific one at the Asian games ) and we do not know the level of her fitness. If fully fit  a medal looks likely
 
*wrestling*
 
Last but not least we have the sport of wrestling , of the 6 member squad , 3 have won world championship medals ( vinesh , antim and Anshu ) , two u23 world championship gold medals ( reethika and aman ) . Give the draw Antims is seeded 4th , her chances seem good. Vinesh in her third Olympics would be very hungry to get the one medal her cupboard  lacks , barring Susaki she has beaten the rest so is a definite medal contender.
 
Aman has a tough draw with arsen and rei in his half so would need to produce something special to medal. Anshu has been suffering from some injury worries so may find it difficult. Reethika is a huge talent , have been impressed with her recent bouts so can produce a bit of an expected result and medal. Nisha the last of the group is probably unlikely to medal
 
But a medal is likely across the events
 
*Final predictions* – So with that we will end our journey with the total at 8 medals ,
 
Likely medal tally hence can be 6-11 medals in all.
 
Having watched Indian Olympic sports over the years this summary has been soul satisfying. I have over the last 6 olympics see India    rise slowly but steadily, From a time when a medal , any medal was unexpected , to  see that this Indian Olympic squad has at least 20 odd world championship medallists  and another 10 or so world junior or U23 world championship gold medallists, A team with  strong sports credentials  capable of besting the best 
 
Also  satisfying is that India has a  broad base of 11 sports where we can get at least an Olympic diploma ( top 8 finish ) in Paris This gives Indian olympic sports  great potential to rise further  . 
 
 
But who will medal for India and be feted with open arms accolades and awards , who will return heartbroken defeated by the turn of the game , who will be beaten down by injuries or  a better opponent only time will tell. 
 
But you ask me what of your eat my hat promise – which has not yet been broken through five multi-sport extravaganzas, What challenge will you throw down or will you preserve it in safe and conservative constraints
 
My Eat my hat prediction - at least 5 medals overall , and of those who are looking forward to the edifying spectacle of nitin eating his hat let me add an extra twist – also I will eat my hat if India does not get a shootijng medal this Olympics, Yes I see some of my well wishers  groan , shooting is the most ephemeral of sports you will say , You will implore  Nitin  the last two Olympics we have crashed and burned,  why risk that most alluring of headgear on such a difficult challenge but my heart is set and the gauntlet laid down , 
So with the glory of the games starting , I am sure we will be left with some immortal moments which will be etched in our minds eye forever. Do join and cheer our athletes, they have worked , struggled and toiled for this short moment in the sun , with the worlds eyes turned towards Paris.  
Guys the Olympics is free live streaming on Jio cinema  please do not miss this glorious time  . Go Indiaaaaaa, go  the 112 bravehearts, go heart and  mind in glorious unison   , go for glory, let the paris games begin

Instead of probabilistic figures in decimals, better to suggest like 1-2, 2-4, etc.
 
The content is awesome, like last time.

Hi @Prashanth @Prakash @Akshay007 @anuj  @Anshul Chavhan  @Bhaw @Dolby @Fly_like_a_don @gubchandrolai @nitinsanker @Roamingrover86 @Shravan Kumar @sanjaydas watch this video where we simulate the entire Badminton draw
 

*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 2 of 4 *
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 1.5 ( after athletics and archery ) , so let us take the next few sports in alphabetical order
 
*Badminton*
 
Badminton is the only sport other than wrestling where we have consistently medaled in the last 3 Olympics. So we are looking towards Badminton at Paris  with hope in our eyes and dreams in our heart . We have 5 quota Places in Badminton with 2 in Men singles ( lakshya and Prannoy ) , 1 in women singles ( the incomparable PV Sindhu ) , 1 in Men doubles ( Satwik and chirag affectionately called Satchi ) and 1 in Women’s Doubles *Ashwini and Tanisha* , Of these I am not focusing on The WD pair as they are ranked around 21  and really cannot be expected to produce any major results.
 
So lets look at the rest –
 
let’s start with my all-time personal favorite sportsperson – *the truly great PV Sindhu* , She is on the verge of GOATness  - if she medals here in Paris  she would be the first womens player ever to get 3 women’s Singles  medals ( Susi  susanto has 2 , same as PVS ) .  Sindhu  has been injured, not in great form and struggling a bit. Now coming to the current draw she is luckily seeded 10th, she should reach the round of 16 , but then she faces tough Chinese opponents in the round of 16 and QF so tough but not impossible . I am putting her as having a shot for medal because PVS is still PVS -  a great big tournament player who brings her best to each key tournament. Second her winning percentage in 2024 is 62.5 percentage  ( 63% in 2016 , 62% in 2021  ) so not too bad. This is the lady I will be really rooting for
 
*Lakshya sen* - Unseeded , has been in decent form though and has defeated most of the top players at one time or other . But draw is a bit unkind and placed him in the same group as Jonathan Christie ( seeded 3rd ) , he has a poor head to head record against Jo-Jo ( 0-3   though all three matches were 3-setters ) , so very difficult but not fully impossible to climb out of the group  into the round of 16 and then move up
 
*Prannoy* - he has been ill with a severe gastro problem and has been in very poor form this year but a classy player , still he is seeded 13th and hence will most likely  reach the round of 16 but tough after that
 
*Satchi in Mens doubles* -  Here are chances are bright , they have won a world championship medal and have been world number 1 , defeated all the top players. In the olymp[ics they have been seeded number 3 .  They are in the same 4 member group as Alfian and Adriano ( INA )  ( they have a 3-2 head to head record against them ) along with two weak doubles pairs , they should top the group and reach the quarters where I think again they should get through , Semis may be a toss up so a medal and even Gold can happen here.  
 
So let us  say a 1.3 medals chances  from badminton .
 
*Boxing* -  Boxing at least at the world championship level has been the best olympic sport of all for India. We currently in this world championship cycle have 5 world championship medals ( 2 Gold medals in women and 3 bronze medals in mens ), so Boxing should be a good sport for us at Paris.
 
 but there are caveats 1 )  IBA which is the world body conducting the world championships has been blacklisted by the IOC , the championships had  many countries boycotting so the medals do have maximal sheen 2) Our NOC handling this has been having few problems where they changed the methods of selections midway , the high performance director Bernard Dunne was sacked after poor results in mens qualifiers
 
But I feel we have definitely 4 major medal prospects – Nikhat( 50 kg )  and Lovlina ( 75 kg )  in the women and Amit( 51 ) and  Nishant ( 71 ) .
 
In fact even the other two hard hitting feisty preeti ( 54) and lanky Jaismine ( 57 ) do have some chance because boxing has a  low number of quota places, just  two-three  winning bouts and you are in the semis ( all semifinalists in boxing get medals ) . But let us focus on our best bets . all four of whom have won world championship medals
 
*Amit Panghal* – a great name of Indian boxing , has won every medal you can -  Asian Gold , Commonwealth , world championship[ silver . But He had a terrible Tokyo where seeded one he lost in the first round. Amit at 28 is wily and very experienced, he has fought his way into the Indian team after  Deepak bhoria had replaced him. I feel he is very very determined to redeem himself at the Olympics and get the one medal he lacks , on the counter side he has not had a lot of top level matches since he was  dropped from the national side
 
Nishant dev – A world bronze medallist he is a fearless boxer , he was in rehab throughout 2022 but has bounced back with decent results after that. He has lost crucial fights in the quarters at the asian games and the qualifiers so at the highest level slight question marks but  he can  medal . I would say decent chances . Between the two men I am hoping for one medal
 
Nikhat Zareen – The telengana tigress is one of the best women boxers in her category a winner of two world championship golds, she rarely loses , she lost a semi finals  medal match in the Asian Games but in the last couple of years she has just lost twice , I feel strong prospect of a medal and can go for Gold as well.
 
Lovlina Borgohain – has an Olympic medal and 3 world championship medals ( 2 bronzes and a gold ) , so definitely a much storied boxer again at her prime ( 26 years ) , she is bit unfortunate in her seeding , which is 8th . she is likely to face world number 1 Li Qian in the QFs , she lost to li qian in the Asian games but defeated her in the world championships earlier , so this is a  bit of a toss up
 
But overall I am expecting 2 medals from Boxing factoring in the long shots as well.

Guys give some love to my blog posts 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 1 of 4 *
 
Aha it is that time again with the Olympics round the corner and let us see where we are.  A double digit number or just a rio like  situation lets uncover the truth together
 
This three part series would start with the overall Olympic team  and go through the major sports ( I am excluding 5 sports in this coverage – tennis , rowing , sailing , judo , equestrian where if come in the top 20 or so that would be good ). I will be covering the other 11 sports   in alphabetical order  and then end with my predictions ( including the world famous eat my hat prediction ) . so let’s get down to business
 
 
*Overall*
 
We have *113 sportspeople in 16 sports* who will be donning Indian colors in Paris in less 2 weeks. This is smaller than our best performing squad which was Tokyo 2020. That squad had *122 athletes in 18 sports* ( we do not have representation in Gymnastics and fencing this time ) (see table1). In fact this squad is even smaller then our rio squad ( 117 ). But on the plus side we have a 92 event – participation which is the highest ever ( compared to 89 in 2020 Tokyo ). Remember each event participation can win us a medal . where a 16 member men’s hockey squad can only win 1 medal    technically  a single shooter like manu  can win 3 medals because she has a participation in three events. 
 
Let us run through sports one after the other now. In alphabetical order that brings us to archery
 
*Archery* - this sport has been a heart breaker for me , because we have won many world championship medals , come to the quarter finals at least 5-6 times in recent Olympics to my recollection ( including 3 times in Tokyo alone ) but have never crossed the QF stage. So high quality but low output.
First the good news we have the full squad of 6 (for only the third time  , which means we will have the maximum participation possible – a 9 event-participation ( 3 each  in women’s and men’s singles , Men’s, women’s and mixed team ) . well no one is really standing out as a true medal hopeful but many decent players who with a bit of luck can medal.
 
We do have chances with Bhajan and Deepika in women's individual , Dhiraj and Tarundeep in men's individual , the  men's team ( which accomplished the rare feat of defeating Korea in the recurve mens team event in a world cup ) and the mixed team. We have been doing well with an average medal haul of 1.6 medals in the world cups. But and that is iust a big big BUT we have as always not been able to perform in the crunch moments including that we did not qualify at  any of the qualifiers but had to get through using the world ranking criteria .
 
So long and short of it I would say a 50-50 chance of  One medal across all the events
 
*Athletics* -
 
Indian atheletics had to often content itself with finals performances and almost there stories. But of course things are different becasuse we have Neeraj chopra ( current Olympic , world and Asian champion in our midst). Of course the remarkable Neeraj ( he has always medalled in every event he has participated in since 2018 as per statistics ) remains our best bet , we would definitely with his consistency expect a medal ,
 
it would need a very good performance from weber( GER ) , Jakub Vadlejch( CZE) , Nadeem( PAK )   or Peter(GRN) to take away gold from Neeraj , An average performance by neeraj should easily beat the average performances by any of the others. SO obviously Gold hopeful.
 
Other than neeraj , finals appearance by Indians in athletics is far and few ( 2 in Tokyo , 1 in rio etc ) so if we can get 2 more finals appearance that would be an improvement , Here the remarkably hard working Avinash Sable in Steeplechase ( he recently broke the national record for the 13th time ) , the mercurial mens 4*400 squad who finished 5th in the world championship , Kishore Jena in Javelin , Annu Rani In womens javelin , Parul in womens steeplechase are probably the best bets ( kishore, Annu and Parul all  have not been in good form though ) . So One medal Possibly  Gold  very likely and 1-2 other finalists.
 
*

*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 2 of 4 *
 
Lets see , we had a medal count of 1.5 ( after athletics and archery ) , so let us take the next few sports in alphabetical order
 
*Badminton*
 
Badminton is the only sport other than wrestling where we have consistently medaled in the last 3 Olympics. So we are looking towards Badminton at Paris  with hope in our eyes and dreams in our heart . We have 5 quota Places in Badminton with 2 in Men singles ( lakshya and Prannoy ) , 1 in women singles ( the incomparable PV Sindhu ) , 1 in Men doubles ( Satwik and chirag affectionately called Satchi ) and 1 in Women’s Doubles *Ashwini and Tanisha* , Of these I am not focusing on The WD pair as they are ranked around 21  and really cannot be expected to produce any major results.
 
So lets look at the rest –
 
let’s start with my all-time personal favorite sportsperson – *the truly great PV Sindhu* , She is on the verge of GOATness  - if she medals here in Paris  she would be the first womens player ever to get 3 women’s Singles  medals ( Susi  susanto has 2 , same as PVS ) .  Sindhu  has been injured, not in great form and struggling a bit. Now coming to the current draw she is luckily seeded 10th, she should reach the round of 16 , but then she faces tough Chinese opponents in the round of 16 and QF so tough but not impossible . I am putting her as having a shot for medal because PVS is still PVS -  a great big tournament player who brings her best to each key tournament. Second her winning percentage in 2024 is 62.5 percentage  ( 63% in 2016 , 62% in 2021  ) so not too bad. This is the lady I will be really rooting for
 
*Lakshya sen* - Unseeded , has been in decent form though and has defeated most of the top players at one time or other . But draw is a bit unkind and placed him in the same group as Jonathan Christie ( seeded 3rd ) , he has a poor head to head record against Jo-Jo ( 0-3   though all three matches were 3-setters ) , so very difficult but not fully impossible to climb out of the group  into the round of 16 and then move up
 
*Prannoy* - he has been ill with a severe gastro problem and has been in very poor form this year but a classy player , still he is seeded 13th and hence will most likely  reach the round of 16 but tough after that
 
*Satchi in Mens doubles* -  Here are chances are bright , they have won a world championship medal and have been world number 1 , defeated all the top players. In the olymp[ics they have been seeded number 3 .  They are in the same 4 member group as Alfian and Adriano ( INA )  ( they have a 3-2 head to head record against them ) along with two weak doubles pairs , they should top the group and reach the quarters where I think again they should get through , Semis may be a toss up so a medal and even Gold can happen here.  
 
So let us  say a 1.3 medals chances  from badminton .
 
*Boxing* -  Boxing at least at the world championship level has been the best olympic sport of all for India. We currently in this world championship cycle have 5 world championship medals ( 2 Gold medals in women and 3 bronze medals in mens ), so Boxing should be a good sport for us at Paris.
 
 but there are caveats 1 )  IBA which is the world body conducting the world championships has been blacklisted by the IOC , the championships had  many countries boycotting so the medals do have maximal sheen 2) Our NOC handling this has been having few problems where they changed the methods of selections midway , the high performance director Bernard Dunne was sacked after poor results in mens qualifiers
 
But I feel we have definitely 4 major medal prospects – Nikhat( 50 kg )  and Lovlina ( 75 kg )  in the women and Amit( 51 ) and  Nishant ( 71 ) .
 
In fact even the other two hard hitting feisty preeti ( 54) and lanky Jaismine ( 57 ) do have some chance because boxing has a  low number of quota places, just  two-three  winning bouts and you are in the semis ( all semifinalists in boxing get medals ) . But let us focus on our best bets . all four of whom have won world championship medals
 
*Amit Panghal* – a great name of Indian boxing , has won every medal you can -  Asian Gold , Commonwealth , world championship[ silver . But He had a terrible Tokyo where seeded one he lost in the first round. Amit at 28 is wily and very experienced, he has fought his way into the Indian team after  Deepak bhoria had replaced him. I feel he is very very determined to redeem himself at the Olympics and get the one medal he lacks , on the counter side he has not had a lot of top level matches since he was  dropped from the national side
 
Nishant dev – A world bronze medallist he is a fearless boxer , he was in rehab throughout 2022 but has bounced back with decent results after that. He has lost crucial fights in the quarters at the asian games and the qualifiers so at the highest level slight question marks but  he can  medal . I would say decent chances . Between the two men I am hoping for one medal
 
Nikhat Zareen – The telengana tigress is one of the best women boxers in her category a winner of two world championship golds, she rarely loses , she lost a semi finals  medal match in the Asian Games but in the last couple of years she has just lost twice , I feel strong prospect of a medal and can go for Gold as well.
 
Lovlina Borgohain – has an Olympic medal and 3 world championship medals ( 2 bronzes and a gold ) , so definitely a much storied boxer again at her prime ( 26 years ) , she is bit unfortunate in her seeding , which is 8th . she is likely to face world number 1 Li Qian in the QFs , she lost to li qian in the Asian games but defeated her in the world championships earlier , so this is a  bit of a toss up
 
But overall I am expecting 2 medals from Boxing factoring in the long shots as well.

Guys give some love to my blog posts 
 
*India at the Paris Olympics 2024- the preview  by Nitin Sanker part 1 of 4 *
 
Aha it is that time again with the Olympics round the corner and let us see where we are.  A double digit number or just a rio like  situation lets uncover the truth together
 
This three part series would start with the overall Olympic team  and go through the major sports ( I am excluding 5 sports in this coverage – tennis , rowing , sailing , judo , equestrian where if come in the top 20 or so that would be good ). I will be covering the other 11 sports   in alphabetical order  and then end with my predictions ( including the world famous eat my hat prediction ) . so let’s get down to business
 
 
*Overall*
 
We have *113 sportspeople in 16 sports* who will be donning Indian colors in Paris in less 2 weeks. This is smaller than our best performing squad which was Tokyo 2020. That squad had *122 athletes in 18 sports* ( we do not have representation in Gymnastics and fencing this time ) (see table1). In fact this squad is even smaller then our rio squad ( 117 ). But on the plus side we have a 92 event – participation which is the highest ever ( compared to 89 in 2020 Tokyo ). Remember each event participation can win us a medal . where a 16 member men’s hockey squad can only win 1 medal    technically  a single shooter like manu  can win 3 medals because she has a participation in three events. 
 
Let us run through sports one after the other now. In alphabetical order that brings us to archery
 
*Archery* - this sport has been a heart breaker for me , because we have won many world championship medals , come to the quarter finals at least 5-6 times in recent Olympics to my recollection ( including 3 times in Tokyo alone ) but have never crossed the QF stage. So high quality but low output.
First the good news we have the full squad of 6 (for only the third time  , which means we will have the maximum participation possible – a 9 event-participation ( 3 each  in women’s and men’s singles , Men’s, women’s and mixed team ) . well no one is really standing out as a true medal hopeful but many decent players who with a bit of luck can medal.
 
We do have chances with Bhajan and Deepika in women's individual , Dhiraj and Tarundeep in men's individual , the  men's team ( which accomplished the rare feat of defeating Korea in the recurve mens team event in a world cup ) and the mixed team. We have been doing well with an average medal haul of 1.6 medals in the world cups. But and that is iust a big big BUT we have as always not been able to perform in the crunch moments including that we did not qualify at  any of the qualifiers but had to get through using the world ranking criteria .
 
So long and short of it I would say a 50-50 chance of  One medal across all the events
 
*Athletics* -
 
Indian atheletics had to often content itself with finals performances and almost there stories. But of course things are different becasuse we have Neeraj chopra ( current Olympic , world and Asian champion in our midst). Of course the remarkable Neeraj ( he has always medalled in every event he has participated in since 2018 as per statistics ) remains our best bet , we would definitely with his consistency expect a medal ,
 
it would need a very good performance from weber( GER ) , Jakub Vadlejch( CZE) , Nadeem( PAK )   or Peter(GRN) to take away gold from Neeraj , An average performance by neeraj should easily beat the average performances by any of the others. SO obviously Gold hopeful.
 
Other than neeraj , finals appearance by Indians in athletics is far and few ( 2 in Tokyo , 1 in rio etc ) so if we can get 2 more finals appearance that would be an improvement , Here the remarkably hard working Avinash Sable in Steeplechase ( he recently broke the national record for the 13th time ) , the mercurial mens 4*400 squad who finished 5th in the world championship , Kishore Jena in Javelin , Annu Rani In womens javelin , Parul in womens steeplechase are probably the best bets ( kishore, Annu and Parul all  have not been in good form though ) . So One medal Possibly  Gold  very likely and 1-2 other finalists.
 
*

A group of powerful countries invaded a less powerful country , occupied it for 12 years or so , killed 600 thousand civilians , executed its president .. .  This was in 2003 ....Poland was one of the countries do you think Poland should have been banned .....

Let look at facts 
 
1) what is the Olympic truce - it says all warring parties ( including those who are at war ) should cease hostilities for a certain period of time ...starting from a few days before the games to few days after the games to allow for athletes to come and go freely ....
 
2) during this period of time from early 1990s  when the idea was adopted America is the country which has been continually  in the most conflicts 
 
3) America has  not ceased hostilities at any point during the Olympics and has  violated the truce freely ..... 
 
For example this article in 2004 when many countries signed the truce declaration before the athens games says 
 
 
"The truce, however, is clearly not observed by Washington, which has troops fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Asked why US forces were not observing an Olympic cease-fire, US Secretary of State Colin Powell told reporters on Friday that while the idea was a noble one, "The world does not stop entirely for the Olympics."
 
Serbias head basketball coach recently  said "They say that Russia violated the Olympic rules, but I want to emphasise that the United States violated such rules 35 times, almost 20 countries, including serbia," he said"
 
I have not counted but I suppose every games where USA are fighting a war they do not stop, so violate this truce ......so must be a big number ....... I would like you to show me one example where usa says "hey we are going to cease all our hostilities during the period of the games" other than ceremoniously signing this so called truce  ( so do Google ) 
 

The U.S. has had its own share of apparent violations of the Truce — wars in the Middle East, namely. In 1998, the IOC implored the U.S. not to violate the spirit of the Truce by engaging in military action against Iraq.
“Not to my knowledge is any of the decision-making or thinking that the president and his senior policy leaders are undertaking affected by sporting events,” then-White House spokesperson Mike McCurry retorted.
 
So what do you say to this 

I am listing only US invasions of other countries 
1954 Guatemala CIA overthrows the government of President Jacobo Arbenz Guzman. 1958 Lebanon US marines and army units totaling 14,000 land. 1958 Panama Clashes between US forces in Canal Zone and local citizens. 1959 Haiti Marines land. 1960 Congo CIA-backed overthrow and assassination of Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba. 1960-1964 Vietnam Gradual introduction of military advisors and special forces. 1961 Cuba CIA-backed Bay of Pigs invasion. 1962 Cuba Nuclear threat and naval blockade. 1962 Laos CIA-backed military coup. 1963 Ecuador CIA backs military overthrow of President Jose Maria Valesco Ibarra. 1964 Panama Clashes between US forces in Canal Zone and local citizens. 1964 Brazil CIA-backed military coup overthrows the government of Joao Goulart and Gen. Castello Branco takes power. Read More 1965-1975 Vietnam Large commitment of military forces, including air, naval and ground units numbering up to 500,000+ troops. Full-scale war, lasting for ten years. 1965 Indonesia CIA-backed army coup overthrows President Sukarno and brings Gen. Suharto to power. 1965 Congo CIA backed military coup overthrows President Joseph Kasavubu and brings Joseph Mobutu to power. 1965 Dominican Republic 23,000 troops land. 1965-1973 Laos Bombing campaign begin, lasting eight years. 1966 Ghana CIA-backed military coup ousts President Kwame Nkrumah. 1966-1967 Guatemala Extensive counter-insurgency operation. 1969-1975 Cambodia CIA supports military coup against Prince Sihanouk, bringing Lon Nol to power. Intensive bombing for seven years along border with Vietnam. 1970 Oman Counter-insurgency operation, including coordination with Iranian marine invasion. 1971-1973 Laos Invasion by US and South Vietnames forces. 1973 Chile CIA-backed military coup ousts government of President Salvador Allende. Gen. Augusto Pinochet comes to power. 1975 Cambodia Marines land, engage in combat with government forces. 1976-1992 Angola Military and CIA operations. 1980 Iran Special operations units land in Iranian desert. Helicopter malfunction leads to aborting of planned raid. 1981 Libya Naval jets shoot down two Libyan jets in maneuvers over the Mediterranean. 1981-1992 El Salvador CIA and special forces begin a long counterinsurgency campaign. 1981-1990 Nicaragua CIA directs exile "Contra" operations. US air units drop sea mines in harbors. 1982-1984 Lebanon Marines land and naval forces fire on local combatants. 1983 Grenada Military forces invade Grenada. 1983-1989 Honduras Large program of military assistance aimed at conflict in Nicaragua. 1984 Iran Two Iranian jets shot down over the Persian Gulf. 1986 Libya US aircraft bomb the cities of Tripoli and Benghazi, including direct strikes at the official residence of President Muamar al Qadaffi. 1986 Bolivia Special Forces units engage in counter-insurgency. 1987-1988 Iran Naval forces block Iranian shipping. Civilian airliner shot down by missile cruiser. 1989 Libya Naval aircraft shoot down two Libyan jets over Gulf of Sidra. 1989 Philippines CIA and Special Forces involved in counterinsurgency. 1989-1990 Panama 27,000 troops as well as naval and air power used to overthrow government of President Noriega. 1990 Liberia Troops deployed. 1990-1991 Iraq Major military operation, including naval blockade, air strikes; large number of troops attack Iraqi forces in occupied Kuwait. 1991-2003 Iraq Control of Iraqi airspace in north and south of the country with periodic attacks on air and ground targets. 1991 Haiti CIA-backed military coup ousts President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. 1992-1994 Somalia Special operations forces intervene. 1992-1994 Yugoslavia Major role in NATO blockade of Serbia and Montenegro. 1993-1995 Bosnia Active military involvement with air and ground forces. 1994-1996 Haiti Troops depose military rulers and restore President Jean-Bertrand Aristide to office. 1995 Croatia Krajina Serb airfields attacked. 1996-1997 Zaire (Congo) Marines involved in operations in eastern region of the country. 1997 Liberia Troops deployed. 1998 Sudan Air strikes destroy country's major pharmaceutical plant. 1998 Afghanistan Attack on targets in the country. 1998 Iraq Four days of intensive air and missile strikes. 1999 Yugoslavia Major involvement in NATO air strikes. 2001 Macedonia NATO troops shift and partially disarm Albanian rebels. 2001 Afghanistan Air attacks and ground operations oust Taliban government and install a new regime. 2003 Iraq Invasion with large ground, air and naval forces ousts government of Saddam Hussein and establishes new government. 2003-present Iraq Occupation force of 150,000 troops in protracted counter-insurgency war 2004 Haiti Marines land. CIA-backed forces overthrow President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

A group of powerful countries invaded a less powerful country , occupied it for 12 years or so , killed 600 thousand civilians , executed its president .. .  This was in 2003 ....Poland was one of the countries do you think Poland should have been banned .....

The question is should a country banned for the invasion of another country ....if the answer is yes 
 
Then yes israel should be banned , not just for 2023 but for 2014 , 2004 etc invasions of gaza  
 
Usa should have been banned for 1989 invasion of panama 
 
The 2001 invasion of Afghanistan ( for not giving up Osama bin laden ) 
 
The 2003 invasion of Iraq ( for hypothetical weapons of mass destruction ) also great britain , Australia and Poland 
 
Saudi arabia for the invasion of yemen 
 
Etc etc ....
 
 
My answer is no do not ban any country ... Keep sport away from the wars .... This is unjustified to ban any country ..... 
 
 

I sum the points of the top 2 athletes for each country (and then 3rd and 4th from the same country if necessary).
 
Here was the top 10 for men's doubles at the end of 2023, using that system: https://results.totallympics.com/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=1753&pid=84684

after 8 months of absence, people were mostly worried about his situation, but surprisingly he looked very good and fresh in Hungary last week. in past 8 years he destroyed everybody not named David Taylor. he is the huge favorite now that Taylor is out. but of course nothing is guaranteed, he has 3 big opponents.

So the Olympics starts from 26 July, I am aiming for few podcast in July
1 - Analysis of Badminton draw and predictions
2 - Full contingent and medal predictions (I wish for Totallympics family to be part of this)
3 - Wrestling predictions (I can do this with you and someone from Totallympics family is welcome)

Hi @Prashanth, @Fly_like_a_don, @Sanjib, @Prakash, @Dolby, @Roamingrover86, @Indian Sports fan, @Prakash_k, @Vaibhav Manocha, @Vaibhav (minchu), @rohan sharma, @Shravan Kumar @sounak  @rajiv , @silentAssassin, @nitinsanker@Arup please find my podcast on Indian Weightlifting with Dipankar Gogoi . Dipankar is quite knowledgeable on Indian sports gave his keen observations.  We discuss various topics like History of Weightlifting in India, Current qualification cycle and predictions for Mirabai Chanu in 2024 Olympics.
 
 

I do hope that Chopra wins again, that was certainly such a special moment in Indian Olympic sport, and the growth of Olympics viewership in India 

Sujeet had his chances today, I mean for a moment I thought he threw the Mongolian and jumped from my chair  (unfortunately the Mongolian escaped it)
he has to win two matches tomorrow, the first one will be the hardest against Kudiev/Retherford , if he wins this, the next one will be 50/50 . Retherford will be the favorite IMO
 
as for Jaideep, he wins the 1st match, I think he has a chance against Demirtas. something like 40% and then if it's Valiev he can try to tire him down.
 
so in short I think they have a realastic chance but they are clearly not the favorite (or not even the 2nd favorite) to take it.

I have to give credit to Rafiq Huseynov for winning the quota. he won 4 hard matches at this old age to do so. and that was my prediction too 
 
but he had some helps from the refs in all 4 matches, some small helps and some big big helps like the India match, to me Sunil Kumar clearly got robbed in the last second. 
Sunil also got robbed in Asian Qualifiers against Berdimuratov. poor guy 

@MHSN    your analysis as usual awaited now that draws are out