Arnoud Beldman

Ah, it's of course Kelly instead of Christa. Short nights are already kickin' in ;-)

Yeah Christa competes in women’s 57kg. No worries 

Is it really that intriguing of a matchup? Even as a Canadian, I’m expecting a 10-0 loss by ippon for Deguchi 

Not injured, but Japanese artistic gymnast Shoko Miyata will miss the games for disciplinary reasons (smoking and drinking).

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Thursday 25th July: official draw (14:00-15:00 CEST)

7. Draws
The draws will be conducted based on the ITTF Table Tennis World Ranking Lists
published on 16 July 2024.
Date: 24 July 2024
Time: 17:00
Location: Press Conference Room in SP4

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Marlen Reusser (cycling, individual time trial and road race) and Jolanda Neff (MTB) both miss the Games
 
https://www.plattformj.ch/artikel/223043/

Last Olympics in Tokyo it was two days before the first contest, so I would say Thursday 25th of July.

IWF published the final ranking
https://iwf.sport/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2024/05/Paris-2024_Olympic-Qualification-Ranking_FINAL_24052024.pdf
 
but yet it's not really final. there is a note in the document 
 
"Following the relevant Anti-Doping Result Management processes are concluded, the Olympic Qualification Ranking may be updated further. With special regards to cases of Member Federations with multiple Anti-Doping Rule Violations referred to the Independent Member Federations Sanctioning Panel as per art. 12.3.2 of IWF Anti-Doping Rules."
 
 

M71kg
 
Qualifiers- 5
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick- Shamser Shaidov (6) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Aidan Walsh (4) .
Other Contenders- Zeyad Eashash (2) , Eskerkhan Madiev (9) , Yurii Zakharieiev (5) .
First of all 70 entries is ludicrous and I do think some countries underestimated the quality that would still be left in the draw at this tournament. Anyway, I’ve officially given up on 2021 world champion Yurii Zakharieiev. I've picked him twice and he has failed me twice so while I still believe he probably is the most talented boxer in this bracket he will not fail me again. Of course given that he is now up against Irish opposition I’m sure he will all of sudden be back to his best. He has an awkward opening fight against Merven Clair (27)  leading up to a likely last 16 fight with Aidan Walsh provided Walsh can beat either Youcef Yaiche (33)  or Salvatore Cavallaro (39) . Walsh may or may not be in form, I have no idea what to expect from him really but I trust him more than Zakharieiev right now. The top half of this bracket is strong with Zeyad Eashash opening his account against 2021 world bronze medallist Alban Beqiri (23)  before a likely fight against Kelvin Soquessa (29) . Meanwhile recent European silver medallist Eskerkhan Madiev has to navigate two opening fights before meeting the winner of surprise German selection Deniel Krotter (18)  and recent Elorda cup winner Shamser Shaidov who is Russian but apparently was born in Tajikistan. Shaidov has mixed results in Russia and therefore is hard to guage and it is possible he comes unstuck especially against Eashash but like Walsh and Zakharieiev I don’t exactly trust Eashash either. This is a bit of a projection and its possible this prediction looks terrible in a weeks time but as I said I don’t really trust Shaidov's competition.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Wanderson de Oliveira (3) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Jorge Cuellar (7) .
Other Contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) , Sarkhan Aliyev (11) , Steve Kulenguluka (15) , Frederick Kiwitt (20) .
A fascinating group of contenders here with Wanderson the slight favourite amongst them. His second fight against Stephen Zimba (35)  or Bruno Fernandes de Barros (34)  won’t be easy but his first major test should come in the last 16 against Sarkhan Aliyev or Damian Durkacz. Steve Kulenguluka was robbed of the African quota and it is good to see he at least gets a second bite at the cherry here. He will likely meet Jorge Cuellar although Cuellar does have to beat pro WBF world champion Frederick Kiwitt. I hope Kulenguluka can come through this fight but I’ll go with the safer pick and pick Cuellar. I am picking Wanderson to qualify here but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a shock or two in this bracket.
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick- Nishant Dev (1) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Gurgen Madoyan (19) .
Other Contenders- Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar (12) , Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (16) .
The draw has been pretty kind to Nishant Dev and not all that much stands between him and a quota. His toughest fight before a quota match will be in the last 32 against the winner of Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov and Byamba-Erdene Otgonbaatar. He would then face Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (31)  or Peerapat Yesungoen (24)  in the following round. The identity of who he would then face him is up in the air with Gurgen Madoyan starting as slight favourite over Junior Petanqui (25) , Vasile Cebotari (26) , Kim Il Hyok (30)  and maybe even Nidal Foqahaa. None of them stand much of a chance against Nishant though.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Lewis Richardson (8) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexander Rangel (14) .
Other Contenders- Kasra Tahmasebi (13) , Angel Llanos (17) .
It pains me that Lewis Richardson got this good a draw. He will have some challenges against the relatively unknown Kasra Tahmasebi before meeting Miroslav Kapuler (28)  or Tiago Muxanga (21)  prior to a tough enough quota fight. Alexander Rangel is the likely opposition in that quota fight but he does have to beat Angel Llanos or Sergio Martinez (22) . It would be a major failure for the British if Richardson can’t come through here.
 
Box offs
 
Aidan Walsh vs Jorge Cuellar, Gurgen Madoyan vs Alexander Rangel.
 
I would back Rangel to beat Madoyan but I’m not so sure about Walsh vs Cuellar. I think I would lean towards Walsh and I think either would go on to beat Rangel
Quota prediction- Shamser Shaidov , Wanderson de Oliveira , Nishant Dev , Lewis Richardson , Aidan Walsh .

M57kg
 
Qualifiers- 3
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick- Rujakron Juntrong (2) .
Other Contenders- Shamil Askerov (7) , Munarbek Seitbek Uulu(11) , Roland Veres (14) , Nguyen Van Duong (17) .
Rujakron Juntrong returns to the Thai selection for his home qualifiers after Sarawet Sukthet  was given and nearly took the opportunity at the first world qualifier. His toughest fight may well be against Shamil Askerov who got the nod for selection ahead of Umid Rustamov . The winner of that fight would then likely face either Pawel Brach (25)  or Caleb Tirado (23)  for a spot in the quarter final bout. The other half of the bracket is interesting with opening round fights between Lucas Fernandez (21)  and Roland Veres, two Tokyo Olympians in Jean Caicedo (27) and Van Duong Nguyen and Michele Baldassi (24)  facing Munarbek Seitbekk Uulu. Seitbek Uulu should navigate that fight and the feisty Armando Sigauque (30)  which would lead to a last 16 fight against Caicedo or Nguyen for the right to probably lose to Juntrong or Askerov although Seitbek Uulu did beat Juntrong back in 2019. I will back the home boxer to come through here but there will be numerous close fights in this bracket.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Asror Vokhidov (3) .
Other Contenders- Daniyal Shahbakhsh (10) , Yoel Finol (13) , Enkh-Amar Kharkhuu (16) .
Asror Vokhidov despite not qualifying was very impressive at the first world qualifier and while not easy the draw has been fairly kind to him here. His toughest challenge before a quarter final will be against either Yoel Finol or 2022 European youth champion Aider Abduraimov (20) . The other side of the bracket is nearly a straight fight between Daniyal Shabakhsh and Enkh-amar Kharkhuu but the young Denis Bril (29)  could potentially cause an upset in the following round. On current form Vokhidov would be a comfortable favourite to beat either Shabakhsh or Kharkhuu.  
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick-Owain Harris-Allan (4) .
Other Contenders- Sachin(5) , Samuel Kistohurry (9) .
India made a bunch of changes to their squad for this tournament after perceived failures at the previous two qualifiers and Bernard Dunne leaving as high-performance director but I don’t really understand this one of returning to Sachin over world bronze medallist Mohammed Hussamuddin  and I think it could cost them a quota. Sachin’s path to a quarter final involves either Miguel Vega (18) or Frederik Lundgaard Jensen (32)  followed by probably Batuhan Ciftci (15) . The other of the side of this bracket is interesting with Olympian Samuel Kistohurry who returns to the French squad after missing the first two qualifying tournaments having to navigate an awkward opener against George Molwantwa (35)  and then an even awkwarder fight against either Tryagain Ndevelo (22) or O Tae Bom (26) . His reward for winning those would be a fight with Owain Harris-Allan who has a couple of tricky openers himself. I think Harris-Allan is in the better form than Kistohurry. To be fair to Sachin he did take an impressive tournament win at Strandja and I don’t know which way a fight between him and the Brit would go. Then again I would have picked Hussamuddin if he was here.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Carlo Paalam (1) .
Other Contenders- Yousef Iashash (6) , Artur Bazeyan (8) , Jose de los Santos (12) .
Olympic 52kg silver medallist Carlo Paalam was unlucky at the first qualifier with a bodyslam againt Andrey Bonilla  leaving him with basically one arm for his subsequent fight against Shukur Ovezov (19)  and he will almost immediately get the chance to avenge that loss with him likely to meet with Ovezov again in the last 32. 2022 European champion Artur Bazeyan has been terrible so far in his attempts at qualifying but has the chance to right that somewhat here with a fascinating encounter with Yousef Iashash who has beaten Bazeyan before provided they can both navigate relatively straightforward opening fights. Iashash is a surprise selection for the Jordanian team given Mohamed abu Jajeh talents but Iashash is an accomplished boxer in his own right. It is tough to see either Iashash or Bazeyan beating Paalam but you never know. Jose de los Santos only has to beat 54kg African champion Amadu Mohamed (31)  and Ping Lyu (28)  to presumably reach the quarter finals but like Iashash and Bazeyan is likely to be outmatched against Paalam although that should be a very entertaining fight
 
Box-offs
 
Rujakron Juntrong vs Asror Vokhidov, Carlo Paalam vs Owain Harris-Allan
 
Quota prediction- Rujakron Juntrong , Carlo Paalam , Asror Vokhidov .
I am confident in picking Paalam but the top semifinal is a coin flip for me maybe leaning Juntrong with home advantage. I do think either would beat Harris-Allan though.
 
M63.5kg
 
Qualifiers- 5
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick-Erdenebat Tsendbaatar (1) 
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexandru Paraschiv (12) .
Other Contenders- Radoslaw Rosenov (3) .
First of all a word for the poor John Ume (NR)  and Mikael Broman (NR) who with 65 entries are the unfortunate pair who have to box a last 128 fight. I think Ume will win that one. Anyway the top half of this bracket is quite barren with a last 32 fight between recent European silver medallist Alexandru Paraschiv and Louis Richarno Colin (19)  likely to decide who reaches a quota fight although Abdelhaq Nadir (22)  may have something to say about that in the subsequent round. Asian games champion Chinzorig Baatarsukh  has been suspended for doping but Mongolia have a worthy candidate to attempt to take his place in 2 time Olympian and former world bronze medallist Erdenebat Tsendbaatar. He does have to navigate an early matchup with Saparmyat Odayev (21)  to set up a high quality last 16 fight with Radoslav Rosenov who himself has to beat David Grevorgkian (16) . It is strange that a boxer of Rosenov’s calibre is an underdog in the final qualifying tournament but he has had his chances to qualify. That should be one of the fights of the tournament and the victor should win the  quota from this bracket.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Emilio Garcia (6) 
Projected losing quarter finalist- Ali Habibinezhad (9) .
Other Contenders- Joseph Commey (14) , Oier Ibarreche (20) .
Emilio Garcia has been given a pretty easy draw with just commonwealth 57kg silver medallist Joseph Commey in his path to a quota fight. There Garcia should meet recent Elorda cup champion Ali Habibinezhad provided he can  come through Jonas Jonas (27)  and Oier Ibarreche. Not the most interesting bracket but Garcia vs Habibinezhad should be fun.
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick- Erislandy Alvarez (2) .
Projected losing quarter finalist- Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (4) .
Other Contenders- Viliam Tanko (10) .
Some interesting fights here but like the second bracket unlikely to be too exciting before the quota fight. Erislandy Alvarez has fights against the unproven Cleisson dos Santos (25)  and probably Yaroslav Khartysz (15) . Meanwhile Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu matches up against Chriztian Pitt Laurente (30) , the physical Narek Hovhannisyan (24) and likely Viliam Tanko who himself has to beat Gianluigi Malanga(18) . Alvarez vs Bazarbay Uulu should be a really good fight but Alvarez is the more talented boxer.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Shion Nishiyama (8) 
Projected losing quarter finalist- Alexy de la Cruz (5) .
Other Contenders- Jose Viafara (7) , Aleksej Sendrik (11) , Malik Hasanov (13) , Patris Mughalzai (17) .
Alexy de la Cruz and Jose Viafara are the clear cut favourites here but that was also true previously in this qualification cycle and neither converted those opportunities plus there are enough other tricky opponents to make this one quite interesting. First up for Viafara is Patris Mughalzai who earned the British selection by right on this occasion by beating 2021 world bronze medallist Reece Lynch  who was injured earlier this season. Next up for Viafara is Abhinash Jamwal (26)  who is a complete unknown internationally. Alexy de la Cruz needs to beat Aleksej Sendrik who himself caused an upset beating Rosenov in Busto Arsizio to set up a fight with Viafara. Alexy de la Cruz has won this matchup before so starts as favourite although his recent form has been concerning. Shion Nishiyama impressed at the previous qualification tournament and only really has Malik Hasanov or Chol Man Choe (23)  between him and the quota fight. I trust Nishiyama to make it that far and I don’t trust de la Cruz or Viafara so I’m going to hedge my bets a bit and just pick Nishiyama who could beat either of them anyway.
 
Box-offs
 
Alexandru Paraschiv vs Ali Habibinezhad, Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu Vs Alexy de la Cruz
 
I know this a pointless exercise because I’ll be shocked if more than 1 of these losing quarterfinalists are correct but while all these fights will be close I do think Bazarbay Uulu is the safest pick probably beating Habibinezhad in the quota fight.
 
Projected quotas- Erdenebat Tsendbaatar , Emilio Garcia , Erislandy Alvarez , Shion Nishiyama , Mukhammedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu .

Right predictions part 1 of 2 (well at least I really hope I get the rest done tomorrow and it only takes 2 parts)
 
I only got 18/49 (36.7%) right at the first world qualifier so I'm out for redemption this time out although given the high number of entries again I'll be happy enough with 50% which I think would put me over 50% for qualifying as a whole which would be ok I guess. It's interesting and counter-intuitive but it is very clear to me that the biggest factor in the difficulty of predicting these is the number of entries. You wouldn't intuitively think adding ten boxers who aren't likely to qualify would make the division harder to predict but yet it seems to.
 
Anyway, I'll post the 6 weightclasses (W54,W57,W66,M57,M63.5,M71) that start today/ tomorrow (I dunno its 3 am and this tournament starts in four hours, does that count as today or tomorrow) (Friday anyway) now and then hopefully do the rest tomorrow. I'm going stick with the format of predicting each of the four brackets and then addressing box-offs depending on the number of quotas available. I'll also post top 30 rankings for each of these weightclasses on the boxing Olympic rankings thread (Although no one seems to use them, ah sure I'll post them anyway.)
 
North Korea and Mongolia make their return after missing the first world qualifying tournament so basically everyone is here. South Africa is the biggest countries I have noticed aren't competing here but I'm sure I am missing someone.
 
W54kg
 
Quotas- 4
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick- Sandra Drabik (2) .
Other Contenders- Johana Gomez (5) , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (6) , Scarlett Delgado (8) , Shera Mae Patricio (9) , Ulzhan Sarsenbek (12) .
 
The strongest bracket comfortably in this weightclass with 6 boxers who are legitametely good enough to be at the Olympics. I think Sandra Drabik is the best boxer in this bracket but I have doubts about her ability to be consistent enough to win 4 tough fights in a row. She opens with the only last 64 fight in this division with a tricky enough matchup with Estefani Almanzar(14)  which should set up a tremendous fight with Johana Gomez. The other last 32 fight on this side of this bracket sees Shera Mae Patricio face Kazakh youngster Ulzhan Sarsenbek who is only 18 and surprisingly replaces former Asian Zhaina Shekerbekova . As such Sarsenbek must be talented although her results at youth level were good but not elite. The other last 16 fight should see Scarlett Delgado meet Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg provided they can beat Amina Faki (28)  and Mikoto Harada (18)  respectively. Sandra Drabik will be the favourite in any of these fights individually but will be severely tested especially by Gomez and Mungunsetseg and I am very tempted to back Mungunsetseg on account of her easier path to the quota fight.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Im Aeji (3) .
Other Contenders- Romane Moulai (7) .
From the strongest bracket to the weakest. Im Aeji probably deserved to qualify at the first world tournament having beaten Hsiao Wen Huang  and being very unfortunate to not get the decision against hometown boxer Sirine Charaabi . Thankfully she has been granted a pretty easy path to securing her second Olympic appearance this time around meeting Zeina Nassar (21)  first up before her toughest fight against Romane Moulai which should decide the quota. Zeynab Rahimova (20)  is drawn against 3 of the weakest boxers here in any division and should easily progess to the quota fight but would likely be outmatched there against Im or Moulai.
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick- Hsiao Wen Huang (1) .
Other Contenders- Bojana Gojkovic (11) .
For the third time I will back 2023 world champion Hsiao Wen Huang to win a quota and she has a pretty straightforward path to it although I thought that last time as well. Not the easiest fight against American based Perla Bazaldua (16)  before meeting the winner of Melissa Mortesen (19)  and Marta Lopez (17) . Like the previous bracket Bojana Gojkovic who having tried her luck at 57kg at the first world qualifier returns to bantamweight has a ridiculously easy draw for her first couple of fights but unfortunately Hsiao Wen Huang should await in the quota fight.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Jennifer Lehane (4) .
Other Contenders- Anastasiia Kovalchuk (10) , Ekaterina Sycheva (13) .
It says something about the ridiculous quality of the top bracket that none of these subsequent brackets are that strong. 2022 European champion Anastasiia Kovalchuk has been in awful form over the past year or so and with her being drawn in the same bracket as Jennifer Lehane, heres to hoping that bad form continues for one more tournament. Kovalchuk had a shock loss in her opening fight time in Italy and has been rewarded this time around with an opening fight against the exact same opposition Islem Ferchichi (15)  who is an awkward opponent. Jennifer Lehane should await in the last 16 and unless Kovalchuk has a miraculous return to form that will likely be the end of her Olympic journey this time around at least. Ekaterina Sycheva is the pick of the bottom half of the bracket.
 
W57kg
 
Qualifiers- 4
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick- Maud Van der Toorn (1) .
Other Contenders- Alyssa Mendoza (7) , Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag (8) .
60kg world youth champion Maud Van der Toorn will probably end up being a 66kg at some point in her career but was remarkably effective as a massively oversized featherweight at the first world qualifier. She starts off here against Guadalupe Solis (14)  before meeting Marie Al-Ahmadieh (16) . Al-Ahmadieh’s opening fight is against Josefien Betist (26)  who appears to be Irish having won under 22 and intermediate Irish titles last year but recently won a European under 22 bronze medal with the Netherlands and is here representing Sierra Leone. It would be interesting to see her family tree. At the top of this bracket Alyssa Mendoza meets Bolortuul Tumurkhuyag in what should be a fascinating fight. The winner would then face Olga Papadatou (19)  and Anastasiia Molochko (15)  on their way to a quota fight. Van der Toorn would favoured against either but is still very young and inexperienced.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Xu Zichun (6) .
Other Contenders- Satsuki Yoshizawa (10) , Paek Jin Hyang (17) , Claudia Nechita (11) .
This should be a competitive bracket without a clear favourite. Xu Zichun fights Paek Jin Hyang who like most of the North Koreans is still largely an unknown quantity before meeting Lucie Sedlackova (18) . On the other side of the bracket relative youth meets experience with Satsuki Yoshizawa facing Claudia Nechita with the winner meeting either Canan Tas (22)  or Szabina Szucs (20)  who are likely to be very evenly matched. Xu is the obvious pick here but the other 3 contenders should all believe they could win this quota.
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick- Elise Glynn (5) .
Other Contenders- Jaismine (9) .
The Brits and their easy draws. Its insufferable. Elise Glynn should cruise to a quarter final where she is virtually guaranteed to meet Jaismine who was supposed to just be a reserve for Ankushita at 60kg but as a result of Parveen’s suspension for a whereabouts violation she got drafted in at this weightclass. Glynn is better than Jaismine but you never know.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Esra Yildiz (2) 
Other Contenders- Jenifer Fernandez (3) , Nilawan Techasuep (4) .
Well this one is confusing. Olympian Esra Yilidz looked very good at the first qualifying tournament but lost a month ago to Andela Brankovic (21)  who she now faces in her first fight. The fact that that loss came in Serbia perhaps clears things up a bit though. That would set up a fight with Jenifer Fernandez provided she herself can beat Jin Hye Jeong (13) . That Yildiz vs Fernandez fight would quite possibly be the most interesting fight in this division. The winner would then likely face hometown boxer Nilawan Techasuep unless she loses to Nikolina Cacic (11) .
 
W66KG
 
Qualifiers- 4
 
Bracket 1
 
My pick - Kristina Kuluhova (3) .
Other Contenders- Navbakhor Khamidova (4) , Leonie Mueller (6) .
Serbia’s latest Russian import starts as favourite here although she is only 20 and is largely unproven. Her path to a quota fight is quite tricky with both Natalya Bogdanova (16)  and Luna Beeloo (13)  capable of causing an upset. The top half of the bracket sees surprise German selection Leonie Mueller who replaces 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge face the winner of Navbakhor Khamidova and experienced pro Joanna Nwamerue (18) . Khamidova starts as the marginal favourite to beat Mueller and reach the quota fight but while its never a great idea to bet against the the Uzbeks I do think the young Russi.. oh wait Serbian Kuluhova should take this quota.
 
Bracket 2
 
My pick- Anastasia Chernokolenko (12) .
Other Contenders- Ivanusa Moreira (15) , Sara Kali (17) .
Interesting bracket without a clear cut favourite. I’m nervous picking a Ukrainian after the nightmarish performance they had at the first world qualifier but Chernokolenko was the only one to redeem that performance somewhat by at least reaching a quota fight. She should at the very least reach that far again with Saida Lahmidi (20)  the toughest challenge in her path. On the opposite side of the bracket Ivanusa Moreira has to navigate an unknown opponent in Gricelda Duran (21)  before facing Sara Kali in what should be a very competitive fight. If we do indeed get a Chernokolenko vs Moreira quota fight it would be a very tall affair and while it would be disappointing for Cape Verde if a boxer of Moreira's quality fails to qualify I think she will fall just short.
 
Bracket 3
 
My pick- Arundhati Choudhary (2) .
Other Contenders- Emilie Sonvico (5) , Camila Camilo (8) , Stephanie Pineiro (9) .
India return to their Asian Games selction of Arundhati Choudhary and while her path to a quota is tough she does start as marginal favourite. First up is Olympian Stephanie Pineiro, before a likely fight against recent European medallist Jessica Triebelova (11)  who Choudhary did beat at Strandja this year. Emilie Sonvico and Camila Camilo should face off for the other spot in the quota fight provided they can navigate fights against Friza Asiko (30)  and Ganzorig Badmaarag (19)  respectively. I’m not sure who wins that fight but Choudhary has beaten Sonvico before. I wouldn’t shocked if any of the four I’ve listed as contenders come through to qualify here.
 
Bracket 4
 
My pick- Grainne Walsh (1) 
Other Contenders- Blessing Oraekwe (7) , Ani Hovsepyan (10) , Hwang Hyo Sun (14) .
I was initially very happy with this draw for Grainne Walsh but on second viewing it is a little bit tougher than I had thought. Grainne has a straightforward opener before facing Hyo Sun Hwang whose only fight was a closer than expected loss to world and Asian champion Liu Yang at Asian games especially concerning given the level of favourable judging Chinese boxers typically got at Asian Games so it is possible albeit unlikely that Hwang is Olympic medal calibre. What follows would be an easier fight against Nilufar Boboyorova (29) . The other half of the bracket is fascinating with 2022 70kg European champion Ani Hovsepyan facing recent African champion Blessing Oraekwe. Oraekwe beat 2022 70kg world silver medallist and soon to be 2 time Olympian Alcinda Panguane  to win the African games so is clearly talented. The winner of that fight would then face the victor of the New Zealand derby between Cara Wharerau (23) and Sheilla Yama (22)  who have both beaten eachother in New Zealand in recent years. Grainne Walsh is by far the most proven and safest pick here but the unknown quantities of Hwang and Oraekwe scare me
 

Yes but Italy is guaranteed to win the quota by ranking in case someone else gets the European quota. So, one way or another, Italy will have 2 men and therefore 2 teams.
 

This qualifier is limited to nations who had only qualified 1 boat at the World Champs last year so GB (and most of the main European nations) aren't eligible to compete and will look to get further boats qualified at the last chance regatta next month. 

Probably that's it. They are giving an extra quota to Peru, simply because they don't know how to be clear in their documents. 

A contradiction regarding how the host country quota gets reallocated is my interpretation.
 
Paragraph D1.2 of the qualification document mentions that an unused host country quota ends up to the next highest placed athlete from 2024 World Championships. This would mean Brazil, as their athlete finished 14th.
 
However, paragraph F2 states that an unused host country place is reallocated to the next highest placed NOC from 2024 World Championships, provided that the NOC is not yet qualified. If this is applied after handing out continental quotas, Peru is first on the line. 
 
Peru's federation first reported that they got a quota on 13 March, much earlier than world aquatics. 

Yes, that's a mistery
 
I have asked World Aquatics on X

This Belgian website https://sporza.be/nl/2024/04/03/nina-sterckx-is-nu-ook-zeker-van-ticket-voor-olympische-spelen-in-categorie-onder-59kg~1712180352047/ states that Nina Sterckx has too choose by may 1 between 49 and 59 kg. "Meetings between her entourage and the Belgian Olympic Committee are being planned to make a thorough ethical and medical correct decision."

this is just a mistake, he can't qualify in another weight per rules

Its a bit strange. I still believe that UWW posted early draft, and that final list will be different.