I love that you compiled this!
It's certainly an interesting experiment to do it points wise - I'm sure if you did it by event it would look different, Cycling for example you have it at 9 points which would equal 3 medals, which I would say is too high.
There are definitely places where we diverge. I do think you are giving Archery one point for the whole sport you need to include one point for Sailing. Men's diving as well I would give 1 point between the 10m Syncrho and 10m Individual.
Judo - I think Klimkait both as the recent World Champion and as the number 1 seed needs to have at least 2 points in the system. I would also give Valois-Fortier 1 point despite not being seeded.
Rowing is an interesting case, at the last World Championships we got one bronze and 2 4th place finishes, but the the team strategically chose crews to send to the last chance qualifier and performed well. I'm curious if they have something going on.
Finally - I think this weekend we will see where are Swimmers are at, the relays are most definitely all in play (i'm not quite ready to call the medley 3 points). I'm assuming you missed the 200m Breaststroke.