Quaker2001

4 hours ago, Vektor said:

 

Eh, the Olympics will be fine. It survived Munich, which was a LOT more tragic than what a potentially messy postponement would be. We shouldn't be so dramatic about this, just two years ago the "brand" was able to survive the NHL mess, and unless the NBA does something similar, this postponement will actually be less of an issue for the games than the NHL boycott. 

 

And there really isn't much to discuss about this. Everyone will most likely lose a lot more money if they host the games this year. It's obvious at this point that a postponement to next year is the best course of action for everyone involved (unless by some miracle the pandemic will be over in one or two weeks). 

The problem with the Olympics of the 60s through the 80s is that most of the issues with the Olympics were external factors rather than poor decisions on the part of the IOC.  Political protests in Mexico City.  Short-sighted security in Munich (although the IOC's response is obviously a big part of that history).  Terrible financial management in Montreal.  And obviously the boyotts in Moscow and Los Angeles.

Right now, the IOC doesn't have the best reputation.  People are starting to question the viability of the Olympics because of the burden they pose to countries that want to host them.  If the IOC were to mis-handle this one, their opponents wouldn't soon forget it.  And in the moment we're in now, a lot of people speaking out against the IOC and saying they are being insensitive to world events.  The echo chamber of social media doesn't help matters.

The "brand" you speak of is not as strong as it once was.  A postponement is a major issue to deal with and will cause all sorts of problems for a lot of people.  The NHL skipping PyeongChang was a very minor issue by comparison.  I don't see how you can argue that was a bigger deal

5 hours ago, phelps said:

 

that's what I meant when I wrote that we have to look deeper...

 

it doesn't change for the Tokyo Games, but do you really think that the Olympic brand would keep the same value if the Olympics are held in the original date and work perfect under any aspect rather than they are postponed/cancelled/experiencing something tragic?

 

no way...

 

the IOC would lose billions if something goes wrong (and having a conflict with some sports federations/nocs/sponsors means that something went wrong)...

 

p.s. moreover, do you really think that IOC takes any decision in the interest of Japan and in general of the organizing committee of the Games?

then, tell me why do we have the swimming finals late at night (Rio 2016) and/or in the morning (Beijing 2008 and Tokyo 2020)?

why in Tokyo do we have the men's Basketball Bronze Medal match scheduled after the Gold Medal match?

why do we have things like Skateboarding, Surfing, BMX Freestyle, so many events in Swimming and Gymnastics, next time round Break Dance and so on in the Olympic schedule?

 

c'mon!

as I wrote, I'm not blaming anybody, but the US being the main sports politics powerhouse and the US TV Networks' interest being more protected than any other because they are the main contributors of IOC and some international federations is a fact...

and because of that, it's one of the main factors to be taken into account when analyzing pros and cons of taking any decision...

There are still all the NOCs and sports federations out there who have a voice.  The United States doesn't necessarily get to have the loudest voice here just because they have the greatest investment, particularly in a situation like this where they have to act quick.  Everyone will be consulted because these are not normal circumstances.

I agree there needs to be a long look, but that goes beyond American interests.  When swimming finals are held for the benefit of American TV audiences, that's FINA making the decision they want to do that because it's best for them.  Same thing the ISU did with morning figure skating in PyeongChang.  Yes, these things are done for financial reasons because they have the choice to do so.  Choices are limited here.

In the end, I believe the Olympics will be postponed to next Summer.  That's because it's the best decision for everyone involved, not just those with the most amount of money on the line.

5 hours ago, Maxim Fastovsky said:

 

I feel like the longer they go without announcing postponement the worst it will get as far as damage to the olympics, and more power those anti olympics groups will get. Just enough to see the replies on twitter to each of their posts about the fire flying to tokyo, and not just by noylmpicsla, but a lot of people calling for that.

I've seen some tweets from people a lot smarter than us make a good point.. the Olympics are a collaboration between the IOC, the OCOG, plus 200+ NOC's and however many sport federations.  Takes more than a couple of meetings and some phone calls to come up with a new plan for the Olympics.  Much easier for UEFA, who could make the quick decision to postpone Euro 2020 with very little consultation from the domestic leagues who may need that window in the late spring/early summer to finish up their seasons.  Easy call for them.

Bach couldn't come out and say the Olympics are postponed without a solid plan and consultation with everyone involved.  They'll come up with something they can present to everyone.  Yes, it's a little tone deaf to talk about training, but he's right about one thing.. speculation at this time would be extremely counter-productive

10 hours ago, Olympian1010 said:

There’s no solution. It’s a lose/lose issue at this point. There’s already of shortage of hosts, and now very few countries are seeing an economic benefit in the events that they are hosting. 
 

More than just World Athletics (no longer IAAF ) will be affected by the Olympics moving. Many smaller, but vital events, will be affected as well, and it would take years for them to recover from this. 
 

The problem with moving the World Athletics Championships from Eugene is the amount of money they’ve invested into them. Why would any country to pay to host the championships, upgrade their venues, upgrade their public infrastructure, etc. if there’s no guarantee the events will happen (same goes for potential Olympic hosts).
 

FINA would lose so much money because of that though, and so would the Japanese government. I agree the Universaide might not be affected, but the field of athletes would be weaker than what we’ve seen in the past few editions. World Games wouldn’t be affected athlete wise, but they’d take a huge market hit. The World Games need protection as well, because they are just as vital to international sports as the Olympics (and that’s according to Thomas Bach). There are dozens of sports that require the World Games to stay in operation. Olympics sports have larger and more supportive fan bases, so they could survive a cancellation, but I fear many of the World Games sports couldn’t.

 

I’m not actually sure how much World Athletics, FINA, IJF, etc. need the Olympics. I think they make more physical capital off their markee events, but I could be wrong. I just think there are a lot of negatives that come with postponing the Olympics, and it’s a messy issue. I’m not sure the Olympics can survive cancellation either. There’s just no good options here really.

You have noble intentions, but you have your priorities bass ackwards.  Yes, the cascade of changes to the calendar that might come into play of the Olympics got postponed to 2021 would be difficult to deal with.  My response to that is... "So??"

Your line about "why would any country want to host" line is misguided.  This is a historically unprecedented circumstance.  It's not something every potential event host needs build into their agreements any more than they would consider a potential natural disaster that prevents them from hosting their event.

You bring up smaller events.. yea, they would suffer if the Olympics got moved to next Summer, but the IOC and the Olympics will always take priority over them.  The World Games are just as vital as the Olympics?  They're being held in Birmingham.  No disrespect to the good people of Alabama, but the list of prior host cities tells me all they need to know about their place in the world.  The IOC will not and likely need not care about what moving to next Summer might mean.

As to your last point.. really?  Do you know how many people are watching athletics and swimming during the Olympics compared to the World Championships?  Not even close.  Michael Phelps didn't become a household name from anything he did at a World Championships.  That's crazy to think those organizations don't need the Olympics.  The amount of sponsorship dollars they're generating there far outweigh what they're getting otherwise.

We agree that postponing the Olympics is messy.  There may not be another option though.  As the famous saying goes.. "The Games must go on."  And yes, the future of the Olympics would probably be irreparably damaged if they were cancelled outright.

4 hours ago, phelps said:

 

I don't have any solution, unfortunately...

 

and no, I'm not blaming the USA for defending their interests...

 

we all know that the USA are the strongest political powerhouse in the sports world and that the US TV Networks are those who pay the highest amount of money for the tv rights of almost every event...

 

therefore we have to keep in mind what's easy to adjust and what might be complicated and make all the required adjusments very difficult if not impossible...

 

it's not a question of blaming someone or not, it's only a question of analyzing every situation in depth, without stopping on the surface (which could lead to wrong conclusions or excessive semplification of any question)...

You're still making this about the United States' interests.  That's not what will motivate the IOC to make a decision.  They're going to look at their interests and that of Japan to decide the best course of action.  And the amount of money the IOC receives in rights fees from NBC does not change if the Olympics get postponed.  

Clearly there are a lot of things for the IOC to look at.  But the usual lead-up to the Olympics has been severely compromised.  If they are to hold the Olympics this summer, they're doing so without the usual level of preparation.  So what it will likely come down to.. do they want to host the Olympics this Summer (if they can) knowing that everyone is not fully ready?  Or do they postpone until next year, even with all the challenges that will come with, and give everyone a chance to prepare.  The answer to that question will have nothing to do with American interests.

USA Swimming calls for Tokyo 2020 postponement

51 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

The issue with moving the Olympics back is the eventual forced moving of other international events. This could cause a lack of interested hosts in international events. It’s very bad from a “sports as a business” point of view.

Same question.. so what's the solution?  We're dealing with an unprecedented situation in the history of organized sport.  A lack of interested hosts in international events?  What happens if that hits the Olympics?  Talk about bad business 

If the Olympics were to get postponed to 2021, let's see who gets affected?  The Euro moving back a year doesn't make a big difference as they'd still be clear of the Olympics.  I'm sure the folks in Eugene would be disappointed if the IAAF Worlds had to be cancelled, but then they'd get first dibs on 2025.  Not like the stadium is going anywhere.  The FINA Worlds are slated for Japan, so they'll gladly sacrifice that for the sake of the Olympics.  After that, you've got the World Games slated for mid-July.  The Summer Universiade in August.  After that, what else is there?

As we all know, there are a zillion logistical challenges in order to make an Olympics postponement work.  Very low on that priority list is what it does to other international events.  IAAF and FINA need the Olympics a lot more than they need their world championships.  If they have to skip a cycle to make that happen or for there to be a ripple effect on their future calendars, that seems like a small price to pay.

2 hours ago, phelps said:

 

you are forgetting where the 2021 worlds are scheduled...

 

it's not world athletics itself (which would easily change dates for their crown juwel event), the real problem is the US environment (federation, sponsors and, above all, tv networks)...

 

I mean, sponsorship agreements have already been signed, TV schedule has just been fixed (even if not released to the public yet), corporation tickets have already been sold, hotel rooms have already been reserved, the new "athletes' village", which is part of the new Oregon University Campus, is already booked by the students for the following semesters and once they enter that structure, they can't be thrown off because of the Athletics Worlds have changed schedule...

 

there are a lot of problems that can't be solved just by moving a couple of dates on a calendar...

 

and more or less it's the same for all the other events already scheduled for 2021, even those not having the US TV as such a strong stakeholder (we all know that NBC Universal is basically the owner of the IOC and consequently of many International Sports Federations by virtue of all the money they spend for the TV rights of those events, especially the Olympic Games...but not only them)...

So what is the solution then?  Since you seem to be blaming this on the United States, as if we're standing in the way of the IOC making a decision.

If the Olympics have to move to 2021, the IAAF will very happily tell Oregon they can't have the world championships in 2021 and push them off to a later date.  We are at an unprecedented time here, so if that's what needs to happen in order for the Olympics to be held, then that's a small price to pay.

2 hours ago, LDOG said:

 

I'm sure that 90% of olympic sport international federations would sacrifice whatever calendar they have planned for 2021 in order to have their olympic event contested. Too many of them have total dependence on olympic-related revenue. 

 

As for the peak of athletes, it is what it is. There have always been athletes that peaked in the middle of an olympic cycle and didn't do anything in OG. It's luck and it's the law of sport.

 

Qualifications, like Monzanator said, can always be simplified. It's not a big problem.

Agreed.  Priority number 1 is the safety of everyone who will be in Tokyo during the Olympics (and by extension, anyone they come in contact with when they return home).  Very secondary is qualifying and how this affects the calendar.  A lot of accommodations are being made and will be made for events moving around.  If having the Olympics in 2021 instead of 2020 means the IAAF has to move the World Championships, that should be the least of the considerations

Just now, bmo said:

I agree, options have to be brought up now. The final decision has to be made in May.

Yes.  Everyone screaming "just cancel it now" need to pipe down.  Let the IOC do their due diligence here, because what they can't do - and I saw someone suggest this - is to say "the Olympics are postponed to an unknown later date."  That's not an option.

14 minutes ago, bmo said:

I don’t think a correct decision can be made until at least May.

I agree, but they need to have more than 1 plan in place, even if they refuse to discuss that publicly.  All the reporting I'm reading makes it sound like they're not even bringing it up.

1 hour ago, Wumo said:

I mostly agree with your standpoint. Due to all the uncertainty of this crisis, it would probably be best to postpone it to next year, as I don't see September or October are better options. How will two or one month extra, without a worldwide vaccine available, change anything? For the health of the athletes and for the fairness of the sports, it seems, giving the current circumstances, a postponement would be a fair and reasonable decision. 

I would also like to state that I'm not in favour of having the Olympics behind closed doors. As fans and athletes should be able to celebrate these special moments together. After all, despite of not always being one of the top priorities for some of the people in IOC, The Olympics are about bringing nations, cultures and people from all over the world together in the celebration and love of sports. 

 

Edit: Just to make it clear. I still have the opinion that IOC shouldn't officially postpone it before May/mid-May. Also, Thomas Bach is often not the best to communicate his points or he is just being too honest sometimes to be in sports politics. 

I agree 100% with the last point and I'm concerned that Bach is not the right person to guide the IOC through this crisis and his decisions could do harm to the reputation of the IOC if he's not careful.

1 hour ago, Wumo said:

I guess this article fits in this thread.

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1092141/athletes-take-ioc-to-task-coronavirus

 

I'm curious to know how you on the forum think IOC should act, in your opinion, to a situation like this? 

I'm okay with them planning for a Games to occur this July/August.  But they need to be forthcoming about plans about a potential postponement.  They don't have to make that decision now, it can wait until May.  But what can't happen is we get to May, the state of the world is still not good enough to hold the Games, then my hope is that the IOC will tell us "we had hoped for this summer, but we are now planning to hold the Olympics _____." My fear is that we get to May and the IOC tells us "we cannot host the Olympics this Summer, we have no choice but to cancel"

2 weeks ago I would have said try for July.  Not so sure that's realistic at this point.

As long as they happen at some point, I'll be happy.  I just hope the IOC doesn't torpedo their own best efforts to make that happen.

1 minute ago, Vojthas said:

What about Dakar then? 2023?

They're scheduled for late October/early November.  Obviously it would be squeezing a lot onto the calendar with the Olympics, Paralympics, and Youth Olympics all in 1 year.  But hopefully it wouldn't need to be pushed back

Just now, Olympian1010 said:

Yep, 2022 is looking quite sexy at the moment. I still think we should wait until May, but this is easily the second best option.

Easier said than done.  There are a ton of logistical hurdles they'll have to overcome to make that happen and my fear is that they're putting all of their eggs into one basket trying to make this summer work where it may be out of their control.

I'll hold out hope until the day the IOC makes the announcement.  I just hope should it come to the point that they can't hold the Olympics that they've at least attempted to come up with a backup plan

3 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

 

Oh yeah, right when the most awesome sports are in full swing. Fantastic.

Qatar: "We promise we can build air-conditioned stadiums and still hold the World Cup in June and July"

Also Qatar: "Nah, just kidding, that was stupid.. thanks FIFA for awarding us the World Cup, but how's November and December for you?"

4 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

I would totally be okay with 2022. That’d be an epic year. 2 Olympic Games, Commonwealth Games, and Asian Games. Plus, I’ve never lived in a time where both Olympics have taken place in a single year, so that’d be really special for me. I also think it gives the world ample time to cover recover from corona, and for the global economy to pick back up. For a business standpoint, this would be a great decision.

Don't forget the World Cup.  How convenient it would be for the IOC that's not being held in its usual window during the summer and instead potentially leaves those months wide open for the Olympics to be held

4 hours ago, Agger said:

I must say that the more I think about it, I hope the Olympics will be postponed. Even if we beat the corona within the next few months, I would think that it would have major impact on the quality when more and more athletes are forced to improvise with lockdowns in force.

Would the organizers and the IOC rather have a compromised Olympics this summer or have to scramble and reset to hold it in 2022?  Tough to figure what decision they would make given all the logistical hurdles they would have to deal with

5 hours ago, Vic Liu said:

 

I hope IOC decide it later in May. If decision made by current situation, it must be postponed. But what if it’s contained in May, it’s still possible. 

I've been saying that the right move is to wait until May to make that decision.  But there needs to be a backup plan and it seems like the IOC and the organizers aren't even considering that.

NBA, NHL, and MLB all officially shut down in the United States

College basketball tournaments are being cancelled one by one very quickly.  The NCAA Tournament may not be far behind

1 hour ago, NearPup said:

The NBA is on hold indefinitely.

More from the league.  The tipping point was a player testing positive for COVID-19...

Coronavirus pandemic causes NBA to suspend season after player tests positive

Coronavirus causes Ivy League to cancel conference tournament; Yale earns automatic NCAA Tournament bid

3 hours ago, thiago_simoes said:

 

2% mortality rate beats 0%. I'd be hysterical if I had to go to an event and risk contracting a virus that could kill me instead of staying home and not risking anything.

And at the same time, risk people contracting the virus and spreading it all over the world.  The risk of holding the Olympics isn't just that people attending will get sick, but that they'll be a danger to others.

Cancelling sporting events is being overly cautious to be sure, but if doing that for a few weeks might help contain the spread of the virus, that's a small price to pay to potentially save people's lives.