dodge

Lightweight women’s final Lightweight men’s final (rep) Men’s quad (Rep)

Women’s single sculls final Slovenia is eligible for the re-allocated host quota. I don’t know if they can get both men’s and women’s here

Men’s four final ( heat wins) (rep 1) (rep 2)

Men’s double sculls final

Women’s double sculls final (heat winners) (rep finish)

Men’s pairs final This could be a great final

Men’s Single sculls semi finalists (listed in QF result order) Slovenia, Hungary and Monaco can get the re-allocated host country spot

Tremendous drama with and securing Olympic tickets with buzzer beaters No rooting interesting for me, but the emotion is great to see

Yeah, always wary about reading too much into prelim races as some crews can knock it off quickly enough if there’s little to be gained from a sprint.

no real shocks in the heats and a long way to go there. In the prelim races (ie just a warm up with the same crews racing a straight final), the following would be the top 2 to qualify Women’s pair (but within a second) Women’s four Women’s quad ( were close) Women’s eight ( not far off) Men’s eight

They’ll likely only have a stream for the final day

“Decent swim”

Sharlene Mawdsley in 400m. Runs 50.72 in Poland today results

Brandon McNulty won the men’s ITT and guaranteed himself a spot on the team

Men’s pair not set yet maybe? The crews for World Cup II have been announced. The world bronze team from last year has been split and we’ve entered two pairs Ross Corrigan is with John Kearney Nathan Timoney is with Jack Dorney 2 squads for the double sculls too Doyle & Lynch stay together Sheehen & Colsh together in a double for the first time (I think) The lightweight doubles are back too

will qualify a few women at 800m but it’s worth noting that Phoebe Gill ran 1:57.86 in the Irish Milers meeting in Belfast She just turned 17 a few weeks ago!

Is it just one quota available in the k1-1000m?

The only exception to this is a medical exemption, but you’re correct in general

Rowing entries M1 - Pazzaia W1 - Puspure W4 - Magner Long Hegarty Lambe so the pairs and doubles are set too

I've been wondering about him all year tbh. His performances at the 2024 World Champs were never really explained. A gold medal favourite missing a games is always sad, particularly for a country that isn't packed with medal chances. Ireland may be beneficiaries

A major boost to Wiffen's medal chances too https://swimswam.com/defending-400-freestyle-olympic-champion-ahmed-hafnaoui-will-miss-paris-olympics/

Good work, but I think many countries will use the mixed to bring extra quotas as like you said, the “you must use individual quotas to count” in the gendered races doesn’t apply (and they can’t bring subs specifically for the mixed) For Ireland I’m counting our women’s as 4 new quotas and mixed as 2 men and 2 women (Adeleke is already qualified). I expect Mawdsley will qualify in the women’s too so it might end up being 2 individuals, 5 women relay runners, 2 men relay runners

That’s just because the those countries are more capable of competing in sevens (due to the nature of the sport). The USA (add Kenya, Canada and more) have zero chance of competing in 15s against New Zealand, France, Ireland etc but they can all beat them in sevens. Of course the Olympics has sharpened those countries too and France and Ireland in particular have taken sevens more seriously as a direct result of the Olympics

Medal chances IMO (from unlikely to locks) Athletics Adeleke Mageean Healy (I think the change of coach will unleash her this year) mixed 4x400m womens 4x400m Swimming Wiffen (x2) Gymnastics Rhys Rugby both teams Golf McIlroy, Lowry, Maguire Cycling Healy Gillespie Equestrian Both teams 2 of the eventing team all the showjumping team Boxing all of them Rowing LW double womens pair womens double mens double mens pair Sailing 49er crew Taekwondo Woolley Some (the male boxers, sailors) need more luck than others but that’s over 25 events where it’s conceivable that Ireland could win a medal. One in each of athletics, swimming and gymnastics would be an absolutely incredible return for us

FWIW if you add Winter Olympics, you’ll see most of those countries shoot way over us in medals… I think we can only compare ourselves to European nations of a similar size. Anyway, we definitely have more medal chances than ever before, and all we can do is hope more of them convert/get lucky/have the performance of their lives this summer.