BMOlympics

But he trained on slopes as a skier in a country with an existing (albeit limited) slalom culture. The Netherlands are litteraly known as The Low Countries in many languages, their highest summit is edging just over an impressive 300m, how do you expect them to even start having grass tracks to train their future snow skiers ?
 
They don't have snow all year but they begin the sport on snow. As far as I know there has never been any French Olympian in CC/biathlon who didn't learn his craft in the Alps/Jura/Vosges. 

Yeah that's a comment I can get behind, there is some potential there. Especially considering the British have found a way to be very competitive in multiple ice disciplines

I can picture the Dutch to pick up more interest bobsleigh and skeleton, as you're more into ice rather than snow.
Winterberg as a training ground wouldn't be far away.

You make it seem so easy. Yet, there is not a single country in the world that's structurally successful at skiing, snowboarding, ski jumping etc. without close access to mountains and/or snow. You'd almost think there's more to it than you're suggesting. There is no ski, snowboard or skeeler culture here, which means there are no resources and coaches, which means there is no hope of structural succes unless we spend tens of millions. And why would we, if we can also spend that money in shorttrack and speed skating with guaranteed 15+ medals every time?

And how do you envision there to be any skiing or snowboarding prospects if there is not a single place for them to start practicing from a young age in the first place? Like seriously, what exactly do you suggest, just start sending a bunch of Dutch kids to the Alps in hopes that they become the next winter sports prodigy?
 
Because we are already doing the things you said with a couple of snowboarding athletes that train with other international athletes in the Alps, but the problem is that they 'wasted' the most important years of their development by simply not being surrounded by snow/mountains and being able to train whenever they want, which is a disadvantage that no amount of money can make up for.

And, a kid with a talent for sports is far more likely to chose a sport we are already succesful in. Because the infrastructure is there and the media coverage is there, so he/she will have been exposed to that sport. A kid is far more likely to chose Judo, where we have (had) considerable success, with a local club almost everywhere than Wrestling, where we have no history whatsoever.

And how do you envision there to be any skiing or snowboarding prospects if there is not a single place for them to start practicing from a young age in the first place? Like seriously, what exactly do you suggest, just start sending a bunch of Dutch kids to the Alps in hopes that they become the next winter sports prodigy?
 
Because we are already doing the things you said with a couple of snowboarding athletes that train with other international athletes in the Alps, but the problem is that they 'wasted' the most important years of their development by simply not being surrounded by snow/mountains and being able to train whenever they want, which is a disadvantage that no amount of money can make up for.

No worries Copra, but accusing the Netherlands or Norway of using performance enhancers or whatever like the first post I quoted is simply not a realistic accusation to make. It's still a historic performance from Italy, and I feel for you in the sense that not 1 or 2 of those bronze medals were a silver instead. The thing is, Italy has all the potential to get 10+ golds in the future if they have 1 or 2 talented alpine skiiers for example, I'm convinced that you will experience a top 3 performance for Italy once in your lifetime 

Lol what a nonsense argument to make. That's never what I claimed, and in the alltime medal standings Italy is even lower than the Netherlands so if you're trying to argue Italy is a powerhouse, then that's an invalid argument to make.
 
Besides, what else would you expect The Netherlands to do? There is no snow and there are no mountains which structurally eliminates 70% of medal options with a very rare exception every few games, and there's simply no figure skating or ice hockey culture over here which eliminates another 10% of options. We're simply maximising all our medal possibilities, resulting in consistent performances the last few Olympic cycles. 
 

Lol what a nonsense argument to make. That's never what I claimed, and in the alltime medal standings Italy is even lower than the Netherlands so if you're trying to argue Italy is a powerhouse, then that's an invalid argument to make.
 
Besides, what else would you expect The Netherlands to do? There is no snow and there are no mountains which structurally eliminates 70% of medal options with a very rare exception every few games, and there's simply no figure skating or ice hockey culture over here which eliminates another 10% of options. We're simply maximising all our medal possibilities, resulting in consistent performances the last few Olympic cycles. 
 

Your comments are nothing other than ridiculous. Sure, some individual medals can be considered 'lucky', but overall this is a fully deserved result. It's the consequence of succesful investments and great innovations. That's the difference between The Netherlands and Italy in my opinion, and what makes the Netherlands capable of scoring more golds than silvers or bronzes.

3 individual medals this tournament so far, 3 gold medals for 

(laat) maar Jutta!! 

Voelt toch wel wrang dat het NLse shorttrack team wel de OR heeft gepakt, maar dan in de B finale.. Hopelijk gaat het donderdag wel helemaal goed!
 

Jammer  En dan nog met 1 seconde te kort komen voor Brons.

De eerste medailles zijn verdeeld, waardoor Nederland de gedeelde eerste plaats op de medaillespiegel kwijtraakt
 
Lang hoeft het niet te duren, want vandaag om 16:00 start de 3.000 meter voor vrouwen bij het langebaanschaatsen, en daarbij maakt Nederland een dikke kans op een of meerdere medailles. Joy Beune is de regerend wereldkampioen en heeft dit seizoen de snelste tijd gereden en lijkt vanuit de Nederlandse deelnemers de grootste kans te maken op goud. Marijke Groenewoud won daarentegen het OKT in een rechtstreeks duel met Joy Beune in haar beste tijd van het seizoen, en is daarmee ook na Joy Beune de een na snelste schaatster op de 3.000m dit seizoen. Merel Conijn werd het afgelopen WK derde achter Beune en Sablikova, dus ook zij is een absolute kanshebber voor een medaille.
 
De concurrentie is echter niet mals, en vooral Ragne Wiklund verkeert in de vorm van haar leven. Het laatste WB-weekend in Inzell versloeg ze iedereen en pakte zelfs het baanrecord van Beune af. Daarnaast zijn de Canadezen Maltais en Weidemann echte medaillekandidaten met meerdere medailles tijdens het WB-seizoen. 
 
Al met al kan het alle kanten op gaan vanmiddag. Beune is geloot in rit 9 en zal daarom de benchmark moeten zetten, voordat Groenewoud en Wiklund het in rit 10 tegen elkaar gaan opnemen en dus een richtpunt zullen hebben qua tijd. Voor Groenewoud vind ik dit een gunstige loting, aangezien zij vooral goed lijkt te presteren als ze een directe race heeft tegen een sterke tegenstander. 
 
Mijn voorspelling vandaag:
GOUD - Ragne Wiklund
ZILVER - Joy Beune
BRONS - Marijke Groenewoud

Hoop echt dat ze hoog komen te staan (zal waarschijnlijk niet, maar a man can dream), en idd hopen dat er wat underdogs eruit springen, zou wel fantastisch zijn

Welkom allemaal bij het TeamNL Winterhuis voor Milaan 2026!

De Olympische Winterspelen zijn zojuist officieel geopend, en het belooft weer een vlammende editie te worden! In deze megathread is het mogelijk om alle (Nederlandse) prestaties te bespreken met elkaar, als landgenoten onderling. Uiteraard kan niemand precies voorspellen wat deze editie in petto heeft, maar één ding is zeker: Er zal historie geschreven worden. 
 
Deze editie doen er maarliefst 39 Nederlandse sporters mee, verdeeld over 6 verschillende sporten. Uiteraard zullen we voor mogelijk Nederlands succes vooral naar de schaatsbaan en shorttrackbaan moeten kijken, maar ook op de snowboardpiste, bobsleebaan, skeletonbaan en de kunstschaatshal kunnen we onze landgenoten in actie zien komen. Net als in Parijs zullen we onze wekker niet extreem vroeg hoeven te zetten of laat op hoeven te blijven om alle actie live mee te maken, dus geniet daar vooral extra van zolang het kan,!
 
Ik hoop dat we de komende tijd goede discussies kunnen voeren, en later we er in het Totallympics TeamNL Winterhuis er vooral een feestje van maken de komende tijd!

 

Dutch Medal Prospects 
 
Speed skating
Recently, it was reported that the Dutch soeed skaters along with the Canadian and Italian skaters will wear a suit that has been developed to gain an advantage of up to 5-8% compared to previously used suits. I'm usually skeptical, but some skaters who wore the prototype of this suit to the Olympic Qualifiers managed to cause a big surprise with Van de Bunt qualifying twice out of nowhere, and Schulting, Snel and Diniz also wear this suit and surprisingly qualified. It's simply impossible to expect the same success as 2022, but of course The Netherlands should get a good amount of medals here.
 
500m (M) - A medal is very much possible, but not gold. De Boo would be the biggest medal contender, although he was out of form in the most recent world cup in Inzell. 
1000m (M) - Definitely an okay distance for us, but obviously Stolz would be the clear favourite for gold. One medal should be doable, on a good day even two, but winning no medal would not be too surprising either.
1500m (M) - Not a great distance for us. Nuis and Wennemars are capable of medalling on a good day, but again gold is very unlikely.
5000m (M) - Perhaps our worst distance, but Van de Bunt has been a big surprise in the qualigiers so he's at least a wild card. Chances are very slim however.
10000m (M) - Similar to the 5000m, Van de Bunt is a wild card but with the progression of many others in this discipline I don't see a medal here.
Mass Start (M) - Bergsma has had a couple of good results here, but again Van de Bunt is a wildcard and I'm unsure what the strategy will be. A medal is possible, gold is very difficult.
Team Pursuit (M) - The team barely trained together. With a bit of luck they could scrape bronze, but not too likely.
500m (W) - This should be a win for Kok, with another possible medal for Leerdam.
1000m (W) - Same as the 500m, except Leerdam and Kok switched around. I don't expect Schulting to be in the mix.
1500m (W) - Kok, Groenewoud and Rijpma-De Jong all could medal here, but the competition is tough. 1 or 2 medals, maybe even gold, are on the table, but no medals wouldn't be completely surprising either.
3000m (W) - This is the only distance Beune will skate unfortunately, but together with Groenewoud I see a good chance of a (gold) medal. Wiklund is in the form of her life however, so she is easily the favourite.
5000m (W) - I don't really know what to expect from this distance, Conijn and Kerkhoff are quite inconsistent. A gold medal is not really possible I believe, maybe a bronze might be possible.
Mass Start (W) - With Groenewoud, we have a huge shot at a medal, if not gold here. 
Team Pursuit (W) - I think it's a battle for gold with Canada, but silver should be the minimum.
 
2022 Olympic Games: 6 Gold, 3 Silver, 2 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 3 Gold, 5 Silver, 4 Bronze
 
Shorttrack
As a massive shorttrack fan (I truly believe it's the best sport to watch in the world), I feel like on paper we could medal in nearly every event, but short track isn't performed on paper but on ice and that makes it very unpredictable. Compared to the last Winter Games, we have medal chances for both Men's and Women's distances.
 
500m (M) - This is probably the distance with the least chance of a medal. J. Van 't Wout lacks the pure pace, although he is one of the few men who are capable of overtaking on these high speeds. Teun Beur could have an outside shot, but only if he manages to start first in the quarters / semis which is a big ask.
1000m (M) - I'd say this is the best distance of J. Van 't Wout. Challenging for a gold medal is difficult, but a medal should be doable. 
1500m (M) - Again, a medal should be possible but gold is less likely than in the 1000m. J. Van 't Wout is the only likely skater to win a medal though.
Relay (M) - A medal is likely, but other countries have more depth. The fourth man is significantly worse than the others, whether it's De Laat or Emons. However, Van 't Wout as a finisher means I still believe a medal is possible, if not likely.
500m (W) - This is the only realistic distance with 2 potential medals. Xandra Velzeboer is the favourite to win, and Selma Poutsma is the fastest starter in the world. Michelle Velzeboer could als make the final. All in all, I could see 2 medals here.
1000m (W) - X. Velzeboer is quite comfortable at this distance, but I don't think she's the favourite. A medal is not realistic, but it's a 50/50 I'd say. I don't believe other women would have a big shot here.
1500m (W) - Interestingly, Suzanne Schulting will take part in the 1500m. Even though she hasn't performed in any international competitions, she is the biggest shot at a medal in my opinion. Still, I don't see a realistic chance of a medal here.
Relay (W) - This is a strong line-up and I expect they will medal, with gold being realistic but definitely not easy.
Mixed relay - Strong medal contenders, if not favourites along with Canada. 

2022 Olympic Games: 2 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 2 Gold, 2 Silver, 2 Bronze
 
Skeleton
SIngle (W) - Last year Bos may have been the favourite, but this year the results have been lacklustre. There is definitely a chance of a medal here, maybe even gold, but it's not very likely.
 
2022 Olympic Games: 1 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Snowboarding
Cross (M) - Not a chance of medalling
Slopestyle (W) - Not a chance of medalling
Big AIr (W) - Not a chance of medalling
Parallel (W) - Small chance of medalling here, but not very likely
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Bobsleigh
2-Man - Not a chance of medalling
4-Man - Not a chance of medalling
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Figure Skating
Pairs - Not a chance of medalling
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Final tally
2022 Olympic Games: 8 Gold, 5 Silver, 4 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 5 Gold, 7 Silver, 6 Bronze

Dutch Medal Prospects 
 
Speed skating
Recently, it was reported that the Dutch soeed skaters along with the Canadian and Italian skaters will wear a suit that has been developed to gain an advantage of up to 5-8% compared to previously used suits. I'm usually skeptical, but some skaters who wore the prototype of this suit to the Olympic Qualifiers managed to cause a big surprise with Van de Bunt qualifying twice out of nowhere, and Schulting, Snel and Diniz also wear this suit and surprisingly qualified. It's simply impossible to expect the same success as 2022, but of course The Netherlands should get a good amount of medals here.
 
500m (M) - A medal is very much possible, but not gold. De Boo would be the biggest medal contender, although he was out of form in the most recent world cup in Inzell. 
1000m (M) - Definitely an okay distance for us, but obviously Stolz would be the clear favourite for gold. One medal should be doable, on a good day even two, but winning no medal would not be too surprising either.
1500m (M) - Not a great distance for us. Nuis and Wennemars are capable of medalling on a good day, but again gold is very unlikely.
5000m (M) - Perhaps our worst distance, but Van de Bunt has been a big surprise in the qualigiers so he's at least a wild card. Chances are very slim however.
10000m (M) - Similar to the 5000m, Van de Bunt is a wild card but with the progression of many others in this discipline I don't see a medal here.
Mass Start (M) - Bergsma has had a couple of good results here, but again Van de Bunt is a wildcard and I'm unsure what the strategy will be. A medal is possible, gold is very difficult.
Team Pursuit (M) - The team barely trained together. With a bit of luck they could scrape bronze, but not too likely.
500m (W) - This should be a win for Kok, with another possible medal for Leerdam.
1000m (W) - Same as the 500m, except Leerdam and Kok switched around. I don't expect Schulting to be in the mix.
1500m (W) - Kok, Groenewoud and Rijpma-De Jong all could medal here, but the competition is tough. 1 or 2 medals, maybe even gold, are on the table, but no medals wouldn't be completely surprising either.
3000m (W) - This is the only distance Beune will skate unfortunately, but together with Groenewoud I see a good chance of a (gold) medal. Wiklund is in the form of her life however, so she is easily the favourite.
5000m (W) - I don't really know what to expect from this distance, Conijn and Kerkhoff are quite inconsistent. A gold medal is not really possible I believe, maybe a bronze might be possible.
Mass Start (W) - With Groenewoud, we have a huge shot at a medal, if not gold here. 
Team Pursuit (W) - I think it's a battle for gold with Canada, but silver should be the minimum.
 
2022 Olympic Games: 6 Gold, 3 Silver, 2 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 3 Gold, 5 Silver, 4 Bronze
 
Shorttrack
As a massive shorttrack fan (I truly believe it's the best sport to watch in the world), I feel like on paper we could medal in nearly every event, but short track isn't performed on paper but on ice and that makes it very unpredictable. Compared to the last Winter Games, we have medal chances for both Men's and Women's distances.
 
500m (M) - This is probably the distance with the least chance of a medal. J. Van 't Wout lacks the pure pace, although he is one of the few men who are capable of overtaking on these high speeds. Teun Beur could have an outside shot, but only if he manages to start first in the quarters / semis which is a big ask.
1000m (M) - I'd say this is the best distance of J. Van 't Wout. Challenging for a gold medal is difficult, but a medal should be doable. 
1500m (M) - Again, a medal should be possible but gold is less likely than in the 1000m. J. Van 't Wout is the only likely skater to win a medal though.
Relay (M) - A medal is likely, but other countries have more depth. The fourth man is significantly worse than the others, whether it's De Laat or Emons. However, Van 't Wout as a finisher means I still believe a medal is possible, if not likely.
500m (W) - This is the only realistic distance with 2 potential medals. Xandra Velzeboer is the favourite to win, and Selma Poutsma is the fastest starter in the world. Michelle Velzeboer could als make the final. All in all, I could see 2 medals here.
1000m (W) - X. Velzeboer is quite comfortable at this distance, but I don't think she's the favourite. A medal is not realistic, but it's a 50/50 I'd say. I don't believe other women would have a big shot here.
1500m (W) - Interestingly, Suzanne Schulting will take part in the 1500m. Even though she hasn't performed in any international competitions, she is the biggest shot at a medal in my opinion. Still, I don't see a realistic chance of a medal here.
Relay (W) - This is a strong line-up and I expect they will medal, with gold being realistic but definitely not easy.
Mixed relay - Strong medal contenders, if not favourites along with Canada. 

2022 Olympic Games: 2 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 2 Gold, 2 Silver, 2 Bronze
 
Skeleton
SIngle (W) - Last year Bos may have been the favourite, but this year the results have been lacklustre. There is definitely a chance of a medal here, maybe even gold, but it's not very likely.
 
2022 Olympic Games: 1 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Snowboarding
Cross (M) - Not a chance of medalling
Slopestyle (W) - Not a chance of medalling
Big AIr (W) - Not a chance of medalling
Parallel (W) - Small chance of medalling here, but not very likely
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Bobsleigh
2-Man - Not a chance of medalling
4-Man - Not a chance of medalling
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Figure Skating
Pairs - Not a chance of medalling
 
2022 Olympic Games: No medal
2026 Olympic Games prediction: No medal
 
Final tally
2022 Olympic Games: 8 Gold, 5 Silver, 4 Bronze
2026 Olympic Games prediction: 5 Gold, 7 Silver, 6 Bronze

Of course, this is from the main Dutch broadcasting company:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2599838-schaatsers-in-milaan-op-medaillejacht-in-revolutionaire-hybride-outfit

Thanks for sharing it — I made the site and only found this great forum because of your post.

I’ll keep updating the predictions from bookmaker odds (not only AI) until the Games. It’s not 100% perfect, but I think it gives a good overall view per NOC.

I also added an interactive calendar where you can filter by country to see the best medal chances per day for your NOC: https://winter-olympics-2026.datasportiq.com/calendar

I'm French 🇫🇷 , and I hope we can beat our winter record by winning 6 gold medals. We need to stay dominant in biathlon as always, and ski mountaineering is a nice addition for us we're favorites in the women's and mixed events.

Ik kom net terug uit Parijs. Wat een fantastische ervaring om bij de Spelen te zijn! En dan ook nog zulke succesvolle voor de Nederlanders.
 
Ik had op het internationale deel van het forum ook al wat momenten gepost, maar ik ben nog wel weken aan het nagenieten, dus ook hier nog even wat observaties.
 
Place Trocadero: eerste avond waren alle 6000 plekken al vol en hebben we een uurtje buiten gewacht. Toen we uiteindelijk binnenkwamen begon net de huldiging van alle BMX medailles, incl. Manon Veenstra en de Franse podium sweep. Prachtig begin van ons bezoek aan Parijs. Daarna op het grote scherm Sifan Hassan haar eerste brons zien winnen en de 3x3 basketballers zien stunten met goud. Een onvergetelijke ervaring om met een paar plukjes oranje toegeklapt te worden door duizenden Fransen. De dag erna nog even teruggegaan voordat we naar Beach Volleybal aan de overkant van de Seine gingen en puur toevallig de huldiging van Leon Marchand voor duizenden uitzinnige Fransen meegepikt. Beach volleybal: helaas geen Nederlanders in de twee kwartfinales die we zagen, maar dat betekende alleen maar meer tijd om naar de magische zonsondergang achter de Eiffel toren te kijken. Hockey: overtuigende overwinning van de hockeydames op Argentinië gezien. Hele andere ervaring dan bij beach volleybal, want al vanaf de trein naar Colombes was het een grote oranjestoet. Savonds ook nog bij België - China geweest, waar ook nog vooral oranje fans in het publiek zaten. Ons gejuich voor België was helaas tevergeefs. Waterpolo: we besloten spontaan tickets te kopen voor de waterpolo halve finale via het resale platform. Ondanks dat we de shootout verloren was dat volledig de moeite waard. Dit was misschien wel de allermooiste ervaring van de Spelen. Het publiek was een mooie mengelmoes van Nederlands en Spaans en nonstop enthousiast en de wedstrijd had niet  spannender kunnen zijn. Atletiek: een prachtige ambiance in een vol Stade de France, zelfs voor een ochtendsessie. Leuk ook om families van atletes te spotten, vlakbij ons zaten de families Oosterwegel en Dokter naar de zevenkamp te kijken. Ook oudatlete Nadine Broersen kwamen we nog tegen. TeamNL huis: gemengde gevoelens over de twee dagen dat ik in het TeamNL huis was. Het was heel leuk om gezamenlijk met andere oranje fans de beiden hockeyfinales, de 400m horden en de sprintfinale van Lavreysen en Hoogland te kijken. Maar de opzet van het huis was verder vooral bier, friet en feesten. Ik kwam naar Parijs voor de sport en niet voor middelmatige Nederlandse artiesten... Maar toch ook nog een plekje op de eerste rij voor de huldigingen bemachtigd en Marit Bouwmeester en Sharon Rouwendaal een high five gegeven. Parijs in het algemeen: ik heb Parijs nog nooit zo opgeruimd en veilig gezien. Alle straatverkopers waren weg, vrijwel geen afval op straat, de metros waren schoner dan ooit. De sfeer onder alle fans was geweldig, ik heb ook leuke gesprekken gehad met Franse en andere Nederlandse fans over wat zij allemaal hadden bezocht. Ook heel leuk om in de stad sporters te spotten, zoals de delegatie van Nauru die lekker de Notre Dame aan het bezichtigen was of Tes Schouten en ik vermoed ook de rest van Fabers trainingsgroep die op een stoeprandje op hun lift zaten te wachten.  
Al met al was het een onvergetelijke week. En wat een hoop mooie momenten voor Nederland ook nog. Met als absolute kersen op de taart marathongoud voor Hassan en Harrie's hattrick.

a) I think there are bigger issues than 4 medal events for basketball. Like 48 medal events for swimming just to name one
 
b) I agree, but that's more because I'd be a fan of adding Futsal and beach football
 
c) I mean that's just a nonsensical argument which I won't even bother to get into

Waterpolo, Beachvolleybal (v), 3x3 Basketbal, Discuswerpen, Zevenkamp. Bol op de 400 meter horden is wel iets meer dan een buitenkansje.

Een hoop medaillekansen inderdaad. Zelfs de handbaldames zie ik wel als een buitenkansje, zolang ze Frankrijk en Noorwegen weten te ontwijken.
 
Maar om nog 7 goud te halen wordt echt nog wel een opgave denk ik. Dat laat nog maar eens zien wat een uitzonderlijk team dat was in Sydney met Pieter van den Hoogenband, Inge de Bruijn, Anky van Grinsven en Leontien van Moorsel.
 
De 12 keer goud evenaren zou ik al prachtig vinden. Liefst met driemaal Harrie Lavreysen, Marit Bouwmeester, Sharon van Rouwendaal en de hockeydames.