[PREDICTION CONTESTS] Tokyo 2020 Olympic Bet Contest Discussion Thread

[dcro 10,210]

General

At least one athlete will test positive for cannabis.

Malaysia will win a gold medal.

 

Archery

Nicholas d'Amour (ISV) will place inside the Top 32 of the men's seeding round.

 

Equestrian

Australia will finish inside the Top 8 in all three team events.

Henri Ruoste (FIN) will qualify for the individual dressage final.

At least two athletes will take an unplanned bath on the cross-country course (i.e. a rider fall at water obstacle).

At least 10 athletes will enter the medal jump-off in the individual jumping.

An Asian nation will win a medal.

Syria will finish ahead of Jordan in the individual jumping.

 

Football

Zambia will receive at least one red card in their opening match.

 

Sailing

Papua New Guinea will finish last in both Men's Laser and Women's Laser Radial classes.

 

Modern pentathlon

At least one athlete (male or female) will win less than 8 matches in the preliminary fencing round.

 

Gymnastics - Artistic

At least three athletes will fall off the beam during the apparatus final.

 

Table tennis

At least one of the following athletes will score a first round victory - Ibrahima Diaw (SEN), Yoshua Shing (VAN), Dodji Fanny (TOG), Hend Zaza (SYR). Batmönkhiin Bolor-Erdene (MGL), Sarah de Nutte (LUX).

Australia will lose both opening team matches (men and women) 3:0.

 

Golf

Rory Sabbatini (SVK) will finish ahead of Ondrej Lieser (CZE).

 

Shooting

At least one nation will win more than one medal in a single mixed team event.

 

Softball

Italy will not finish 6th.

[maestro 653]

Athletics

At least one relay team will be disqualified in a final.

 

There will be three or more world records set in track events only (men's and women's individual events and all relays counting).

 

Women's triple jump podium will not feature any european athlete.

 

The gold medalist in men's triple jump will jump 18.00m or more in the final.

 

There will be more than one athlete in men's pole vault to jump 6.00m or more.

 

In decathlon and heptathlon combined, there will be 10 or more national records set (only counting records for total score, not in specific events).

 

Fencing

In at least one individual event, men's or women's, the gold medal will be won by the no1 seeded fencer.

 

At least one country will win more than one gold medal in the team events.

 

In at least one individual event, men's or women's, two or more fencers from the same country will win a medal.  

 

At least one individual gold medal final, men's or women's will be decided in the overtime/extra minute.

 

 

[Monzanator 4,503]

Bet Contest questions answered YES already:

 

Medal for (in taekwondo in case someone missed it)

At least one nation wins their first medal ever (we have & )

 

Both tennis questions also 'YES'

 

Gold medal winner in singles event will be a non-GS winner (Bencic or Vondrousova in women's)

 

One player will win two medals in singles & doubles/mixed (Bencic, could be joined by either Djokovic or Khachanov or both)

[Dunadan 1,103]

16 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

Bet Contest questions answered YES already:

 

Medal for (in taekwondo in case someone missed it)

At least one nation wins their first medal ever (we have & )

 

Both tennis questions also 'YES'

 

Gold medal winner in singles event will be a non-GS winner (Bencic or Vondrousova in women's)

 

One player will win two medals in singles & doubles/mixed (Bencic, could be joined by either Djokovic or Khachanov or both)

And Japan already won 10 golds and 7 in judo, Krasniqi was the medalist from the Jeux de la Francophonie etc.

There is a lot more, maybe we can use the other thread to keep track of them

[Monzanator 4,503]

Admittedly I lost track of the golds in judo but yeah, it was always more than 10. That was one of the easier 'YES' bets.

 

Medallists from 2004 Athens games should also be an easy 'YES' even if someone only counted for Allyson Felix as the most obvious name. Zagunis, Cassara in team fencing and the immortal Formiga in women's football still viable options to choose from

[Dunadan 1,103]

just keeping track of answers

 

Spoiler

General (25)

1 - The number of Asian NOCs that win a medal will be higher than the number of Pan American NOCs that win a medal. YES

2 - A medalist from the 2017 Jeux de la Francophonie will win a medal. YES    (D. Krasniqi)

3 - At least one individual medallist from Athens 2004 will win an individual medal. YES  (Allyson Felix)
 

4 - Japan will win at least 3 medals in team sports. YES (Softball, Baseball, Basketball)

 

5 - Spain will win more than 22 medals (their record). NO

 

6 - The youngest medallist will be younger than 14. YES   (skateboarding)

 

7 - United States will win at least 10 medals in team sports. NO

 

8 - Will North Macedonia get a medal at this edition of Olympics. YES   (taekwondo)

 

9 - India will win 7 or more total medals, surpassing their highest ever number for a single edition. YES

 

10 - Philippines or Malaysia will win their first olympic gold medal. YES 

 

11 - Sweden will win more gold medals than Norway. NO

 

12 - The number of gold medals won by Brazil will be equal or lower than the number of gold medals won by all other south american nations added up. NO 

 

13 - Host nation Japan wins at least 10 gold medals. YES 

 

14 - At least one athlete will test positive for cannabis. NO

 

15 - Malaysia will win a gold medal. NO

 

16 - At least one nation will win its first ever olympic medal. YES  (San Marino, etc.)

 

17 - No nordic nation (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) will win more than 10 medals. NO - Denmark

 

18 - Bahrain will maximum win one medal. YES

 

19 - Canada will win at least 23 medals. YES

 

20 - Jamaica's female athletes will stand/win at least 3/4 of Jamaica's medals overall. YES (7/9)

 

21 - Netherlands will win at least 24 medals. YES

 

22 - Italy will be ranked higher in the overall medal table in Tokyo than their 9th place in Rio 2016. NO

 

23 - ROC, France and Germany will end up higher in the overall medal table than Great Britain. NO

 

24 - At least one nation will win 6 medals, but none of gold. YES  (kaz, aze)

 

25 - At least one nation from every continent (the five olympic continents) will be represented in the top 20 in the medal table. YES

 

 

Aquatics - Diving (2)

26 - Canada will win at least three medals overall. NO
 

27 - Great Britain will win silver medals in both men's synchronized events. NO , 1 gold

 

Aquatics - Swimming (10)

28 - United States will win a medal in every relay event NO  - missed in men's 4x200
 

29 - In at least two events in swimming there will be a tie for a medal position. NO

 

30 - Japan will end above China in the swimming medal table. NO

 

31 - Caeleb Dressel will set at least one world record. YES -100m butterfly 

 

32 - Italy will win at least one gold medal. NO

 

33 - Katinka Hosszu will not win a medal. YES

 

34 - Ariarne Titimus will win gold in women's 200m and 400m freestyle  YES 

 

35 - Every continent (Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania, North and South America) will be represented in the swimming medal table. YES 

 

36 - Kliment Kolesnikov, Evgeny Rylov and Kristof Milak will combined win at least 6 individual medals. YES (6)

 

37 - At least two Rio 2016-medallists from the marathon swimming events will win a medal in Tokyo. NO

 

Aquatics - Synchronized Swimming (1)

38 - China will win silver medals in both duet and team event. YES
 

 

Aquatics - Water Polo (2)

39 - Women's tournament - United States will win all their matches with a goal difference of a least four goals in each match. NO  , lost to HUN

 

40 - Men's tournament - At least two of the three nations that won a medal in Rio 2016 will again be on the podum (not necessarily in the same place). NO

 

Archery (2)

41 - There will be at least one event with a podium with only Asian athletes/teams on it. YES (men's team)
 

42 - 13 or more nations will be represented in the quarterfinals in men's and women's individual events combined. NO - 11 (chn, ger, ind, ita, jpn, kor, mex, roc, tpe, tur, usa)

 

Athletics (13)

43 - There will be a podium sweep i.e all medals won by one nation in at least one event YES - w 100m

44 - At least two world records will be broken in the field events (including decathlon and heptathlon). NO - only 1
 

45 - United States will combined win 6 or more medals in the 100m and 200m events. NO   (4)

 

46 - Wayde van Niekerk will win a medal. NO

 

47 - All race walk gold medals will be won by Asian nations. NO

 

48 - Ukraine will win two medals in women's high jump. NO - only 1

 

49 - Japan will win at least one medal excluding race walk events and relays. NO

 

50 - At least two athletes in men's pole vault will get over 6.00m. NO

 

51 - Yulimar Rojas will have at least three jumps over 15.18m in women's triple jump final. YES

 

52 - 3 or more relay teams will be disqualified or DNF in the 100m relay events finals. YES  (2 m + 1 w)

 

53 - Joshua Cheptegei will not win any gold medals. NO

 

54 - The combined score of men's decathlon and women's heptathlon will be 15.715 or higher. YES 9018+6791

 

55 - Kenya will not win any gold medals in the 800m and 1500m for both men and women. NO

 

 

Badminton (2)

56 - Japan will win a medal in three of the five events NO (1)
 

57 - Four out of five finals will be in three sets NO (2)

 

 

Baseball (1)

58 - Two Asian teams will be on the podium NO

 

 

Basketball (2)

59 - Women's Tournament -  United States will win all their matches with a difference of more than 20 points. NO (USA-Nigeria +9)
 

60 - Men's Tournament - France will be the best-placed European team. YES

 

Basketball 3x3 (2)

61 - Women's Tournament -  Mongolia will score 10 or less points in all of their games. NO
 

62 - Men's Tournament - The two finalists will both be European teams. YES

 

Boxing (2)

63 - Great Britain and Ireland will win the same amount of gold medals NO (2-1)
 

64 - In at least two of the weight classes none of the top four seeded boxers will be on the podium. YES (women's -57, men's -52)

 

Canoeing - Slalom (2)

65 - There will be at least one missed gate (50 seconds penalty) in one of the men's finals. YES 

 

66 - None of the semifinal winners will end up winning gold. NO

 

Canoeing - Sprint (2)

67 - The boat leading after 250m in men's K-4 will win gold NO (ESP was leading, GER won gold)
 

68 - Lisa Carrington will win at least 3 medals. YES

 

Cycling - BMX (2)

69 - Colombia will win two medals in the BMX racing events. YES

 

70 - United States will win gold in both BMX freestyle events. NO (none)

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike (2)

71 - There will be less than 20 seconds between 1st and 2nd place in the men's race. NO (exactly 20 seconds)
 

72 - Both Pauline Ferrand Prevot and Sina Frei will be on the podium in women's race. NO

 

Cycling - Road (2)

73 - Rohan Dennis will beat Filippo Ganna in men's time trial. YES
 

74 - Women's road race will be decided in a sprint (less than 5 seconds between 1st and 2nd place). NO

 

Cycling - Track (3)

75 - A female athlete will win at least two individual medals. NO

 

76 - At least two world records will be broken. YES

 

77 - Netherlands will top the medal table.NO

 

Equestrian (2)

78 - Australia will finish inside the Top 8 in all three team events. NO (outside top8 in dressage)

79 - At least ten athletes will enter the medal jump-off in the individual jumping. NO  (6)

 

Fencing (2)

80 - At least one fencer seeded 17th or worst in the individual events will win a medal. YES (Cannone, etc.)
 

81 - At least one nation will win more than one gold medal in the team events. YES - Russia

 

Field Hockey (2)

82 - At least one medal match will finish without any goals scored from penalty corners. YES
 

83 - Women's Tournament - The defending gold medallists from Rio 2016, Great Britain, will be eliminated in the quarterfinals. NO

 

Football (2)

84 - Both gold medallists will be among teams who won their group in the pool phase. NO (Canada)
 

85 - Women's Tournament - United States will concede a maximum of one goal in the pool phase. NO 

 

 

 

Golf (2)

86 - Both gold medals will be won by an athlete from an Asian country. NO
 

87 - Rory Sabbatini (SVK) will finish ahead of Ondrej Lieser (CZE) in men's event.  YES

 

 

Gymnastics - Artistic (3)

88 - Women's Balance Beam - At least three athletes will fall off the beam during the apparatus final. NO
 

89 - Turkey will win their first ever olympic medal in gymnastics. YES

 

90 - Epke Zonderland will be the oldest medallists. NO

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic (1)

91 - Bulgaria and Italy will get medals in the group all-around event. YES
 

 

Gymnastics - Trampoline (1)

92 - The point difference between 1st and 3rd place in the men's and women's event finals will combined (both event included) be 2.75 or less.  YES 

 

 

Handball (2)

93 - A non-European team will make it to the semifinals (Men's or Women's). YES

 

94 - Men's Tournament - The top scorer will be a wing player. NO

 

Judo (2)

95 - Japan will win at least 7 medals. YES 

96 - Kosovo will win two medals. YES

 

 

Karate (2)

97 - At least 12 different countries will win one medal. YES
 

98 - Turkey will be the European nation with most medal (In case they equal with another European nation the answer to the question will be no). YES

 

 

Modern Pentathlon (2)

99 - At least one athlete (male or female) will win less than 8 matches in the preliminary fencing round. YES (last in women's, 4 wins)

 

100 - Egypt will have at least two athletes in the top 6 in the two events combined. (Two athletes in the top 6 in either men's or women's event or one female and one male athlete that will get a top 6 place each). NO

 

Rowing (3)

101 - Denmark will win at least three medals. NO (1)
 

102 - 16 or fewer nations will win a medal overall.  NO (18)

 

103 - The 1st and 2nd place in women's eight will be decided by 2.2 seconds or fewer. YES 

 

Rugby Sevens (2)

 

104 - In both men's and women's tournaments there will be no European team on the podium. NO - France

 

105 - New Zealand will be the best placed team from Oceania in both men's and women's tournament. NO

 

 

Sailing (2)

106 - Papua New Guinea will finish last in both Men's Laser and Women's Laser Radial classes. YES
 

107 - The two French windsurfers, Goyard and Picon, will have a combined total place that is better or equal-placed than/with Great Britain's two windsurfers, Squires and Wilson. YES (2+2 v. 3+7)

 

 

Shooting (3)

108 - In at least one event final (among 50m rifle 3P, 10m air rifle, 10m pistol, skeet, trap) the score of the women's gold medallist will be higher than the score of the men's gold medallist. YES (10m air rifle)
 

109 - In at least one individual event, the leader after the qualification stage will end up last in the final. NO

 

110 - At least one nation will win more than one medal in a single mixed team event. NO

 

Skateboard (2)

111 - Will there be a clean sweep (all podium places won by one nation) in a skateboarding event. NO
 

 

 

Softball (1)

112 - Italy will finish 6th. YES

 

 

Sport Climbing (1)

113 - In women’s combined, the winner of speed climbing in the qualification round will qualify to the combined final. YES

 

 

Surfing (2)

114 - Will any european country get a medal in surfing. NO
 

115 - At least one medalist (men's or women's) will be a surfer that didn't take part in any stage (contested prior to the 2020 Olympic Games) of the 2021 World Surf League. YES , Buitendag

 

Table Tennis (2)

116 - At least one of the following athletes will score a first round victory - Ibrahima Diaw (SEN), Yoshua Shing (VAN), Dodji Fanny (TOG), Hend Zaza (SYR). Batmönkhiin Bolor-Erdene (MGL), Sarah de Nutte (LUX). NO
 

117 - Australia will lose both opening team matches (men and women) 3:0. YES

 

Taekwondo (2)

118 - At least 20 nations will win a medal. YES (21)
 

119 - At least one nation will win its first Olympic medal in Taekwondo. YES (North Macedonia)

 

Tennis (2)

120 - The singles gold medal in either men or women event will be won by a non-Grand Slam singles winner. YES (women's)

 

121 - An athlete will win medals in singles AND doubles OR singles AND mixed event. YES  (Bencic)

 

Triathlon (2)

122 - Mixed Relay event - France will be better ranked than Great Britain and Australia will be better ranked than New Zealand. NO  (GBR gold)
 

123 - Great Britain will not win a medal in men's event. NO - silver

 

Volleyball - Indoor (2)

124 - Men's tournament - There will be three teams on the podium that played in the same group during the Group Stage. YES

 

125 - Women's tournament - It will be a repeat of the 2018 World Championship podium (Doesn't have to be in the same order). NO (China out of QF)

 

 

Volleyball - Beach (1)

126 - Brazil will win one medal or none in both men's or women's beach volleyball tournaments. YES

 

 

Weightlifting (2)

127 - At least one Chinese athete will get three invalid lifts in either snatch or clean & jerk. NO
 

128 - At least two world records will be broken (snatch, clean and jerk or overall). YES

 

Wrestling (2)

129 - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan will combined win at least 7 medals NO 
 

130 - Cuba will be ranked higher than United States in the wrestling medal table. NO

 

 

 

 

[LDOG 2,418]

I'm not doing that well I think, I've lost 39 points from the maximum so far.

 

 

On the other side, I've got five 10-pointers right and none wrong. But they were probably the easiest ones.

[LDOG 2,418]

50 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

Admittedly I lost track of the golds in judo but yeah, it was always more than 10. That was one of the easier 'YES' bets.

 

Medallists from 2004 Athens games should also be an easy 'YES' even if someone only counted for Allyson Felix as the most obvious name. Zagunis, Cassara in team fencing and the immortal Formiga in women's football still viable options to choose from

 

The bet says medalists in individual events though  So team sports and team events in general don't count.

 

 

 

I suggested "Japan wins 7 golds in Judo" but Wumo for some reason changed it to just 7 medals, which is an obvious yes.

[Monzanator 4,503]

55 minutes ago, LDOG said:

 

The bet says medalists in individual events though  So team sports and team events in general don't count.

 

 

 

I suggested "Japan wins 7 golds in Judo" but Wumo for some reason changed it to just 7 medals, which is an obvious yes.

 

Wut? Did I misread the bet question then? In this case it's Allyson Felix or McLain Ward or bust?

[hckošice 14,835]

I believe this question is solved as well and expect everybody won his 10 points easily

 

Golf (2)
 

87 - Rory Sabbatini (SVK) will finish ahead of Ondrej Lieser (CZE) in men's event. [YES/NO - X]