[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[heywoodu 16,130]

1 minute ago, dcro said:

 

Unless those are 100% Biden, it's irrelevant.

Not exactly. I believe I heard around 70-75% of the for now uncounted ballots were sent out to registered Democrats. Which does not automatically mean they all voted Biden, of course, but that would be a high enough number to definitely make it close enough for Pennsylvania to not be called yet.

[heywoodu 16,130]

This whole thing is playing out nearly exactly as Sanders said here (not sure when this was, but clearly before Election Day)  

 

 

[Vic Liu 1,699]

12 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Not exactly. I believe I heard around 70-75% of the for now uncounted ballots were sent out to registered Democrats. Which does not automatically mean they all voted Biden, of course, but that would be a high enough number to definitely make it close enough for Pennsylvania to not be called yet.

Even Joe won Pen state makes no difference. Unless Joe additionally won at least one state from WI, MI, Georgia or North Carolina. If the current outcome is correct, it's very unlikely to happen.

[heywoodu 16,130]

2 minutes ago, Vic Liu said:

Even Joe won Pen state makes no difference. Unless Joe additionally won at least one state from WI, MI, Georgia or North Carolina. If the current outcome is correct, it's very unlikely to happen.

But that's just not unlikely at all. He still has fairly realistic chances mostly in Wisconsin and Michigan, not so much in North Carolina. Georgia will depend entirely on how many votes are still coming out of the Atlanta area (mostly Democratic) and Pennsylvania could get close, but is just impossible to say for now.

 

 

If Nevada (not sure, mostly rural area to be counted, so Trump) and Arizona (looks excellent) stay blue, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough to win and Pennsylvania wouldn't even be needed.

 

Trump is definitely the favourite at this point, but it's really simply not decided yet, at all.

[dcro 10,210]

8 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

mostly in Wisconsin

100k lead with 90% votes in. No way.

[Vic Liu 1,699]

6 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

But that's just not unlikely at all. He still has fairly realistic chances mostly in Wisconsin and Michigan, not so much in North Carolina. Georgia will depend entirely on how many votes are still coming out of the Atlanta area (mostly Democratic) and Pennsylvania could get close, but is just impossible to say for now.

 

 

If Nevada (not sure, mostly rural area to be counted, so Trump) and Arizona (looks excellent) stay blue, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough to win and Pennsylvania wouldn't even be needed.

 

Trump is definitely the favourite at this point, but it's really simply not decided yet, at all.

When I say unlikely based on AP results shows 94% Wisconsin votes counted and Trump leading 51.0%vs47.7%. If it's not 94% counted but an unknown numbers of mail-in votes to count, then the situation will be very different for sure.

[heywoodu 16,130]

5 minutes ago, dcro said:

100k lead with 90% votes in. No way.

Again, that too depends on where the remaining votes are coming from. He is the favourite, yes, but both Dane County and Milwaukee County - home to the two major cities - have quite a significant amount to report in yet and both are strongly Democratic (currently 75 and 60 percent Biden, which is expected to be a tad higher in the mail ballots). It's not just numbers, it's also where they are coming from.

 

Like in Michigan, Trump is the favourite, but Biden definitely still has a realistic chance. I mean, if he doesn't, the current betting odds of around 1.7 for Trump must be absolutely free money for anyone who is convinced Trump can't lost it anymore. 

[NearPup 3,591]

On 03/11/2020 at 02:00, NearPup said:

I mean given 100,000,000 people voted already (yours truly included) it’s probably already been mostly decided.

 

I think some people on here will be pretty confused by the results tbh.

I am confused about the results.

[NearPup 3,591]

Biden is now ahead in Wisconsin by 11,000 votes.

[dcro 10,210]

It's over. Biden wins. Michigan is arguably more likely to flip than Wisconsin.