[OFF TOPIC] Politics Thread

[Monzanator 3,612]

7 minutes ago, Agger said:

 

Not really stacking up. He is spending big money on ads in Super Tuesday states.  

But I strongly doubt that it will be the money stopping the top candidates here.

But I do think that candidates are looking at Bloomberg. He is moving up in national polling having surpassed Buttigieg in most polls and Warren in a few as well. If Biden collapses, it's not impossible that he will be dangerous.

Most bookies even has him at second only after Bernie..

 

Sanders and Warren still split the progressive vote. One of them needs to go. Buttigieg has zero support from the blacks & ethnic minorities. If Dems voters think that Bloomberg has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden that kills Biden's chances too. Sounds like Bloomberg vs Sanders battle unless Biden rallies in the wealthy states AND scores a landslide among the black voters. What I don't know is whether blacks and Latinos will support Bloomberg?

 

Dems have lost Deep South a while back, Biden is supposed to win South Carolina by a mile - a state with 60% of black population. Buttigieg will be slaughtered there IMO.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Monzanator

[Agger 1,598]

34 minutes ago, Monzanator said:

 

Sanders and Warren still split the progressive vote. One of them needs to go. Buttigieg has zero support from the blacks & ethnic minorities. If Dems voters think that Bloomberg has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden that kills Biden's chances too. Sounds like Bloomberg vs Sanders battle unless Biden rallies in the wealthy states AND scores a landslide among the black voters. What I don't know is whether blacks and Latinos will support Bloomberg?

 

Dems have lost Deep South a while back, Biden is supposed to win South Carolina by a mile - a state with 60% of black population. Buttigieg will be slaughtered there IMO.

 

In fact Buttigieg got as much from liberals as Warren in Iowa (entrance polling, so give or take) and 15 % of the votes from non-whites (though this was most likely a small sample and therefore in no way certain to be representative of a momentum).

Biden's chances does indeed rely on electability, but even among those focused on beating Trump, Buttigieg ended up with more votes. If that ends up representative during the next states, he is lost

It's all one state and one that doesn't represent the country very well demographically, but it has given some interesting pointers for especially Buttigieg. It is still very likely that the lacking support from minorities will be in the way of his chances (and I still don't give him much of a chance), but Iowa has without the slightest bit of doubt been a major boost. He'll need to keep it up in NH and pick up new voters, also outside his demographical base.

But Sanders vs. Bloomberg? I believe that a brokered convention is MUCH more likely than Bloomberg unless some of the moderates withdraw early (after Super Tuesday at the very latest). Even at this rate Biden will be getting way too much delegates for Bloomberg to get the majority.

[Monzanator 3,612]

2 hours ago, Agger said:

 

In fact Buttigieg got as much from liberals as Warren in Iowa (entrance polling, so give or take) and 15 % of the votes from non-whites (though this was most likely a small sample and therefore in no way certain to be representative of a momentum).

Biden's chances does indeed rely on electability, but even among those focused on beating Trump, Buttigieg ended up with more votes. If that ends up representative during the next states, he is lost

It's all one state and one that doesn't represent the country very well demographically, but it has given some interesting pointers for especially Buttigieg. It is still very likely that the lacking support from minorities will be in the way of his chances (and I still don't give him much of a chance), but Iowa has without the slightest bit of doubt been a major boost. He'll need to keep it up in NH and pick up new voters, also outside his demographical base.

But Sanders vs. Bloomberg? I believe that a brokered convention is MUCH more likely than Bloomberg unless some of the moderates withdraw early (after Super Tuesday at the very latest). Even at this rate Biden will be getting way too much delegates for Bloomberg to get the majority.

 

This whole "state isn't representative enough" talk is BS. California and New York are probably the most racially diversified states in the USA, right? Then we have Texas, Florida and New Mexico due to the huge Latinos presence there. Illinois is probably the most diversified with a black presence. Scrap the whole Iowa, NH, South Carolina crap and just settle in the big markets, whoever wins California and New York should be the ultimate choice. Most of the rural states have no real influence to begin with. Has there ever been a President from Idaho or Wyoming? Probably not. Nobody cares about this.

 

I said before that Bloomberg follows the Trump's path. Old white billionaire who has enough money not to be reliant on the party funds and meetings. This is where the US politics heads to. All those "next Obamas" are getting swamped by the reality mud. Julian Castro is as good as done, likewise Beto O'Rourke. Buttigieg will probably follow suit since the ethnic minorities will ignore him and vote for old guys like Biden. Getting picked as Obama's running mate is Biden's biggest calling card that profits until today tbh. This is like an emotional Obama debt he is collecting right now.

[Olympian1010 7,541]

Bloomberg will struggle for the minority vote, at least I would imagine. His “Stop and Frisk” policy was probably the biggest racial disaster in the New York State law enforcement history.

[Monzanator 3,612]

8 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

Bloomberg will struggle for the minority vote, at least I would imagine. His “Stop and Frisk” policy was probably the biggest racial disaster in the New York State law enforcement history.

 

Last time I checked 67% of Dems voters would support a guy who has the biggest chance of beating Trump? The ideological change Sanders preaches will bounce off the wall if Bloomberg makes a Grand Slam entrance as the "only guy who can beat Trump". The fear of Trump reelection is probably bigger than any reasonable idea Sanders or Buttigieg can come up with to win the nomination saying the positive things. There's nothing positive about the Dems process, getting rid of Trump anyway, anyhow is the main thing IMO.

[Dnl 673]

1 minute ago, Monzanator said:

 

Last time I checked 67% of Dems voters would support a guy who has the biggest chance of beating Trump? The ideological change Sanders preaches will bounce off the wall if Bloomberg makes a Grand Slam entrance as the "only guy who can beat Trump". The fear of Trump reelection is probably bigger than any reasonable idea Sanders or Buttigieg can come up with to win the nomination saying the positive things. There's nothing positive about the Dems process, getting rid of Trump anyway, anyhow is the main thing IMO.

we Also have this kind of candidates No ideology No promises just the goal of changing PM sorry to tell this for the Democrats but during Trump’s time in charge he did not destroyed America like a lot are Trying to picture it he done a lot of great things it just so easy for some to look only on what is bad

[Olympian1010 7,541]

40 minutes ago, Dnl said:

we Also have this kind of candidates No ideology No promises just the goal of changing PM sorry to tell this for the Democrats but during Trump’s time in charge he did not destroyed America like a lot are Trying to picture it he done a lot of great things it just so easy for some to look only on what is bad

Can we just make Trump the Israeli PM? You guys seem to like him, and it would be a good trade if could get Gantz 

[Dnl 673]

1 minute ago, Olympian1010 said:

Can we just make Trump the Israeli PM? You guys seem to like him, and it would be a good trade if could get Gantz 

Yeah since his done a lot for us and the strong relationship between the countries for me I just hope that the next US president whether it’s trump or anyone else for that matter will keep this good and strong relationship????? And as for the trade well.. that a good one tbh?? ? 

[Maxim Fastovsky 124]

1 hour ago, Dnl said:

we Also have this kind of candidates No ideology No promises just the goal of changing PM sorry to tell this for the Democrats but during Trump’s time in charge he did not destroyed America like a lot are Trying to picture it he done a lot of great things it just so easy for some to look only on what is bad

 

It's been our problem for years in israel, this whole "just not bibi" ideology. It led to this horrible situation of an election after election, with over a year now without any form of government (thanks to liberman)

[heywoodu 13,611]

2 hours ago, Dnl said:

we Also have this kind of candidates No ideology No promises just the goal of changing PM sorry to tell this for the Democrats but during Trump’s time in charge he did not destroyed America like a lot are Trying to picture it he done a lot of great things it just so easy for some to look only on what is bad

Plus he took credit for a whole lot of good things that were actually already done before him  

 

One of his biggest qualities is taking credit either for things someone else actually implemented (especially Obama) or for things that he says but simply are not true  Not like, someone disagrees with it, but things that are actually not true (think "blue and red are the same colour!"...no, they are not)