Swimming 2017 Discussion Thread

[dareza 911]

1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

You seem to be one of the very few users here who are interested in swimming outside of world championships/olympics, so you might have a use for it:

https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/data-hub

(Here you can find world rankings by age/date of birth)

For example Steenbergen is currently 5th in the 50 free world rankings of all girls born in 2000 or later (0.03 behind Anderson), 3rd in the 100 free (only behind Ikee and Oleksiak) and 5th in the 200 free (behind Ikee and 3 chinese girls, but Ruck and Oleksiak should also be able to go faster).

BTW: Have a look at the womens 100 free world rankings for girls born in 2000 or later ... the depth of the canadian girls is crazy (53.84 Oleksiak, 54.62 Sanchez, 54.97 Smith, 55.03 Ruck), if they all compete at the junior world championships, then they should absolutely destroy the junior world record in the 400 free relay and i think only Canada might be able to challenge Australia in 2020.

I probably agree about Anderson beating her in the 100 free, but the 50 free might be a different story and Gose improved her PB to 1:59.12 this year without even having tapered, so you would expect that she is able to go a lot faster at the german nationals next week, hopefully at least sub 1:58 (which would be a great time for a 14 year old). Last year she dropped 1.6s at the german nationals.

 

thanks for this site

 

Yes, swimming is one of my favorite sport and every week I follow some meeting. This week Mare Nostrum in Monaco.

 

A huge difference between Crevar and other European girls on 400IM I don't understand how. Last year she had good strong opponents, but this time probably will win this without problem. On WJC probably fight with girls from Japan.

Edited June 11, 2017 by dareza

[OlympicsFan 858]

vor 22 Stunden schrieb dareza:

 

thanks for this site

 

Yes, swimming is one of my favorite sport and every week I follow some meeting. This week Mare Nostrum in Monaco.

 

A huge difference between Crevar and other European girls on 400IM I don't understand how. Last year she had good strong opponents, but this time probably will win this without problem. On WJC probably fight with girls from Japan.

It certainly looks as if this is a weaker generation of 400 IM talents, especially from Europe, but:

1) I am sure that some japanese/chinese/canadian/american girls will swim sub 4:40 at the junior world championships, so Crevar will have to perform at her very best if she wants to win a medal.

2) I dont think that a russian girl will come out of nowhere at the european junior championships, so Crevar could very well be the favorite, but i think some british or italian girls will be able to swim close to 4:40 by then + dont forget about Julia Mrozinski (4:42 last year, lets see what she can do at the german nationals this week).

3) Womens 400 IM in general seems to be one of the weaker events + the junior world record doesnt seem as crazy fast as some of the other junior world records + the winning times at junior world championships/youth olympics are normally not that fast either + Russia/China (who often have crazy talents), are normally not that good in womens 200/400 IM, which is certainly one of the reasons why it is easier to win a medal at junior level in this event, compared to some other events (for example womens 100 fly).

4) If you only look at the girls who are 1 year older (born in 1999), then you find a couple of very fast times:

4:36.60 for Harvey from Canada

4:37.25 for Wood from GB

So Crevar will need to drop a lot of time during the rest of the year and the beginning of next year, if she wants to keep up with those girls.

 

If you change the date range to 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2017, you can see that some girls born in 2000 had some really fast times last year and probably just didnt taper so far this year, so you can expect some of them to still improve this year (here are all the girls born in 2000, who had a time of sub 4:43 last year and might improve their times later on this year):

Runa Imai: 4:41.52

Anna Pirovano: 4:42.06

Julia Mrozinski: 4:42.39

Ajna Kesely: 4:42.53

I think Kesely will focus on 200/400 + maybe 800 free and i am not optimistic about Mrozinski, but i am pretty sure that at least one out of Pirovano/Imai will swim sub 4:40 later on this year.

 

Is Crevar still 16 years old or did she already turn 17? If she is still 16, she would be 8th in the american all-time ranking for 15/16 year olds and if she already turned 17, she would be 18th in the american all-time ranking for 17/18 year olds.

 

By the way: It is really fun to "play" with the junior world rankings and for example look at the world rankings only for girls born in 2002 or later.

 

[heywoodu 15,135]

No Missy Franklin at the world champs, she's hasn't recovered yet from a shoulder surgery. 

[dareza 911]

10 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

It certainly looks as if this is a weaker generation of 400 IM talents, especially from Europe, but:

1) I am sure that some japanese/chinese/canadian/american girls will swim sub 4:40 at the junior world championships, so Crevar will have to perform at her very best if she wants to win a medal.

2) I dont think that a russian girl will come out of nowhere at the european junior championships, so Crevar could very well be the favorite, but i think some british or italian girls will be able to swim close to 4:40 by then + dont forget about Julia Mrozinski (4:42 last year, lets see what she can do at the german nationals this week).

3) Womens 400 IM in general seems to be one of the weaker events + the junior world record doesnt seem as crazy fast as some of the other junior world records + the winning times at junior world championships/youth olympics are normally not that fast either + Russia/China (who often have crazy talents), are normally not that good in womens 200/400 IM, which is certainly one of the reasons why it is easier to win a medal at junior level in this event, compared to some other events (for example womens 100 fly).

4) If you only look at the girls who are 1 year older (born in 1999), then you find a couple of very fast times:

4:36.60 for Harvey from Canada

4:37.25 for Wood from GB

So Crevar will need to drop a lot of time during the rest of the year and the beginning of next year, if she wants to keep up with those girls.

 

If you change the date range to 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2017, you can see that some girls born in 2000 had some really fast times last year and probably just didnt taper so far this year, so you can expect some of them to still improve this year (here are all the girls born in 2000, who had a time of sub 4:43 last year and might improve their times later on this year):

Runa Imai: 4:41.52

Anna Pirovano: 4:42.06

Julia Mrozinski: 4:42.39

Ajna Kesely: 4:42.53

I think Kesely will focus on 200/400 + maybe 800 free and i am not optimistic about Mrozinski, but i am pretty sure that at least one out of Pirovano/Imai will swim sub 4:40 later on this year.

 

Is Crevar still 16 years old or did she already turn 17? If she is still 16, she would be 8th in the american all-time ranking for 15/16 year olds and if she already turned 17, she would be 18th in the american all-time ranking for 17/18 year olds.

 

By the way: It is really fun to "play" with the junior world rankings and for example look at the world rankings only for girls born in 2002 or later.

 

 

she was born in May 24 00. So, 17.

[dareza 911]

8 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

No Missy Franklin at the world champs, she's hasn't recovered yet from a shoulder surgery. 

 

I am really sorry for this girl   She could more than this.

[dareza 911]

2:19.83 for Efimova

[heywoodu 15,135]

11 minutes ago, dareza said:

2:19.83 for Efimova

And Sjöström going under 24 seconds on 50 free again followed by a 56.27 on the 100 fly  (or fly followed by free, not sure, but you get the point  )

Edited June 15, 2017 by heywoodu

[dareza 911]

Just now, heywoodu said:

And Sjöström going under 24 seconds on 50 free again followed by a 56.20 on the 100 fly 

 

yes I saw Results are crazy. I can't imagine their results on world championship

[heywoodu 15,135]

52.28 for Sjöström in the 100 free yesterday, 4th fastest ever, a few minutes after being lightning quick on the 50 fly 

 

52.06 Cate Campbell, WR, 2016

52.07 Britta Steffen, 2009

52.22 Britta Steffen, 2009

52.28, Sarah Sjostrom, 2017

52.33, Cate Campbell, 2013

 

Swimming, the sport where the need for recovery does not exist 

[dcro 10,210]

14 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Swimming, the sport where the need for recovery does not exist 

 

And where World records have no limits.