How Many Medals do You Expect from Your Nation at the Winter Olympic Games Milano Cortina 2026？

[Styrka 223]

I’m "stealing" your method.  I’m often very bad at this kind of prediction, but I still find it very fun to do.

 

 France's Medal Prospects

 

 

Sports Where France Should Medal

 

 

Biathlon – France usually wins between 5 and 7 medals at the Olympic Games, but since 2022, we’ve been more in the 10+ medals range at the World Championships. It’s no secret that France’s success at these Olympics will depend entirely on biathlon results. The good news is that Lou Jeanmonnot and Julia Simon are absolute monsters on the Antholz Anterselva track. The bad news is that our men’s team hasn’t reached a single individual podium on this track since 2021 (same for Justine Braisaz-Bouchet, who nevertheless did win an Individual race in Antholz five years ago). On top of that, the Italians—Giacomel and Vitozzi in particular—are likely to be untouchable. Still, given the current form of the French team this year and the relatively large number of biathlon events, I don’t think it’s impossible to break the biathlon medal record, or even the record for titles at a single Olympics for . 6–10 medals.

 

Ski Mountaineering – At least one medal in each event doesn’t seem unrealistic, and the Emily Harrop / Thibault Anselmet duo are favorites for gold. 2–3 medals.

 

Figure Skating – Guillaume Cizeron and Laurence Fournier Beaudry are favorites for a podium spot in ice dance, I assume. Adam Siao Him Fa and Kevin Aymoz are not really in contention this year—no chance of reaching the podium this time. 1 medal.

 

Sports Where France Could Medal

 

Snowboarding – As at every Olympics, our snowboard cross team shows up in force, with many athletes who have already reached the podium multiple times in World Cups and World Championships. France always ends up leaving with one, sometimes two medals, but I feel the team tends to underperform most of the time (snowboard cross remains a fairly unpredictable sport). Léa Casta was last year’s world leader, Chloé Trespeusch is coming off three consecutive podiums, and three different men have reached the podium this year in World Cup events… But I fear Charlotte Bankes will be unbeatable among the women, and Adam Lambert looks very strong this year for the men.
Romain Allemand is one of our major hopes for 2030 in big air/slopestyle—we’ll see whether he can already perform this year or simply discover the Olympic atmosphere. 2–3 medals.

 

Freestyle Skiing – As mentioned in an another topic, the absence of Tess Ledeux really hurts. Perrine Laffont is also injured but is expected to be at the Games, probably not in her best shape. That’s four major medal chances gone. All hopes therefore rest on our ski cross teams. Among the women, Marielle Berger-Sabbatel is our best chance, but she often prefers winning the small final rather than making it to the big final —and the competition is fierce in this event. Among the men, Youri Duplessis Kergomard is a regular World Cup podium finisher but rarely performs at championships (except last year, when he finished 2nd before being disqualified). 0–1 medal.

 

Speed Skating – I honestly know nothing about it, but I understand that the French team is in the middle of a resurgence. There are expectations around Timothy Loubineaud, but this pressure is completely new to him (and he has admitted several times that it’s very bad for his mental health), so I’m not sure he’ll perform well at the Games. 0–1 medal.

 

Alpine Skiing – France’s glory years are a long way behind us now. Cyprien Sarrazin is still injured, and I think everything has to be pinned on the men’s slalom. Clément Noël is the reigning Olympic champion, and Paco Rassat has won two races this year. Still, like Timothy Loubineaud, all the pressure will be on their shoulders to save French alpine skiing results… which makes it very tough for them. Unless we get a pleasant surprise elsewhere (Miradoli among the women, or a man in downhill). 0–1 medal.

 

Cross-Country Skiing – Unfortunately, results in cross-country skiing haven’t been good this year. Chanavat is coming back from injury, Claudel has completely disappeared, and Jouve and Chappaz are getting older… There’s always a small chance in the men’s relay, as every four years, but aside from Lapalus and Desloges, we’re lacking new talent. 0–1 medal.

 

 

Sports Where France Won't Medal

 

All other sports – No chance.

 

 

Summary

 

Final prediction – 11–21 medals.
I’ve read some people here saying that France could be a pleasant surprise at these Olympic Games. I agree that the momentum is excellent for 2030, but the French team is still a bit “young” for this year. Beating the medal record (15) would already be a great success.

 

Edited January 28 by Styrka

[bestmen 2,926]

This is nordic sports 

The southern half of planet will shut their mouth 

[SalamAkhi 359]

Good summary Styrka. Loubineaud is an unknown factor as we don't know how the Games will affect him, but his results this year are very promising, especially in the 5000. There is also a slight chance in the team pursuit. 

I would add short-track as an unlikely but still possible medal conveyor, because we have a women's relay starting. With only 8 teams and straight semis you're one contact away from a final, and then short-track happens.

[hckošice 16,645]

1 hour ago, Styrka said:

I’m "stealing" your method.  I’m often very bad at this kind of prediction, but I still find it very fun to do.

 

 France's Medal Prospects

 

 

Sports Where France Should Medal

 

 

Biathlon – France usually wins between 5 and 7 medals at the Olympic Games, but since 2022, we’ve been more in the 10+ medals range at the World Championships. It’s no secret that France’s success at these Olympics will depend entirely on biathlon results. The good news is that Lou Jeanmonnot and Julia Simon are absolute monsters on the Antholz Anterselva track. The bad news is that our men’s team hasn’t reached a single individual podium on this track since 2021 (same for Justine Braisaz-Bouchet, who nevertheless did win an Individual race in Antholz five years ago). On top of that, the Italians—Giacomel and Vitozzi in particular—are likely to be untouchable. Still, given the current form of the French team this year and the relatively large number of biathlon events, I don’t think it’s impossible to break the biathlon medal record, or even the record for titles at a single Olympics for . 6–10 medals.

 

Ski Mountaineering – At least one medal in each event doesn’t seem unrealistic, and the Emily Harrop / Thibault Anselmet duo are favorites for gold. 2–3 medals.

 

Figure Skating – Guillaume Cizeron and Laurence Fournier Beaudry are favorites for a podium spot in ice dance, I assume. Adam Siao Him Fa and Kevin Aymoz are not really in contention this year—no chance of reaching the podium this time. 1 medal.

 

Sports Where France Could Medal

 

Snowboarding – As at every Olympics, our snowboard cross team shows up in force, with many athletes who have already reached the podium multiple times in World Cups and World Championships. France always ends up leaving with one, sometimes two medals, but I feel the team tends to underperform most of the time (snowboard cross remains a fairly unpredictable sport). Léa Casta was last year’s world leader, Chloé Trespeusch is coming off three consecutive podiums, and three different men have reached the podium this year in World Cup events… But I fear Charlotte Bankes will be unbeatable among the women, and Adam Lambert looks very strong this year for the men.
Romain Allemand is one of our major hopes for 2030 in big air/slopestyle—we’ll see whether he can already perform this year or simply discover the Olympic atmosphere. 2–3 medals.

 

Freestyle Skiing – As mentioned in an another topic, the absence of Tess Ledeux really hurts. Perrine Laffont is also injured but is expected to be at the Games, probably not in her best shape. That’s four major medal chances gone. All hopes therefore rest on our ski cross teams. Among the women, Marielle Berger-Sabbatel is our best chance, but she often prefers winning the small final rather than making it to the big final —and the competition is fierce in this event. Among the men, Youri Duplessis Kergomard is a regular World Cup podium finisher but rarely performs at championships (except last year, when he finished 2nd before being disqualified). 0–1 medal.

 

Speed Skating – I honestly know nothing about it, but I understand that the French team is in the middle of a resurgence. There are expectations around Timothy Loubineaud, but this pressure is completely new to him (and he has admitted several times that it’s very bad for his mental health), so I’m not sure he’ll perform well at the Games. 0–1 medal.

 

Alpine Skiing – France’s glory years are a long way behind us now. Cyprien Sarrazin is still injured, and I think everything has to be pinned on the men’s slalom. Clément Noël is the reigning Olympic champion, and Paco Rassat has won two races this year. Still, like Timothy Loubineaud, all the pressure will be on their shoulders to save French alpine skiing results… which makes it very tough for them. Unless we get a pleasant surprise elsewhere (Miradoli among the women, or a man in downhill). 0–1 medal.

 

Cross-Country Skiing – Unfortunately, results in cross-country skiing haven’t been good this year. Chanavat is coming back from injury, Claudel has completely disappeared, and Jouve and Chappaz are getting older… There’s always a small chance in the men’s relay, as every four years, but aside from Lapalus and Desloges, we’re lacking new talent. 0–1 medal.

 

 

Sports Where France Won't Medal

 

All other sports – No chance.

 

 

Summary

 

Final prediction – 11–21 medals.
I’ve read some people here saying that France could be a pleasant surprise at these Olympic Games. I agree that the momentum is excellent for 2030, but the French team is still a bit “young” for this year. Beating the medal record (15) would already be a great success.

 

I really hope and wish hockey will finally receive some important air time on main France TV channel this time.   If not now, then I guess it will be a death case

[Styrka 223]

14 minutes ago, hckošice said:

I really hope and wish hockey will finally receive some important air time on main France TV channel this time.   If not now, then I guess it will be a death case

The fact that both of our teams have qualified for the Olympics this year will help immensely. And hockey has the potential to create real excitement (I suppose Heated Rivalry has already helped boost its popularity ).

[Bailer 162]

27 minutes ago, Styrka said:

The fact that both of our teams have qualified for the Olympics this year will help immensely. And hockey has the potential to create real excitement (I suppose Heated Rivalry has already helped boost its popularity ).

And you're also hosting the World Championships and the Olympics in the upcoming years!

[Dragon 2,085]

22 hours ago, TeamGB said:

At this point I'm basically just procrastinating on all my uni assignments but here's my attempt.

 

 Great Britain's Medal Prospects 

LIKELY

 

Curling - In my view, Mouat's rink are undeserving of the title of outright favourites, but they are certainly up there, as is the mixed team. The women's rink isn't as strong but they surprised me with the European performance so who knows. Overall, I think leaving without a medal would be seen as a real disappointment. 

 

Freestyle Skiing - Zoe Atkin and Kirsty Muir have both won world cup and X games golds this season, so will be up there for the medals. Freestyle Skiing is an unpredictable sport though so no guarantees can be made. I would say Muir is the more likely out of the two (especially considering she's entered in two events). Elsewhere on the team the chances are slim to none. Gus Kenworthy has come out of retirement but frankly it would be a huge surprise to see him anywhere near to podium again.

 

Skeleton - After such a disappointing Beijing, the team has been reborn, with Matt Weston and Marcus Wyatt claiming all world cup golds this season. The women's team has been less consistent, with Tabby Stoecker being the most likely to contend, although on their say all 3 women can challenge. The mixed relay provides further medal opportunities, although so far this season it has been quite unpredictable. Realistically though, multiple medals are on the cards and I would hope a gold is as well.

 

Snowboarding - Mia Brookes again performed strongly at the X-Games, so she should be in contention for both her events. Charlotte Bankes seems to be finding some form as well, and she and Huw Nightingale are always formidable in the snowboard cross. Across these events, I would hope there will be at least one medal, but winter sports always throw curveballs.

 

POSSIBLE

 

Bobsleigh - A couple of years ago this would have been fairly likely but Brad Halls form is not as strong. He seems to have been improving over the last few races to it wouldn't be unsurprising if he could snag a bronze in one of the disciplines, but nothing further is likely.

 

Figure Skating - The media likes to hype things up, and this talk about Fear and Gibson being the next Torvil and Dean is frankly misguided. To be clear, on their day, they can certainly content for a medal, but they have to be flawless, and their European performance was anything but. The emergence of the new French pairing will certainly harm their chances too.

 

 VERY UNLIKELY

 

Alpine Skiing - It looks as though all three athletes are only entered in the Slalom, which does simplify our prospects. Dave Ryding has shown he can win a medal on his day, and Laurie Taylor finished 4th earlier in the season, but the be blunt it would be a major shock if either could get on the podium. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

 

Cross Country Skiing - Andy Musgrave is in a similar camp to Dave Ryding where if everything falls into place, a medal is possible, but it is a huge stretch. Joe Davies looks to be the strongest on the team but again, the strength of other nations, even without the Russians, makes this highly improbable.

 

Short Track Speed Skating - Niall Treacy is the only athlete entered, and whilst he has won a world cup medal in the past, he would need quite a lot of fortune to repeat that feat. Again, it is short track, so who knows.

 

 

 

IMPOSSIBLE

 

Biathlon - No way, I was surprised we even sent a team.

 

Speed Skating - Elia Smeding has slowly been creeping up the order this season in the 1000m but I fear it is too little too late. A top 10 finish is on the cards though for sure.

 

 

Summary

 

To be honest I'm to wary of the unpredictability of winter sports to give the team a floor, but quietly I whisper 2 medals minimum.

 

If all went to plan, I could realistically see a maximum of 18 medals (3 curling, 3 Freestyle Skiing, 5 skeleton, 2  bobsleigh, 4 snowboarding and 1 figure skating), but I think I'm more likely to get struck by lightning then to get anywhere close to that.

 

This would leave me with an expected total of 6 medals, which would be a new record. 

 

Can't wait to be proved woefully wrong and we stagger back with a few scraps like 4 years ago. 

 

Frankly, GB has never gone into a Winter Games with so many medal chances.

A bad Games could see just a handful of minor medals, an absolutely perfect Games might see Britain at the bottom end of the top 6 countries in the medal table.

Probably the truth will be in between.

[LuizGuilherme 340]

3 hours ago, bestmen said:

This is nordic sports 

The southern half of planet will shut their mouth 

This time Brazil can actually win some thing

[LuizGuilherme 340]

Actually, TV coverage will be huge here, the main TV channel will broadcast lot of things live

[hckošice 16,645]

1 hour ago, Styrka said:

The fact that both of our teams have qualified for the Olympics this year will help immensely. And hockey has the potential to create real excitement (I suppose Heated Rivalry has already helped boost its popularity ).

 

btw Texier in Canadian live tv show speaking about this new "phenomenon"