Summer Olympic Games Los Angeles 2028 Qualifying Simulation

[JoshMartini007 2,820]

6 hours ago, Benolympique said:

Is it possible to have just your projections for team sports? Thank you.

Nations

Baseball Softball

Basketball

Cricket

Field Hockey

Flag Football

Football

Handball

Lacrosse

Rugby Sevens

Volleyball

Water Polo

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[JoshMartini007 2,820]

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update

 

Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

 

 

Aquatics (Water Polo)

The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.

 

Athletics (Marathon)

Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of

 

Badminton

Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.

 

Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.

 

Canoeing

The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.

 

Cricket

The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.

 

Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)

Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.

 

Fencing

We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.

 

In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.

 

Handball

Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.

 

Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.

 

Rowing

The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.

 

Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.

 

The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu

 

Rugby Sevens

Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.

 

As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.

 

Shooting

The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out

 

Squash

The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.

 

The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine

 

Triathlon

The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.

 

Weightlifting

The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.

 

Wrestling

The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

 

Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

[Siddhartha Talukdar 258]

Hi everyone, with most of the sports' qualification documents released I did my own qualification simulation for all events including Tripartite places based on latest rankings followed by respective World Championships.

For the simulation Russian and Belarusian athletes have been considered.

Please note Swimming quotas are based on 2025 results. Even though Athletics qualification hasn't been released I assumed it to be same as 2024. Universality places for Athletics and Swimming are indicative only to ensure 1 athlete per gender qualify in the sport.

Here is the sheet.

 

[Roamingrover86 956]

On 2/4/2026 at 9:33 AM, JoshMartini007 said:

 

Here is the link to the updated sheet.

Thanks for the amazing work on the spreadsheet. If my eye's read correctly you expect  to get a quota in Sprint (M) canoeing . This will be historic, if time permits could you elaborate a bit please. What are the chances we get to hold on to the quota place ? Is their a risk of missing out? Thanks! I don't follow canoeing much so had a hard time simulating the qualification scenarios. Thanks!