How many medals do you expect from your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024?

[rafalgorka 1,821]

43 minutes ago, Josh said:

You’re thinking Wasick?

Or one of men's butterfly events... One can dream, too good to be true

[Josh 13,512]

1 minute ago, rafalgorka said:

Or one of men's butterfly events... One can dream, too good to be true

Forgot about Chmielewski 

[OlympicIRL 6,307]

For Ireland, we go into the Olympics with a lot of hope and with more medal chances than I can ever remember, but not so many nailed on favourites this time and golds look like they could be hard to come by.

Here is a run down of some medal contenders and then I listed overall predictions below. I'd be interested to hear anyone else's thoughts on these:

 

Athletics:

 

Medal Contenders: Adeleke (W 400m), Mageean (W 1500m), (Mx 4x400m), (W 4x400m)

 

Optimistic: 2-3 medals

Realistic: 1 medal

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Boxing:

 

Medal Contenders: All 10 of them, with a kind draw and a bit of luck and skill, any qualified boxer could sneak a bronze. Biggest contenders IMO are O'Rourke (W 75), Harrington (W 60), Walsh (W 66), Moorehouse (W 50), Gallagher (M 57), Marley (M 92)

 

Optimistic: 3+ medals

Realistic: 2 medals

Pessimistic: 0-1 medals (1 medal is kind of between realistic and pessimistic for me. I think given we have 10 boxers qualified, I am hoping 2 can medal).

 

Cycling Road:

 

Medal Contenders: Ben Healy (M Road Race)

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0 medals

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Cycling Track:

 

Medal Contenders: Lara Gillespie (W Omnium)

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0 medals

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Equestrian:

 

Medal Contenders: Showjumping Team and Individuals, Eventing Team and Individuals

 

Optimistic: 1+ medals

Realistic: 0 medals (could have said 1 for this as well but just by usual Olympic form for us I am going for 0 again)

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Golf:

 

Medal Contenders: Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Leona Maguire

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0 medals

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Artistic Gymnastics:

 

Medal Contenders: Rhys McClenaghan (M Pommel)

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0-1 medal (for Rhys it really is touch and go given the small margins between glory and failure in this sport).

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Rowing:

 

Medal Contenders: M Lightweight Double, M Double, W Pair, W Lightweight Double, W Double

 

Optimistic: 2+ medals

Realistic: 1-2 medals (more towards 1 than 2 tbh)

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Rugby Sevens:

 

Medal Contenders: Men's Team, Women's Team (definitely the men with way more chance than the women).

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0 medals (going with 0 here as although the men have every chance, just think there's more scenarios where they don't medal than they do).

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Swimming:

 

Medal Contenders: Daniel Wiffen (M 800m Freestyle, M 1500m Freestyle)

 

Optimistic: 2 medals

Realistic: 1 medal

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

Taekwondo:

 

Medal Contenders: Jack Woolley (M 58)... a very outside chance, but you never know, he could sneak a bronze.

 

Optimistic: 1 medal

Realistic: 0 medals

Pessimistic: 0 medals

 

 

Overall Medal Predictions:

 

Optimistic: 8+ medals

Realistic: 5-7 medals

Pessimistic: 0-4 medals

 

Overall Gold Predictions:

Optimistic: 2+ Gold medals

Realistic: 1-2 Gold medals

Pessimistic: 0 Gold medals

 

My bold prediction is we win 1 gold, 2 silver and 3 bronze

Edited June 14, 2024 by OlympicIRL

[intoronto 6,905]

Rule of thumb is divide your medal chances by 3 and you will get a ballpark figure of medals won

[OlympicIRL 6,307]

4 minutes ago, intoronto said:

Rule of thumb is divide your medal chances by 3 and you will get a ballpark figure of medals won

That never really worked for Ireland over the years.... more like divide it by 6

[dullard 744]

4 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Or one of men's butterfly events... One can dream, too good to be true

Wasick has a good chance to medal just not gold. Chance improves even more if Douglass doesn't do the 50 free.

[Styrka 223]

 

Less than 50 medals would be a huge disappointment..

More than 60 medals seems to be a bit extreme !

So let's say 55 medals.

 

Breaking the record for gold medals (15) would also be a nice surprise !

[Cosmo Kramer 24]

OlympicIRL - a very good summation of Ireland's position there. I have us coming in around the six medal mark also. Could be as low as three if things go very badly, or as high as 10 if we finally have the games where everything clicks into place which I feel we are due at this point. But six seems the more likely midpoint that we'll likely end up close to.

 

As an aside I do slightly worry that people who don't follow Olympic sport in Ireland will have unrealistic expectations for our athletics team after the past week. They've seen all the European medals and assume that will follow through to the Olympics. But, as we know, the most likely medal outcome for us in athletics remains 0 or 1.

[OlympicIRL 6,307]

5 hours ago, Cosmo Kramer said:

OlympicIRL - a very good summation of Ireland's position there. I have us coming in around the six medal mark also. Could be as low as three if things go very badly, or as high as 10 if we finally have the games where everything clicks into place which I feel we are due at this point. But six seems the more likely midpoint that we'll likely end up close to.

 

As an aside I do slightly worry that people who don't follow Olympic sport in Ireland will have unrealistic expectations for our athletics team after the past week. They've seen all the European medals and assume that will follow through to the Olympics. But, as we know, the most likely medal outcome for us in athletics remains 0 or 1.

 

For sure, I think the casual Irish fan will have very unrealistic expectations this time for the following reasons:

 

• Athletics - as you say, they will think we can replicate the same success in the Olympics as we had in Europeans. I do think either one of the relays or Adeleke in the individual will come good, but 1 medal would be a heck of an achievement. Mageean in there too to help give us another outside chance, but that's all it is given how strong the W 1500m field is on the global stage.

 

• Rowing - the casual fan will have no idea just how disastrous this season has been for our rowers with injury and illness. Almost our entire squad has suffered in this regard. They will assume the men's LW double just need to turn up to win gold but that's far from the reality this year. I think they will medal but gold is going to be a big task this year. I still think they can do it but for what it's worth but my expectations have seriously dampened. The other Irish crews too are going in as huge underdogs given the turbulent season they have all endured.

 

• Boxing - the causal fan will assume we will walk away with more medals, even gold in boxing but there is every possibility we could leave with zero, losing a few quarter-finals. I think we will manage to get 1 or 2 medals but we are not favourites in many of the categories.

 

• Swimming - the casual fan will remember Wiffen won 2 golds at the World Championships earlier this year without fully grasping the fact that some of the big stars who beat him last year were absent. I think he will medal at the Olympics but he won't be the gold medal favourite that some could think he is just based off the result at the worlds.

 

• Gymnastics - Rhys McClenaghan is two-time back to back world champion in men's pommel so he must be set to win a medal in Paris. Yeah, it doesn't work like that at all and he has serious rivals to contend with not to mention the fact that one tiny error could cost you even a place in the final.

 

 

I think overall we have so many chances this year, it would be disastrous if we finished with under 5 medals. And yet as hardened Irish Olympic fans, we know that is still a very realistic possibility

Edited June 16, 2024 by OlympicIRL

[mpjmcevoy 379]

8 hours ago, OlympicIRL said:

 

For sure, I think the casual Irish fan will have very unrealistic expectations this time for the following reasons:

 

• Athletics - as you say, they will think we can replicate the same success in the Olympics as we had in Europeans. I do think either one of the relays or Adeleke in the individual will come good, but 1 medal would be a heck of an achievement. Mageean in there too to help give us another outside chance, but that's all it is given how strong the W 1500m field is on the global stage.

 

• Rowing - the casual fan will have no idea just how disastrous this season has been for our rowers with injury and illness. Almost our entire squad has suffered in this regard. They will assume the men's LW double just need to turn up to win gold but that's far from the reality this year. I think they will medal but gold is going to be a big task this year. I still think they can do it but for what it's worth but my expectations have seriously dampened. The other Irish crews too are going in as huge underdogs given the turbulent season they have all endured.

 

• Boxing - the causal fan will assume we will walk away with more medals, even gold in boxing but there is every possibility we could leave with zero, losing a few quarter-finals. I think we will manage to get 1 or 2 medals but we are not favourites in many of the categories.

 

• Swimming - the casual fan will remember Wiffen won 2 golds at the World Championships earlier this year without fully grasping the fact that some of the big stars who beat him last year were absent. I think he will medal at the Olympics but he won't be the gold medal favourite that some could think he is just based off the result at the worlds.

 

• Gymnastics - Rhys McClenaghan is two-time back to back world champion in men's pommel so he must be set to win a medal in Paris. Yeah, it doesn't work like that at all and he has serious rivals to contend with not to mention the fact that one tiny error could cost you even a place in the final.

 

 

I think overall we have so many chances this year, it would be disastrous if we finished with under 5 medals. And yet as hardened Irish Olympic fans, we know that is still a very realistic possibility

I understand your pessimism only too well but I think you maybe 'do down' one or two of our chances to avoid heartbreak. The reality is, if Rhys hits two routines properl, Rhys wins a medal. He wasn't the double world champ in weak fields. Wiffen will defintely not be gold favourite, but his times, rather than his medals, still suggest strong medal chances. And I wold genuinely be astonishied if a couple of our women's boxers - mostly only two fights from a medal, don't bring it home. Rowing is a bit of an enigma, though I agree chances are not fantastic, but I think Adeleke is a warm favourite for some kind of metal, especially with syd and Femke giving the indy 400 the swerve, and the likeihood Ireland will put out a first choice mixed relay when other nations will not. If Rhasidat drops a relay, I suspect it will be the women's.

 

Outside that the men's rugby sevens cannot be discounted, not the showjumpers and eventers, not Rory McI (despite his brainfade tonight)