Judo IJF World Championships 2024

[copravolley 498]

Bellandi can`t fight vs Wagner and there will be no gold in Paris. What's more, she will face the Japanese in 1/4, because she will be 2nd in the ranking behind the German. There is a 90% chance that she will be eliminated in 1/4 and at most she try fight for bronze but if she is eliminated in 1/4 it will be difficult. In any case, the stronger Japanese woman and Wagner from Germany are beyond her reach, and the probability of beating them 2 in 1 day is: 0.0001%.

Edited May 22, 2024 by copravolley

[CCB 607]

25 minutes ago, copravolley said:

Bellandi can`t fight vs Wagner and there will be no gold in Paris. What's more, she will face the Japanese in 1/4, because she will be 2nd in the ranking behind the German. There is a 90% chance that she will be eliminated in 1/4 and at most she try fight for bronze but if she is eliminated in 1/4 it will be difficult. In any case, the stronger Japanese woman and Wagner from Germany are beyond her reach, and the probability of beating them 2 in 1 day is: 0.0001%.

I think Bellandi is number 1 on the Olympic ranking (she earns 1400 points today, Wagner 2000-500). She will be in the pool with number 8 Litvynenko (Ukraïne). Semis against Ma (China,4) and Malongo (Fra,5). Pretty good chances she will be in the final.

 

My calculations - quarter finals when all seeded judoka's reach the quarterfinal:

 

 Bellandi

 Litvynenko

 

 Ma

 Malonga

 

 Lanir

 Steenhuis

 

 Takayama

 Wagner

Edited May 22, 2024 by CCB

[copravolley 498]

2 minutes ago, CCB said:

I think Bellandi is number 1 on the Olympic ranking (she earns 1400 points today, Wagner 2000-500). She will be in the pool with number 8 Litvynenko (Ukraïne). Semis against Ma (China,4) and Malongo (Fra,5). Pretty good chances she will be in the final.

 

My calculations - quarter finals when all seeded judoka's reach the quarterfinal:

 

 Bellandi

 Litvynenko

 

 Ma

 Malonga

 

 Lanir

 Steenhuis

 

 Takayama

 Wagner

And why Wagner 2000-500?

[CCB 607]

Just now, copravolley said:

And why Wagner 2000-500?

Only the 6 best results count. Wagner already had 6 results in the last 12 months. Her weakest result (500 points) will removed.

[copravolley 498]

2 minutes ago, CCB said:

Only the 6 best results count. Wagner already had 6 results in the last 12 months. Her weakest result (500 points) will removed.

Ok, so Bellandi has a chance for silver if she beats the French in 1/2. However, she is not a favorite for gold. It's hard for a person who has never won gold at a major event to be the favorite and has a terrible record against his two main rivals. 

[copravolley 498]

7 minutes ago, CCB said:

Only the 6 best results count. Wagner already had 6 results in the last 12 months. Her weakest result (500 points) will removed.

Can you also make a similar bracket for category 90 men?

[Andry84 106]

5 minutes ago, copravolley said:

Ok, so Bellandi has a chance for silver if she beats the French in 1/2. However, she is not a favorite for gold. It's hard for a person who has never won gold at a major event to be the favorite and has a terrible record against his two main rivals. 

Being the favourite doesnt count anything ( if you arent Tsunoda or Abe) , Fabio Basile , Giulia Quintavalle , Maria Centracchio werent neither among the top 10 favourites and how did It finish???

[copravolley 498]

4 minutes ago, Andry84 said:

Being the favourite doesnt count anything ( if you arent Tsunoda or Abe) , Fabio Basile , Giulia Quintavalle , Maria Centracchio werent neither among the top 10 favourites and how did It finish???

She is a favorite for the medal but not for the gold. Someone here wrote earlier from Italy that Bellandi and Lombardo are favorites for gold in Paris. I don`t agree with that. The favorite could have been Riner at his peak.

[CCB 607]

11 minutes ago, copravolley said:

Can you also make a similar bracket for category 90 men?

I think the bracket will be like this (but especially in the -90 kg there are a lot of contenders outside the top 8 who can make the quarter finals):

 

 Bekauri

 Silva Morales

 

 Sherov

 Bobonov

 

 Murao

 Zgank

 

 Parlati

 Majdov

[phelps 8,286]

women's -70kg

 

Gold:  Margaux Pinot

Silver:  Marie-Eve Gahie

Bronze:  Shiho Tanaka &  (RUS) Madina Taimazova

 

Full Draw

https://www.ijf.org/competition/2787/draw?id_weight=12