Swimming 2024 Discussion Thread

[Topicmaster1010 4,438]

  On 1/21/2024 at 12:37 AM, Biathlonfan said:

Swimming Stans seem like the most misreable sport people possible ''this athlete should be higher,no this athlete should be higher'' Am i wrong to assume all of those types are the ones living in the basements 400 pounds scarfing nachos down,while pretending their experts ?

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This happens in every sport whenever some analyst posts their athlete/team rankings. Ultimately, these kinds of rankings are very subjective so there'll always be lot's of disagreement especially in the bottom part of the rankings where there's more variance.

 

Having said that, I've definitely noticed that the swimswam comments section can be very toxic compared to other platforms.

[Topicmaster1010 4,438]

  On 1/20/2024 at 11:49 PM, Topicmaster1010 said:

SwimSwam started to release their top 100 male and female swimmers for 2024.

 

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Okay, time for another long stats post.

 

Despite the great work that they've done, SwimSwam has often a few controversial rankings every year. Most of that can be attributed to American bias and a bigger emphasis on short course racing (especially in NCAA) than other people. I decided to attempt to build my own rankings model for women that factors in their versatility and how fast they were compared to the rest of their competition. There are a couple of flaws though. The first is that it doesn't factor in 2024 potential and two, it's based on FINA points which themselves are based on world records. As a result, certain events in which someone smashes the world record (50m butterfly) for example, shatters the points system. I'll be sure to make improvements next year if I do this again.

 

Below, you'll find a breakdown of SwimSwams rankings in sections of 10 swimmers each. I've listed my rankings  of each swimmer in brackets.

 

#100-99:

 

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100.  Wan Letian (132)

99.  Michelle Coleman (79)

98.  Ma Yonghui (119)

97.  Arina Surkova (88)

96.  Lee Eunji (212)

95.  Amelie Blocksidge (322 )

94.  Liu Yaxin (56)

93.  Isabelle Stadden (67)

92.  Wang Yichun (183)

91.  Abbey Harkin (115)

 

Looks like swimswam decided to stuff a bunch of Chinese swimmers near the end of the rankings. Not surprisingly, there's a lot of variance here.

 

First of all, let's address the #322 ranking of Blocksidge. She had times of 16:19.67 and 8:32.65 in the 1500m and 800m freestyles. While those are great times, they aren't quite good enough to final are be in the top 100 based on 2023 stats. However, given that she's 14 and dropped 53 seconds in one here, this ranking seems to be more than justified and she could even smash that ranking this year.

 

The more puzzling rankings are Lee Eunji and Wang Yichun. I'm guessing they are also ranked based on their potential but at 17, the room for improvement isn't as great you should think.

 

Wan Letian is a great sprint backstroker that can final in both the 50m and 100m backstroke but takes a hit here as the 50m backstroke isn't in the Olympics.

 

Now to discuss swimmers I feel are underranked.

 

Michelle Coleman had a great year and was a finalist in both the 50 and 100m freestyles at World Championships along with being a key relay member and that's without her euro short course performance being factored in. Should definitely be ranked at least 10 places higher imo although age could also be a factor here.

 

Isabelle Stadden is probably mostly unknown around here because she's a victim of the US backstroke depth. But she is a world class backstroker and has the ability to final in all 3 events.

 

And then Liu Yaxin is probably the most underrated here. She had the 20th ranked 200m freestyle time in 2023, was a finalist at worlds and is a key member of China's 4x200 free team. Also the 11th ranked 200m backstroker as well.

 

#90-81

 

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90.  Charlotte Bonnet (103)

89.  Abbie Wood (69)

88.  Letitia Sim (89)

87.  Louise Hansson (78)

86.  Lisa Angiolini (112)

85.  Runa Imai (128)

84.  Kiah Melverton (76)

83.  Beatriz Dizotti (221 )

82.  Sophie Hansson (91)

81.  Freya Anderson (72)

 

This section is much closer to my rankings. Beatriz Dizotti is the clear outlier here. She barely made the final in the 1500m freestyle event and doesn't have world class times in any other events. I don't see her as a top 100 swimmer. 

 

Angiolini is a great sprint breaststroker but as mentioned before, 50's aren't apart of the Olympics so she takes a hit.

 

Runa Imai is another puzzling ranking and the SwimSwam comments seem to agree. She's a world class swimmer in one event (200m breast) and at Worlds, she failed to make the final.

 

Abbie Wood's inflated ranking is probably a result of her 2:09.46 200 IM that she swim at British Championships (and then didn't swim it at worlds). That ranked 13th in the world in 2023. Aside from that, she's a key member of Great Britain's 4x100 and 4x200m relays.

 

#80-71

 

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80.  Olivia Wunsch (119 )

79.  Barbora Seemanova (47)

78.  Reona Aoki (65)

77.  Kotryna Teterevkova (77 )

76.  Moesha Johnson (158 )

75.  Nikolett Padar (82)

74.  Anastasia Gorbenko (61)

73.  Wang Xueer (87)

72.  Tess Howley (94)

71.  Gao Weizhong (125)

 

And this is where I start to hate my model a bit. If I had it my way, I would definitely rank Wunsch in the top 100 especially with her potential. A 24.59 50m freestyle and a 53.77 100m freestyle are amazing times for a 17 year old but unfortunately in those events, Sarah Sjoestroem has skewed the points system with her insane world records so that could be why she's ranked so low.

 

I don't really understand why Moesha Johnson is ranked so high. She ranked 24th in the 800m freestyle and 8th in 1500m freestyle (in which she missed the final at world championships). Probably not as low as 158 but definitely outside of the top 100.

 

Gao Weizhong is more interesting case. Her best event is the 1500m like Johnson (in which she ranked 9th) but she's only 15 so I guess there's still a lot of potential there.

 

Tess Howley's ranking also doesn't make sense to me and could be a result of American bias. She's elite at only the 200m butterfly in which she's far from being one of the top two Americans in the event (9th ranked American, 27th ranked worldwide).

 

Wang Xueer's best event is the 50m backstroke so again, she takes a hit there. But she's still good at the 100m backstroke so that gets her in the top 100.

 

Seemanova and Gorbenko both had great seasons and I think my model has them ranked higher than SwimSwam because of there versatility.

 

Even though Aoki didn't have a good performance at World Championships, she showed great times at the Japanese Nationals and Sette Colli in the 100m and 200m breaststroke events.

 

#70-61

 

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70.  Dakota Luther (150)

69.  Leah Smith (58)

68.  Olivia Smoliga (39)

67.  Jillian Cox (83)

66.  Yang Junxuan (35)

65.  Alex Shackell (62)

64.  Sara Franceschi (53)

63.  Eneli Jefimova (93)

62.  Ageha Tanigawa (168)

61.  Sydney Pickrem (37)

 

Lot of Americans in this section.

 

To be honest, I would personally have Jefimova higher but her ranking here falls a bit due to her 200 breaststroke not being that great.

 

Was a bit surprised to see Pickrem at 37th in my rankings but the fact is she went 2:08.61 in the 200m IM (ties a personal best) and also had great times in the 200m breaststroke and 400m IM so it sort of makes sense.

 

Yang Junxuan is yet another underrated Chinese swimmer here. She has elite times in both the 100m and 200m freestyles and is capable of winning relay medals.

 

Dakota Luther is another American 200m butterfly specialist flirting with being top 2 in the country so I would have her lower. Would also have Jillian Cox a bit lower.

 

Tanigawa as of now is only really relevant in the 400m IM and didn't make the World championship final (although she won silver at Asian Games) so I would have her out of the top 100 for now.

 

 

 

[dullard 721]

So your method is purely statistical based on FINA points? So doesn't really consider relay potential? That might explain some of the differences especially when you consider that SwimSwam tends to weight relay potential quite heavily.

[dullard 721]

Sjostrom is looking like she'll be unbeatable in the 50 free again this year after clocking a scorching 23.87 at a meet in Luxembourg this weekend.

[dullard 721]

After some talk last year at Fukuoka that she'll swim the 50 free and 100 free and even contemplating the 100 fly Sjostrom has said in the Swedish media that aside from relays she'll only be swimming the 50 free in Paris. 

 

https://www.dn.se/sport/bortvalda-grenen-tillbaka-funderar-pa-hur-jag-tankte/

 

 

[Topicmaster1010 4,438]

  On 2/8/2024 at 5:41 AM, dullard said:

After some talk last year at Fukuoka that she'll swim the 50 free and 100 free and even contemplating the 100 fly Sjostrom has said in the Swedish media that aside from relays she'll only be swimming the 50 free in Paris. 

 

https://www.dn.se/sport/bortvalda-grenen-tillbaka-funderar-pa-hur-jag-tankte/

 

 

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While I understand her decision, it's still disappointing from a fan perspective.

 

On another note, with no Sjoestroem and with how hard the 100 free OQT is, we might have less than 20 qualifiers in the event 

[Olympian1010 8,068]

  On 2/8/2024 at 9:46 PM, Topicmaster1010 said:

While I understand her decision, it's still disappointing from a fan perspective.

 

On another note, with no Sjoestroem and with how hard the 100 free OQT is, we might have less than 20 qualifiers in the event 

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100m Free should at least have a good amount of the universality swimmers, so hopefully it won't be comical (like the women's 200m IM in Tokyo).

[Dragon 1,892]

 Oh Canada...

[dullard 721]

Look at what just happened in Florida!!!

 

[PHI2019 274]

  On 2/8/2024 at 10:58 PM, Olympian1010 said:

100m Free should at least have a good amount of the universality swimmers, so hopefully it won't be comical (like the women's 200m IM in Tokyo).

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I think you are referring to the women’s 200 meters butterfly where 16 swimmers swam in the heats and all of them qualified for the semifinals