Team GB medal hopes - Swimming

[RussB 189]

Hi all - unsure of the interest but curious to get some debate on hopes/predictions for Paris 2024 for individual sports for Team GB. In this thread swimming. Clearly long way to go with trials not until April next year, but as things stand how do we feel things are shaping ahead of Paris?

 

My 2 cents thoughts:

Gold medal chances: 1) 4x200m free relay Men (WR could go), 2) 200m free (Richards/Guy/Scott/Dean take your pick), 3) 4x100m Free relay men (if they qualify in Doha), Ben Proud 50m free

Minor medals: Abbie Wood 200 IM, Luke Greenbank 200m Back, Peaty 100m breast (I'm not sure he can regain where he was), mixed 4x100m medley relay, Duncan Scott 200 IM

Outside long shot medal chances: Katie Shanaghan (400m IM), Amelie Blocksidge 1500m (OK I might be delusional but this girl is a generational talent and her improvement at the moment is incredible), mens 4x100m medley relay, Medi Harris 200m back(?), Freya Anderson 200m free(?) [bronze chance with Titmus and Summer in there]

 

I'm sure I'm missing a few chances...let me know!

 

[mpjmcevoy 377]

50 minutes ago, RussB said:

Hi all - unsure of the interest but curious to get some debate on hopes/predictions for Paris 2024 for individual sports for Team GB. In this thread swimming. Clearly long way to go with trials not until April next year, but as things stand how do we feel things are shaping ahead of Paris?

 

My 2 cents thoughts:

Gold medal chances: 1) 4x200m free relay Men (WR could go), 2) 200m free (Richards/Guy/Scott/Dean take your pick), 3) 4x100m Free relay men (if they qualify in Doha), Ben Proud 50m free

Minor medals: Abbie Wood 200 IM, Luke Greenbank 200m Back, Peaty 100m breast (I'm not sure he can regain where he was), mixed 4x100m medley relay, Duncan Scott 200 IM

Outside long shot medal chances: Katie Shanaghan (400m IM), Amelie Blocksidge 1500m (OK I might be delusional but this girl is a generational talent and her improvement at the moment is incredible), mens 4x100m medley relay, Medi Harris 200m back(?), Freya Anderson 200m free(?) [bronze chance with Titmus and Summer in there]

 

I'm sure I'm missing a few chances...let me know!

 

Hi Russ

 

I post with two hats on,  and . Politically, and culturally, I'm more , but I retain a strong affinity in sport with , and especially . So...

 

For  it's all about Dan Wiffen, notwithstanding we have a genuinely decent squad these days (must not overlook Mona and Ellen), but Dan is an absolute bolter for us - he's not gold medal favourite, but he's definitely a gold medal chance. For those of us who recall Atlanta, it would be a blessed relief if Dan picked up a medal, especially a gold.

 

Now, for 

 

A huge amount depends on Peaty. Without Peaty, we have some great chances. With Peaty in anything like his old form, things go mega in 3 further events.

 

Gold Chances:

 

50m : Proud. He's due an Olympic medal, but he's capable of gold.

 

200m : It doesn't really look like Popovici is coming back in his World champs form, and Matt R winning the Euro Short Course was a bit of a statement. The reigning Olympic champ has been very very good over the three years since, but not really quite hit that peak - and he is in a field of Brits that is so stacked it makes other 4 x 200 relay teams wince - indeed, the last thing they need is Jimmy Guy of all people apparently rediscovering his 2015 mojo - indeed, with the rise of Jacob Peters in the 100 fly, Jimmy's eggs may all end up in the 200 free basket. Which ever 2 survive trials will be medal hopes, but Matt R is probably the gold medal hope.

 

4 x 200m : speaking of which, this has to be GB's biggest chance of a gold. If the top four come in any sort of shape...The Reigning World Champ, who is also the euro SC champ, the reigning Olympic champ, who's also World silver and basically has won a global medal every time he's dived in, the reigning Commonwealth Champ, who beat the Olympic champ, having won silver at the Olympics, and the 2015 World Champ who has won just the six global relay golds

 

100 breast : All depends on Peaty. He may be done. He may be about to do something spectacular. and the truth is we just don't know.

 

200 IM. Duncan Scott is a machine, but a silver machine. This time I don't forsee him having as packed a schedule as in recent years - he could very well not make 200 free, and not be needed for all of the 4 x 100 free relay

. He may even get a rest for the 4 x 200 relay heats. If all his stars align, I think he can do the big G in 200IM. Won't mean he will. but he could.

 

4 x 100 freestyle - not as sure as the 4 x 200 despite strong chance of many of the same personnel, but if Burrus and Whittle come in hot, it's possible - a Proud heat swim is unlikely but not out of the question

 

4 x 100 medley. All on Peaty, again. GBR have increasing quality options on backstroke and fly, but it all comes down to Peaty - if he's flying, it's on like donkey kong.

 

4 x 100 mixed medley. Arguably the better medley if Peaty is fit. Big if. Without him, nae chance. TeamGB must remember golden rule of mixed medley - "You'll only get joy if breaststroke's a boy" - using a woman at breaststroke costs an extra 2 1/2 seconds compared to freestyle, and 1 1/2 compared to back or fly - it is insurmountable, imho.  Again, feels like a FMMF order, and GB have better options - or at least more options - in 2024 than they did in 2021 on F back and M fly

 

Medal chances

 

You have to love bolters; that guy or gal you hardly considered who comes through in the key six months like gangbusters. Sure. it's easier to understand if they come through like Scott, Guy, Dean, Greenbank, Anderson, Richards etc from precocious junior careers, but unpredictability is fun

 

That aside, I see genuine, though not necessarily huge, chances of medals in

M 100 fr

M 200 bk

M 100 fl

M 400 IM

W 4 x 200 fr R

W 4 x 100 medley R

W 50m fr

W 100 bk

W 200 bk

W 200 IM

W 400 IM

W 200 IM

[RussB 189]

thanks for your considered feedback MPJM! Wiffen has really impressed me, and it feels to me like whoever is on form in Paris could clean sweep across the 400m-800m-1500m triple, given his WR in the short course last week, there are seemingly multiple medals potentially for Dan. Does Mona have a genuine chance in the breaststroke? If so, what would be the better distance for her?

 

Britain's hopes really vary with the one factor that is Peaty..I'd love to think he can be good enough to drag those relays into contention but the time drops required in 9 months are significant. He has the rabbit to chase with Qin so let's see what he can do. For the relays UK could really do with a backstroker coming out of the pack in the women's and men's side over 100m. I imagine Medi Harris and Luke Greenbank will be our top performers, although I feel both will be stronger over 200m.

 

Jacob Peters emergence will give Jimmy a break from all the fly duty in the relays which helps, although I don't see him getting near individual medals. Duncan Scott getting close to Marchand would be amazing over 200 IM..maybe a lighter schedule will help, Duncan may not do either 100m or 200m freestyle in Paris. Qualifying for the 200m free is going to be ridiculous.

 

I see you mention the W 4x2 & 4x1 medley relays. I think we are still lacking the firepower to get near to AUS, USA, CHINA before even considering FRA ITA. I'd love to be proved wrong though. Young Eva Okoro (sprinter for free and fly) is dropping eye popping time over in Ontario at the moment and could be an addition to the 100m relays to help Hopkin/Anderson/Harris/Wood etc.

 

Abbie Wood is one i would love to get an individual medal, so many close near misses.

 

 

[TeamGB 216]

As we are heading into Doha, where my hopes will likely be affirmed or destroyed,

I thought I would give my 2 cents on what Paris could hold for British Swimming.

 

Men’s 50m freestyle - Ben Proud is definately a contender having won Gold in 2022 and Bronze in 2023. Currently, I think Mcevoy has put gold out of reach, but he certainly has the ability to throw it away. (100m freestyle Rio 2016). Lewis Burras’ PB would have got 4th in Fukuoka (0.1 off bronze), so he is an outside chance for a medal, but fairly unlikely.

 

Men’s 100m freestyle - This event is stacked, and there are around 10 athletes who could win. Matt Richards is definately up there, although it would require several off form swims from the likes of Chalmers, Popovici, Pan and Alexy. 

 

Men’s 200m freestyle - If Popovici is in form then we can say goodbye to the gold medal, if not, then we have a chance of another 1-2. I think that the domestic battle will help them push each other, and I am hopeful that we might see a Brit under 1:44.

 

Men’s 400-1500m freestyle - With the likes of Wiffen, Hafanoui, Finke, Short, Paltrinieri and Wellbrock the won’t be a British distance medal in Paris. The only way is that if Pardoe doubles up, although that is a long shot and even if he does it would still be incredibly tough.

 

Men’s fly- The emergence of Peters does give Guy a rest, but I think medal chances are slim to none. A prime Guy could challenge, especially without Milak and Dressel, but I think Jimmy will probably focus more on the 200m free this year. I did hear that Richards wanted to swim some fly this year, so you never know.

 

Men’s Backstroke - Greenbank looked good in Otopeni, so he can definately challenge for a medal. With the absence of Rylov and Kolesnikov the 200m will be a bit more open this year. Ollie Morgan might be able to drop enough to get into the final this time, and maybe even the Back leg on the medley relay, but a medal seems too much of a stretch.

 

Men’s Breaststroke - Peaty may not be in the form he once was, but I think he can still challenge for a medal. Wilby on the other hand seems to be in decline from his 2019 silver. The strength in the 200m means it is unlikely for a medal, but you never know.

 

Men’s IM - Scott and Dean can certainly challenge in the 200m, but I think Marchand and Shun are too good for gold to be an option. Shun is inconsistent so the same podium from Fukuoka could be on the cards. I doubt Scott will swim the 400m, but the reemergence of Litchfield to the squad could be a small medal chance, but only for bronze, and it requires a lot of misfires by other swimmers for this to happen.

 

Men’s free Relays- The 4x200 has to be the favourite by far, and the 4x100 should contend if they qualify. There are 4 nations who could all swim under 3:10 on their day, so it could be tough.

 

Men’s Medley Relay- This really depends on Adam wether we can challenge for Gold, a mid 58 Adam could challenge for Bronze.

 

Womens 50-200m freestyle - Anna may contend for a medal in the ‘splash and dash’ but I think Sjoestrom already has gold. There are several swimmers ahead of her but you never know. Anna and Freya both PB’ed in the 100m in Otopeni but I think that like the men’s the global strength in depth is too much for them. Freya could sneak a bronze in the 200m but she would need to drop significantly. 

 

Womens 400-1500m Freestyle- To say our chances in slim is an understatement. Blocksidge has dropped a lot this year, but I think it might be tough for her to qualify.

 

Women’s fly - No chances in the 100m, but Laura Stephens could medal in the 200m, It is an outside chance, but there pressure of an olympic final can do strange things, especially in such a taxing event.

 

Women’s Backstroke - Regan and Kaylee are miles above everyone else so Gold and silver have already gone. If Kathleen Dawson returns to form she could sneak a bronze but I doubt it. In the 200m, Medi and Katie could medal but again, I’m not confident.

 

Women’s Breaststroke - Since Molly retirement, there have been no medal contending British Breaststrokers,

 

Women’s IM - Abbie Wood was so close in Tokyo, but I feel like the field has moved away since then. Although there is a chance Mcintosh swims the 800m free instead of the 200m IM, and as Abbie may have had a lighter schedule than some other swimmer( the race is on the last day), you can never say never. In the 400, Freya is about 4 seconds of bronze, but those time drops arent impossible.

 

Women’s relays - The 4x100 and 4x200m were both 4th in Fukuoka, but DQs are always possible. The Women’s medley squandered a huge chance in Tokyo, and I’m not even confident if they can qualify by British Swimmings standards.

 

Mixed Medley Relay - I think the Chinese are too strong in this event but a medal could be on the cards depending on Adam.

 

Overall, I am fairly confident heading into Paris, and there is a Chance we improve on Tokyo, however, it have a sinking feeling that we will beat out Rio record of the most 4th places.

 

Feel free to comment on my judgements, as I’m sure im being a bit too optimistic.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2024 by TeamGB

[RussB 189]

I'm fascinated by how we do in Doha, in particular what would be very encouraging would be:

 - Peaty dropping time on the series races last year and taking the gold in absence of Qin (I think most would agree his degree of improvement this year will determine the success of the two medley relays + his individual in Paris)

- Luke Greenbank's resurgence over 200m back [I was hugely impressed with his return to form at Euro SC, a medal in Paris in the individual is definitely a possibility]

- Female relays...can we get them all qualified at trials? Breaststroke remains a weakness on the medley relay, but on the freestyle front the 4x200m girls are beginning to build a solid looking team - Freya A, Abbie, Freya C & possibly Lucy Hope / Medi. Medi H isn't swimming individual events in Doha, and we don't have a breaststroke entry.

- Are Katie S and Freya C in early season form to contend for a medal in Paris? 200m back / 400 IM considerations for both

 - Can Duncan get close to Marchand in the 200IM..I'd love it if the Silver guru could upgrade to gold in Paris.

 

[Rafa Maciel 1,709]

The only race that really matters this week is the men's 4x100m relay - we need the team to post a time that will put them in to the top 16 and get the quota. Anything beyond that will be regarded as a bonus by British Swimming. 

[mpjmcevoy 377]

2 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

The only race that really matters this week is the men's 4x100m relay - we need the team to post a time that will put them in to the top 16 and get the quota. Anything beyond that will be regarded as a bonus by British Swimming. 

This entire fortnight is centered on quotas - and the first week has been a humdinger, almost every boat came in. They were never likely to get the WP one, frankly it was a major success just to qualify for here, and to beat one team. Otherwise it's been an enormous success. They'll want to get the men's 4 x 100 over the line, most of the others already look safe, and frankly are more likely to miss out through British Swimming's own criteria

[RussB 189]

Exactly. Yes the 4x100 is vital to qualify, but this is guaranteed as long as they don’t false start or DQ.

 

I actually think they will win the 4x100 with the team of whittle, Dean, Scott and richards.

 

Looking forward to the entire meet !

[RussB 189]

On some other good news on GB front, 14 yr old Amelie Blocksidge has just recorded a new PB in the 1500m to go 3rd fastest British woman of all time in a 16m 10.04 clocking at Lancashire county champs.

 

Amelie looks set to really attack the 16m 01 nomination time at British trials in 6 weeks.

[RussB 189]

GB go ultra safe with takeovers in the 4x1 and qualify for the final 2nd in their heat behind Italy in a 3:13:96 which should be enough to qualify for Paris.