Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[OlympicsFan 859]

14 hours ago, Jinzha said:

With just over 100 days to go I decided to do another medal prediction, but this time on a day to day basis. 

 

Day 1 Saturday 27 July (0-1 medals)

Road cycling: Ellen van Dijk (W time trial)

 

Day 2 Sunday 28 July (0-2 medals)

Mountain bike: Puck Pieterse (W cross country)

Swimming: Arno Kamminga or Caspar Corbeau (M 100m breast)

 

Day 3 Monday 29 July (0-1 medals)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 100m breast)

 

Day 4 Tuesday 30 July (0-1 medals)

Judo: Joanne van Lieshout (W -63kg)

 

Day 5 Wednesday 31 July (3-5 medals)

Judo: Sanne van Dijke (W -70kg)

Rowing: M4x and W4x

Swimming: Marrit Steenbergen (W 100m free) and Caspar Corbeau (M 200m breast)

 

Day 6 Thursday 1 August (4-7 medals)

Judo: Michael Korrel (M -100kg) and Guusje Steenhuis (W -78kg)

Rowing: M2x and W4-

Sailing: Duetz/Van Aanholt (W skiff) and Van de Werken/Lambriex (M skiff)

Swimming: Tes Schouten (W 200m breast)

 

Day 7 Friday 2 August (2-5 medals)

Archery: Mixed team

BMX racing: Niek Kimmann or Laura Smulders

Judo: Marit Kamps (W +78kg)

Rowing: W2-

Sailing: Luc van Opzeeland (M IQFoil)

 

Day 8 Saturday 3 August (3-5 medals)

Athletics: Mixed 4x400m relay

Road cycling: Mathieu van der Poel (M road race)

Rowing: W1x, M1x and M8-

 

Day 9 Sunday 4 August (0-2 medals)

Equestrian: Dinja van Liere (dressage)

Road cycling: Lorena Wiebes or Demi Vollering (W road race)

 

Day 10 Monday 5 August (0-1 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W 5000m?)

 

Day 11 Tuesday 6 August (1-2 medals)

Sailing: Marit Bouwmeester (W dinghy)

Track Cycling: M team sprint

 

Day 12 Wednesday 7 August (0-1 medals)

Sailing: Laila van der Meer / Bjarne Bouwer (mixed multihull)

 

Day 13 Thursday 8 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Femke Bol (W 400mH)

Hockey: Men’s team

Swimming: Sharon van Rouwendaal (W 10 km open water)

Track cycling: Hetty van der Wouw (W Keirin)

 

Day 14 Friday 9 August (2-4 medals)

Athletics: Lieke Klaver (W 400m)

Breaking: India Sardjoe (W breaking)

Hockey: Women’s team

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M sprint)

 

Day 15 Saturday 10 August (1-3 medals)

Athletics: Women’s 4x400m relay and Abdi Nageeye (M marathon)

Water polo: Women’s team

 

Day 16 Sunday 11 August (1-2 medals)

Athletics: Sifan Hassan (W marathon??)

Track Cycling: Harrie Lavreysen (M keirin)

 

Any day (0-2 medals)

Surprise medals: preferrably Niels Laros (M 1500m) and W handball or volleyball team (what can I say, the more surprising the better)

 

Total prediction (19-47 medals)

+/- 10 golds

+/- 11 silvers

+/- 12 bronze

 

I feel like the day-by-day version made the numbers too optimistic. Some names I'm thinking more like 'one out of these 4 judoka's will probably win a medal', but it shows as a medal chances on 4 days, instead of just 1 expected medal.

Overall I'm a bit more optimistic than the 25 medals I predicted last time, I'll say 30 medals this time!

2 medals for Corbeau seems borderline insane. I think 2 medals in the 4 breaststroke events seems realistic. The only medal favorite is Schouten in the 200 breast and even she could very well end up without a medal (Chikunova (if she competes after all), Schoenmaker, Douglass).

[OlympicsFan 859]

14 hours ago, copravolley said:

I think that: Italy, The Netherlands and Germany will be close to each other on medal table, just like in Tokio 2021. On the other hand, France will get a much better result because of being the host team.

1) Depends on how you sort the medal table.

2) Depends on what you mean with „close“.

[OlympicsFan 859]

9 hours ago, Josh said:

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for
Day 1

20:55: Swimming - Women’s 400m Freestyle Final - Summer McIntosh (Silver)

21:37: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay Final - (Bronze)

 

Day 2

20:45: Swimming - Women’s 100m Butterfly Final - Maggie MacNeil (Silver)

 

Day 3

17:18-17:38: Judo - Women’s 57kg - Christa Deguchi (Gold)

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 400m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

 

Bronze in the women’s 200m freestyle if she chooses to do the double. She’ll have almost an hour and a half between both so it seems doable (but she’s also probably going to be swimming a rigorous schedule so maybe she’ll skip it)

 

Day 4

17:18-17:38: Judo - Men’s 81kg - Francois Gauthier-Drapeau (Bronze)

17:49-18:09: Judo - Women’s 63kg - Catherine Beauchemin Pinard (Silver)

20:57: Swimming - Women’s 100m Backstroke - Kylie Masse (Bronze)

 

Day 5

20:36: Swimming - Men’s 200m Butterfly Final - Illya Kharun (Silver, behind Milak)

 

Day 6

20:30: Swimming - Women’s 200m Butterfly Final - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

 

Day 8

15:30: Artistic Gymnastics - Men’s Floor - Felix Dolci (Bronze)

20:30: Swimming - Men’s 100m Butterfly Final - Josh Liendo (Bronze)

20:59: Swimming - Women’s 200m Individual Medley - Summer McIntosh (Gold)

21:45: Athletics - Men’s Decathlon - Pierce LePage (Gold)

 

Day 9

19:35: Swimming - Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay Final (Bronze)

20:30: Athletics - Men’s Hammer Throw Final - Ethan Katzberg (Silver)

 

Day 10

21:00/22:05: 3x3 Basketball - Women’s Tournament Medal Matches (Gold)

 

Day 11

20:00: Athletics - Women’s Hammer Throw Final - Camryn Rogers (Bronze)

 

Day 12

20:30: Athletics - Men’s 200m Final - Andre DeGrasse (Silver)

 

Day 13

15:00: Weightlifting - Women’s 59kg - Maude Charron (Bronze)

19:27: Track Cycling - Men’s Omnium - Dylan Bibic (Silver)

19:40: Athletics - Women’s Shot Put Final - Sarah Mitton (Bronze)

19:45: Athletics - Men’s 4x100m Relay Final - Canada (Bronze)

21:00: Beach Volleyball - Women’s Bronze Medal Match - Melissa Humana-Parades/Brandie Wilkerson (Bronze)

21:07: Taekwondo - Women’s 57kg Bronze Medal Match - Skylar Park (Bronze)

 

Day 14

11:00: Basketball - Men’s Bronze Medal Game - Canada (Bronze)

13:50: Canoe Sprint - Women’s C1-200m - Katie Vincent (Bronze)

19:25: Athletics - Men’s 800m Final - Marco Arop (Gold)

21:23: Breaking - B-Boys - Phil Wizard (Gold)

22:34: Boxing - Women’s 75kg Gold Medal Bout - Tammara Thibeault (Gold)

 

 

Left off some other medal chances, think at least one other name/team that I haven’t mentioned will make the podium. Still very optimistic with this prediction considering our best ever result is 24 medals at Tokyo (I picked 30 events for Canada to win medals in) but we have a talent in McIntosh now. 

10 medals in swimming?

 

Masse: She isn’t a medal favorite (behind Smith, McKeown and the 2nd American), but we will see.

Women‘s 400 free relay: They aren’t a medal favorite (behind Australia, USA and China), but we will see.

 

Kharun: I see at least Milak, Marchand and Honda ahead of him, but he might end up on the podium.

Liendo: He could win gold or end up without a medal. Dressel, Milak, Ponti, Grousset and Temple are all at least as

likely as him to win a medal.

 

Women‘s medley relay: Australia and the U.S. are pretty much a lock for gold and silver. Canada should battle with China for bronze.

 

4 medals (Women‘s 400 free, women’s 100/200 fly and women’s 400 IM) should be the minimum. 7 or 8 medals seem like a realistic goal.

[Josh 10,657]

3 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

10 medals in swimming?

 

Masse: She isn’t a medal favorite (behind Smith, McKeown and the 2nd American), but we will see.

Women‘s 400 free relay: They aren’t a medal favorite (behind Australia, USA and China), but we will see.

 

Kharun: I see at least Milak, Marchand and Honda ahead of him, but he might end up on the podium.

Liendo: He could win gold or end up without a medal. Dressel, Milak, Ponti, Grousset and Temple are all at least as

likely as him to win a medal.

 

Women‘s medley relay: Australia and the U.S. are pretty much a lock for gold and silver. Canada should battle with China for bronze.

 

4 medals (Women‘s 400 free, women’s 100/200 fly and women’s 400 IM) should be the minimum. 7 or 8 medals seem like a realistic goal.

Masse: Not right now, no, but her early season times are very promising (58.93/58:80 in the 100m backstroke, along with 27.23 in the 50m backstroke and 2:08.44 in the 200m backstroke) for someone who usually only swims at her best during the big meets. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her put up a 58 low (or 57 low) at Trials/the Olympics after struggling with her form in the last couple of years. 
 

Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay: True, but they’re in contention. Let’s see what happens at the Canadian Olympic Trials though. 
 

Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay: United States is the favourite, but please explain to me how Australia is a lock for gold. Unless they find a breaststroker between now and Paris, they might even come under pressure for silver by Canada (quite unlikely, but it’s possible if Angus/LePage/Branton are in 1:05 low form and McKeown is on the breaststroke leg splitting 1:07). We have improved on our breaststroke leg, and Taylor Ruck has had a career resurgence which gives us a good freestyle leg. That along with a good butterfly leg (Maggie MacNeil) and a good backstroke leg (Masse) puts us above China IMO. All legs are close except backstroke (I’d say breaststroke and maybe freestyle have the advantage for China right now), which should separate the two.

[gucardn 64]

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for   

 

(These are very possible medals! I believe that about 8 - 10 of these are not confirmed, added to about three that were not expected! I would bet 05 golds and 22 in total)

 

Day 1

Swimming - Men’s 400m Freestyle Final - Guilherme Costa - (Bronze) 

 

Day 2

Skateboarding  - Women's Street - Rayssa Leal - (Gold)

 

Day 3

Judo - Men’s 73kg - Daniel Cargnin - (Bronze)

Judo - Women’s 57kg - Rafaela Silva - (Bronze)

 

Day 4

Gymnastics - Women's team all-around - (Bronze)

 

Day 5

Surfing - Men's Shortboard - Gabriel Medina - (Gold)

Surfing - Women's Shortboard - Tatiana Weston-Webb (Silver)

 

Day 6

Judo - Women’s -78kg - Mayra Aguiar - (Gold)

Gymnastics - Women's Individual all-around - Rebeca Andrade - (Silver)

Sailing - Women's 49erFX - Martine Grael & Kahena Kunza - (Bronze)

 

Day 7

Judo - Women’s +78kg - Beatriz Souza - (Bronze)

Equestrian - Team jumping - (Bronze)

 

Day 8

Gymnastics - Women's Vault - Rebeca Andrade -  (Gold)

 

Day 9

Archery - Men's individual - Marcus D'Almeida -  (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Floor - Rebeca Andrade  - (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Floor - Flávia Saraiva -  (Bronze)

Tennis - Women's Doubles - Luisa Stefani & Beatriz Haddad Maia (Bronze)

 

Day 10

Swimming - Women’s 10km Open Water - Ana Marcela Cunha - (Silver)

Canoeing - Women's KX-1 - Ana Sátila Vargas (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Balance Beam - Rebeca Andrade  - (Bronze)

 

Day 11

Boxing - Women's 60kg - Beatriz Ferreira -  (Gold)

Boxing - Women's 66kg - Barbara Santos - (Bronze)

 

Day 12

Boxing - Women's 57kg - Jucielen Romeo - (Bronze)

 

Day 13

Beach Volleyball - Women’s - Duda & Ana Patrícia - (Gold)

 

Day 14

Athletics - Men's 400 m Hurdles - Alisson dos Santos - (Bronze)

Boxing - Men's 92kg -Keno Machado - (Silver)

 

Day 15

Canoeing - Men's C1-1000 - Isaquias Queiroz (Gold)

Volleyball - Women's Tournment -  (Bronze)

 

Day 16

Volleyball - Men's Tournment - (Gold)

Edited April 15 by gucardn

[OlympicsFan 859]

3 hours ago, Josh said:

Masse: Not right now, no, but her early season times are very promising (58.93/58:80 in the 100m backstroke, along with 27.23 in the 50m backstroke and 2:08.44 in the 200m backstroke) for someone who usually only swims at her best during the big meets. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her put up a 58 low (or 57 low) at Trials/the Olympics after struggling with her form in the last couple of years. 
 

Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay: True, but they’re in contention. Let’s see what happens at the Canadian Olympic Trials though. 
 

Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay: United States is the favourite, but please explain to me how Australia is a lock for gold. Unless they find a breaststroker between now and Paris, they might even come under pressure for silver by Canada (quite unlikely, but it’s possible if Angus/LePage/Branton are in 1:05 low form and McKeown is on the breaststroke leg splitting 1:07). We have improved on our breaststroke leg, and Taylor Ruck has had a career resurgence which gives us a good freestyle leg. That along with a good butterfly leg (Maggie MacNeil) and a good backstroke leg (Masse) puts us above China IMO. All legs are close except backstroke (I’d say breaststroke and maybe freestyle have the advantage for China right now), which should separate the two.

I said that Australia and the U.S. are a lock for gold and silver (not in that order). USA is the favorite for gold. 
 

1) Australia is clearly faster than Canada (combined almost 2 seconds) on backstroke and freestyle, about equal on butterfly and at most a second behind on breaststroke.

2) Please look up the Chinese breaststroke leg …

China is about equal on butterfly, clearly faster on breaststroke, about equal on freestyle and maybe (half) a second slower on backstroke. Right now there is absolutely no basis to say that the breaststroke leg is close. At the moment it looks like a coin toss. Canada is definitely much closer to China than to Australia.

Edited April 15 by OlympicsFan

[Josh 10,657]

2 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

I said that Australia and the U.S. are a lock for gold and silver (not in that order). USA is the favorite for gold. 
 

1) Australia is clearly faster than Canada (combined almost 2 seconds) on backstroke and freestyle, about equal on butterfly and at most a second behind on breaststroke.

2) Please look up the Chinese breaststroke leg …

China is about equal on butterfly, clearly faster on breaststroke, about equal on freestyle and maybe (half) a second slower on backstroke. Right now there is absolutely no basis to say that the breaststroke leg is close. At the moment it looks like a coin toss. Canada is definitely much closer to China than to Australia.

My mistake then, I misread that part of it. 
 

1. Agree about Australia being clearly faster on the freestyle leg, and equal on the butterfly leg. For backstroke, it depends on what time Masse can produce at Trials but if she’s in 58 low form around half a second. For breaststroke, it depends again on what times Branton/Angus/LePage/Wog can produce. 1:05 mid combined with a 1:07 low from McKeown (assuming she swims the breaststroke leg for Australia) and MacNeil outsplitting McKeon by a couple of tenths could be enough to get it done. Wouldn’t bet on it happening though.
 

2. Ok true, maybe I forgot about Tang who was 1:05.29 at this years Worlds, but with the rapid improvement that our breaststrokers have been on I’m thinking they’ll close the gap to within a few tenths. Plus they’ve been putting some decent times recently while not being fully tapered? My prediction is also under the assumption that Masse will be back at her best come Trials and eventually the Olympics (as indicated by her early season times), and Masse is a way faster backstroker (more than half a second faster) than Letian/Xueer if they’re all swimming near their best.

Edited April 15 by Josh

[Josh 10,657]

2 hours ago, gucardn said:

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for   

 

(These are very possible medals! I believe that about 8 - 10 of these are not confirmed, added to about three that were not expected! I would bet 05 golds and 22 in total)

 

Day 1

Swimming - Men’s 400m Freestyle Final - Guilherme Costa - (Bronze) 

 

Day 2

Skateboarding  - Women's Street - Rayssa Leal - (Gold)

 

Day 3

Judo - Men’s 73kg - Daniel Cargnin - (Bronze)

Judo - Women’s 57kg - Rafaela Silva - (Bronze)

 

Day 4

Gymnastics - Women's team all-around - (Bronze)

 

Day 5

Surfing - Men's Shortboard - Gabriel Medina - (Gold)

Surfing - Women's Shortboard - Tatiana Weston-Webb (Silver)

 

Day 6

Judo - Women’s -78kg - Mayra Aguiar - (Gold)

Gymnastics - Women's Individual all-around - Rebeca Andrade - (Silver)

Sailing - Women's 49erFX - Martine Grael & Kahena Kunza - (Bronze)

 

Day 7

Judo - Women’s +78kg - Beatriz Souza - (Bronze)

Equestrian - Team jumping - (Bronze)

 

Day 8

Gymnastics - Women's Vault - Rebeca Andrade -  (Gold)

 

Day 9

Archery - Men's individual - Marcus D'Almeida -  (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Floor - Rebeca Andrade  - (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Floor - Flávia Saraiva -  (Bronze)

Tennis - Women's Doubles - Luisa Stefani & Beatriz Haddad Maia (Bronze)

 

Day 10

Swimming - Women’s 10km Open Water - Ana Marcela Cunha - (Silver)

Canoeing - Women's KX-1 - Ana Sátila Vargas (Silver)

Gymnastics - Women's Balance Beam - Rebeca Andrade  - (Bronze)

 

Day 11

Boxing - Women's 60kg - Beatriz Ferreira -  (Gold)

Boxing - Women's 66kg - Barbara Santos - (Bronze)

 

Day 12

Boxing - Women's 57kg - Jucielen Romeo - (Bronze)

 

Day 13

Beach Volleyball - Women’s - Duda & Ana Patrícia - (Gold)

 

Day 14

Athletics - Men's 400 m Hurdles - Alisson dos Santos - (Bronze)

Boxing - Men's 92kg -Keno Machado - (Silver)

 

Day 15

Canoeing - Men's C1-1000 - Isaquias Queiroz (Gold)

Volleyball - Women's Tournment -  (Bronze)

 

Day 16

Volleyball - Men's Tournment - (Gold)

I’m glad you like my formatting 

[gucardn 64]

56 minutes ago, Josh said:

I’m glad you like my formatting 

The better one! 

[vinipereira 3,250]

3 hours ago, gucardn said:

Approaching 100 days to go, my predictions for   

 

(These are very possible medals! I believe that about 8 - 10 of these are not confirmed, added to about three that were not expected! I would bet 05 golds and 22 in total)

That would be great but I think it's a bit on the optimistic side (especially Judo, Gymnastics and Boxing). I think Brazil will have a similar performance to London 2012.