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Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024


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12 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

I think there are 2 quota reallocations on the cards on the men's side - Israel and Suriname don't have a second eligible rider and so they will have to reject the quota. Assuming that is the case, I'd project that :HUN and :KAZ will get an individual quota for sprint/keirin. 

 

On the women's side, there is only 1 quota which should be subject to reallocation - Italy don't have an eligible second rider in the keirin/sprint behind Miriam Vece. In the most likely scenario, Italy will probably reject the keirin quota resulting in :ESP picking up the spot for sprint/keirin.

Is there any particular reason you project :HUN getting the reallocation instead of :COL if a quota becomes available in the men's sprint? 

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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11 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

Is there any particular reason you project :HUN getting the reallocation instead of :COL if a quota becomes available in the men's sprint? 

It's based on my interpretation of the qualification document:

image.png

According to that section, the quota goes to the next highest-ranked NOC which has not yet qualified for the respective event - Colombia has already qualified a rider for the individual sprint through the keirin ranking so by my reading, they would not be eligible for quota reallocation and it would move down to Hungary. 

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Men's Sprint and Keirin - My prediction 

 

So UCI hasn't released the quotas yet so I was thinking to do some prediction. As each event should have 30 spots so after the competition in Milton I would predict like that. 

 

MEN'S SPRINT

Quotas from Team Sprint

:AUS 2 quotas 

:NED 2 quotas

:JPN 2 quotas

:FRA 2 quotas

:GBR 2 quotas

:CHN 2 quotas

:GER 2 quotas

:CAN 2 quotas

 

Olympic Ranking - 1 quota

:TTO

:POL

:ISR

:SUR

:MAS

:LTU

:RSA

 

Quotas from Keirin - 1 quota

:MAS

:COL

:NZL

:TTO

:THA

:KAZ

:CZE

 

MEN'S KEIRIN

 

Quotas from Team Sprint

:AUS 2 quotas 

:NED 2 quotas

:JPN 2 quotas

:FRA 2 quotas

:GBR 2 quotas

:CHN 2 quotas

:GER 2 quotas

:CAN 2 quotas

 

 

Olympic Ranking - 1 quota

:MAS

:COL

:NZL

:TTO

:THA

:KAZ

:CZE

 

Olympic Quotas from Sprint

:TTO

:POL

:ISR

:SUR

:MAS

:LTU

:RSA

 

Another possibility probably goes to the sprint. It looks like :ISR and :SUR may not be able to take 2 quotas, but not sure about the other riders and whether these 2 will be able to take 2 quotas or not. If not and the reallocation may go through Sprint instead of Keirin, then it should be 2 of these 3- :COL :HUN :CZE also not sure whether Colombia would take 2 quotas. If :COL takes 2 quotas, then it goes to :COL and :HUN . But they may not because of the regulations as each country may be allowed to take only 1 quota. 

 

I guess UCI may also make a decision based on ranking all 4 eligible countries in both events and take an average. In this option, :COL surely may get it and then probably :CZE which is placed 16th and 17th when :HUN is placed 16th and 25th in the Olympic ranking. And if I add also :KAZ, their ranking is both events is 15th and 24th. 

 

I also checked your prediction guys above. If :KAZ and :HUN get the quota, it means that it goes to the first country currently below the line in both sprint and keirin. :KAZ is first below the line in Keirin and :HUN is first below the line in sprint. 

 

To summarize, based on the official document, it is surely mentioned and it will be reallocated to the highest ranked country that yet has not qualified. I think for other countries, it is a question whether :ISR and :SUR refuses the second quota and if so, in which event. Because their top athlete will surely participate in both events anyway 🙂 

 

Now, I am hoping for :CZE to get the quota and their position is Olympic ranking is just a bit below the line in both events 😀😀

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jan Linha said:

To summarize, based on the official document, it is surely mentioned and it will be reallocated to the highest ranked country that yet has not qualified. I think for other countries, it is a question whether :ISR and :SUR refuses the second quota and if so, in which event. Because their top athlete will surely participate in both events anyway 🙂 

Israel and Suriname don't have a 2nd eligible rider to take so it's less of a question of whether they refuse the second quota and more a question of how UCI handles the reallocation. Given it is 2 places at stake, I think it is likely they give 1 quota to sprint rankings and the other to the keirin. If they give both to the same event, it could lead to protest. 

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58 minutes ago, Benolympique said:

Interesting that they are showing :COL as 1st reserve for men's sprint - evidently the supplementary entry they got through qualifying in the keirin does not prevent them from qualifying a second rider.

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1 hour ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Interesting that they are showing :COL as 1st reserve for men's sprint - evidently the supplementary entry they got through qualifying in the keirin does not prevent them from qualifying a second rider.

That was my interpretation originally, which is why I questioned you about it. 

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. Sport can create hope where once there was only despair” - Nelson Mandela

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I think that not all the quotas have been fulfilled. Maybe they informed by the "Reserves" so NOCs may know who may get another quota? Anyways, the ranking should close on 28th so I think on that day or maybe on Monday, they may release the full quota list. I there will be given some extra quotas but they haven't been announced yet. So for example, according to my counting, in the official document, there are only 26 confirmed quotas in Men's Sprint. I am counting like this because there are :MAS :TTO  :ISR and :SUR . I suppose these countries have to confirm whether they qualify 2 athletes (as they earned 1 quota in Sprint and 1 quota in Keirin) or whether take only one eligible athlete who will compete in both events. So I guess that means that UCI is waiting for the NOCs to confirm this quota and also they will have to approve whether this athlete is eligible to compete at the Olympics. If not, the quota will go to the reserves mentioned on the second page. Let's wait couple of days  :-D 

 

Anyways, :CZE R1 in Women's omnium, R2 in Men's Keirin and Women's Keirin. I hope we get at least one reallocation :-D 

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On 4/16/2024 at 2:09 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

Final track cycling quota projection:

 

image.png

 

I think there are 2 quota reallocations on the cards on the men's side - Israel and Suriname don't have a second eligible rider and so they will have to reject the quota. Assuming that is the case, I'd project that :HUN and :KAZ will get an individual quota for sprint/keirin. 

 

On the women's side, there is only 1 quota which should be subject to reallocation - Italy don't have an eligible second rider in the keirin/sprint behind Miriam Vece. In the most likely scenario, Italy will probably reject the keirin quota resulting in :ESP picking up the spot for sprint/keirin.

 

However, it may be possible that Italy could accept the second individual keirin quota and use it to nominate an extra endurance rider. Technically, I don't see anything in the qualification document that would prevent this - unless the eligibility clause relating to 10 points applies to the individual event - and it would give them the option of resting a rider for team pursuit qualifying. Given the team pursuit is run over 2 days rather than 1, I'm not sure it would actually give them that much of an edge though, so I'd still expect them to return the quota. 

I don't think :ITA would reject any quota...

 

it would be stupid by them, they should use that quota to name one more specialist for the endurance races

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