Road Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

With the latest release of the UCI world rankings, it is beginning to look like  men are going to miss out on qualifying a full team for Paris.

 

Of the British ranking riders only Hugh Carthy and Geraint Thomas were taking part in the Vuelta and they are currently only going to pick up around 200 ranking points. In fact, Geraint Thomas looks to be just going through the motions and if he loses much more time over the remaining stages, he will fail to win any ranking points for the final classification.

 

In contrast, there were 4 ranking riders for Spain at the Vuelta and they are having a blinder. They are currently on track for almost 2,500 ranking points from the event - around 700 more than they won in the 2022 edition. That will probably move  around 500 points ahead of  in the next world ranking. 

 

There are still a fair number of events on the men's tour but the numbers don't look great for GB and their best hope may be for  to drop back. The only upside for team GB is the fact that they are defending far fewer points than either France or Spain between now and the ranking window closing, but going against them is the fact that a quarter of their ranking riders (Cavendish & Geoghan Hart) are recovering from injury so are not competing and it is likely that GB wont send a team to take part in the European championships. 

[dodge 1,040]

I’ve posted this before. There’s no “defending” points on here as it only counts those earned in the time frame. GB are third and I don’t see France overtaking them 

 

PCS olympic ranking

[rybak 3,308]

Does anybody knows if we still have real chances to surpass Kazakhstan and Eritrea?

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

4 hours ago, dodge said:

I’ve posted this before. There’s no “defending” points on here as it only counts those earned in the time frame. GB are third and I don’t see France overtaking them 

 

PCS olympic ranking

Ultimately, I guess it comes down to personal preference about which source to use - I prefer to use the UCI ranking as they the "golden-source" and I can trace the data lineage. 

 

Also I realised that PCS was publishing incorrect data for the women's tour ranking which rang alarm bells about their processes. 

[mpjmcevoy 375]

7 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

With the latest release of the UCI world rankings, it is beginning to look like  men are going to miss out on qualifying a full team for Paris.

 

Of the British ranking riders only Hugh Carthy and Geraint Thomas were taking part in the Vuelta and they are currently only going to pick up around 200 ranking points. In fact, Geraint Thomas looks to be just going through the motions and if he loses much more time over the remaining stages, he will fail to win any ranking points for the final classification.

 

In contrast, there were 4 ranking riders for Spain at the Vuelta and they are having a blinder. They are currently on track for almost 2,500 ranking points from the event - around 700 more than they won in the 2022 edition. That will probably move  around 500 points ahead of  in the next world ranking. 

 

There are still a fair number of events on the men's tour but the numbers don't look great for GB and their best hope may be for  to drop back. The only upside for team GB is the fact that they are defending far fewer points than either France or Spain between now and the ranking window closing, but going against them is the fact that a quarter of their ranking riders (Cavendish & Geoghan Hart) are recovering from injury so are not competing and it is likely that GB wont send a team to take part in the European championships. 

I think there's a better than average chance that, at a minimum the yates boys will do Il Lombadia which has big points. Pidcock could very well have a crack at it too. Agree on the Europeans

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

In a surprising move, GB Cycling have confirmed a squad for the European Championships at the end of the month.  I think this will be the first time since 2019 that  have entered a squad:

 

Men's Squad

Ethan Vernon - Road Race

Luke Rowe - Road Race

Connor Swift - Road Race

Ben Turner - Road Race

Mark Stewart - Road Race

Jake Stewart - Road Race

Sam Watson - Road Race

Josh Tarling - Road Race and Individual Time Trial

 

Not the strongest squad that GB could have sent but at least they are taking part. It is unlikely that it is going to make big difference to their overall ranking points total with Ethan Vernon being the only ranking rider involved. He was in good form in Tour of Britain though and if he could get a top 5 finish, that would be a great result. If things went well for Josh Tarling, there is a chance he could dislodge Fred Wright as the 8th counter for GB but to do that he would need to win the ITT and score in the road race. 

 

 

Women's Squad

Elinor Barker - Road Race and Individual Time Trial

Anna Henderson - Road Race and Individual Time Trial

Alice Barnes - Road Race

Claire Steels - Road Race

Pfeiffer Georgi - Road Race

Beckie Storrie - Road Race

 

That's a pretty strong squad from a ranking points perspective with Henderson, Steels and Georgi all counting. In addition, Anna Shackley is also in the Under-23 squad. Assuming all four of those riders finish safely in the road race and Anna Henderson is able to replicate her World Champs form in the ITT, a top 5 finish in the world ranking begins to look a lot more likely.

[Laraja 1,498]

Men's World Ranking by Nations updated as of September 19th, 2023

[Laraja 1,498]

Women's World Ranking by Nations updated as of September 19th, 2023

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

Looks like  Mark Cavendish will be returning to racing next month after crashing out of the Tour de France - he is provisionally listed for the Presidential Cycling Tour of Turkey which runs from 8-Oct to 15-Oct and will be one of the last events to take place before the qualification window closes. 

 

Josh Tarling also filling out his schedule for the next couple of weeks - he is provisionally due to take part in CRO race next week and the Chrono des Nations on 15th Oct. 

 

I have a feeling that Geraint Thomas's season is done. Likewise, I can't see Geoghan-Hart riding again this year especially as he is switching to Lidl-Trek next season. Not sure what the plan is for Tom Pidcock - he could take part in a couple of the Italian 1-day races or compete in the North American swing of the MTB World Cup. 

 

We know that the Yates brothers are due to take part in a couple of the Italian 1-day races but having the lower order ranking riders competing over the next couple of weeks could be the difference between having 3 or 4 riders in Paris next year. 

[Rafa Maciel 1,658]

The end of the season is fast approaching:

 

 

Men's Events

 

CRO Race

1.)   Orluis Alberto Aular Sanabria

2.)  Alexander Kristoff

3.)  Ethan Hayter

 

Tour of Istanbul

1.)   Gustav Wang

2.)  Gianni Marchand

3.)  Nicolas Vinokurov

 

Tour de Langkawi

1.)   Simon Carr

2.)  Jefferson Cepeda Ortiz

3.)  Pablo Castrillo Zapater

 

Giro dell'Emilia

1.)  Primoz Roglic 

2.)  Tadej Pogacar

3.)  Simon Yates 

 

 will net 165 points from the performances of the Yates brothers - and this, coupled with results elsewhere leads me to think there is a good chance that GB will overtake  in the next UCI rankings release but it is likely to be close. 

 

Coppa Agostoni - Giro Delle Brianze

1.)  Davide Formolo

2.)  Marc Hirschi

3.)  Victor Lafay

 

Circuit Franco-Belge

1.)  Arnaud De Lie

2.)  Rasmus Tiller

3.)  Corbin Strong

 

Tour de Vendee

1.)  Arnaud Demare

2.)  Paul Penhoet

3.)  Sandy Dujardin

 

Lotto Famenne Ardenne Classic

1.)  Arnaud De Lie

2.)  Kaden Groves

3.)  Florian Senechal

 

 

 

Women's Events

 

Giro dell'Emilia Internazionale Donne Elite

1.)  Cecilie Ludwig

2.)  Marta Cavalli

3.)  Juliette Labous

 

There are a handful of races over the next couple of weeks for the men's tour with the last big race of the season being Il Lombardia next weekend. I think this event may have been upgraded this year as the ranking points have increased compared to last year - there are now 800 ranking points for the winner so it could have significant impact on the final rankings.

 

On the other hand, the women's tour is pretty much done and dusted with just 3 1-day races to go and the Tour of Guangxi so I am not expecting any dramatic shifts in the rankings as France would need to net 500 points to overtake GB.