[OlympicsFan 783]

12 hours ago, phelps said:

no way  can win a medal in the men's 4*200m free relay

 

 can only throw it away, then  and  are definitely a lot better than them, even  with Ragaini's explosion already have a better lineup than  

and  are also still ahead, even if they're not performing at their best yet (and maybe they're not going to show their real potential until the Games)

Do you even follow swimming? Please look up the results of the last world championships. When did Italy last go faster than the Chinese time from this year? 
China, South Korea and Australia should normally fight for bronze. Don’t see how Italy is relevant in this discussion.

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 minute ago, dullard said:

Australia could easily lose 1.5 seconds to China in the breaststroke leg and then Zhang will likely outsplit McKeon in the fly.

Yeah, but Australia should be at least 0.6 seconds faster on the freestyle leg.

[OlympicsFan 783]

On 4/22/2024 at 1:23 AM, dullard said:

Tang's 1:04.39 now makes China a strong gold medal contender in the women's medley relay.

I still don’t see China seriously threatening the U.S. or Australia. China should be about 1.5 seconds behind after the first leg and all the waves will make it very difficult to catch up. I think China is a rather clear favorite for bronze, but probably not more than that. I actually think that China could medal in all 7 relays. The men’s 800 free relay should be the closest call, followed by the men’s 400 free relay. There is a chance that only 4 different nations will win relay medals. Especially the women’s relays look super „shallow“, only the U.S., Australia, China and maybe Canada look like realistic medal contenders. No European nation has a realistic medal chance.

Edited Tuesday at 10:19 PM by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Will another supersuit record drop? The 400m free might be the events to watch for both genders

I don’t think that the record on the women’s side is a supersuited one (if that is what you meant). Almost all records are in danger. Only men’s 200/800 free, men’s 100 breast, men’s 200 back, women’s 200 fly and possibly men’s 200 fly seem safe. 

[OlympicsFan 783]

On 4/18/2024 at 11:29 PM, dullard said:

It doesn't clash with anything at trials and there's a small chance if breaststrokers fail to deliver at trials then Kaylee will be our best option for breaststroke in the medley relay so they might use Mollie for the backstroke leg. Something like O'Callaghan/McKeown/McKeon/Jack. She'd probably want to swim it anyway just to put down a tapered time in ideal conditions.

1) It clashes with the 200 free at the Olympics.

2) She already put down a time. Don’t see anyone who could realistically get close.

3) Don’t see how it would make sense to put McKeown on the breast leg. You would probably lose one second on the back and free leg (combined). McKeown would have to be 1.5 seconds faster than your second best breastroker to justify putting her there. Even if Strauch doesn’t improve till trials, McKeown would have to be 1:05 mid, which doesn’t seem realistic. In addition to that it wouldn’t help your athletes to swim against the American wave (considering that Smith most likely would open up a considerable gap for the U.S.).

[OlympicsFan 783]

4 hours ago, dullard said:

She was all over the lane even hitting the lane rope. If she can tidy that up indoors at trials she's gong 57 something for sure.

 

It was another great session but the men's 200 free was a bit of a fizzer.

 

 

Did she say that she will swim it at trials?

Absolutely don’t see her swimming it at the Olympics.

[OlympicsFan 783]

16 hours ago, Topicmaster1010 said:

1.  United States: 101 (53 M + 48 W)

2.  Japan: 48 (28 M + 20 W)

3.  Australia: 44 (20 M + 24 W)

4.  Great Britain: 35 (21 M + 14 W)

5.  Italy: 32 (21 M + 11 W)

6.  China: 31 (12 M + 19 W)

7.  France: 25 (15 M + 10 W)

8.  Hungary: 20 (12 M + 8 W)

9.  Canada: 19 (4 M + 15 W)

10.  Germany: 13 (9 M + 4 W)

11.  Netherlands: 13 (6 M + 7 W)

12.  South Korea: 10 (8 M + 2 W)

13.  Poland: 9 (4 M + 5 W)

14.  Brazil: 8 (5 M + 3 W),  South Africa: 8 (3 M + 5 W),  Spain: 8 (5 M + 3 W),  New Zealand: 8 (5 M + 3 W)

15.  Greece: 7 (6 M + 1 W),  Sweden: 7 (3 M + 4 W)

16.  Israel: 6 (5 M + 1 W)

17.  Lithuania: 4 (2 M + 2 W),  Portugal: 4 (3 M + 1 W),  Switzerland: 4 (4 M),  Ukraine: 4 (4 M)

18.  Austria: 3 (3 M),  Belarus: 3 (1 M + 2 W),  Belgium: 3 (1 M + 2 W),  Bulgaria: 3 (2 M + 1 W),  Denmark: 3 (3 W),  Hong Kong: 3 (1 M + 2 W),  Ireland: 3 (1 M + 2 W),  Norway: 3 (3 M),  Turkey: 3 (3 M)

19.  Croatia: 2 (2 M),  Czech Republic: 2 (1 M + 1 W),  Estonia: 2 (1 M + 1 W),  Mexico: 2 (2 M),  Romania: 2 (2 M),  Singapore: 2 (1 M + 1 W),  Tunisia: 2 (2 M)

20.  Argentina: 1 (1 W),  Aruba: 1 (1 M),  Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1 (1 W),  Cayman Islands: 1 (1 M),  Egypt: 1 (1 W),  Finland: 1 (1 M),  Iceland: 1 (1 M),  Kyrgyzstan: 1 (1 M),  Serbia: 1 (1 M),  Slovenia: 1 (1 W),  Taiwan: 1 (1 M),  Trinidad and Tobago: 1 (1 M),  Venezuela: 1 (1 M),  Vietnam: 1 (1 M)

 

As of April 15th. Keep in mind that  Italy,  Japan,  South Korea,  Great Britain,  South Africa,  Hungary,  New Zealand, and  Denmark have all had their Olympic Trials/National Championships already so their numbers could be inflated. I'll post this again after the qualification period is over.

1) What starting date did you use? Do you only look at 2024 results or all results since the beginning of the qualifying period?

2) Many nations haven’t had their trials yet, so we will probably see some changes. I would be shocked if Australia would have less athletes with the A standard than Japan.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Would be interesting to have a ranking of nations with the most athletes under the A standard. I was quite surprised to see that Japan has clearly more athletes under the A standard than GB.

[OlympicsFan 783]

14 hours ago, phelps said:

 Nationals

 

men's 200m Fly

 

1.Kristòf Milàk, 1.54.90

2.Richàrd Màrton, 1.56.32

3.  Polat Uzer Turnali, 1.56.41 

 

women's 200m Fly

 

1.Boglàrka Kapàs, 2.08.15

 

men's 50m Freestyle

 

1.Kristòf Milàk, 21.89

2.Nàndor Nèmeth, 22.19

 

 

quite disappointed by Milàk's swim over 200m Fly...after this morning, I expected him to be at least 1.5 sec faster Tonight

1) Milak went 21.8 in the 50 free in the same session afterwards, so not sure if he went all out in the 200 fly.

2) Milak swam a clear PB in the 50 free, so his speed is excellent. We‘ll see how it translates to the 100 fly.

[OlympicsFan 783]

13 hours ago, copravolley said:

We'll see. Even if it's not 2 golds, but e.g. 1 gold and 1 silver or bronze in the 200 backstroke, it will be ok. It's always better to have 2 individual chances than 1. The most important thing is to be in good shape in July and he will be getting closer to his world record from 2022. He won't be the favorite in the 200 meters but he has a chance for the podium.

1) It isn’t always better to have 2 individual (Olympic) events. Focusing on one event can improve your medals chances, examples would be Manaudou, Proud or Armstrong.

2) He has a chance (probability greater than zero) to win a medal in the 200 back, but it is impossible to tell from the outside how big his chance is. So far he hasn’t shown anything to indicate that he could be one of the favorites for a medal. Training for the 200 back might destroy some of his speed, which could hurt him in the 100 back. At least the 200 back schedule doesn’t collide with the 100 back/4 x 100 free/4 x 100 Medley schedule, so it probably wouldn’t hurt too much to give it a try.

Edited March 10 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

23 hours ago, copravolley said:

Today, in an interview in Raisport after the competition Ceccon said that he was aiming for double gold in Paris: 100 and 200 backstroke. In my opinion, it was the right decision, because there is no dominant player in the 200 backstroke. Secondly, if Marchand can aim for 3 individual golds, Ceccon can aim for 2. The biggest problem for the Italian team will be with the medley relay. I see 3 options:

 

 

- waiting for Sette Colli with the hope that e.g. Burdisso or Codia in the 100 dolphin will be below 52 seconds,

- betting on Razzetti (today he achieved 52 seconds, but at the top of his form he can get 0.5 seconds off it),

- Lamberti in the backstroke and Ceccon in the butterfly (an option considered by the commentators during the Raisport broadcast.

Nice to see that he has dreams, but he has never shown anything to indicate that he can come remotely close to Kos in the 200 back. He should save his energy for other events. Also I don’t see how Marchand and Ceccon are connected, Marchand obviously is lightyears ahead of Ceccon. Ceccon will have enough trouble to beat the Americans in the 100 back, Marchand is infinitely more dominant in the 400 IM. In addition to that I think that Marchand will try to go for 4 golds, otherwise they probably wouldn’t have changed the schedule so that he can swim the 200 fly and the 200 breast. 

[OlympicsFan 783]

10 minutes ago, Olympian1010 said:

Swimming doesn’t need anymore events, but relays should be cut to 12 to leave a couple more quotas for individual events.

 

I’d also cut the m/w 4x100 free (in favor of the mixed relay) to better use quotas, again.

Agreed that swimming doesn't need more events and also there should be less relay quotas, but i would rather cut the 4 x 200 free relay, since it is pretty much always super uncompetitive.

[OlympicsFan 783]

4 hours ago, Josh said:

Think @intoronto is talking about Oleksiak, but I’m not sure. 

Didn't know that she is still considered relevant. When was the last time that she produced a fast time? I think even someone like Jansen might be more relevant, but we will see. I think Australia, USA, China and probably even GB are bigger favorites for Paris, so it might be best for McIntosh to drop the 4 x 100 free relay, but maybe things will look different after trials.

[OlympicsFan 783]

3 hours ago, EselTheDonkey said:

Hafnaoui actually was there, but he missed the final.

I know, i meant that Short and Hafnaoui both were non-factors. Hafanoui apparently ended his studies in the U.S. and then had to go back to Tunisia waiting for a new visa, so it is understandable that he wasn't anywhere near his best. He still has enough time to turn it around before Paris.

[OlympicsFan 783]

38 minutes ago, intoronto said:

winning bronze without arguably it 3 best swimmers shows how low quality this event is tbh

 

And

MacNeil, McIntosh and ... ? Will be interesting to see how many relays McIntosh will swim in Paris, given her packed schedule.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Not sure what to make of Gose's and Märtens' performances. Gose set a new national record, but i absolutely don't see her challenging Titmus, Ledecky, McIntosh or Fairweather in Paris. Even Li Bingjie and Pallister might be out of reach. The 1500 free seems like her best shot if she can get down to sub 15:45.

Märtens was ill for many weeks and should be way off 100 %, but him only finishing 3rd without Short/Hafnaoui isn't super encouraging. It will be interesting to see if he will plan to swim the 800 free at the olympics. He will focus on the 200 free here, but in the 800 free he might be closer to a medal.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Could be a very good medal haul for the Netherlands. 8 or 9 medals in olympic events seem possible (2 medals by Schouten, 2 medals by Kamminga, 1 medal by Corbeau, 2 medals by Steenbergen, women's 4 x 100 free relay, Korstanje). At the olympics that ceiling should be 5 medals (2 x Kamminga, 2 x Schouten, 1 x Steenbergen).

Edited February 11 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

Will be interesting to see how many of the medal winners will also win a medal in Paris. I would say 1 or 2 on the men's side and maybe 1 on the women's side. Pretty much all the big names apparently didn't take this competition very seriously.

[OlympicsFan 783]

6 hours ago, phelps said:

He admitted his error in the 200m IM (not touching with both handes in a turn), but he definitely denied the second fly kick after a turn in the 100m IM yesterday

 

and more in general, there are too many DQs...it looks that all swimmers can't swim anymore (those of swimswam know swimming very well, but they are also really biased towards Ceccon...it's not the first time they write bad comments about him )

That is just an absurd take. They usually celebrate him. On SwimSwam there is some bias against swimmers from Australia/Russia/China, but not against Ceccon or italian swimmers in general. At the end of 2022 Ceccon was ranked 4th in their top 100 for 2023 (behind Milak, Marchand and Popovici) and some were arguing that he should have placed even higher.

https://swimswam.com/swimswams-top-100-for-2023-mens-10-1/

Edited December 10, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

19 hours ago, phelps said:

VAR is definitely killing this sport 

 

it was supposed to be used just to catch some blatant cheaters using the fly kick more than once in the breaststroke races, but it's become a farce...

 

according to this tournament's judges, there are a lot of swimmers that can't swim and make turns (including multiple world champions like Thomas Ceccon) as if it was a 7-year young kids' competition 

I absolutely disagree. Nice to see all those cheaters finally getting caught. Of course it will take time for them to adapt after using an illegal technique for so long.

[OlympicsFan 783]

6 minutes ago, phelps said:

european juniors, worlds, university games just gone and now this new event in less than a month?

 

frankly, the swimming governing bodies are going a bit too far, imho

 

however, from an Italian perspective, this competition might get a lot of hype because of the announced comeback by Lorenzo Galossi, after a year full of troubles (mononucleosis and cytomegalovirus all together, 2 changes of coach, a lot of doubts going through his mind)

 

let's see how he does this weekend? I'm really curious and I hope he's at least in decent shape (not expecting to be even close to his PBs, but at least swimming reasonably fast)

I don't agree that FINA is going too far. I think this is a very good event. It helps to keep athletes engaged/motivated who are too old for junior competitions and not (quite) good enough (yet) to qualify for senior competitions. I think athletes/coaches should focus on one event though. Also you forgot (to mention) that junior worlds are still to come ...

Edited August 10, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

3 hours ago, dullard said:

1) But you are ignoring it. You've basically decided that a historically fast (#5 all time) short course 1500 isn't indicative of ability in the long course version which isn't untrue. And then you're comparing the 14:31 to his 14:10 from a year and a half ago as though he's supposed to have not progressed since then at all. At around the same age as Hafnaoui and Short Wellbrock had quite a lot of progression as well (see bottom).

 

2) Yes, it's easier to avoid incompetiton testing if you don't compete but as far as I can see Hafnaoui competed at more in season pool meets (complete with anti-doping because they were all top tier pro meets (TYR Pro and Mare Nostrum)) than Wellbrock did but he just didn't rest for them so the times aren't fast. I also imagine Hafnaoui is easy to find on Indiana University campus for out of competition testing.

 

3) Winnington and Short were really the only two contenders because Neill has shifted focus to IMs and and Horton just hasn't been good for years. Short also went 3:42 unrested in season in April.

 

Just going over Wellbrock's progression in the 1500 to see what he was like around the same age as Short and Hafnaoui and Wellbrock dropped his 1500 PB by 19 seconds in 2018 alone which is more than Short did this year.

 

Wellbrock

2016  14:55.49  
2017  15:01.34  
2018  14:36.15  <-- 19 second drop from PB, 25 second drop from previous season
 

Short

2021  14:57.22  
2022  14:48.54  
2023  14:37.28   <-- 11 second drop

 

If Hafnaoui had swum a long course 1500 at the end of 2021 instead of a short course one his long course PB would've been a lot faster already (probably low 14:40s) so the drop he had this year would have been smaller.

 

1) Short course times aren't very indicative, mainly because the top guys don't compete or aren't in top shape.

Wellbrock swam 14:06 when he was 14:36 long course. Hafanoui swam 14:10, which translates to 14:40 at best -> 9 seconds slower than he went this week.

When Wellbrock was as old as Hafanoui was last year, he went 14:36. Now, 5 years later, he improved by 2 seconds. Hafanoui on the other hand improved his PB by 45 seconds this year. Wellbrock improved his PB by 19 seconds when he was younger than Hafnaoui, while Hafnoui improved his PB by 45 seconds while being older. Saying that their progression is remotely comparable is completely absurd.

2) Really wonder how often he got tested after being completely irrelevant last year. Would love to see the number of his tests vs. the number of Wellbrock's tests. Also would like to know who is responsible for him. Hard to imagine tunisian officials regularly flying around the world just to test him. Maybe he wasn't faster because he wasn't rested or maybe he wasn't faster because he couldn't go faster. Anyways you have to admire his "confidence", he doesn't ever need to go fast before worlds/olympics to test his training, somehow he just knows that it will work out and that he will always drop massive amounts of time. You almost have to envy him ...

3) How about you stop throwing around the word "unrested"? If Short would have gone 3:42 unrested, he would have gone at least 3:38 at worlds. If you go 3:42 unrested you don't drop less than two seconds when fully rested. His 3:42 in-season is still infinitely more impressive than anything Hafnaoui ever did in-season. I still haven't heard why exactly Märtens and Wellbrock, who were both already qualified after last year's worlds, had to go fast in-season, but Hafanoui and Short (who both weren't qualified) didn't. The mental gymnastics you need to justify this point of view is astonishing.

 

Edit: I just calculated by how much Hafanoui improved his PB in the 400/800/1500 free vs. by how much everyone else combined (all finalists in the 400/800/1500 free) improved their PB:

Overall improvement by Hafanoui: 39.90 seconds (3 races)

Overall improvement by everyone else: 41.04 seconds (21 races)

Edited July 31, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[OlympicsFan 783]

4 hours ago, dullard said:

Are you just going to ignore that Hafnaoui won silver in the 1500 at short course worlds in 2021 in a historically fast time behind Wellbrock who set the current world record? His long course 1500 PB remained stagnant because he spent last year focused on his studies in order to gain NCAA eligibility. Hafnaoui also beat Finke multiple times at TYR Pro meets earlier in the year so he was hardly mediocre all season long but it seems that some of the European guys pop big times early in the season (trials meets?) while Hafnaoui, Finke and Short don't need to peak until Worlds because they have no competition in their events from their own country.

1) No, i don't ignore it. I explicitely wrote "never done anything in 800/1500 free long course". I also don't ignore that his short course time was still clearly slower than Wellbrock's, who has a long course PB of 14:34. Hafanoui's short course PB doesn't in any way translate to 14:31 long course.

2) If i remember correctly he never swam any in-season time that would final at worlds. When you only need to swim/run fast once a season, then it is much easier to not fail any tests. He can basically hide all-year long and just appear at worlds. Märtens and Wellbrock could have done the same (since they were already qualified), but they chose not to do it.

3) Also interesting that you say that Short (and Finke) didn't need to peak until worlds. So Short just expected to qualify in the 400 free at 80 % against guys like Winnington? Doesn't seem plausible to me. Wellbrock and Märtens had far less reason than Finke and Short to swim fast in-season, but they still did it.

4) Mellouli's doping history, the fact that Hafanoui always comes out of nowhere for worlds/olympics and the fact that he didn't do anything in the 800/1500 free (long course) before this week and then just went clearly faster than guys like Wellbrock or Paltrinieri ever did (after years of competing at the highest level) leads me to be 100 % convinced that he is a cheater. Hopefully one day things will be sorted out.

[OlympicsFan 783]

Also interesting:

Olympic events without an australian finalist: 6

Olympic events without an american finalist: 1 (Smith missed the men's 400 free final by 0.34 seconds)

 

Olympic events with 2 australian finalists: 9

Olympic events with 2 american finalists: 19

[OlympicsFan 783]

1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

I did a nations ranking (only olympic events) according to the FINA scoring system* (can't guarantee that everything is correct):

925

749

499

376

356

309

307

249

237

180

171

141

125

90

67

& 63

53

52

49

46

42

40

39

30

28

27

26

23

& 21

18

& 15

14

13

12

11

10

8

& & 7

6

5

4

& & & 3

& 2

1

 

* Scoring for individual events: 18-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

Scoring for relays: 36-32-30-28-26-24-22-20

Not very encouraging that only one european nation finished top 6. Quite surprising that the Netherlands was so close to Italy and that Japan finished ahead of France. Japan for sure has the worst points to medals ratio. More points than France, but 1/3 of the medals of Tunisia ...