My two escudos:
Baseball/Softball. Baseball is not less an international sport that water polo or field hockey. One of the biggest cons of the sport was always the cost for a dedicated sport infrastructure, something that is obviously not a issue in Tokyo. Why not, then ? On the other hand, softball is a very, very minor international sport and has no business to be in the olympics. Drop Softball, have a proper - men - baseball 12 team tournament. Reassess it after Tokyo.
Karate: Only if we ditch taekwondo in the process. Too much redundancy between the two.
Surfing. Despite growing up in an heavy surfing/skateboarding culture (mostly made of wanabee though, my younger myself included), I certainly don't support surfing inclusion. The sport is far from global, being only popular in some smallish regional pockets. Judging controversies are common. A large part of its fanbase considers it as a 'culture' first and foremost, and not a sport in the tradiontional - IOC - way. It can also be a very, very lame spectacle.
Skateboarding: To me, it sounds like the church bringing a guitar, a few colorfull shirts and thinking that they will appeal to the youth that way. Hint: It doesen't work and it makes you desesperate and ridiculous. All the surfing cons in worse (+ a split between governing bodies). No, not even close. What were they thinking ? ©
Sport climbing: Actually the only sport that I fully support the inclusion of. It's fresh, it offers something trully new, the sport is fully supportive of its inclusion. And it's actually a somehow spectator-friendly sport. My concern is the combined event, I'd have much prefered to have a propper speed and bouldering event.
Generally speaking, I don't get the IOC and the japanese OC. The process and the sport's choices make very little sense to me.
PS: we need a dedicated sport program thread