thiago_simoes

What are the chances of in men's football?

Totally unexpected! And no finals for at all. Not even all-around final. This is the most shocking result for me.

This was immediately after she realized she wouldn't qualify for any final. Poor girl.

The reigning Olympic beam champion is 10th overall, 7th when we count 2 per country. After the performs in their rotation, she will already be out. Anyway, it's impossible to make the final by the end of the day.

Unpolished vault from Lee. I'm shocked. She looks disconnected today.

LOL at Ferrari ahead of Biles. Not a fan of either gymnast, but it's undeniably a fair result.

The floor scores for the US are realistic for once? WHAT THE HELL? Is this real life?

Peru is the best country I've visited in my life. If I had to move away from Brazil, I'd live in Peru, no question about it. I just love Lima so much!

Well, even with a little help from the judges, Japan still finishes behind Italy. Italy had a nightmarish pre-Olympics season but still managed to pull ahead of Japan. Well done!

Women's qualification is underway and it looks like Japan is getting a major home nation boost in scores. They're not really scoring HUGE numbers because this team is mediocre at best, but for what they have presented so far, their scores are slightly higher than they should have been. It's fairly common in this sport, though, unfortunately.

I get it that it was a HUGE mistake to dismiss Karimi, but Iran's current gymnasts are anything but "very poor". In fact, I expect Iran to win a medal at the World Championships this year. Maybe even two: one on the pommel horse and another one on rings.

Zonderland's difficulty is very high. But his execution was far from great, despite, as you mentioned, him hitting the routine. However, he has lots and lots of small/medium technical deductions in every skill, what made his score go downhill. Uchimura will have a final chance to finish his career on a high note because the World Championships will take place in Japan this year, but I don't know if he will even be motivated to attend.

A lot. Yulo (Floor) Hak Seon (Vault) Tommasone (Pommel Horse) Radivilov (Rings and Vault) Lodadio (Rings) Wai Hung (Vault) Regini Moran (Vault) Mariano (Horizontal Bar) Baumann (Parallel Bars) Chaopan (Horizontal Bar) Zonderland (Horizontal Bar) Tvorogal (Horizontal Bar, Parallel Bars) Uchimura (Horizontal Bar) I was very tempted to mention that Uchimura's gold medal on the horizontal bar was the safest gold medal prediction in men's artistic gymnastics this year, and he didn't even qualify for the final.

An individual final for Diogo is totally unexpected! I'm super happy for him! Caio and Zanetti will have a hard time winning a medal, but it's definitely within reach. I'd not hold my breath, though. Now, our team is just not great. Very low start values on rings and pommel horse. It's impossible to do well and reach team finals when the level of difficulty is not up to par with the other teams. Ninth place is even higher than I expected.

It's actually on par with what I expected, to be honest. Brazil has stopped producing great all-arounders, so it's only logical that this 4-person team nonsense would greatly affect our results right from the start. Caio did quite well today, and so did Diogo, but Diogo is very young and he was not supposed to even compete this year. He's being prepared to compete in 2024 and 2028. Anyway, I'm happy for Caio. Not happy for Zanetti at all. I despise him and I refuse to cheer for him in any circumstance.

She's actually really great! Daiane dos Santos has improved considerably, but she went from a terrible commentator to a bad one. Jade is excellent right from the start. Diego Hypólito is unbearable, though.

A good start for , and . is also on fire and is keeping up, despite Dalaloyan not in his best form -- but still with pretty decent scores. will probably only reach one final, with Pakhnyuk on the parallel bars. I don't think Radivilov will manage to qualify for anything. I also believe it will be hard to qualify for team finals. had a terrible day as a team, but Zapata will move forward to floor finals, so that should be enough to bring some hope for the nation for a medal. Deurloo can still reach horizontal bar final, but it's too bad Zonderland is already out. Poor guy. He deserved better, and so did Dragulescu. At least he had a great score for his namesake vault, despite counting a fall.

Now that we have the final number of qualifiers for each nation, I'll update my predictions. "Safe" medals Artistic gymnastics: 1 medal Athletics: 1 medal Boxing: 1 medal Judo: 1 medal Sailing: 1 medal Skateboarding: 3 medals Sprint canoeing: 2 medals Surfing: 2 medals Volleyball and Beach volleyball: 2 medals Likely, but definitely not easy: Football: 1 medal Taekwondo: 1 medal Swimming and Open water swimming: 2 medals Unlikely, but feasible medals Cycling: 1 medal Fencing: 1 medal Slalom canoeing: 1 medal Tennis: 1 medal Nearly impossible medals Archery: 1 medal Table tennis: 1 medal Wrestling: 1 medal I'd say 15 medals is a realistic expectation. Some sports in the "safe medal" tier can earn more medals, like artistic gymnastics and judo, and even football can give us 2 medals, so 15 is a somewhat conservative but realistic number. Our unofficial goal is reaching 20 medals, but for this to happen we'll need excellent performances in judo, artistic gymnastics and volleyball, and we'll need at least 2 medals in athletics and swimming. It's within reach, but I honestly don't expect this to happen anymore.

I'm going with the obvious here: USA, BRA and JPN.

Overall, very conservative predictions in gymnastics. When they tried to be bold, they completely missed the mark, such as a medal for Malone on the horizontal bar (not gonna happen) and a silver medal for Dauser on the parallel bars (very unlikely). I also don't believe Tommasone will win a medal and I would never predict anything for Hashimoto, but at least he's capable of getting a medal if he hits. Steingruber is the safest prediction for the bronze medal on vault, but if my predictions are right, this will not happen.

I believe that Nicole Pircio, rhythmic gymnast, also celebrates her birthday on that day.

It looks like the whole plan of has always been: why skip the Games altogether, like did, if you can move to the country hosting the Games and repeatedly slap their faces over what they did in the past?

In Brazil, gymnastics is the second most popular sport in Tokyo. It's only behind football, of course. Also, this might surprise some people, but rhythmic gymnastics often draws more attention than artistic gymnastics around here, especially at the Pan American Games. Source: https://www.lance.com.br/olimpiada/futebol-ginastica-sao-mais-esperados-pelo-publico-brasileiro-para-jogos-olimpicos-toquio.html

Fernando Reis is out. Doping violation. I wanted him to win a medal, of course, but now I definitely won't be sad for a doper, though. The article doesn't mention the substance, but on Twitter someone mentioned it was hGH in an out of competition test in June. Source in Portuguese: https://ge.globo.com/olimpiadas/noticia/fernando-reis-do-levantamento-de-peso-e-pego-no-doping.ghtml

It's a complex matter and everyone will have a different opinion about it. On one hand, I would like all nations and territories to have the same kind of treatment from the IOC, but on the other hand it's important to be sensible and avoid unnecessary conflicts given the recent history in the region, so it's best to just let it slide and think about other things.