mpjmcevoy

Obviously nothing is ever a 100% lock because you can get hit by a bus. So leaving that aside : I don't see McLaughlin as a lock AT ALL. She's the favourite, but no more. I frankly have a hunch it will be Bol. Just had to get that off the chest.

Caudrey has been an emerging talent for a few years, but has absolutely skyrocketed to world class in about 18 months - it's not just that she hit a 4.80 mid. It's that she's doing it in almost every competition at the moment, which makes her an absolute medal shout at elite level, though she will likely need 4,90 if she's gonna scare the top step. If holly Bradshaw makes it back by the summer, you may have the absurdity of women's pole vault being GB's best field event - and trust me, in a GB historic context, that is an absurdity.

I guess I'm nervous of a system that gives more points to a straight WLLL than a LWWW - it makes that first match worth more than all the others combined; a tournament system works better, I think because you earn your way to the extra points. Of course, if you had time, 4 groups of eight would be even better, perhaps using time to score as the equivalent of goal difference. You could then break into 4 set of eight - each fencer then has 7+3 matches, which sounds a lot compared to maybe 4 or 6, but is still vastly less than the current complete round robin.

2024 MP bears little resemblance 1950's MP It's an arbitrary sport in many ways, invented not evolved. And most importantly, perhaps, without the Olympics it will die. Best to accept the new format as the MP equivalent of rugby sevens - a Games based 'taster' version of the sport, while other versions - including Classic Equestrian with separate run and shoot, perhaps - exist outside the Olympics (perhaps in world Games)

What you want is Either - a rugby sevens style 'shield, plate and bowl' competition which will give everyone broadly equal matches, and a detailed ranking OR a 'tournament' with seeded groups of four, followed again by a 'shield, plate and bowl' style ranking competition (my preference, so first loss does not condemn you to 17th place at best) For 32 competitors, that would work out at 4 matches each in scenario 1 or 6 matches each in scenario 2, but would still have a certain sporting authenticity to it, ad would increase the actual jeapordy of each match.

True, but it's a fairly obvious mathematical way to 'rejig' the numbers for 'universality' - it's precisely this effect they're aiming at - it's a feature, not a bug.

I think the issue is translation skills, to be honest. Especially with the 'jargon' the IOC tend to insist upon.

Is London Marathon the trials event?

It doesn't count for swim ireland, but it does for IOC. And its Paris 2024 who give out the quotas. If Ireland reject one, that's fine, but that's a case of handing a place back, not having failed to win it.

The Europeans? ;-)

At the moment, two Irish male swimmers have the OQT. Granted, I don' see Dan Wiffen putting together a couple of quick hundreds (!), but technically, they have two qualified male swimmers, and are entitled to two for relays. so I think include them until and unless they self exclude.

Katie Moon halted at 4.80

Having three big hitters going for the women's 100 back is a major help here, and if Peaty is even competitive (i.e there or thereabouts for a medal) then its plausibly game on. There are some good young sprint breaststrokers coming through (eg Bilbao), but my gut says Peaty will be OK, in that case almost everything turns on 100 fly, and specifically the form of Guy and Peters - Guy looked at the Euro short course (frankly a better barometer, in my view, than this odd Worlds of where GB hope to be) to have found some of his 2015 Mojo - if that's the case, he may step back from the medley relays, at least partially, to protect his newfound 200 free form. I think this event was almost the GB banker last time - this time, I think the banker is the mens 4 x 2 free, and the men's medley may actually be stronger than the mixed. I still think if Peaty is even 95% there (I'd reckon he's about 80% atm but he knows he's gonna get a wildcard if required) then medals in both relays is likely and gold in either/or is possible.

I don't think that 4x200 has the least bearing on Paris, to be honest.

This scenario seems to suit Llewellin and Achillios very well, three spaces still available for direct qualification (2 by World Q, 1 by europe champs) in addition to the rankings spot.

Apparently almost the entire team is untapered; the only real issue was qualifying the men's 4 x 100, and even there, James Guy didn't go, Dean barely did, and both Scott and Richards were basically in heavy training. Peaty apparently sort of half tapered, and his team are apparently perfectly happy with where he is, much as Max Litchfield's team are. Clearly the USA have taken an even more relaxed route if that's possible, while Chinese in comparison are absolutely on it. Stephen's gold today was a complete left-fielder, but its interesting her time was more or less the same as last years worlds, when the worlds were the main event of the season. She's clearly capable of more, but she's unlikely to catch Macintosh, lets be honest. The women's 4 x 200, without Anderson, is seriously impressive , especially Wood. And despite the lack of taper/seriousness, they've still got their 4x1 quota, a women's 4x2 free silver which is actually impressive, and notably 4 medals. some of us recall a fully tapered GB scrounging about for 1 bronze not so terribly long ago. Paris will be a whole new level of tough, but quietly I'd say GBR are pretty happy with where they are. Team Ireland, by contrast, are absolutely ecstatic, notwithstanding the relay disappointment.

Really wish the High Dive outdoors, like open water swimming, was in the Games - doesn't seem a wildly expensive venue - a Scaffolding, steps, temporary stand and a reasonably deep temporary pool., yet its a fabulous spectacle, and requires relatively few competitors for a proper competition.

Perhaps the presumably limited funding for Oceanic championships can be better directed to helping such athletes get to the Europeans/Asians/ etc - Depends on numbers and costs.

Seems a little pattern developing actually, where one event stages another from a different part of the world. The European Weightlifting seems to be operating a link with the USA, not dissimilar to the european U23 Aquatics, while the worlds have 'held' the Commonwealths in weightlifting several times by simply drawing out the CW qualified lifters in the standard competition. not the worst idea in the current climate

It's a fair call - a lot of the picks under Pidcock and Finucance are pretty tight, really, and there are several wildcards beyond these who have a puncher's chance - Pfeiffer Georgi, Charlotte Worthington, Kye Whyte, Evie Richards, Katy Marchant

There's no such thing as a certain gold medal, but in order of likelihood, I'd say: Pidcock Finucane (Spr) Archibald+A.N.Other Men's BMX Free Men;s Team Pursuit Archibald (Omn) Women's team Pursuit Men's Madison Women's Team Sprint Women's BMX Racing Men's Omnium Men's TT

Sporting authorities, never change.

Come to think of it, why don't Canada do their bit for world inclusivity and offer to MERGE the 2031 Jeux de Francophonie and 2030 Commonwealth Game into an all-in-one 2030 Friendly Games/Jeux Amicaux ?

Hey, don't knock it, Ireland are an observer member too. The Commonwealth wishes it has this level of certainty for its next two events

How about a repechage system for the relays: 2 heats of six, top 2 qualify for final regardless of times. The bottom 4 in each heat swim a repechage, top 4 qualifying (or be really cruel and have four head to head swim-offs) for the final.