MHSN

oh yes . I was looking at the wrong ranking. he is the 1st reserve and based on previous experiences, we always have at least one or two withdrawals in badminton. even more sometimes. some countries have their own standards.

5 male doubles players are also qualified in mixed doubles. + unused host quota. makes it 40 instead of 34 @intoronto he is the 3rd reserve, he is next after NZL but only because NZL is getting the Oceania quota. some players above him are also eligible to qualify. NGR and POL. but the Nigeria guy will qualify in men's doubles. so Sri Lanka is in fact the 2nd reserve.

I think this is becoming more and more unlikely. all of their 3 weightlifters received the original suspension but it seems Colombia WL federation is making the process longer intentionally by bringing it to CAS. it's a lengthy process, even Vietnam and Romania are not banned yet. (despite having 3 official suspensions) Colombia is hoping to receive that 1 year ban after Tokyo.

not yet but yes that's possible if we remove PRK, Mexico is still 9th (behind ). but he can be in top 8 if Colombia gets suspended or if Japan decides to send someone else or even if any of these guys get injured which is always possible in this sport.

that's extremely weird ! but that's a bad news for Han (and also Jeremy), because Triyatno will grab the Asian quota. assuming PRK really withdraws, GEO will be in top 8 now, the European quota goes to Brandhuber but he is also eligible for 61kg, if he picks 61kg, Hernandez will qualify

also no change for 67kg division in Colombia. only Pineda (GUA) improved his score slightly but that doesn't change his position in the ranking. I think only Jeremy (IND) is still active in the World Juniors. these guys are 100% safe, TUR and UZB may have other options too but I'm 100% sure they will pick these guys. Ergashev (Top 8) Uzbek (Top 8) Zanni (Top 8) Matam (Top 8) Chkheidze (Europe) Munoz (Pan-America) Ioane (Oceania) Andriatsitohaina (Africa) Deni or Triyatno (Top 8 or Asia) @Griff88 which one has more chance ? (Triyatno may qualify at 73 though) I also think CHN and JPN will select these guys Chen Konnai the last 2 spots are between this weight is less complicated. if COL and PRK participate they will take the remaining quotas. if only COL participates the last quota most probably goes to KOR. if both don't participate, KOR and GER will qualify IND can qualify only if KOR doesn't want to use this quota. since they have more than 4 eligible weightlifters and this guy also can qualify at 61kg if he wants.

oh well. no this is still complicated see that's another thing I should consider when I make the list. some of these athletes are banned but their names are still there. she just participated at the Pan American Champs. that should be something very new so that makes the quota almost a sure thing for Montero but if she qualifies in top 8 (which is possible) another Brazilian Luana Madeira will qualify instead.

some minor changes in women's 61kg ranking after this event. only Jensen (DEN) improved her points by something like 150pts but that doesn't help her. other athletes like Michel and Berrio didn't improve their ranking points some of the athletes still can improve their points at the World Juniors. there is a very interesting case about Nina Sterckx (BEL) while she only competed at 55kg and 59kg recently. she registered herself at 49kg for the World Juniors. she doesn't need that, she already participated in an event in that weight. but that means she wants to go to Tokyo at all costs ! I don't know about her chance at 55kg (have to check it later) but in 49kg she has a good chance to steal the quota from the Italians ! I wanted to make a list like I did for the men's weights but that's impossible unless I check all 7 weights for all countries. unfortunately I can't do that. but let's have a short list at least for this weight Mirabai Delacruz Piron Aisah Toua * Piron couldn't qualify under the old rules but now all of a sudden she is 100% safe. still the fact she didn't participate anywhere recently is worrisome .maybe she is injured ?! if Colombia is allowed to participate Berrio is safe. Rosa is almost safe because Romania most probably will be banned, PRK will withdraw. RUS has some other options, if one of them happens, she will qualify so I say that's almost a sure thing. I would say Michel is safe too but Sterckx still can improve her points and then chose to participate in this weight. even if that happens Michel still can qualify another way, so I think her chance is something like 90%.

thanks. that solved one of my million problems to have the final list of qualified weightlifters 109 is the most unpredictable in term of withdrawals. if we rank them by their best totals Hristov is 8th, but Yang is not going to Tokyo. one of the Russians will be out (and maybe even both of them, Russia has 1 quota but I believe they are going to use it here) . Martirosyan was a lock but now after bombing out at the Europeans and the recent accident, not anymore. Aramnau is not in a good shape and from what i heard this is more likely to not select him from Belarus (they have only 1 quota as well) only Akbar Djuraev is a sure thing and most probably will take one of the medals. if you remove these guys. Hristov has to compete with Chumak, Plesnieks, Michalski and Naniev for the bronze and maybe even silver (if Martirosyan doesn't get selected) he definitely has a chance for medal , these guys are more or less in the same level.

that's the main problem but some countries are about to face suspension. Romania, Vietnam are almost a sure thing. Colombia maybe. and we still don't know if PRK participates or not. and some weightlifters may qualify in more than one weight (Brandhuber (GER) and Han (KOR)) we also don't know what they are going to do.

Colombia event didn't make a change in the ranking for 61kg. we had two weightlifters here trying to improve their rankings (from CUB and ESP) but they both failed. from what I saw the African Championships won't make a difference and the only weightlifter in the World Juniors who can make a change is Ruiu (ITA). still it's impossible to make a list of qualified weightlifters, so many variables. but these guys are 100% safe Irawan (Top 8) Mishvelidze (Top 8) Baru (Oceania) Garcia (Pan America) Andriantsitohaina (Africa) I believe these guys will be selected as well Li Itokazu the remaining 6 quotas will be between these countries @Federer91 do you have any idea about two Bulgarian weightlifters in Tokyo ? I see 3 or maybe 4 guys eligible to qualify. Grozdev (61), Andreev (67), Hristov (109) and maybe Beytula (73) ?

thanks. one problem solved technically Iran didn't refuse it. they would probably take it if they had the chance. (simply because 2>1) but two other Iranians finished 2nd in other events. and per rules Iran has to pick between M1X and W1X so that means LM2X: LW2X: M1X: W1X: the last 1X quotas are between Iran and Thailand Kuwait is the only NOC who participated at the AQT and finished the races , yet not qualified for the Olympics

this is what I posted in another thread https://www.jara.or.jp/national/2021/202105007_asian_oceanian_TOKYO2020_qualification.html This link says that Japan select LW2X and M1X Iran has to pick between M1X and W1X, they both finished 2nd and Indonesia has to pick between LM2X and LW2X, they both finished 4th, but they are 3rd actually removing JPN LM2X and IRN LW2X by my count the followings are 100% qualified no matter what LM2X: LW2X: M1X: W1X: it's a sure thing the remaining quotas go for KOR and HKG are 5th in LW2X and LM2X, Indonesia's choice will decide about them too. and whoever doesn't qualify here will take the W1X spot. and Thailand has to wait for Iran's decision. if Iran picks W1X, Thailand will qualify in M1X and vice versa there will be no reallocation unless someone doesn't accept the quota which is unlikely ----------- is this the first time a female Qatari athlete qualifies ? (I mean without wild card)

https://www.jara.or.jp/national/2021/202105007_asian_oceanian_TOKYO2020_qualification.html This link says that Japan select LW2X and M1X now it's up to Indonesia and Iran to make a decision Iran has to pick between M1X and W1X, they both finished 2nd and Indonesia has to pick between LM2X and LW2X, they both finished 4th, but they are 3rd actually removing JPN LM2X and IRN LW2X by my count the followings are 100% qualified no matter what Iran and Indonesia do LM2X: LW2X: M1X: W1X: it's a sure thing the remaining quotas go for KOR and HKG are 5th in LW2X and LM2X, Indonesia's choice will decide about them too. and whoever doesn't qualify here will take the W1X spot. and Thailand has to wait for Iran's decision. if Iran picks W1X, Thailand will qualify in M1X and vice versa

considering the Colombia event and World Juniors start list. by my count these athletes are 100% qualified. 61kg: Irawan Mishvelidze Baru (Oceania) 67kg: Ergashev Zanni Matam Munoz (Pan-America) Ioane (Oceania) 73kg: Cummings Mayora Calja Ben Hnia Wakeling (Oceania) 81kg: Pizzolato Bonnat Rejepov Maurus Suharevs Muller Mata (Europe) McTaggart (Oceania) 96kg: El-Bakh Pliesnoi Santavy Opeloge (Oceania) 109kg: Djuraev Chumak Michalski Plesnieks (at least Europe) Kitts (Pan America) Lydement (Oceania) +109kg: Talakhadze Davoudi Reis Assad Toychyyev Bidani Wilkes (Pan America) Liti (Oceania) ------------------- has to pick 4 from 61, 67, 73, 81, 96 and 109 (no chance for 109) has to pick 2 from 96, 109 and +109 (sure thing). they want 96 but not this guy currently in top 8. has to pick 2 from 61, 73, 109 (and maybe 81) may qualify in 6 weights (all except 81) 61, 73 and 96 are more likely to qualify still alive in all 7 weights! 61, 67 and 73 are almost guaranteed. 96 is more likely to get the last one has to pick 1 from 109 and +109. they have guys high in ranking in other weights too but no chance for them has to pick 1 from 61, 96, 109 and +109. (probably no chance for 61) has to pick 1 from 73, 96, 109 and +109. most likely 109 has to pick 2 and I assumed that will be 67 and 109 since both of them are medal contender

startlist for the Colombia event https://www.iwf.net/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2021/05/START_BOOK_VERIFICACIÓN_FINAL.pdf I have to say this list is NOT final, for example Iran has only one weightlifter traveling to Colombia while 4 are listed here. there is NOBODY from Oceania in the list. so those guys I listed before are qualified for Tokyo if they don't reject the quota

Nakhon Patom in Thailand (instead of China) will host the AVC Beach Continental Cup from 25 to 27 June

Yes I think he is, he is currently 9th. in fact 8th because two Russians are above him. (and we know at least China will be removed from this weight, probably more) on paper it's still possible if bunch of guys lift extraordinary weights in Colombia and surpass him but in reality that's almost impossible. I can say he is 100% safe.

and for women if Toua (49kg) finishes in top 8 which is possible. there is nobody else from Oceania eligible to qualify. there is a girl from Guam but with only 2 events so far she can't complete her 4 events. unless of those 55kg girls cut weight and just participate in Colombia event at 49kg. if nobody from Oceania participates in Colombia event, these guys are going to qualify Yamasaki is leading in two weights but her recent results are at 55kg. 49kg: Toua 55kg: Yamasaki 59kg: Wini 64kg: Elliott 76kg: Signal 87kg: Andrews-Nahu +87kg: Stowers and Hubbard let's see if NZL accepts all these quotas. Hubbard for sure but what about the rest !? -------------- 49kg: 22. Toua - 2603 55kg: 44. Yamasaki - 2015 53. Lifu - 1522 59. Sumagaysay - 1323 59kg: 49. Yamasaki - 2015 51. Wini - 2006 61. Sumagaysay - 1323 63. Lee - 1214 (3 events) 64kg: 36. Elliott - 2546 42. Cochrane - 2300 44. Signal - 2180 72. Abouke - 1265 (4 events but one of them is a zero) 71kg: (no result in Olympic weights) Bakaekiri - 1179 76kg: 30. Signal - 2180 47. Andrews-Nahu - 1643 50. Gorincu - 1584 62. Davies - 1124 (4 events but one of them is a zero) 87kg: 36. Andrews-Nahu - 1643 37. Fassina - 1626 55. Detenamo - 574 +87kg: 12. Stowers - 2225 (most probably in top 8) 17. Hubbard - 1993 18. Sipaia - 1975 19. Amoe Tarrant - 1903

we still don't have the start list for the event in Colombia, but I assume we won't see lots of Oceania athletes there, and since there will be no more event for Oceania athletes, we probably can guess who is going to qualify. none of these guys is registered for the World Juniors. but still nothing is final, for example if Baru just participates at the Colombia event at 67kg he can qualify for the Olympics in that weight because of his 61kg points ! Wakeling is also leading the ranking in both 73 and 81 but he never really participated at 81kg. just registered. so I believe he will participate at 73kg. if nobody from Oceania participates in Colombia event, these guys are going to qualify 61kg: Baru 67kg: Ioane 73kg: Wakeling 81kg: McTaggart 96kg: D. Opeloge 109kg: Lydement +109kg: Liti * weightlifters in bold are 100% safe to qualify (unless their NOC reject the quota) on paper only 61kg and +109kg can qualify in top 8 (very unlikely though) in that case the next athlete from Oceania qualifies. ----------------------------------- and this is the list of all eligible Oceania weightlifters in the men's ranking with a realistic chance to qualify 61kg: 18. Baru - 3001 67kg: 41. Ioane - 2549 44. Katoatau - 2473 60. Moses - 1513 73kg: 46. Wakeling - 2234 48. Tabaroua - 2149 52. Doguape - 1934 61. Aliklik - 1728 81kg: 50. Wakeling - 2234 52. McTaggart - 2133 60. Aliklik - 1728 70. Detudamo - 1434 96kg: 33. D. Opeloge - 3010 63. Baru - 2030 (3 events) 33. Hanai - 1733 (3 events) 102kg: (no result in Olympic weights) D. Katoatau - 1718 109kg: 44. Lydement - 1869 45. Jungblut - 1808 46. Mao - 1754 (4 events but one of them is a zero) 48. Pomelile - 1640 51. Roberts-Young - 1377 (4 events but one of them is a zero) +109kg: 24. Liti - 2797 37. Pomelile - 1640

yes you are right. thanks for correcting me I was wondering why some of them are in green and that was the first thing came to my mind just because I knew few of them are still in the list. I was checking the regulation and those in Green are not going to win a medal. this is just a qualification tournament for them. that's why all athletes in green are in the Olympic list. because otherwise they had no reason to participate here

stat list for the World Junior Championship https://www.iwf.net/e-entry/grid_entry_list/ I assume athletes in Green are still active in the Olympic qualification list. @rybak this is probably surprising for you but Bartlomiej ADAMUS in that world juniors list has a very good chance to qualify for the Olympics. he is currently 34th in the ranking but only 4 weightlifters are between him and the European Quota. and he will surpass all 4 of them if he lifts 371kg (that was his record at the European Championships) actually he only needs 365kg for that. and maybe even 347kg (which is a very very low record) does the job for him if Russia and Albania elect to send different weightlifters (very likely)

I really don't think he is getting weaker. he is still like a tank. as you said that was a huge mistake wrestling at the European Championships so close to this competition. I think most wrestlers who participated at the Europeans failed here. I would consider him as the 3rd dangerous opponent (only behind RUS and ARM) for our wrestler in this weight if he could make it to Tokyo. he just made a mistake against Finland (who is also a very good wrestler, 4th in my list) and tried a wrong tactic here. and I have to mention he had to fight really hard in his first 2 matches that probably also took most of his energy. in short, he was just unlucky (and also made some mistakes) he will be a serious medal contender for the World Championships in Norway.

very impressive quota for Kuosmanen yes he won his QF and SF both 1-1. but I don't think that was intentional. impressive because he was probably 30kg lighter than his opponents. I have to repeat again that he is a 97kg wrestler but since Finland already qualified Savolainen in that weight he had no other option to try his chance at 130kg. this is interesting that both talented Finnish wrestlers are in the same weight !

Omarov should give half of his quotas to him ! he cleaned the way for Omarov by beating Hrabovik and Noumonvi. I think Omarov couldn't beat these guys.