MHSN

1st day summary, they are sorted by their time. LM2X Final A: Final B: LW2X Final A: Final B: M1X SF A/B: 13th place: W1X SF A/B: Final C: -------------------- Japan had the best time in all 4 events. even though we can't compare times from different heats. Iran probably has its best team here but unfortunately the rules will limit Iran to have just 1 boat qualify. I don't think two of them can win the gold here. W1X maybe but the rest looks unlikely. just for fun. it that was the final ranking, I assume Japan would select both LW2X and assumed Iran and Vietnam will pick LW2X LM2X: LW2X: M1X: W1X:

they just removed that from the rules. only participating in Period 1 and 2 is mandatory. Period 3 A and B both could help you to collect more points but that's not mandatory anymore.

IWF Olympic Ranking is now fully updated, they added Pan-Am results too @Griff88you heard the news ? Eko Yuli Irawan is now safe and qualified. I wonder if that changes anything for Li Fabin of China. probably not.

Summary of the day 57kg: absolutely no surprise (which is surprising itself ) these 4 were expected to reach the SF. I still pick Takahashi over the Cuban. but for the bottom half now i have more doubts about the Mongolian. he almost lost to Davidovi (ITA), Edisherashvili wasn't very impressive himself. it will be 50/50. 65kg: as far as I remember this guy Kilicsallayan is ranked #1 or #2 and he always loses ! I have to check some records to see when was the last time he achieved something. he had the dream draw but lost to France despite 8-0 lead ! the French guy himself lost 10-0 to Habat ! and now David Habat only has Greece on his way to the Olympics. it won't be very easy but I expect the American born Habat to qualify Slovenia (maybe for the first time in this sport ?) bottom half was interesting, Bekbulatov failed to make weight (which is unbelievable) Oliver (USA) and Gadzhiev (POL) will wrestle for the quota. Oliver was poor today, he won his matches by the narrowest possible margin. I pick Gadzhiev with his ultra defensive style. he is boring though. also no Olympics for the 2016 Rio Gold medalist Khinchegashvili who was COVID positive, his replacement Lomtadze (a world champion himself) lost to Gadzhiev on cautions. 74kg: oh well Israel in the SF, that's a bad news for our guy in this weight. that's not surprising he had an easy draw, I was expecting Armenia to stop him in the QF but he lost to Greece! still the American guy of Israel will be underdog against Ukraine but that won't be easy and he can qualify. in the bottom half, two Russian wrestlers will fight for the quota, for Slovakia or Belarus. Tsabolov lost to Demirtas and Demirtas himself lost to KadiMagomedov. Salkazanov was my early pick but I'm not sure anymore. I think it will be 50/50. this guy KadiMagomedov is like a snake. very dangerous. 86kg: Baranowski was my early pick and after a poor start, he finished the morning session strongly, now he will face Takatani of Japan who was impressive today (after failing to qualify in the last seconds in Asia) I still pick Baranowski but the today version of Takatani is very dangerous. we had lots of close matches in the bottom half and Makoev managed to beat the Cuban to face Abakarov (AZE) for the quota. my pick was Aminashvili who lost Abakarov, lost lots of points on his own attacks and was in a very bad shape. it will be a close match but I think Makoev has the upper hand. 97kg: I was expecting 3 of these guys to be here and the 4th guy isn't really a surprise. I was expecting more from Baran (POL) but probably wrestling at the European Champs was a bad idea. he had a close match with Saritov, back and forth and finally Saritov scored a very nice 4pts throw for the win. I think Conyedo will be favorite against Bataev. but battle of two grandpas Andiitsev and Saritov is a little hard to predict. I pick Saritov but Andriitsev looked really good today. how old is he anyway? he looks 50 but a fresh 50 125kg: Kozyrev won the early final against Baran, at some point it looked like the Polish guy is going to win but then Kozyrev changed gear in the 2nd period and won the match 7-1. I think Ligeti will be too easy for him. bottom half was wide open and now we have IND and VEN wrestling for the quota ! Diaz (VEN) beat Azerbaijan 3-3 and Sumit of India had to come back from behind 3 times to reach here. he won his first 2 matches 2-2 while scoring the winning point in last few seconds. I think it will be close but the Indian is slightly the favorite. both guys are fat but very strong.

Umarpashaev executed exactly the same technique (he did few weeks ago in Hungary) on Salkazanov and scored 4. but then ran out of gas to lose it 6-4.

after the first round, still no big surprise but I have to say both Polish wrestlers I was expecting to qualify were disappointing despite the win and it seems we have lots of American-born wrestlers in the competition, for Italy, San Marino, Israel, Lebanon. Puerto Rico, Colombia etc. some of them aren't necessarily good.

and finally quota for in the men's K1-1000. also easily wins the men's C1-1000

wins men's K1-200 quota wins the women's K1-200 race but I think the quota goes to the runners-up ! in case there will be reallocation finished 3rd surprisingly wins the women's C1-200 quota !!!! it seems putting everybody else in jail (strict quarantine rules for non-Thai athletes) for 2 weeks worked well for the host finally.

I think this is not related to the new change. actually these changes give her a new life. she was out of the Olympics with the old rules ! it seems she went to the European Championships but for whatever reason didn't participate, probably didn't know just going to the event as a tourist is not enough lol and she has to register and make weight. (then you can withdraw) under the old rules it was mandatory to participate in at least one event in 2021 and she missed her only chance. but now with the new rules. that's not mandatory anymore.

that's interesting, I didn't know you have to participate at your continental Champs to be able to go to the worlds. I think it's something about the doping control, I mean you have to pass certain amount of tests to be eligible. it's not about participating or not. (of course I might be wrong) but this is the Olympics, if they count those points he will qualify instead of someone else and that "someone else" is going to take it to the court. because this is clearly violating the rules. PS: do you know who will be that "someone else" in case Rostami jumps in top 8 ? Brazil (because in that case Cuba will be out of top 8 and will occupy the continental quota) even though I just heard some news that Belarus is not sure about "not using" 96kg for their only quota. BUT with this new change, 3 other Iranian weightlifters are already ahead of Rostami and Moradi, I know Iranian coaches are "thinking" about it in case those 2 can't make it. isn't this funny ? this is the weirdest qualification system ever. Rostami and Moradi (both Olympic Champions) tried really hard to qualify and they are still losing to 3 guys who didn't even try to qualify and another note. with this new change, North Korea can still qualify lots of weightlifters for Tokyo, in case the big Kim changes his mind later.

and Greco 60kg: balanced draw, Ivo Angelov at home is probably the biggest favorite from the top half even though I was expecting Bulgaria to enter the young Nazaryan. after a bye he has to win 3 tough matches to qualify. Lizatovic (CRO), Chkhartishvili (GEO) and then most probably Ciobanu (MDA) even though Ciobanu has to beat Hungary first. a month I would pick Ciobanu but he was disappointing recently, I pick BUL even though Angelov can lose to any of these guys. we have some big names in the bottom half as well, ARM, AZE, BLR and KOR are favorites here. interestingly Azerbaijan is trusting Mammadov again after what happened in Hungary. Mammadov has to beat Olympic bronze medalist Berge in the first round. I also like to give a very small chance to Montano of Ecuador. he is good sometimes. that new Korean guy is also very dangerous but I pick World U23 Champion from Armenia. my picks: and 67kg: in a rare situation we have a tougher top half. we have POL KAZ, KGZ, NOR, ARM and TUR in the top half. Sahakyan has two "easy" matches before facing the winner of Kebispayev-Basar. he was disappointing at the European QT but I'm going to give him another chance lol former European Champion Thoresen was also terrible there. he will face Aslanyan (ARM) first. also don't forget Ismailov (KGZ) he makes surprises sometimes. we have a very interesting name in the bottom half, Rasul Chunayev! I didn't hear about him for a while. I'm not sure if he is in shape but if he is fit he is surely the favorite. but his draw is not that easy he has to start with Islomov (MDA) then Dimitriv (BUL) and next is UKR for him. I know he is cutting a lot for 67kg, not sure if his body can handle 3 not-so-easy matches. from the last quarter it will be BLR or JPN but I think whoever survives from the 3rd Q will win the SF too. my picks: and 77kg: two biggest names here are both in the top half, Kim and Nemes! this is a nightmare draw for Kim, he will start with Rafig Huseynov (AZE) and then guess who ? the Indian guy who destroyed him at the Asian QT. Nemes will have two "easy" matches before facing BLR or UKR in the Quarters. I believe he will find his way into the SF, most probably against Kim. this will be a hell of a match but I think Nemes will 1-1 his way into the Olympics lol but watch out for Gurpreet. this guy can make everybody tired you have to score big on him early otherwise even Nemes will have hard time against his cardio. Ait Mnatsakanian was really impressive in Hungary and he is wrestling at home. so he is my pick from the bottom half. but it won't be easy for him. first round will be crucial against a dangerous Moldovan. next is POL and then probably GEO for him. you never can underestimate Georgia in Greco-Roman. I think Cengiz (TUR) will be in the SF from the last quarter against probably BUL or GEO. my picks: and 87kg: this is where Iran and Russia try to complete their Greco teams and unfortunately they have to beat each other! we also have the European Champion Datunashvili (SRB) in this half. and I think one of these 3 guys will qualify. Chakvetadze is the clear favorite here as the Olympic Champion. honestly I don't have much hope for our "new guy". Chakvetadze has a bye and then two "easy" matches to reach the SF to probably face the winner of IRN-SRB. Basar (TUR) and Shahinyan (ARM) are the biggest names in the bottom half. tough draw for the Armenian. he will face the winner of BUL-SWE (both of them are good) in the 2nd round before facing Basar. I think the winner of that ARM-TUR match will qualify at the end. but I also give a slim chance to the winner of POL-CRO match in the 3rd quarter. whoever wins that match most probably will advance to the SF and Huklek (CRO) once created lots of problems for Shahinyan. so that's not impossible. my picks: and 97kg: Nikoloz (ITA) is the clear favorite here, the draw is not that easy though. I think he can handle the Azeri guy. Baldauf can be tough in the QF. Szoke (HUN) has a relatively easier path to the SF to face Nikoloz. I think the Italian will finally make it but he wrestled at the European Champs few days ago. maybe that helps his opponents here. the bottom half is wide open, BLR, GER, FRA and maybe UKR or CZE are the favorites. Peter Ohler (GER) used to be good but I didn't watch him for a while. my picks: and 130kg: there is no real favorite here so I make it quick. I think 5 guys are "capable" of that in the top half. ROU, AZE, POL, CRO and maybe NOR. in the bottom half I'm more interested to see the talented guy from Finland, he is a 97kg wrestler but since another talented guy from Finland qualified that weight he has no other option to try his chance here. and I really think he has a chance. UKR, ARM, HUN and USA are the biggest obstacles ahead of him. but he only has to beat one of them (of course after beating BUL which won't be easy) my picks: and

Guys, do you know there is no "draw" in taekwondo ? you can already predict the brackets (if the start list is complete), the whole thing is based on the world ranking.

OK let's take a look at the draws, freestyle first 57kg: I see 3 big favorites in the top half, Takahashi, Andreu and Andreyev ! I think Takahashi will have a better chance becuse he has only one tough match ahead of him. while the winner of CUB/BLR in the first round still has to go through KGZ. I think Japan and Cuba will wrestle for the quota at the end. I believe first round match between two Georgian wrestlers (one of them is now wrestling for AZE) will be the key. Bekhbayar from MGL was impressive before but I wonder why they used another guy at the Asian QT !? is he not in shape ? there are some other good wrestlers in the bottom half, UKR, ITA, TJK. even KOR. but I think at the end it will be between AZE and MGL my picks: and 65kg: unbelievable draw! if I had to name 5 favorite wrestlers, all of them are in the bottom half ! Kilicsallayan has the draw of his life, he is not that great himself but I really don't see anybody callenging him for the quota. maybe Habat, or Semisorow or Mukhtarov. but wow, bottom half is really hard, Oliver, Bekbulatov, Gadzhiev. Georgia had to send Lomtadze (World Champion at 61kg) since Khincheghasvhili tested positive for COVID, Ukraine is also in the bottom half and I have to add Belarus, he is very dangerous as well. but I think it will be between UZB, POL and USA. Bekbulatov and Oliver will wrestle in the 2nd round. Gadhziev will face Skriabin (BLR) in the 2nd round. my picks: and 74kg: another very one-sided draw. there are some "good wrestlers" in the top half but all favorites are in the bottom side. KOR, ISR, HUN, UKR, GRE, ARM they all will have a chance in the top half. HUN has a first round bye and an easy second round. which will give him an advantage. but what about the bottom half ? Demirtas, Salkazanov, Kadimagomedov, Tsabolov. Budazhapov and Umarpashaev, I believe one of them will qualify. Kadimagomedov has to beat another Russian born wrestler in Budazahpov in the first round. Salkazanov has a better road to the SF, he will only face Umaspashaev in the QF, the guy who pinned him in Hungary, I think that won't happen again. I will pick Salkazanov just because he has easier 1st and 2nd round matches but we have to wait and see if he is still in a good shape only couple weeks after the European Champs. my picks: and 86kg: this is a weak weight in general, lots of good guys here. it's really hard to pick favorites. top half looks easier, I think ESP and POL will have a better chance here, maybe JPN or HUN the biggest question in bottom half is about,Aminashvili, he was good in Euro but is he ready now ? we also have AZE, BUL, CUB, GER, SVK and MDA. even UKR. I go with GEO but this will be very close between those guys. my picks: and 97kg: there are only 3 good wrestlers in the top half, ITA, GER and BUL. Thiele was very good at the European QT, his first round match vs Conyedo is like a final. the winner will wrestle Bataev in the semifinal. I give chance to 3 wrestlers here, UKR, POL and ROU. Baran did great at home during the European Champs but is he still ready ? he is stronger than Saritov but Saritov is like a snake and can score from any position. my pick here depends on these guys shape. Andiitsev didn't wrestle much recently. he is an Olympic medalist but 9 years ago. so for me it's between Poland and Romania. I consider that 50/50 my picks: and 125kg: I think the QF between Kozyrev and Baran will decide the top half. Kozyrev is new to the senior level and is beatable. but still he is Russian and they are always the favorite ! the bottom half is wide open, there is no favorite. lots of below average guys. the Azerbaijani guy is probably Russian so I pick him but I don't know much about him. maybe Aiaal Lazarev surprises him. my picks: and

the biggest question is, is he in the same shape as he was during the European Championship ? if yes he is the favorite but I'm not sure about that. I don't know if he cuts weight. that's a very important factor.

which Baran ? they will have a TOUGH job that's for sure but this is not over yet. I will write a detailed post about the freestyle draw soon

How the hell they could make such a BIG change at this point ? the worst part is "subject to participation in one (1) event in the same Olympic category" which means lots of weightlifters who can't qualify in their own weights can easily qualify in another weight just to have "fun" in Tokyo and deny someone else's right to participate btw all of my calculations mean nothing now this will help some of Iranian weightlifters but doesn't help those who matter. Moradi and Rostami are still out. (Rostami is a jerk though)

wow, 65kg and 74kg look unbalanced in a very unfair way ! I will write more about it later tonight but almost all favorites are in the bottom half for both weights.

So.tough draw for our only wrestler here, he has to beat Datunashvili and Chakvetadze for the quota. Sounds unlikely Iran or Russia (or maybe both of them) will have incomplete team in Tokyo

I see some minor changes in the startlist for tomorrow. China pulled out of both K1 events, I think per rules you can't qualify more than 2 athletes in one discipline. the rules also says one NOC can't win both 200m and 1000m quotas for one discipline. which means Kazakhstan can't win Men's C1-1000m, Women's C1-200m and Women's K1-200m quotas. even though they are in the start list. here is the eligible athletes for the remaining events Men's K1 200: (10) Men's K1 1000: (10) Men's C1 1000: (8-1) (Not eligible: ) Women's K1 200: (9-1) (Not eligible: ) Women's C1 200: (6-1) (Not eligible: )

Startlist for the European Championship https://www.sportdata.org/wkf/set-online/veranstaltung_info_main.php?active_menu=calendar&vernr=473&ver_info_action=catnennlist#a_eventheadend for those who care Ugur Aktas is listed for Turkey (even though it was almost a sure thing he is going to participate)

I wonder how many Iranians are going to participate in the European Olympic Qualifier I think there were 11 of them at the European Championships. I wish good luck for those who are at least representing a country specially Khodabakhshi, and hopefully none of those fake refugees steal a rightful quota from the European athletes.

two more quotas Women's K1-500 ==> Men's K2-1000 ==> at least China beat Kazakhstan by a hair in the Men's K2 final to prevent team from winning all the quotas today. the women's K1-500 winner Natalya Sergeyeva is 45 years old !

Kazakhstan wins both C2 quotas, Men's C2 1000 and Women's C2 500 they had a very close race with Japan in MC2-1000, they also beat the favorite Indonesia in the women's race.

Kianoush Rostami claims he was told by IWF high rank officials (to be accurate IWF general secretory) that they may count his ranking points from Switzerland event from the second window ! in case you don't know the story, he only registered for one event for the 2nd qualification window and he bombed out at the 2019 Worlds. when he found out what a dumb mistake he did he had no time to register in any other competition before the end of the 2nd window . there was only one event left in the IWF calendar in Switzerland, despite not registering for the competition, he traveled to Switzerland and the organizers let him lift the weights but didn't award him the medal and his results were unofficial. if they count that result he will qualify easily. but I highly doubt it. this is clearly breaking the rules.