MHSN

wins men's K1-200 quota wins the women's K1-200 race but I think the quota goes to the runners-up ! in case there will be reallocation finished 3rd surprisingly wins the women's C1-200 quota !!!! it seems putting everybody else in jail (strict quarantine rules for non-Thai athletes) for 2 weeks worked well for the host finally.

I think this is not related to the new change. actually these changes give her a new life. she was out of the Olympics with the old rules ! it seems she went to the European Championships but for whatever reason didn't participate, probably didn't know just going to the event as a tourist is not enough lol and she has to register and make weight. (then you can withdraw) under the old rules it was mandatory to participate in at least one event in 2021 and she missed her only chance. but now with the new rules. that's not mandatory anymore.

that's interesting, I didn't know you have to participate at your continental Champs to be able to go to the worlds. I think it's something about the doping control, I mean you have to pass certain amount of tests to be eligible. it's not about participating or not. (of course I might be wrong) but this is the Olympics, if they count those points he will qualify instead of someone else and that "someone else" is going to take it to the court. because this is clearly violating the rules. PS: do you know who will be that "someone else" in case Rostami jumps in top 8 ? Brazil (because in that case Cuba will be out of top 8 and will occupy the continental quota) even though I just heard some news that Belarus is not sure about "not using" 96kg for their only quota. BUT with this new change, 3 other Iranian weightlifters are already ahead of Rostami and Moradi, I know Iranian coaches are "thinking" about it in case those 2 can't make it. isn't this funny ? this is the weirdest qualification system ever. Rostami and Moradi (both Olympic Champions) tried really hard to qualify and they are still losing to 3 guys who didn't even try to qualify and another note. with this new change, North Korea can still qualify lots of weightlifters for Tokyo, in case the big Kim changes his mind later.

and Greco 60kg: balanced draw, Ivo Angelov at home is probably the biggest favorite from the top half even though I was expecting Bulgaria to enter the young Nazaryan. after a bye he has to win 3 tough matches to qualify. Lizatovic (CRO), Chkhartishvili (GEO) and then most probably Ciobanu (MDA) even though Ciobanu has to beat Hungary first. a month I would pick Ciobanu but he was disappointing recently, I pick BUL even though Angelov can lose to any of these guys. we have some big names in the bottom half as well, ARM, AZE, BLR and KOR are favorites here. interestingly Azerbaijan is trusting Mammadov again after what happened in Hungary. Mammadov has to beat Olympic bronze medalist Berge in the first round. I also like to give a very small chance to Montano of Ecuador. he is good sometimes. that new Korean guy is also very dangerous but I pick World U23 Champion from Armenia. my picks: and 67kg: in a rare situation we have a tougher top half. we have POL KAZ, KGZ, NOR, ARM and TUR in the top half. Sahakyan has two "easy" matches before facing the winner of Kebispayev-Basar. he was disappointing at the European QT but I'm going to give him another chance lol former European Champion Thoresen was also terrible there. he will face Aslanyan (ARM) first. also don't forget Ismailov (KGZ) he makes surprises sometimes. we have a very interesting name in the bottom half, Rasul Chunayev! I didn't hear about him for a while. I'm not sure if he is in shape but if he is fit he is surely the favorite. but his draw is not that easy he has to start with Islomov (MDA) then Dimitriv (BUL) and next is UKR for him. I know he is cutting a lot for 67kg, not sure if his body can handle 3 not-so-easy matches. from the last quarter it will be BLR or JPN but I think whoever survives from the 3rd Q will win the SF too. my picks: and 77kg: two biggest names here are both in the top half, Kim and Nemes! this is a nightmare draw for Kim, he will start with Rafig Huseynov (AZE) and then guess who ? the Indian guy who destroyed him at the Asian QT. Nemes will have two "easy" matches before facing BLR or UKR in the Quarters. I believe he will find his way into the SF, most probably against Kim. this will be a hell of a match but I think Nemes will 1-1 his way into the Olympics lol but watch out for Gurpreet. this guy can make everybody tired you have to score big on him early otherwise even Nemes will have hard time against his cardio. Ait Mnatsakanian was really impressive in Hungary and he is wrestling at home. so he is my pick from the bottom half. but it won't be easy for him. first round will be crucial against a dangerous Moldovan. next is POL and then probably GEO for him. you never can underestimate Georgia in Greco-Roman. I think Cengiz (TUR) will be in the SF from the last quarter against probably BUL or GEO. my picks: and 87kg: this is where Iran and Russia try to complete their Greco teams and unfortunately they have to beat each other! we also have the European Champion Datunashvili (SRB) in this half. and I think one of these 3 guys will qualify. Chakvetadze is the clear favorite here as the Olympic Champion. honestly I don't have much hope for our "new guy". Chakvetadze has a bye and then two "easy" matches to reach the SF to probably face the winner of IRN-SRB. Basar (TUR) and Shahinyan (ARM) are the biggest names in the bottom half. tough draw for the Armenian. he will face the winner of BUL-SWE (both of them are good) in the 2nd round before facing Basar. I think the winner of that ARM-TUR match will qualify at the end. but I also give a slim chance to the winner of POL-CRO match in the 3rd quarter. whoever wins that match most probably will advance to the SF and Huklek (CRO) once created lots of problems for Shahinyan. so that's not impossible. my picks: and 97kg: Nikoloz (ITA) is the clear favorite here, the draw is not that easy though. I think he can handle the Azeri guy. Baldauf can be tough in the QF. Szoke (HUN) has a relatively easier path to the SF to face Nikoloz. I think the Italian will finally make it but he wrestled at the European Champs few days ago. maybe that helps his opponents here. the bottom half is wide open, BLR, GER, FRA and maybe UKR or CZE are the favorites. Peter Ohler (GER) used to be good but I didn't watch him for a while. my picks: and 130kg: there is no real favorite here so I make it quick. I think 5 guys are "capable" of that in the top half. ROU, AZE, POL, CRO and maybe NOR. in the bottom half I'm more interested to see the talented guy from Finland, he is a 97kg wrestler but since another talented guy from Finland qualified that weight he has no other option to try his chance here. and I really think he has a chance. UKR, ARM, HUN and USA are the biggest obstacles ahead of him. but he only has to beat one of them (of course after beating BUL which won't be easy) my picks: and

Guys, do you know there is no "draw" in taekwondo ? you can already predict the brackets (if the start list is complete), the whole thing is based on the world ranking.

OK let's take a look at the draws, freestyle first 57kg: I see 3 big favorites in the top half, Takahashi, Andreu and Andreyev ! I think Takahashi will have a better chance becuse he has only one tough match ahead of him. while the winner of CUB/BLR in the first round still has to go through KGZ. I think Japan and Cuba will wrestle for the quota at the end. I believe first round match between two Georgian wrestlers (one of them is now wrestling for AZE) will be the key. Bekhbayar from MGL was impressive before but I wonder why they used another guy at the Asian QT !? is he not in shape ? there are some other good wrestlers in the bottom half, UKR, ITA, TJK. even KOR. but I think at the end it will be between AZE and MGL my picks: and 65kg: unbelievable draw! if I had to name 5 favorite wrestlers, all of them are in the bottom half ! Kilicsallayan has the draw of his life, he is not that great himself but I really don't see anybody callenging him for the quota. maybe Habat, or Semisorow or Mukhtarov. but wow, bottom half is really hard, Oliver, Bekbulatov, Gadzhiev. Georgia had to send Lomtadze (World Champion at 61kg) since Khincheghasvhili tested positive for COVID, Ukraine is also in the bottom half and I have to add Belarus, he is very dangerous as well. but I think it will be between UZB, POL and USA. Bekbulatov and Oliver will wrestle in the 2nd round. Gadhziev will face Skriabin (BLR) in the 2nd round. my picks: and 74kg: another very one-sided draw. there are some "good wrestlers" in the top half but all favorites are in the bottom side. KOR, ISR, HUN, UKR, GRE, ARM they all will have a chance in the top half. HUN has a first round bye and an easy second round. which will give him an advantage. but what about the bottom half ? Demirtas, Salkazanov, Kadimagomedov, Tsabolov. Budazhapov and Umarpashaev, I believe one of them will qualify. Kadimagomedov has to beat another Russian born wrestler in Budazahpov in the first round. Salkazanov has a better road to the SF, he will only face Umaspashaev in the QF, the guy who pinned him in Hungary, I think that won't happen again. I will pick Salkazanov just because he has easier 1st and 2nd round matches but we have to wait and see if he is still in a good shape only couple weeks after the European Champs. my picks: and 86kg: this is a weak weight in general, lots of good guys here. it's really hard to pick favorites. top half looks easier, I think ESP and POL will have a better chance here, maybe JPN or HUN the biggest question in bottom half is about,Aminashvili, he was good in Euro but is he ready now ? we also have AZE, BUL, CUB, GER, SVK and MDA. even UKR. I go with GEO but this will be very close between those guys. my picks: and 97kg: there are only 3 good wrestlers in the top half, ITA, GER and BUL. Thiele was very good at the European QT, his first round match vs Conyedo is like a final. the winner will wrestle Bataev in the semifinal. I give chance to 3 wrestlers here, UKR, POL and ROU. Baran did great at home during the European Champs but is he still ready ? he is stronger than Saritov but Saritov is like a snake and can score from any position. my pick here depends on these guys shape. Andiitsev didn't wrestle much recently. he is an Olympic medalist but 9 years ago. so for me it's between Poland and Romania. I consider that 50/50 my picks: and 125kg: I think the QF between Kozyrev and Baran will decide the top half. Kozyrev is new to the senior level and is beatable. but still he is Russian and they are always the favorite ! the bottom half is wide open, there is no favorite. lots of below average guys. the Azerbaijani guy is probably Russian so I pick him but I don't know much about him. maybe Aiaal Lazarev surprises him. my picks: and

the biggest question is, is he in the same shape as he was during the European Championship ? if yes he is the favorite but I'm not sure about that. I don't know if he cuts weight. that's a very important factor.

which Baran ? they will have a TOUGH job that's for sure but this is not over yet. I will write a detailed post about the freestyle draw soon

How the hell they could make such a BIG change at this point ? the worst part is "subject to participation in one (1) event in the same Olympic category" which means lots of weightlifters who can't qualify in their own weights can easily qualify in another weight just to have "fun" in Tokyo and deny someone else's right to participate btw all of my calculations mean nothing now this will help some of Iranian weightlifters but doesn't help those who matter. Moradi and Rostami are still out. (Rostami is a jerk though)

wow, 65kg and 74kg look unbalanced in a very unfair way ! I will write more about it later tonight but almost all favorites are in the bottom half for both weights.

So.tough draw for our only wrestler here, he has to beat Datunashvili and Chakvetadze for the quota. Sounds unlikely Iran or Russia (or maybe both of them) will have incomplete team in Tokyo

I see some minor changes in the startlist for tomorrow. China pulled out of both K1 events, I think per rules you can't qualify more than 2 athletes in one discipline. the rules also says one NOC can't win both 200m and 1000m quotas for one discipline. which means Kazakhstan can't win Men's C1-1000m, Women's C1-200m and Women's K1-200m quotas. even though they are in the start list. here is the eligible athletes for the remaining events Men's K1 200: (10) Men's K1 1000: (10) Men's C1 1000: (8-1) (Not eligible: ) Women's K1 200: (9-1) (Not eligible: ) Women's C1 200: (6-1) (Not eligible: )

Startlist for the European Championship https://www.sportdata.org/wkf/set-online/veranstaltung_info_main.php?active_menu=calendar&vernr=473&ver_info_action=catnennlist#a_eventheadend for those who care Ugur Aktas is listed for Turkey (even though it was almost a sure thing he is going to participate)

I wonder how many Iranians are going to participate in the European Olympic Qualifier I think there were 11 of them at the European Championships. I wish good luck for those who are at least representing a country specially Khodabakhshi, and hopefully none of those fake refugees steal a rightful quota from the European athletes.

two more quotas Women's K1-500 ==> Men's K2-1000 ==> at least China beat Kazakhstan by a hair in the Men's K2 final to prevent team from winning all the quotas today. the women's K1-500 winner Natalya Sergeyeva is 45 years old !

Kazakhstan wins both C2 quotas, Men's C2 1000 and Women's C2 500 they had a very close race with Japan in MC2-1000, they also beat the favorite Indonesia in the women's race.

Kianoush Rostami claims he was told by IWF high rank officials (to be accurate IWF general secretory) that they may count his ranking points from Switzerland event from the second window ! in case you don't know the story, he only registered for one event for the 2nd qualification window and he bombed out at the 2019 Worlds. when he found out what a dumb mistake he did he had no time to register in any other competition before the end of the 2nd window . there was only one event left in the IWF calendar in Switzerland, despite not registering for the competition, he traveled to Switzerland and the organizers let him lift the weights but didn't award him the medal and his results were unofficial. if they count that result he will qualify easily. but I highly doubt it. this is clearly breaking the rules.

we have only one wrestler here, I have to admit before the start of the qualification process I would be happy with 10 quotas since I knew we are weak in some weights. but our freestyle team managed to continue the tradition of having a complete team at the Olympics and we somehow have 11 quotas already. interestingly 87kg Greco was one of the "safest" weights in my mind. Ramin Taheri lost 1-1 in 2019 Worlds Quarterfinal, he could win the match if the officiating was "fair", then again Hossein Nouri lost the Asian Qualifier semifinal 4-4 despite leading comfortably 4-0 until the last 30 seconds. I mean they were VERY CLOSE twice before. this time we are bringing a youngster Nasser Alizadeh. personally I don't have high hopes about him but we will see. 11 out of 12 in men's wrestling is still a good result. specially if Russia also fails to complete its team here

that's top secret https://totallympics.com/topic/982-wrestling-qualification-to-tokyo-2020-summer-olympic-games/page/16/?tab=comments#comment-362257

Start list for the heats tomorrow https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/20210505_startbyrace01-1.pdf Live stream

absolutely nothing

he may qualify without doing anything, South Korea has more than 4 eligible athletes to qualify. it's not a sure thing if they pick this guy. (likely but not a sure thing) but if he participates in Junior Worlds he needs 322kg. that's 20kg higher than what he lifted in Uzbekistan. almost impossible to improve like that in such a short time.

and still didn't fix it for men's +75kg but I assume they will fix it soon. and about Aktas, I have to say there is no fixed score for 5th place finishers. it depends on the number of matches you won. for example if you lose the semifinal (and then the bronze medal match) you will receive more points if you lose the 1st round and then advance to the repechage later. (and still finish 5th) by my calculations Aktas will finish 1st in the ranking if he finishes 5th in Croatia. but maybe even a 7th place finish will do that too. but one thing is for sure, he has to at least advances to the repechage for that.

start list per event https://results.imas-sport.com/imas/regatta.php?competition=wettkampf_237#race_15 Men's K1 200: (11) Men's K1 1000: (11) Men's K2 1000: (9) Men's C1 1000: (8) Men's C2 1000: (7) Women's K1 200: (9) Women's K1 500: (9) Women's C1 200: (5) Women's C2 500: (4) 4 events will be decided tomorrow, the rest on Thursday

looking at the updated +61kg ranking, I wonder why they are showing Feryal Abdelaziz in green and not Gong Li !? I assume that's just a mistake they are also showing Poursheib in Green and not Ganjzadeh, which is a mistake. If we consider the current ranking, I mean without removing the 2019 Euro results. here is the simulation of those for the continental quotas. Men: Oceania: Yahiro (75kg) Africa: Abdelaziz (75kg) Pan-Am: Irr (+75kg) (Scott at 75kg is before him) Asia: Yuldashev (+75kg) (Ainazarov at 75kg is before him) Europe: Kalnins (67kg) (if Kvesic doesn't qualify he will be ahead of Kalnins but at +75kg which is not available) Women: Oceania: Anacan (Kata) Africa: Abdelaziz (+61kg) (they show her in green but that's a mistake, next after her is Sadini at 61kg) Pan-Am: Grande (61kg) Asia: Alipour (61kg) (Gong Li in case she doesn't qualify directly) Europe: Plank (55kg) (Plank will lose the spot if she doesn't defend her silver medal from 2019 Euro) Extra: the last athlete for Africa shouldn't be from Egypt, the best ranked athlete among all 8 events Africa: El Hakimi (Men's Kata) (Sadini at women's 61kg is ahead of him) if the African athlete is a male, the last Pan-Am quota will go to the best female Pan-Am gold medalist Pan-Am: Kumizaki (55kg) ---------- I have to repeat only first 2 male and first 2 female athletes in the list are guaranteed a place in Tokyo no matter what they do in Paris, means Yahiro, Anacan and both Abdelaziz. they are first in the ladder and will qualify 100%. for the rest it depends on these guys results. if they qualify directly that will change the rest of the ladder like a domino. and the European Championship can change this list but I assume it won't make a huge change for non-European quotas.